The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[The Don]

As it Happens, Tikhistory has reached the 22nd of November in episode 38 of his epic Battle of Stalingrad series.

It shows what happens to a force hollowed out by trying to keep attacking when they have no proper reinforcements and shattered logistics.

This is why I expect the Russian front to collapse when the Ukraine forces go on to the offensive.

Not that I expect an encirclement, rather a general collapse of the front and rout like that of the Italians in North Africa as a result of Operation Compass in 1940/41

I wish I shared your optimistic assessment.

ISTM that the Russians are well dug in along the Southern front and around Kharkiv and dislodging them will be very difficult.

Meanwhile, they continue to advance, very slowly, on the Eastern front,

 

[Craig4]

Yeah, ask Erdogan. Poland is actually run by the evil twin who killed his brother, and they want their region back. Their part of the cake when the Ukraine will cease to exist. As I said, the north-west of country 404 is actually Poland. Could happen, we'll see. Uncle Luka has no reason to invade and he's much less "a puppet" of Putin as you might think.

Any country that helps Ukraine kill Russian soldiers can't be all bad. The only good Russian soldier is a dead Russian soldier and the Poles have helped Ukraine make lots of "good" Russian soldiers.

 

[The Don]

This video attempts to estimate how many artillery rounds Russia has left.



There's a lot of WAG-ing going on here but they estimate between 5 and 15 million usable rounds in storage.

Even at 50,000 rounds a day that'll last them a long time and of course they can be manufacturing plenty.

 

[Oystein]

...As I said, the north-west of country 404 is actually Poland.

By the exact same logic, Kaliningrad oblast is actually Germany.
Right, CE?
Yeah, I know, you will ignore, which everyone here will read as you acknowledging.

Uncle Luka has no reason to invade and he's much less "a puppet" of Putin as you might think.

Unless you also claim that Belarus has been invaded, conquered and annexed by Russia and uncle Luka is merely a greeting Gus in the employ of his and your Führer, Herrn Putler, that ship sailed a long time ago:

On 24 February of this year, Belarus DID invade Ukraine, together with her major partner in war crime, Russia, by allowing the use of her roads, rails, airspace, and generally territory. The very fact that the pathetically failed attack on Kyiv was hampered by Belarusans just idling on their jobs in railway stations etc is witness to the fact that Belarus was actively involved in the invasion.

So you lie.

 

[Wildy]

You're right that Aleksandr Lukashenko has in the past acted independently of, indeed counter to, Putin and Russia's interests. On the invasion of Ukraine they seem to be firm allies however.

Tbh I think that he's not a firm ally on the invasion. I think if he were he would be taking a more active role in it rather than the more passive one of letting Russia transit through the country. I would guess that he sees an opportunity to further his own goals by letting Russia flounder and bank on the potential unpopularity of Putin (or his successor) in order to gain more power for himself.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

b looks a little bit around and finds Three Other Writers With Thoughts On Ukraine. Looks like little Z fired the head of the SBU, a close associate of his. b remarks correctly:

Brutal, corrupt and full of Russians. Sounds like the pot calling the kettle black.

 

[The Don]

Tbh I think that he's not a firm ally on the invasion. I think if he were he would be taking a more active role in it rather than the more passive one of letting Russia transit through the country. I would guess that he sees an opportunity to further his own goals by letting Russia flounder and bank on the potential unpopularity of Putin (or his successor) in order to gain more power for himself.

Fair enough.

The Perun video linked upthread looks at the extent of Belarus support and suggests that for Belarus to actively engage militarily would be ill-advised due to the small size of their forces and their ill-preparedness and under-funding.

The most effective thing they can to is to continue what they're currently doing - lurking near the Ukraine border, threatening to invade and in the process tying down Ukrainian defenders who could be deployed elsewhere.

 

[jimbob]

Fair enough.

The Perun video linked upthread looks at the extent of Belarus support and suggests that for Belarus to actively engage militarily would be ill-advised due to the small size of their forces and their ill-preparedness and under-funding.

The most effective thing they can to is to continue what they're currently doing - lurking near the Ukraine border, threatening to invade and in the process tying down Ukrainian defenders who could be deployed elsewhere.

See also Transnitria

 

[Childlike Empress]

Brutal, corrupt and full of Russians. Sounds like the pot calling the kettle black.

Define pot, define kettle. What we are seeing unfolding would not be possible without Russian spies in all positions of the Ukrainian "authorities".

 

[Andy_Ross]

I'd say the shoot down of Iran Air 655 was a pretty freaking basic failure to distinguish friend from foe, even if a literal IFF transponder was not involved. And the loss of an F-117 to enemy fire was a laughable failure of air operations planning, that beclowns the USAF.

My point is, so what if the Russians have an occasional IFF failure, in the middle of a shooting war? We would expect as much, or similar screw ups, even from western forces. Not every incident that makes the news in this war needs to be propagandized.

So you examples still weren't failures of IFF as the aircraft shot down were not US military aircraft shot down by the US military.

 

[Andy_Ross]

ISTM that the Russians are well dug in along the Southern front and around Kharkiv and dislodging them will be very difficult.

What have they actually got 'dug in'?
Why will 'dislodging' them be very difficult?
Why would you attack their front where the defences forces are strongest?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Define pot, define kettle. What we are seeing unfolding would not be possible without Russian spies in all positions of the Ukrainian "authorities".

Well I imagined the joke was obvious enough; the pot being the Russian authorities and the kettle the Ukrainian ones.

Since what we see unfolding is Zelensky suspending the head of Ukraine's spy agency and its prosecutor general because both of their organisations are riddled with Russian spies, then yes, it seems a tautology to note we wouldn't see that if it wasn't the case. Not sure what your point is.

 

[Mike!]

Dug in is just another way of saying sitting duck. Let them dig in, then Ukraine can rain rockets down on them and turn their trenches into graves.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Dug in is just another way of saying sitting duck. Let them dig in, then Ukraine can rain rockets down on them and turn their trenches into graves.

That's what I was thinking.
Plus, you don't attack where they are 'dug in'

 

[The Don]

Dug in is just another way of saying sitting duck. Let them dig in, then Ukraine can rain rockets down on them and turn their trenches into graves.

Can they though ?

Do you use expensive, comparatively scarce, high precision ordnance to attack trenches and highly reinforced positions ?

 

[The Don]

That's what I was thinking.
Plus, you don't attack where they are 'dug in'

Ukraine has demonstrated that well prepared positions are very expensive to take.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Can they though ?

Do you use expensive, comparatively scarce, high precision ordnance to attack trenches and highly reinforced positions ?

Yes, what do you think they are for?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Ukraine has demonstrated that well prepared positions are very expensive to take.

It depends on the quality and quantity of the defenders.

But again, why would you directly attack the well prepared positions?
What use are they when they are bypassed and surrounded?

 

[The Don]

Yes, what do you think they are for?

Taking out high value targets a long way away - so far only 4 HIMARS vehicles have been provided.

 

[theprestige]

So you examples still weren't failures of IFF as the aircraft shot down were not US military aircraft shot down by the US military.

They weren't intended to be examples of IFF failures. I thought that would have been clear, if not after I gave them, then at least after I explained why I gave them and what my point was in giving them. Why are you telling me something we both already know?