The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548767617535672323?s=20&t=iTM8D8PfGjw-m1YO3gUZbA

Possible hints that Russia is getting concerned about longer range rockets

 

[Doubt]

Not in Livitschansk. You can probably get one for a hundredth of that if you can utter a proper "Allahu Akhbar".

[imgw=640]https://i.imgur.com/3ZhXByL.jpg[/imgw]

(That's the flag of the Lugansk People's Republic. Photo courtesy of Thomas Röper who made it a couple of days ago)

Pro tip. Solid rocket motors don't like plain old humid air. That is why missiles are typically in sealed cases full of nitrogen. Modern light and medium antitank missiles are shipped in a case that is also the launcher. Launching is something that breaks the seal.

Looking closely at that first table, three of the 5 have open cases and are of a type that cannot be sealed. Those are empty tubes. The 2 closest are covered but are of types that can be covered again after the rocket is fired. Several other tubes further down are also open. At the very bottom of the photo is another tube with nothing on the end at all.

Given the near total lack of security in the photo, (one guy not actually watching anything), the only reasonable conclusion is that they are all empty. They are way to valuable to be left sitting around like that if they are usable ammunition.

ETA: The one in the middle of the table appears to be a recoiless rifle. Had to zoom in to see it. So that may be an actual, usable weapon. If there was any ammo for it.

 

[Stout]

OPERATION Z – DON’T INTERRUPT

The esteemed Guardian respectfully requests that you hold it's beer while declaring all is lost and the only solution is for the west to go charging in and kick some Russian ass which will totally not start WW3. I wonder if Vegas is taking odds.

Fortunately, there is an alternative: using Nato’s overwhelming power to decisively turn the military tide.

As previously argued here, direct, targeted, forceful western action to repulse Russia’s repulsive horde is not a vote for a third world war. It’s the only feasible way to bring this escalating horror to a swift conclusion while ensuring Putin, and those who might emulate him, do not profit from lawless butchery.

Now I'm not a German speaker but I just have to assume that German eco-activists have big big plans to protest and blockade the restarting of Nordstream 1 so I guess I'll just have to wait for the footage of the rallies. As a word of support I'd like to pass along some support from Canada and let those brave warriors know that the Ukrainian diaspora has their backs. and is enthusiastic about helping Germany on towards their goal of net zero.

What else do I have?....Oh yes.

The war will be long and the sanctions are beginning to take effect. Beginning to? So much for all those photos pf Russina megayschts being towed away but what ever, it was a nioce distraction from the fact that Europe had crazy glued it's lips to the teat of Russian fossil despite being cautioned by america.

 

[Andy_Ross]

https://www.stripes.com/news/marine...uadcopter-drones-for-infantry-squads-1.512055

Welcome to the future. Small drones of various sizes have a tactical value and are being deployed. In the case of the marines, they reorganized their squads to have a tech guy as part of the squad.

Speaking from the POV of somebody who was an infantry officer, yes, these are useful.

But they are not drones large enough to carry a useful explosive warhead or charge. Small camera drones are a different this to this proposed 'swarm' of loitering munitions.

Anything of that size would be further up the ladder.

They don't exist and won't take any part in the war in Ukraine.

Maybe those that are keen on them should start a thread.

 

[lomiller]

Remember that you know all about the "failure" from a war party, "western" corporate media. There is nothing else you know except the information I'm gracious enough to offer you.

Western "corporate media" needs to compete to get the best stories if they want to survive. This makes them an excellent source of real information. The Russian state owned media you get all your "information" from has a single mandate of convincing idiots and info-victims like your self that genocide is ok if it's in the name of fascism. (You do realize Russia is fascist right? Well maybe not, you probably don't even know what fascism is)

 

[sackett]

But they are not drones large enough to carry a useful explosive warhead or charge. Small camera drones are a different this to this proposed 'swarm' of loitering munitions.

Anything of that size would be further up the ladder.

They don't exist and won't take any part in the war in Ukraine.

Maybe those that are keen on them should start a thread.

Well, UVision in Israel is pushing its Hero 1250 with either a 30 or 50 kilo warhead (they can't seem to make up their minds, but I'm guessing 50) and a 200 km range. It's battery powered.

It's also a tube launched cruciform folding wing design with modest lifting surfaces. I kinda think an airplane-shaped machine with an IC engine could fly with more bang (100 kilos? surely?) and a 75 km range. Suppose it shed its wheels after takeoff and its engine when the fuel was used up, and made its final approach in a glide, still under control (glider uavs are already a thing) but silent and cold. I don't think 75 klix is too ambitious with that regime.

If a layman like me can conceive of such a weapon, there are crowds of boffins who've been doing it for decades.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Pro tip. Solid rocket motors don't like plain old humid air. That is why missiles are typically in sealed cases full of nitrogen. Modern light and medium antitank missiles are shipped in a case that is also the launcher. Launching is something that breaks the seal.

Looking closely at that first table, three of the 5 have open cases and are of a type that cannot be sealed. Those are empty tubes. The 2 closest are covered but are of types that can be covered again after the rocket is fired. Several other tubes further down are also open. At the very bottom of the photo is another tube with nothing on the end at all.

Given the near total lack of security in the photo, (one guy not actually watching anything), the only reasonable conclusion is that they are all empty. They are way to valuable to be left sitting around like that if they are usable ammunition.

ETA: The one in the middle of the table appears to be a recoiless rifle. Had to zoom in to see it. So that may be an actual, usable weapon. If there was any ammo for it.

It's an exhibition made for the journalists they carried there. It's not an actual "black market". I thought this was clear from the context.

 

[Childlike Empress]

According to this, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a 'win' for Russia as long as Moscow doesn't fall within 10 months of Russia's initial attack.

I have no idea how someone could read this out of the article or even the snippet. It's totally not what it says.

 

[The Don]

It's an exhibition made for the journalists they carried there. It's not an actual "black market". I thought this was clear from the context.

An exhibition of expended ordnance presented to credulous hand-picked journalists. Yep, that sounds like the kind of clumsy propaganda that Russia and their allies engage in.

 

[Childlike Empress]

An exhibition of expended ordnance presented to credulous hand-picked journalists. Yep, that sounds like the kind of clumsy propaganda that Russia and their allies engage in.

Yep, that's what it is. On the other end of the "journalistic" spectrum from the US and UK "think tank" whores the folks in here like to quote. Let's look at the full spectrum.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

I have no idea how someone could read this out of the article or even the snippet. It's totally not what it says.

A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

 

[The Don]

The latest video from Perun. This time he's assessing Belarus and their possible future role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.



yt;dw version, there's little for Belarus to gain and they're not particularly strong militarily, but that doesn't mean that they won't get directly involved.

 

[Childlike Empress]

I have no idea who "Perun" is but a better question would be "Could Poland invade Ukraine?".

 

[a_unique_person]

I have no idea how someone could read this out of the article or even the snippet. It's totally not what it says.

The article creates it's own, cozy little world, in which Putin's Russia is a force for good and using the latest military technology and tactics to save the people from the Nazis.



Those that don't die immediately from their homes being violently destroyed or of starvation and exposure in the coming months.

 

[The Don]

I have no idea who "Perun" is

Oh, you should definitely read this thread then. His background is discussed here.

but a better question would be "Could Poland invade Ukraine?".

I'm sure it could - but it won't.

The most recently linked video does address the Russian conspiracy theory that the West, and specifically Poland want to invade Ukraine and comes to the conclusion that it's very far-fetched.

 

[Klimax]

Logistics Collapse

Ukraine is likely going to end in a likely very Russian way. It’s starting to look like the armies of Vladimir Putin will go home on foot, leaving a lot of equipment behind. Why? They are facing a logistics collapse like that seen by the armies of the Tzar in 1917, after the Summer offensive.

 

[Childlike Empress]

I'm sure it could - but it won't.

I'm much more less sure about it than you are. In my opinion Poland is much more likely to invade Ukraine than Belarus is.

 

[Childlike Empress]

The latest video from Perun. This time he's assessing Belarus and their possible future role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.



yt;dw version, there's little for Belarus to gain and they're not particularly strong militarily, but that doesn't mean that they won't get directly involved.

OK, I gave this guy around 8 minutes before he cradled me up with his uppity speech. What a moron.

 

[The Don]

OK, I gave this guy around 8 minutes before he cradled me up with his uppity speech. What a moron.

Yes, be sure not to criticise the quality of the analysis, or to try and question the information on which the analysis is based, question the tone.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

... In my opinion Poland is much more likely to invade Ukraine than Belarus is.

Oh definitely, in the same way I'm "much more likely" to win the Tour de France than my mum is, because I can still ride a bike.

It seems probable that most of the Western weapons being shipped into Ukraine are coming through Poland, plus of course the weapons which Poland itself is providing to Ukraine. If Poland were frantically arming Ukraine as a ruse so that nobody would guess it was secretly plotting to invade, that would take a level of stupidity I would normally associate with a different major combatant in the current unpleasantness.