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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

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Childlike Empress said:
We are absolutely sure that they are liars not to be trusted. Larry C. Johnson has a good take on the drivel the liar you have to pay for put out. Ends like this:
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Thanks for confirming the Ruscist murderers are running out of men and material and that Ukraine is surely gaining the upper hand :)
 
Malcolm Nance yesterday morning said the US plans to send more HIMARS to Ukraine to bring the total to 50.
 
jimbob said:
HIMARS looks to be having an effect

from the NASA FIRMS data, for example the images here

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-16

it looks like HIMARS has reduced Russian artillery fire significantly.

Meanwhile Poland is ordering 500 HIMARS. Which would be pretty problematic for any attempted Russian invasion.
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And if the war is still going on when they start arriving, many of them will undoubtedly get "lost" near the border with Ukraine. :D
 
jimbob said:
HIMARS looks to be having an effect

from the NASA FIRMS data, for example the images here

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-16

it looks like HIMARS has reduced Russian artillery fire significantly.

Meanwhile Poland is ordering 500 HIMARS. Which would be pretty problematic for any attempted Russian invasion.
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I've been looking for that information up to date. The amount of artillery fire has fallen dramatically.
 
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUnc496-PPmFZVKlYxUnToA/videos

Not sure of the quality of this source yet. The guy is in Belorussia and does daily updates. Gets into why some efforts are not working so well for Russia. But also states things like 12 missiles fired from HIMARS getting shot down by S-400 missiles.

At the very least this is a not over the top version from the east that makes it a bit better than most.
 
Doubt said:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUnc496-PPmFZVKlYxUnToA/videos

Not sure of the quality of this source yet. The guy is in Belorussia and does daily updates. Gets into why some efforts are not working so well for Russia. But also states things like 12 missiles fired from HIMARS getting shot down by S-400 missiles.

At the very least this is a not over the top version from the east that makes it a bit better than most.
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I would love to see the hops the information takes, getting from the air defense crews onto this guy's blog.
 
theprestige said:
I'm pretty sure that the sites that track artillery fires aren't tracking literal blazes of flammable material and attributing them to artillery strikes.
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The one I linked to

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.go...rs,viirs,modis_a,modis_t,street;@36.5,47.4,7z

was literally the NASA FIRMS mapping website.

Its description is

  • Red squares show satellite derived thermal anomalies which may be from fire, hot smoke, agriculture or other sources.
  • The size of the red squares represent an approximate 1km x 1km pixel for MODIS data and 375m x 375m pixel for VIIRS.
  • Detected activity could be a small, intense fire or a fire burning over a broader area within the pixel. It does not mean the entire square is entirely on fire.
  • What does a fire detection mean on the ground?
  • The spatial resolution, satellite view geometry and detection confidence available as attributes for each detection/hotspot should be considered when using these data.
  • Due to their relatively coarse spatial resolution and technical considerations inherent to satellite-derived data, they should be applied carefully at relatively local scales.
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and further information here

https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/faq/firms-faq#ed-fire-on-ground

but my understanding is that yes, they're literally looking at fires (or thermal anomalies) caused by artillery strikes.

ETA: here is a comparison of earlier data

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d:2022-06-21..2022-06-22;l:noaa20-viirs,viirs,modis_a,modis_t,street;@37.2,48.2,7z June 22 2022

vs July 22, 2022

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d:2022-07-21..2022-07-22;l:noaa20-viirs,viirs,modis_a,modis_t,street;@37.2,48.2,7z

ETA: by the start of June the fires look to be matching the fighting on the Eastern Front
 
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timhau said:
They kind of have to. Given the rate at which the Russians are destroying them, that will just about bring the total to zero.
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Oh, well played (sir?/ma'am?). Golf applause.
 
jimbob said:
... my understanding is that yes, they're literally looking at fires (or thermal anomalies) caused by artillery strikes.
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If you drag the map to look at Africa it looks as if armageddon has broken out in Southern DR Congo and Angola. So it may well be spotting fires set by artillery strikes but ordinary fires get spotted too.
 
jimbob said:
The one I linked to

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.go...rs,viirs,modis_a,modis_t,street;@36.5,47.4,7z

was literally the NASA FIRMS mapping website.

Its description is



and further information here

https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/faq/firms-faq#ed-fire-on-ground

but my understanding is that yes, they're literally looking at fires (or thermal anomalies) caused by artillery strikes.

ETA: here is a comparison of earlier data

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d:2022-06-21..2022-06-22;l:noaa20-viirs,viirs,modis_a,modis_t,street;@37.2,48.2,7z June 22 2022

vs July 22, 2022

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d:2022-07-21..2022-07-22;l:noaa20-viirs,viirs,modis_a,modis_t,street;@37.2,48.2,7z

ETA: by the start of June the fires look to be matching the fighting on the Eastern Front
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We'd expect there to be more fires where there's heavy fighting. But NASA isn't looking at artillery strikes. They're just looking at heat sources around the globe. You're *inferring* that some of those heat sources are from artillery strikes.

Which makes sense. I had just (naively) assumed that someone - other than NASA - was using radar data or similar to track actual artillery fire missions.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
So how much extra would the technology to make one missile follow another be? why not just give them all the gps guidance?
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Dumb missiles are cheaper than smart, although I confess: damfino why anybody would fire unguided ordnance in this day and age, and hang the cost.

But a dim missile that homes on a signal from a smarter one (or on a laser beam or, reverting to WW2 methods, a flare) will cost less than a missile carrying specialized and hardened guidance electronics.

An anecdote: A generation ago, when air forces still dropped dumb bombs a lot of the time, I had my little idea for dim bombs, ordnance wearing guidance kits but only enough electronics to home on a radio beam, laser, or flare, or all three, in the tail of a smart bomb dropped a second or two before. This would result in a smartly accurate salvo, concentrating detonations on and close to a target. A friend of mine thought it a good enough idea to run past a retired USAF colonel he corresponded with. Colonel liked it too, but he asked, why bother with radio and IR and laser tethering? Try plain nylon rope, maybe 50 meters between each bomb? Nobody will ever jam that, nor lead it astray with flares or chaff.

I had to admire the simplicity of the colonel's thinking. He grasped the concept and at once improved on it in about the cheapest way you could.

Thus my slogan is, Rope for Ukraine!
 
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