The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[JoeMorgue]

Okay so how do stop Russia from just taking Ukraine just because it wants it... in a way that in anyway makes Russia (or China or anyone else) think twice about doing it the next time.

There seems to be no "found out" to Russia's "**** around."

 

[Dave Rogers]

Okay so do put the bow on the Ukraine and hand deliver it to Putin ourselves our would that just be too obvious?

While I agree that that would be a bad outcome, what better approach can you suggest?

Dave

 

[JoeMorgue]

While I agree that that would be a bad outcome, what better approach can you suggest?

Dave

None. Russia just gets everything it wants forever, so shall it be.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

I wonder what would happen if someone decided to just invade Belarus and claim it was de-nazification? It wouldn't be (well it would, but technically it wouldn't) invading Russia but it would hurt them badly.

ETA: I am not suggesting anyone do this, just thinking out loud as it were.

 

[blutoski]

Also we fought a LOT bigger proxy wars with USSR/Russia over the years. If Korea and Vietnam and Cuba didn't inevitably with no hope of turning back lead into slinging nukes this won't either.

This isn't a proxy war at this point, because Russian troops are involved.

We *were* fighting a proxy war up until last week. NATO was supporting the Ukrainian army with their handling of Russian-supported partisans in the Eastern provinces.

One of the principles of a proxy war is that the superpowers don't have soldiers in the theatre, just supporting civilian advisors and materiél. (or at least they pretend not to and deny all knowledge... there seem to have been examples of Chinese troop reinforcement in local uniforms in the Korean and Vietnamese conflicts)

This is no longer the case in Ukraine, though. NATO would be directly attacking Russian forces, which is not a proxy war.

 

[blutoski]

I wonder what would happen if someone decided to just invade Belarus and claim it was de-nazification? It wouldn't be (well it would, but technically it wouldn't) invading Russia but it would hurt them badly.

ETA: I am not suggesting anyone do this, just thinking out loud as it were.

I believe this was the reason Belarus and Russia passed legislation last week repudiating the nuclear non proliferation status of Belarus. If Belarus now has command of a few loaner Russian nuclear weapons "for defence", it's too big a risk, and made Belarus more comfortable being a known conduit for Russian forces into Ukraine.

 

[theprestige]

While I agree that that would be a bad outcome, what better approach can you suggest?

My suggestion: A much more aggressive and unequivocal brinkmanship strategy.

Put UN blue helmets inside Ukraine, parked on the supply lines from Poland into Kiev. Dare the Russians to encircle the capital or threaten the UN "peacekeepers".

Increase the flood of supplies into Ukraine.

Declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and enforce it.

Start bombing Russian supply lines and troop formations.

Total and immediate asset seizure of all Russian oligarchs everywhere in the west. Pressure China to do the same. Pressure Israel to do the same.

Total cyberwarfare against Russian state media, industrial, and commercial interests.

And, because all this stick needs a carrot or else nukes, formally cede Crimea and even Donbass, on the condition that Russia withdraws from the rest of Ukraine.

 

[psionl0]

Are we still talking about Google here? Since when is Google a "state", and since when is trying not to lead users there preventing people from going there?

Since when did anybody call Google a state and when is preventing people from going there (denying them access) trying not to lead users there?

 

[Beelzebuddy]

I don't want to risk nuclear war either, but I kind of have to insist on something other than "Well the bad guys get whatever they want in every situation because they are bad and that gives an advantage."

I think NATO has been helping about as much as it could without directly entering the war. The ruble is worth less than dogecoin now, and Ukraine is getting more anti-tank missiles than Russia has tanks.

There seems to be no "found out" to Russia's "**** around."

From Darth Putin:

Q: What's the current conversion rate between rubles, pounds and dollars?

A: A pound of rubles is worth a dollar.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I think NATO has been helping about as much as it could without directly entering the war. The ruble is worth less than dogecoin now, and Ukraine is getting more anti-tank missiles than Russia has tanks.

Okay. I mean... Russia's gonna win though. We're kind of all on the same page with that aren't we?

A "Win" and "Lookit how hard we fought and didn't compromise our values" moral high ground loss are not the same thing.

The Ukraine got a few more days at best. We all know that right?

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Nope. I don't think that's true at all.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Okay but even then what happens? Russia finally gives up in a week, 10 days, whatever when the economic action become too much to bear and... then what?

The fact that they illegally invaded a country and killed, no matter who numbers you believe right now, will turn out to be a lot of people get addressed... how?

"Russian finally has to stop invading Ukraine" isn't a win if the the invading they did has no downside for them.

 

[Dave Rogers]

None. Russia just gets everything it wants forever, so shall it be.

So you're basically complaining that reality is what it is?

Dave

 

[MarkCorrigan]

The fact their already pathetic economy is going to completely collapse and that they will be treated as international pariahs is a pretty big downside.

If Russia does some how pull its collective head out of its ass and win a military victory in Ukraine (whatever that looks like) their economy will collapse. The rouble is already virtually worthless and is still tanking and they aren't capable of being self sufficient.

If Russia fails to win in Ukraine then not only is all the above true, but they've also made themselves look pathetically weak. The might of the Russian army can't even crack Ukraine? No one would ever be scared of them again short of full on nuclear war.

No matter what happens Russia is going to lose and lose HARD. A country that can't afford to feed it's citizens is not a country that can keep going, and if even the majority of the world that's already censured them refuses to deal with them they will run out of money really, really fast and no one will want to lend them anything. The only people who could theoretically prop up Russia if the West keeps up the economic pressure is China, and they aren't going to do so.

Give it enough time, and it won't be long, and Russia will start to collapse. You can only lock up your citizens for as long as you have the police and military on your side, and if your economy collapses that won't be for long.

 

[jimbob]

This isn't a proxy war at this point, because Russian troops are involved.

We *were* fighting a proxy war up until last week. NATO was supporting the Ukrainian army with their handling of Russian-supported partisans in the Eastern provinces.

One of the principles of a proxy war is that the superpowers don't have soldiers in the theatre, just supporting civilian advisors and materiél. (or at least they pretend not to and deny all knowledge... there seem to have been examples of Chinese troop reinforcement in local uniforms in the Korean and Vietnamese conflicts)

This is no longer the case in Ukraine, though. NATO would be directly attacking Russian forces, which is not a proxy war.

Nor was Korea by that standard. The UN was involved, with heavy official involvement of at least one superpower and two countries that had conducted atomic tests by the end of the war

 

[JoeMorgue]

The fact their already pathetic economy is going to completely collapse and that they will be treated as international pariahs is a pretty big downside.

If Russia does some how pull its collective head out of its ass and win a military victory in Ukraine (whatever that looks like) their economy will collapse. The rouble is already virtually worthless and is still tanking and they aren't capable of being self sufficient.

If Russia fails to win in Ukraine then not only is all the above true, but they've also made themselves look pathetically weak. The might of the Russian army can't even crack Ukraine? No one would ever be scared of them again short of full on nuclear war.

No matter what happens Russia is going to lose and lose HARD. A country that can't afford to feed it's citizens is not a country that can keep going, and if even the majority of the world that's already censured them refuses to deal with them they will run out of money really, really fast and no one will want to lend them anything. The only people who could theoretically prop up Russia if the West keeps up the economic pressure is China, and they aren't going to do so.

Give it enough time, and it won't be long, and Russia will start to collapse. You can only lock up your citizens for as long as you have the police and military on your side, and if your economy collapses that won't be for long.

I hope you're right.

 

[Jimbo07]

Also we fought a LOT bigger proxy wars with USSR/Russia over the years. If Korea and Vietnam and Cuba didn't inevitably with no hope of turning back lead into slinging nukes this won't either.

but... a proxy war IS what's happening here. In Korea and Vietnam, Soviet pilots weren't (were ) involved in the air war against the Americans. Cuba was a very near miss.

Now it's the other way around. Russia is in Ukraine, and the West is shovelling in heaps of weapons. Apparently, there's a logjam of ammo in Poland.

Still, some are talking about direct intervention by NATO conventional forces to turn back the tide of evil! There's a certain amount of less-evilness in letting your enemies be, than wiping out all of human life. Sure, after the initial flash, there may be a few religious survivors who can bleat about the rapture, but eventually they'll die from radiation sickness, or lack of food, too.

Then, there'll be no one left to ponder good vs. evil... which sounds like its own special kind of evil to me. This is a problem that other collapsing civilzations have NEVER had to confront. It was the end times for them, but never before for everybody!

 

[JoeMorgue]

Seriously as I'm not trying to be as much of a downer as I'm surely coming across as.

It just bugs me on a base level that we all seem to get that stripped to its most fundamental level and with all the details sanded off Putin's goal was to show the west he would do whatever he wants and nobody can stop him and the narrative everyone jumped onboard with almost immediately was.... "Putin can do whatever he wants and nobody can stop him."

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Where, exactly, would Russian salvation come from? China? Won't do it. They're not stupid enough to tank their own economy as much as they like to rattle their sabres against the West.

Who is supporting them right now?

India? Doubtful. They may be economically developing but they're still not at a high enough level to prop up a failed state and they have their own problems due to massive overpopulation.

Mexico? Economically not doing super hot and despite the pissing and moaning they won't want to step too far from the other members of NAFTA.

Brazil? Nowhere near economically powerful enough.

North Korea? The World's other pariah state that has widespread famine on a near constant basis and can barely afford to keep its own bloated military going?

Eritrea? Belarus? Bahahahahahahahahaha!

 

[crescent]

Proxy war is proxy war. NATO and Russia in actual war with each other, that's something different.

True - but people seem to have forgotten how direct the aid flowed in some of these wars.

During the Yom Kippur war both the U.S. and U.S.S.R. were delivering fighter jets to their respective proxies on a 1:1/Same-day basis. Jets were replaced literally as fast as they were shot down. Now people worry that giving Ukraine jets would mean war with Russia - based on Cold War history, that's not the case.

During the Korean war, North Korean jets had safe harbor in China - that's didn't widen into a U.S. invasion of China.

I think we could make an argument for giving jets to Ukraine and allowing them to operate from Polish or Romanian airfields, and have cause to not to expect Russia to attack those nations directly - that's based on how things happened during the proxy wars of the Cold War.

Two things I have noticed on this. One is that Turkey apparently delivered more drones to Ukraine yesterday. More than one, but the numbers are not clear. The delivery fit on one A-400 cargo plane, which is midway in size between a C-130 and an C-17.

The other thing is the drama with the old Warsaw Pact jets. There was talk of turning over Polish and Bulgarian jets - as many as 70 of them. At one point Ukrainian pilots were supposedly bussed to a Polish airfield to take possession of them. The idea was to give them the Soviet-designed jets because that's what the Ukrainian pilots knew how to fly and the ground crews to maintain, plus they already have the right tools and a supply of spare parts - no new training. But the deal apparently fell apart, completely. It seems the whole concept of transferring older Warsaw Pact-inherited NATO jets is deader than dead and not expected to be revived.

There is, however talk of an American company that owns four Soviet jets used for training, that company has stated that it is willing to "transfer" them to Ukraine if approved to do so by the U.S. government. I don't know if was intended to be a donation or a sale, and I can't remember if it was Mig-29s or Su-27s. Can't find the link anymore.

I looked up info on the Turkish drones. Cruising speed a blinding 70 knots, with an operating altitude of 18,000 feet/5500m. Payload of 150 kg with four hardpoints. So if it is based on an airfield in western Ukraine, it might take eight or nine hours to get to Kharkiv or Mariupol, maybe one round trip a day. Use it's four missiles, than back west again. Then again, it has a loiter time of 24 hours.