The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[jimbob]

If Belarus join in with Russia it will be a disaster for them.
Think of what happened to the Rumanian divisions on the Eastern Front in WW2. That's what will happen.

I agree with all that

My point was... how much of an option did Romania have about whether to send divisions to the Eastern Front? Also I think it would be a bad idea for Putin, because he would be likely to lose Belarus as well. The unrest is just below the surface there, but see also my second paragraph.

It still might be, if Putin decides it's better to risk his puppet regime in Belarus in order to damage Ukraine more.

It would probably be a bad idea. But then I thought it was conventional wisdom that armoured offensives in the mud season with insufficient logistical support were also a bad idea.

 

[Oystein]

... Poland ... The West of it is actually German (East Prussia) ...

Interesting alt-history stance.
Are you also of the opinion that Kaliningrad Oblast is actually German, for the exact same reason?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Prussia#Northern_part_to_the_Soviet_Union

 

[Allen773]

But Chechen regulars, backed by Russian intel and logistics, trying to make a conventional advance against conventional forces? Different story, probably.

Is there some sort of military competence anywhere on the Russian side that I (and the vast majority of experts, and basically any objective observers) am missing? Because I'm not sure how "peer-to-peer" a conventional conflict between Russia and its allies/proxies and NATO would be.

Putin's trump card, like the Soviets in the past - and frankly, like every country who has them - has always been the nukes. Otherwise he's just waiting for Ukraine's allies to get tired and distracted enough that he can "win" this war (whatever the hell that looks like).

 

[Allen773]

The Ukraine had no reason to defend itself against Belarus. Uncle Luka is a leader of the kind someone like you and I don't have. Someone who cares about his people. While Poland is run by trash like your and my country. Poland, btw, is a clown show. The West of it is actually German (East Prussia), while the north of Ukraine, around Lwow, is actually Poland.

Not the best of your trolling efforts I'm afraid.

 

[Wildy]

I'm much more less sure about it than you are. In my opinion Poland is much more likely to invade Ukraine than Belarus is.

So in the real world that means that Poland isn't going to invade ever. I'm basing this on your previous prediction on whether Russia was going to invade Ukraine.

 

[Allen773]

So in the real world that means that Poland isn't going to invade ever. I'm basing this on your previous prediction on whether Russia was going to invade Ukraine.

 

[Andy_Ross]

As it Happens, Tikhistory has reached the 22nd of November in episode 38 of his epic Battle of Stalingrad series.

It shows what happens to a force hollowed out by trying to keep attacking when they have no proper reinforcements and shattered logistics.

This is why I expect the Russian front to collapse when the Ukraine forces go on to the offensive.

Not that I expect an encirclement, rather a general collapse of the front and rout like that of the Italians in North Africa as a result of Operation Compass in 1940/41

 

[a_unique_person]

Here's the Newsweek story on it...



https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoots-su-34-bomber-luhansk-ukraine-claims-1725524

The same guys who shot down the 777?

 

[theprestige]

Russian war correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny published a video over night which he said shows Russian/LNR air defenses destroying a target over Alchevsk. It appears that Russian air defenses shot down its own Su-34 bomber.

It seems IFF is something the Russians have no knowledge of.

https://t.me/epoddubny/11603

Add a working IFF system to the things Russia is lacking.

It's not like it is something novel. IFF transponders were used by both RAF and US air forces way back in WW2.

It's war. Not everything has to be propagandized. In the west, too, we sometimes shoot down the wrong plane, even though we certainly have good IFF.

I always figured that in contested airspace, in the middle of a war, there's going to be some friendly fire even if everyone is doing their best to maintain and operate functional IFF systems.

Between the shoot down of Iran Air 655, and US mission planners making their stealth fighter so predictable in its flight patterns as to negate its stealth, I don't think we're in any position to point and laugh at the occasional Russian IFF failure.

Now, if their IFF is so unreliable that it's affecting their operational tempo, or preventing a more comprehensive and aggressive air defense network, then I think we can point and laugh.

 

[Andy_Ross]

It's war. Not everything has to be propagandized. In the west, too, we sometimes shoot down the wrong plane, even though we certainly have good IFF.

I always figured that in contested airspace, in the middle of a war, there's going to be some friendly fire even if everyone is doing their best to maintain and operate functional IFF systems.

Between the shoot down of Iran Air 655, and US mission planners making their stealth fighter so predictable in its flight patterns as to negate its stealth, I don't think we're in any position to point and laugh at the occasional Russian IFF failure.

Now, if their IFF is so unreliable that it's affecting their operational tempo, or preventing a more comprehensive and aggressive air defense network, then I think we can point and laugh.

Your examples are not failures of IFF.

 

[theprestige]

Your examples are not failures of IFF.

I'd say the shoot down of Iran Air 655 was a pretty freaking basic failure to distinguish friend from foe, even if a literal IFF transponder was not involved. And the loss of an F-117 to enemy fire was a laughable failure of air operations planning, that beclowns the USAF.

My point is, so what if the Russians have an occasional IFF failure, in the middle of a shooting war? We would expect as much, or similar screw ups, even from western forces. Not every incident that makes the news in this war needs to be propagandized.

 

[arthwollipot]

I'm much more less sure about it than you are. In my opinion Poland is much more likely to invade Ukraine than Belarus is.

Wait. You think that Poland - a NATO country - is more likely to invade Ukraine than Belarus - a Putinist puppet dictatorship? Wasn't one of the claimed reasons for the war that Ukraine was getting too friendly with NATO? This makes absolutely zero sense.

 

[a_unique_person]

The UAF have been done a few Friendly Fire kills of their own.

 

[Reformed Offlian]

Poland, btw, is a clown show. The West of it is actually German (East Prussia), while the north of Ukraine, around Lwow, is actually Poland.

East Prussia would actually be the Kaliningrad Oblast. The western bits of Poland you're talking about are probably Silesia and Pomerania.

None of this explains why Poland is a "clown show". If inclusion of East Prussia makes your country a clown show, then Russia is a clown show.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Wait. You think that Poland - a NATO country - is more likely to invade Ukraine than Belarus - a Putinist puppet dictatorship? Wasn't one of the claimed reasons for the war that Ukraine was getting too friendly with NATO? This makes absolutely zero sense.

Yeah, ask Erdogan. Poland is actually run by the evil twin who killed his brother, and they want their region back. Their part of the cake when the Ukraine will cease to exist. As I said, the north-west of country 404 is actually Poland. Could happen, we'll see. Uncle Luka has no reason to invade and he's much less "a puppet" of Putin as you might think.

 

[Childlike Empress]

b looks a little bit around and finds Three Other Writers With Thoughts On Ukraine. Looks like little Z fired the head of the SBU, a close associate of his. b remarks correctly:

[...] With some 35,000 people on staff the SBU is as big as the FBI but controls a 90% smaller population. Next to internal security it is also tasked with fighting economic crimes. It is brutal, utterly corrupt and filled with Russian spies and has been so since the Ukraine became on independent nation. The only correct but dangerous move would be to dissolve it. [...]

 

[The Don]

Yeah, ask Erdogan. Poland is actually run by the evil twin who killed his brother, and they want their region back. Their part of the cake when the Ukraine will cease to exist. As I said, the north-west of country 404 is actually Poland. Could happen, we'll see. Uncle Luka has no reason to invade and he's much less "a puppet" of Putin as you might think.

Sometimes a performer, in an attempt to stay relevant, takes things too far and attempted edginess turns into plain gibberish.

You're right that Aleksandr Lukashenko has in the past acted independently of, indeed counter to, Putin and Russia's interests. On the invasion of Ukraine they seem to be firm allies however.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Larry C. Johnson chimes in (the fired head of the SBU apparently was a childhood buddy of z):

[...] The new head of the SBU, Vasily Malyuk, was the number two guy before ascending to the top spot. I suspect the British and US intelligence officials on scene may be more comfortable with Malyuk. Yet, scapegoating Bakanov for leaks of information that ostensibly led to such crushing blows as the defeat of the mercenary camp at the Yavorovsky training ground or the recent blow of the missile strike that hit the meeting of the Ukrainian Air Force command with foreign military in Vinnytsia, does not absolve Malyk of responsibility.

I have do doubt that Russia’s FSB penetrated Ukraine’s SBU and had several agents passing secrets along. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that Russia’s intelligence officers also fed false information to the Ukrainians that made innocent SBU officers appear to be collaborators or traitors. Instead of bringing order to an already suspect organization, Zelensky’s latest move is likely to spawn further chaos and distrust. Any SBU officer with a modicum of moxie will be looking over their shoulder wondering if they can trust their superiors.

The SBU has an additional problem–rounding up accused traitors leaves a gap in the field that is not easily nor quickly filled. It is reasonable to assume that the SBU officers accused of spying for Russia had been in the forward areas for a while and had established “trusted” contacts. That is all up in the air now. This move comes at an inopportune time. Ukraine desperately needs human intelligence from the frontlines as Russia ramps up its offensive. Zelensky’s move, whether justified or not, simply makes that task more difficult, if not impossible in the short term.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Sometimes a performer, in an attempt to stay relevant, takes things too far and attempted edginess turns into plain gibberish.

While more often the art is just not understood by the audience.

 

[Childlike Empress]

In case anybody is wondering who the "evil twin" is, I'm referring to this guy.