The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Hercules56]

No he's not. He has a very good record of accurately predicting geo-political outcomes.

<< In 2014 Russia Today’s British channel was censured by the UK media regulator for coverage involving Sleboda. It was found to have breached the broadcasting code on impartiality over its coverage of the Ukraine crisis, including for one report in which Sleboda described the Ukrainian administration as a “putsch government” that came to power with the help of “a number of extremists”. >>

This is an accurate description of the 2014 coup.

There was no "coup".

Ukraine wanted to sign a pro-EU treaty and the President reversed course, instead looking to join an economic union with Russia. The people started to protest, the pro-Russian President started to crack down on them, they protested more, Russia started giving the President bribes, the President starting using Fascist tactics to stop the protests, the protesters reacted with violence against violence by the police, the President finally ran away cause he had created a disaster. That's not a coup, that's an ******* President ignoring the will of the people and then seeing the consequences of his authoritarian crackdowns.

 

[Hercules56]

The US has already very deliberately cornered Putin/Russia.

Nobody forced the USSR to invade Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania in 1939. Nobody forced the USSR to use brutal measures to crush dissent in Eastern Europe during the 50s, 60s and 70s.

But Eastern Europe learned their lesson and CHOSE to join NATO as soon as they could, to avoid more Russian/Soviet invasions.

Who's fault was this? Russia/USSR. They only have themselves to blame for NATOs eastward expansion.

Should NATO have negotiated some security arrangements with Russia as they did this? Yes. But their eastward expansion was destiny due to Russian/Soviet aggression and authoritarianism during the 20th century.

 

[blutoski]

Why? Everyone in Russia knows what life is like outside Russia. They have been living the same lifestyle.

Absolutely, and that's why I apologize for not being clear; I changed the subject a bit.

The context is not that the soldiers in Ukraine are going to be under the microscope because of knowing what it's like outside Russia - it's that they know the reports of war crimes such as shelling residential districts are true because they're watching it happen. Their experience with this invasion directly contradicts official messaging.

Putin's containment policy may be cut and dried about this.

 

[Frank Newgent]

RISJ Global Journalism Seminar with Christo Grozev, lead Russia investigator, Bellingcat.

I think this is worth some of your time. It's 1 hour long but some interesting insights here. Any comments ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LC_RA1l3NpE

Thank you for posting that.

 

[dudalb]

Sorry if this has already been posted, and even sorrier regardless:
Washington’s Newest Worry: The Dangers of Cornering Putin

I knew the appeasers would show up sooner or later.

 

[Venom]

No he's not. He has a very good record of accurately predicting geo-political outcomes.

<< In 2014 Russia Today’s British channel was censured by the UK media regulator for coverage involving Sleboda. It was found to have breached the broadcasting code on impartiality over its coverage of the Ukraine crisis, including for one report in which Sleboda described the Ukrainian administration as a “putsch government” that came to power with the help of “a number of extremists”. >>

This is an accurate description of the 2014 coup.

Yes, yes, again, Yanukovych had no real opposition and there were no real grassroots movements independent of Western influence.

 

[dudalb]

Yes, yes, again, Yanukovych had no real opposition and there were no real grassroots movements independent of Western influence.

I see Jihad Jane is pinch hitting for CE>

 

[dudalb]

CNN, BBC and BLOOMBURG pulling their reporters out of Russia out of fears they will be prosecuted under the new laws making it a crime to spread "fake news'.
Back to the good old days of Stalin, boys.

 

[acbytesla]

The US has already very deliberately cornered Putin/Russia. These "Senior White House officials" are either being remarkably oblivious or cynically dishonest.

Forever War in Ukraine or End of Unipolar World?

Interview with Mark Sleboda (International relations and security analyst, US Navy vet, based in Moscow.)

It's hard to say what the ramifications of this invasion will be. But it very well could lead to the fall of Putin's regime. But we're all speculating.

Russia simply isn't wealthy enough for this to drag on. It has the GDP of Italy. The real question is there a way to take this bully down. It's not like Russia's parliament has any power.

 

[Jimbo07]

Russia simply isn't wealthy enough for this to drag on. It has the GDP of Italy. The real question is there a way to take this bully down. It's not like Russia's parliament has any power.

CNN Rolling earlier today:

EU foreign policy chief says sanctions are not aimed at regime change in Russia

so... we'll see

 

[dudalb]

CNN Rolling earlier today:

EU foreign policy chief says sanctions are not aimed at regime change in Russia

so... we'll see

Of course they will say that in public but privately I think it's something different.
I think it is clear there can be no resolution until Putin is gone. The west will never trust him again.

 

[BillC]

Russia trying real hard to project a "I never wanted any of your stupid Western products/services anyway!" vibe.

Give it a few weeks and it will be "We always wanted to live in mud huts using our currency for toiletpaper. Your sanctions have nothing to do with it!"

Russian man destroys his son's iPad with a hammer

I mean, he's a fool. In a month, that iPad would have been worth a million rubles, easy.

 

[Jimbo07]

Of course they will say that in public but privately I think it's something different.

They may say it so that they're not being seen as explicitly waging economic war on the regime (who said the other day that economic wars have become real wars).

They may also be saying it, though, as a tacit admission, or at least to manage expectations, that some Oligarch or member of the inner circle isn't going to ride in on a white horse and lop off Putin's head. I mean, some actually believe this, anyway! Lavrov seems to be all-in, for example.

I think it is clear there can be no resolution until Putin is gone. The west will never trust him again.

I don't think anyone trusts him now, least of all his friends! "We don't mind if he's a crook, so long as he's our crook."

 

[Jimbo07]

Sorry, double post

I mean, he's a fool. In a month, that iPad would have been worth a million rubles, easy.

And that in itself will be worth a good couple bucks!

 

[dudalb]

They may say it so that they're not being seen as explicitly waging economic war on the regime (who said the other day that economic wars have become real wars).

They may also be saying it, though, as a tacit admission, or at least to manage expectations, that some Oligarch or member of the inner circle is going to ride in on a white horse and lop off Putin's head. I mean, some actually believe this, anyway! Lavrov seems to be all-in, for example.



I don't think anyone trusts him now, least of all his friends! "We don't mind if he's a crook, so long as he's our crook."

This crisis will not end until Putin it out of office.

 

[BillC]

Sorry, double post



And that in itself will be worth a good couple bucks!

You beat my edit

 

[shemp]

CNN Rolling earlier today:

EU foreign policy chief says sanctions are not aimed at regime change in Russia

so... we'll see

They left out the "nudge nudge wink wink" follow up.

 

[gnome]

I think the best way to avoid escalation, especially nuclear, is not to back down, but not to leave Putin with nothing to lose either.

Give him an "out" that could be acceptable. It's more important to end this (and by that I mean end it with Russia out of Ukraine and even Crimea if possible), than it is to humiliate/retaliate.

 

[acbytesla]

CNN Rolling earlier today:

EU foreign policy chief says sanctions are not aimed at regime change in Russia

so... we'll see

The first casualty of war is truth. But in a way, that is unfair to the EU Chief. The sanctions are not aimed primarily at regime change, but at an end of the war. That said, I don't think that end can arise without regime change.

 

[psionl0]

You beat my edit

Beware of the scales on the charts. They imply that the Russian Ruble has completely collapsed.

In fact, the exchange rate has fallen by 43%. Still a massive drop in less than a week (no doubt with more to come) but there is no reason to suggest that the Ruble is toilet paper right now.