The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Ryokan]

B) Elon's gonna profit from this big time, oh well. Better him than Putin by a country mile.

Speaking of Elon, he has made the Tesla superchargers free in the areas that border Ukraine.

 

[theprestige]

The Baltic States are NATO members.
Putin attacks them, WW3 starts for sure.

This is another area where the rhetoric has been bizarrely one-sided. Putin won't attack NATO because he knows he can't win that, only make everyone lose. His whole reason for invading Ukraine is to prevent NATO from gaining a foothold there.

NATO could make the same argument in support of going into Ukraine - it's vital to security in Europe to prevent Russia from gaining a foothold there.

And since we know* Russia won't dare confront NATO directly, there should be no downside at all to putting NATO forces in Ukraine.

 

[theprestige]

Yeah, remarkable scenes... Russia is SO winning this war.

Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine. It's unlikely that these gains will be reversed, no matter what else happens. It's always going to be at least a partial victory for Russia. A victory that positions them for more aggression in the future. Just as the separation of Donbass and the annexation of Crimea helped position Russia for this offensive.

So I'm reluctant to gloat so much about Russia "losing" the war.

 

[JoeMorgue]

"Win" is not an either/or binary thing.

"The Russians have not obtained their goals as quickly as decisively or expected, but the Ukrainians still face overwhelming odds and remain largely outnumbered and out armed" is not any less correct just because it's not one-word pithy.

 

[Ziggurat]

Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine. It's unlikely that these gains will be reversed

It is unlikely that all their gains will be reversed, but I think it very likely some of them will be. Holding territory with a civilian population that hates you is very difficult. The Russian military may not be up to the task.

And since we know* Russia won't dare confront NATO directly, there should be no downside at all to putting NATO forces in Ukraine.

We do not know this.

So far, Putin seems unwilling to attack NATO countries directly. But conversely, NATO countries have not directly attacked Russia or Russian military assets. If we cross that Rubicon, there is no assurance that he won't cross it back.

 

[acbytesla]

Sometimes the absence of evidence really is evidence of absence. I don't think we have to wonder much, at this point, whether Russia is capable of establishing air supremacy on Day 0, against a peer enemy.

To be honest, I doubt that any nation could establish air supremacy against a peer enemy. At least, not theaterwide.

I've seen an argument that the USSR/Russia had figured out by the 80s that it would never be able to deny NATO air superiority, but that as long as they were able to contest the airspace, it would fall to ground-based artillery to decide the battles. Therefore they invested in enough air defense to ensure the airspace would remain contested, and invested in having more long-range artillery - especially rocket artillery - than their NATO counterparts. I had been expecting (perversely: hoping) to see this doctrine in action in the current conflict. However it seems that the vaunted Russian artillery is also lagging somewhat behind expectations.

Russian performance in this war puts me in mind of a line from the movie Ronin:

"You're great in the locker room, pal, and your reflexes might die hard, but you're weak when you put your spikes on."

During the 70s and 80s, more US Defense spending was sold based on the powerful Soviet Army. In particular the number of Russian tanks in East Germany which grotesquely outnumbered US and NATO Tanks in West Germany. This made any casual observer worry about the big bad Russian Bear.

But the truth is, US and NATO Generals weren't all that concerned about the numerical Russian tank advantage as the Western strategy was to counter with helicopters and other aircraft.

While you can't occupy a nation without boots and vehicles on the ground, vehicles, particularly track vehicles are far more vulnerable to attack than quick moving aircraft.

 

[Steve]

Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine. It's unlikely that these gains will be reversed, no matter what else happens. It's always going to be at least a partial victory for Russia. A victory that positions them for more aggression in the future. Just as the separation of Donbass and the annexation of Crimea helped position Russia for this offensive.

So I'm reluctant to gloat so much about Russia "losing" the war.

Every gain Russia made in Afghanistan was eventually reversed. This will very likely be the same in Ukraine, given time.

 

[JoeMorgue]

The US has set up a secure communications channel (the exact details are, obviously, not public) with Russia for "purposes of preventing miscalculation, military incidents, and escalation.”

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Every gain Russia made in Afghanistan was eventually reversed. This will very likely be the same in Ukraine, given time.

And hopefully Ukraine won't follow Afghanistan with the US and others leaving a right-wing heavily armed insurgency behind like we left an armed Bin Laden behind after an unintended consequence of our proxy war with Russia there.

 

[Vixen]

The US has set up a secure communications channel (the exact details are, obviously, not public) with Russia for "purposes of preventing miscalculation, military incidents, and escalation.”

I managed to access this on my shortwave radio. The conversation went like this:

BIDEN: We stand united with our Iranian friends! <Kamala's voice in the background: 'Ukrainian'>

PUTIN: And what can I do for you today? Make it snappy as I am running short of my anabolic steroids and it is making me feel very, very angry -

<sfx door crashing open>

BIDEN: Hello? Are you there? Is everything all right?

PUTIN: Just some British guy with with a KFC and a fishing rod called Gazza- '
<sfx high-pitched interference>

And that's when I lost my connection.

I am going now.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Every gain Russia made in Afghanistan was eventually reversed. This will very likely be the same in Ukraine, given time.

Exactly. If the Ukrainian people don't want Russia there then Russia will eventually leave.

I speak as a member of a country which had at one time 25% of the land area of the earth and a similar amount of the world's population in it's domain.

 

[Drewbot]

Observations as an amateur history buff:

1. The sanctions applied to Russia right now are eerily similar to the restrictions placed on Japan pre-WW2 by the USA. They are often cited as the main reason Japan decided to attack us. Since The US would not sell them the oil, and they were not allowed by The US, to seek their own sources of oil by the same decree. They had no choice but to try to secure their own oil, while America was stunned by the Pearl Harbor attack, and also attacking: Philippines, Guam, Midway Island, Wake Island, Malaya, and Hong Kong.

2. The poor performance by the Russians will incite other Russian provinces looking for independence to possibly rebel.

3. If you do not want WW3, you must give Putin a respectful Out. Demanding his unconditional withdrawal without massaging his grievances will not lead to peace, and may lead to worse things than we have now.

 

[Jimbo07]

Exactly. If the Ukrainian people don't want Russia there then Russia will eventually leave.

I speak as a member of a country which had at one time 25% of the land area of the earth and a similar amount of the world's population in it's domain.

Hyperlandia!? Me too! Remember the butterscotch rivers, and the gumball diplomacy?

The Sun Never Sets On the Hyper Empire!

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

The US has set up a secure communications channel (the exact details are, obviously, not public) with Russia for "purposes of preventing miscalculation, military incidents, and escalation.”

I thought there already was one? Weren't there red telephones installed in the Whitehouse and Kremlin during the cold war so either leader can phone the other and ask "WTF is going on? My generals say you've just launched a nuke our way!"?

 

[crescent]

"Win" is not an either/or binary thing.

"The Russians have not obtained their goals as quickly as decisively or expected, but the Ukrainians still face overwhelming odds and remain largely outnumbered and out armed" is not any less correct just because it's not one-word pithy.

Every gain Russia made in Afghanistan was eventually reversed. This will very likely be the same in Ukraine, given time.

I've heard it said that the way for insurgents/guerillas to win war on their home turf is to just not lose. Keep fighting. Use risk averse tactics so you still have fighters, but you're still fighting. Reduce the pace of operations so you don't get all of your fighters killed - but they're still fighting, at least a little. You don't have to fight the enemy to a total military defeat, you just have to not stop fighting.

Eventually the invader just tires and leaves.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

<snip>

3. If you do not want WW3, you must give Putin a respectful Out. Demanding his unconditional withdrawal without massaging his grievances will not lead to peace, and may lead to worse things than we have now.

Why?

The Russian people do not feel the same as Putin about Ukraine.

Putin's "friends" do not feel the same way as Putin about Ukraine.

From where I'm standing Putin is living on borrowed time before he has to go, one way or another.

 

[Klimax]

High altitude strike from a B-2 or F-35 with ground painted targets*. At night no one will hear or see them so if they are invisible to radar then we can claim it wasn't us and Russia has no way to prove it. Assuming they don't have some unknown capability of tracking our stealth planes, which is very unlikely IMO.

*FYI I don't mean literally painted, I mean a laser targeting system

It doesn't look like Russians have access to any Věra systems, so stealth planes might be safe.

Does anybody really think if Putin wins in the Ukraine he is not going to go after other coutnries very quickly.
Sooner or later he will go after the Baltic States which are NATO members.

That might have been plan, but given state of army, its current record against Ukraine and probable exhaustion of ammunition and supplies it would be even worse fail.

I think the calculation is that Putin will take the major cities, then face a guerilla war that will make afhgansitan look mild in comparasion, while the systematic destruction of the Russian economy through sanctions and boycotts and embargos goes on.

Can they now take even those cities? Many of them are turning into fortresses and massive bombardment is just giving defenders material fordefense and cover.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

There's an easy way for Ukraine to win this war:

Zelensky just needs to get Putin in a room and give him a hard stare.

 

[Ziggurat]

Observations as an amateur history buff:

1. The sanctions applied to Russia right now are eerily similar to the restrictions placed on Japan pre-WW2 by the USA. They are often cited as the main reason Japan decided to attack us. Since The US would not sell them the oil, and they were not allowed by The US, to seek their own sources of oil by the same decree. They had no choice but to try to secure their own oil, while America was stunned by the Pearl Harbor attack, and also attacking: Philippines, Guam, Midway Island, Wake Island, Malaya, and Hong Kong.

That seems rather the reverse, since Russia is an oil exporter, not an importer.

The other thing countries need to survive is food. If people are starving, that threatens the survival of a nation, and you can expect bloodshed as a result. But here, Russia is also a net exporter. They are in fact the #1 wheat exporter in the whole world. The bigger problem for food isn't the effect of sanctions on Russia, but actually on countries which rely on Russian and Ukrainian food imports. The Russian imports are being hit by sanctions, the Ukrainian ones by the war itself. China is a major customer for Russian wheat, and they will likely keep buying, but several middle eastern countries depend on Russian and Ukrainian wheat and may have a much harder time getting hold of it. Prices may also skyrocket, which can be devastating to a poor country even if they still literally have access to the goods.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/02/russia-war-wheat-economy-food-security/

2. The poor performance by the Russians will incite other Russian provinces looking for independence to possibly rebel.

Are there any provinces looking for independence? I've seen no indication of this, but I'm no expert, maybe I'm missing something.

3. If you do not want WW3, you must give Putin a respectful Out.

I don't think "respectful" means much, but this is basically Sun Tzu's advice to build your enemy a bridge to retreat.

But I don't really know how we do that here. Promises of lifting sanctions are certainly part of it, but what concessions is Ukraine going to be in the mood to give? They've taken a beating, I doubt they will be in a very forgiving mood.

 

[jimbob]

Why?

The Russian people do not feel the same as Putin about Ukraine.

Putin's "friends" do not feel the same way as Putin about Ukraine.

From where I'm standing Putin is living on borrowed time before he has to go, one way or another.

Cracks have started to appear - only small but still.


https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/russian-oligarchs-speak-cautiously-war-83203979

The daughter of Putin's Kremlin spokesperson is someone you'd expect to tow the line

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-spokesmans-daughter-posted-then-deleted-anti-war-message-1682851

similarly for an oil company that is subject to easy state seizure of its assets

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russian-energy-giant-lukoil-calls-for-immediate-end-of-ukraine-war/

Russian energy giant Lukoil calls for immediate end of Ukraine war
Becoming one of the first major domestic firms to speak out against Moscow’s invasion, oil company says it ‘fully supports resolution through negotiations and diplomatic means’