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Should Ukraine give up?

The only way I can see Putin withdrawing without concessions from Ukraine is if his army is so thoroughly gutted that he can't even manage basic security in the occupied regions, and has to withdraw in the face of local militia resistance just to preserve what little is left.

Which will happen when the Russian economy collapses and it can't afford to pay or feed it's troops.

You can't maintain an army even within your own borders without a functioning economy. Wars are even more expensive.
 
Which will happen when the Russian economy collapses and it can't afford to pay or feed it's troops.

You can't maintain an army even within your own borders without a functioning economy. Wars are even more expensive.

All Putin has to do is stop short of that point, call a cease-fire, and regroup behind his new de facto border with the rump of Ukraine. He already captured Donbas and Crimea this way. It sucks (for him) that he didn't make it all the way to Kiev on this one, but there's no reason to think he must now relentlessly push to the extreme outcome you envision.
 
I don't see how you can be so sure.

Because you literally cannot maintain a military without a functioning economy. It is impossible. Please explain how Russia, with a collapsed economy, will be able to maintain an army of any size.

Or do you mean how am I sure the Russian economy will collapse?

Well it was circling the drain BEFORE the war. Russia cannot compete except for its grain, oil and gas exports. They were about the only thing keeping the country afloat. Now no one is buying the grain, no one is buying the gas or oil, and the Rouble is tanking. The Russian financial sector is on the brink of collapse already, with its own financial analysts saying it could implode literally any day. The banking sector is already having to fight fires to avoid a run on the banks, which gets more and more likely the more worthless the Rouble becomes. When your country cannot import goods because no one wants to sell to you and you cannot afford them anyway, you then become totally reliant on whatever you can produce from within your own borders, but eventually your economy becomes so crippled you cannot afford to pay your people. It's no good having huge fields of wheat when your farmers wages mean they can't afford to buy bread. It's no good having gas fields if your gas workers can't get paid. Eventually, your country collapses completely.
 
All Putin has to do is stop short of that point, call a cease-fire, and regroup behind his new de facto border with the rump of Ukraine. He already captured Donbas and Crimea this way. It sucks (for him) that he didn't make it all the way to Kiev on this one, but there's no reason to think he must now relentlessly push to the extreme outcome you envision.

I suspect, although I cannot confirm either way, that the West will not accept that.

Sure, IF he can somehow stop the war before the economy dies, and sure IF the West decides that this is a-ok and we will lift the sanctions then he might be ok.

If the West continues the sanctions until Russia withdraws all troops from Ukraine, the Russian economy will die. I suspect that before that happens though, someone high up will notice that they suddenly went from a billionaire to being effectively "unemployed person in Weimar Germany" and remove Putin.
 
I suspect, although I cannot confirm either way, that the West will not accept that.

Sure, IF he can somehow stop the war before the economy dies, and sure IF the West decides that this is a-ok and we will lift the sanctions then he might be ok.

If the West continues the sanctions until Russia withdraws all troops from Ukraine, the Russian economy will die. I suspect that before that happens though, someone high up will notice that they suddenly went from a billionaire to being effectively "unemployed person in Weimar Germany" and remove Putin.

Noted. I'm inclined to agree with your suspicions about the inevitability of Ukraine eventually driving Russia out of the territory it currently occupies and rescuing its citizens currently trapped behind enemy lines.

I'm *not* inclined to agree with your conviction that Ukraine is currently winning this war.
 
Noted. I'm inclined to agree with your suspicions about the inevitability of Ukraine eventually driving Russia out of the territory it currently occupies and rescuing its citizens currently trapped behind enemy lines.

I'm *not* inclined to agree with your conviction that Ukraine is currently winning this war.

Oh, I don't know if I would argue that they are winning so much as arguing that they aren't losing if that makes sense?
 
Because you literally cannot maintain a military without a functioning economy. It is impossible. Please explain how Russia, with a collapsed economy, will be able to maintain an army of any size.

Or do you mean how am I sure the Russian economy will collapse?

Well it was circling the drain BEFORE the war. Russia cannot compete except for its grain, oil and gas exports. They were about the only thing keeping the country afloat. Now no one is buying the grain, no one is buying the gas or oil, and the Rouble is tanking. The Russian financial sector is on the brink of collapse already, with its own financial analysts saying it could implode literally any day. The banking sector is already having to fight fires to avoid a run on the banks, which gets more and more likely the more worthless the Rouble becomes. When your country cannot import goods because no one wants to sell to you and you cannot afford them anyway, you then become totally reliant on whatever you can produce from within your own borders, but eventually your economy becomes so crippled you cannot afford to pay your people. It's no good having huge fields of wheat when your farmers wages mean they can't afford to buy bread. It's no good having gas fields if your gas workers can't get paid. Eventually, your country collapses completely.

Sadly I think the West is still buying the gas and India has offered to buy the oil…
 
Oh, I don't know if I would argue that they are winning so much as arguing that they aren't losing if that makes sense?

Totally makes sense! I feel like I grok that argument fully. I also disagree with it. Russia is still encroaching on Ukrainian territory. The way I see it, Ukraine is still losing. They're just losing more slowly than Putin would have liked. And there's some hope that the tide may yet turn and Ukraine will start winning. But they're not winning yet. Trading your land for your enemy's lives is a solid strat, and with any luck it should pay off, but it hasn't paid off yet.
 
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There is no way that this isn't the end result of this war. Literally the only question is how long Putin will be able to drag it out for.


The Russian economy will be utterly destroyed by the sanctions. It's already falling apart. Eventually the fact that his country doesn't have an economy anymore and can't afford to keep it's people fed or it's army paid will mean that someone will notice and realise that they are ******. You cannot continue a war when you can't even pay or feed your soldiers, and when the Russian economy collapses that's exactly the situation they will be in.

Which is how WW1 ended when Germany could no longer feed it's army or population and the economy had completely collapsed.
 
Totally makes sense! I feel like I grok that argument fully. I also disagree with it. Russia is still encroaching on Ukrainian territory. The way I see it, Ukraine is still losing. They're just losing more slowly than Putin would have liked. And there's some hope that the tide may yet turn and Ukraine will start winning. But they're not winning yet. Trading your land for your enemy's lives is a solid strat, and with any luck it should pay off, but it hasn't paid off yet.

If it goes on like it is for much longer I can see the Russian army in the field starting to fall apart. there will be desertions and refusals to fight. It isn't like WW2, there isn't an army of political commissars enforcing the will of Stalin and the fight isn't even on their own soil.
Persuading new conscripts or called up reserves to dive in to the meat grinder will be difficult.
 
At least there's no more confusion about this being an EU membership question.

Yes, if that were Putin's only demand, and if there was any reason to trust his word in this, sure, I'd say that as illegitimate and morally depraved as such a peace demand would be, Ukraine should accept it, accept Donbass, accept Crimea, and accept NATO membership, and count itself lucky.

If.

But we both know that's not going to happen. And we both know that none of this makes Russia's demand for an official language in Ukraine legitimate.

Yes, we agree "that's not going to happen".
Which has nothing to do with the legitimacy of significant minority languages. Why conflate the two?
Why demand that something that is legitimate on its own terms be declared illegitimate? Why create an injustice where the normal state of affairs would be perfectly alright?
 
...
Or do you mean how am I sure the Russian economy will collapse?

Well it was circling the drain BEFORE the war. Russia cannot compete except for its grain, oil and gas exports. They were about the only thing keeping the country afloat. ...

Really?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia#2014–present
In January 2016, Bloomberg rated Russia's economy as the 12th most innovative in the world,[104] up from 14th in January 2015[105] and 18th in January 2014.[106] Russia has the world's 15th highest patent application rate, the 8th highest concentration of high-tech public companies, such as internet and aerospace and the third highest graduation rate of scientists and engineers.

Real per capita GDP in US$, purchasing power parity, increased from 24,063 in 2015 to 30,431 in 2021 - +26% in six years, or +4% per year on average. Pretty good, actually.
 
Yes, we agree "that's not going to happen".
Which has nothing to do with the legitimacy of significant minority languages. Why conflate the two?
I did not conflate the two.

I was talking exclusively about the (il)legitimacy of Putin's demand for Russian as an official language in Ukraine, as a condition for peace.

Why demand that something that is legitimate on its own terms be declared illegitimate? Why create an injustice where the normal state of affairs would be perfectly alright?
Russia's demand is illegitimate.

Anyone's demand that another country establish an official language would be illegitimate.

Requiring an official language as a pre-requisite for admission into an association is entirely legitimate, assuming membership is voluntary.

You're the one conflating all these ideas about the principle of official languages with the question of whether we should dismiss Russia's demand of Ukraine outright (we should).
 
Regarding this issue of Ukraine giving up or not (cf. title of this thread), there is perhaps one possibility which hasn't been talked about enough: Ukraine could perhaps offer only minimum military resistance to save lives and property, and then use various methods to put pressure on the invaders, to make them understand they are not welcome (protests in the street, resistance through limited use of violence..., like when some former colonies wanted to get rid of the colonial power).
 
Regarding this issue of Ukraine giving up or not (cf. title of this thread), there is perhaps one possibility which hasn't been talked about enough: Ukraine could perhaps offer only minimum military resistance to save lives and property, and then use various methods to put pressure on the invaders, to make them understand they are not welcome (protests in the street, resistance through limited use of violence..., like when some former colonies wanted to get rid of the colonial power).

Like Algeria you mean?
 

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