The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[MarkCorrigan]

That would be the "The End" part, ys.

Yes, I'm aware of that.

Of course, that assumes that no one will try to stop him. Even in Russia the President cannot launch the nukes if his people refuse to do so. Even if Putin wants to do it, do you think that the Average Russian soldier, most likely a conscript, wants to die pointlessly?

 

[JoeMorgue]

Again, the experts all seem to be operating under the idea that the image of the Russian military that Russia has cultivated is actually true, or near enough so. This utter failure is showing that it isn't. The Russian military is hopelessly, woefully weak. If they can be stopped in their tracks by Ukraine then the only thing they have that is in any way scary is nukes.

But yeah that's my point. The reason we don't just drop the 101st Airborne in, park a Nimitz Class in the Black Sea, and act like we're Chris Brown and Russia said it wanted to see other people is "Oh no can't do that Putin nukes hide under the bed..."

But then he invades a NATO and country and all that magically changes?

That's too much of a shift.

 

[theprestige]

Because Ukraine is not a member of NATO or the EU. If Putin invades Poland (for example) NATO WILL respond. That's the whole point. We aren't getting involved in Ukraine because we don't have any reason to do so legally. Russia invades NATO? Goodbye Russian army.

ETA: the point is not "We won't do anything because nukes!" the point is "We won't deliberately antagonise this nutcase if we don't have to because nukes".

What does "reason to do so legally" have to do with anything? There was no legal requirement to intercede with Iraq on Kuwait's behalf. There was no legal requirement to get involved in the ethnic rivalry in former Yugoslavia. There was no legal requirement to put UN peacekeepers in Rwanda, or seek regime change in Libya, or try to rescue Korea from China. There was no legal requirement to supply Great Britain against Nazi Germany.

Hell, even after Hitler actually declared war on the US, there was no legal requirement for the US to actually invade Europe and put boots on the ground to help Europeans solve their problems. America had every legal right to kick back in the new world, point and laugh at Hitler's impotent declaration of war, and say, "build your Amerikabomber and your Silbervogel, then we'll talk."

We got involved in these conflicts not because we had a legal obligation to do so, but because we had a moral, humanitarian obligation to do so. "Legally we're allowed to sit this one out" might as well be pro-Putin propaganda.

 

[Jimbo07]

I was genuinely expecting Russia to curbstomp Ukraine. I think most people were, including Russia. Now I'm not so sure Russia can even win, at least not without shifting to a full war mobilization.

Sadly, I think what's happening now is the very best outcome we could have hoped for. If it turns out that the invaded people are putting up a spirited defence, then that is what is stopping Russia. At the very least, if Russia eventually 'wins' through brute force, it's going to be expensive.

They've already exposed their conventional forces as being in a low state of readiness (even accounting for morale improving against a NATO enemy). It will take years to rebuild, especially if their economy is in the toilet.

That's been the gist of Biden's approach. The West has expected a short term 'win' for Russia in Ukraine, but it's being set up as a long term strategic failure.

In some ways, all of this makes their nuclear position even more dangerous. How desperate will Putin get? I don't think he'll launch nukes over a de-valued Ruble, but there's little room for direct fighting by NATO.

 

[TragicMonkey]

And again I want to stress I'm not just trying to reflexively nay-say.

I hope I'm wrong. But this is more and more another one of those cases where we've given the irrational side all the volition and our hope for the future is them just deciding to start being rational at some arbitrary point down the road and those always make me nervous.

"Well maybe when they have nothing left to lose they'll decide then to stop making things worse" is a bad goal to shoot for.

I think a regime change is required. Russia merely withdrawing from Ukraine is not enough. Putin will need to go. Whether that's a quiet retirement, a quiet imprisonment, or an execution depends on how long this drags out and how nasty the Russians get. And whether it comes from a coalition of foreign nations or an internal revolution. I think NATO would be kinder to Putin now than his own people will be after a few years of economic ruin.

 

[Meadmaker]

All dirt poor without much to shout about in terms of resources. How exactly would that prop up the Russian economy?

Capturing Ukraine doesn't prop up the Russian economy either. Trading with Ukraine would. Trading, to the extent possible with poor countries, helps the economy. Blowing **** up doesn't help anyone's economy.

And yet, Putin decided to blow **** up.

Conquerors don't care about the economy.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Barring honest mistakes, doesn't it take a whole load of crazy people to start a nuclear war?

 

[MarkCorrigan]

But yeah that's my point. The reason we don't just drop the 101st Airborne in, park a Nimitz Class in the Black Sea, and act like we're Chris Brown and Russia said it wanted to see other people is "Oh no can't do that Putin nukes hide under the bed..."

But then he invades a NATO and country and all that magically changes?

That's too much of a shift.

I'm not sure you're getting my point, so I'll try to explain it better. Apologies if this is my fault with regards to not explaining it well.

If NATO went in militarily into Ukraine that would give Putin a narrative for launching the nukes that his people might buy. We went to liberate Ukraine, and the evil NATO attacked us to prop up the Nazis so let's nuke them boys might sell to enough of the military that they would actually listen when he tells them to launch.

Deliberately attacking NATO on the other hand makes it obvious that Putin is the aggressor. Even with the firehose of falsehood that would be a stretch to sell to a conscript. Russia can't attack NATO without losing the upper hand it is pretending it has over the Ukrainian invasion.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Capturing Ukraine doesn't prop up the Russian economy either. Trading with Ukraine would. Trading, to the extent possible with poor countries, helps the economy. Blowing **** up doesn't help anyone's economy.

And yet, Putin decided to blow **** up.

Conquerors don't care about the economy.

It's 2022 not the Middle Ages.

Unless a country is straight up 3rd world hellhole the primary value of the country is going to be the skills of its people. Yeah sure the Ukraine does have a fair amount of natural resources that Russia could just have its own people take out of the ground, but it also had growing automotive, shipbuilding, aerospace, communications and other "skilled" sectors.

If you invade a country and take a diamond mine you can send soldiers in to point guns at dying slaves to dig up the diamonds and still turn a profit. That's why is a historical constant since the age of Discovery that if the wealth of your country was dug out of the ground, your life sucked.

You can't do the same thing with a skill. You can't point a gun at someone and go "Design me a good car" or "Building a good airplane."

 

[Beelzebuddy]

But then he invades a NATO and country and all that magically changes?

Yes. That is what NATO is for. That is why people are in it.

In some ways, all of this makes their nuclear position even more dangerous. How desperate will Putin get? I don't think he'll launch nukes over a de-valued Ruble, but there's little room for direct fighting by NATO.

Crazy as he is I don't think he'd nuke a NATO country, but I could see him doing it to a defiant Kyiv once his other options are exhausted. He's trying to rebuild the USSR through military strength, not set up a trading partner.

Barring honest mistakes, doesn't it take a whole load of crazy people to start a nuclear war?

Just takes one.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I'm not sure you're getting my point, so I'll try to explain it better. Apologies if this is my fault with regards to not explaining it well.

If NATO went in militarily into Ukraine that would give Putin a narrative for launching the nukes that his people might buy. We went to liberate Ukraine, and the evil NATO attacked us to prop up the Nazis so let's nuke them boys might sell to enough of the military that they would actually listen when he tells them to launch.

Deliberately attacking NATO on the other hand makes it obvious that Putin is the aggressor. Even with the firehose of falsehood that would be a stretch to sell to a conscript. Russia can't attack NATO without losing the upper hand it is pretending it has over the Ukrainian invasion.

None of this matters. It's a post-fact world. Putin is going to lie and the exact number of people will believe him or not anyway.

 

[lobosrul5]

I'm not sure you're getting my point, so I'll try to explain it better. Apologies if this is my fault with regards to not explaining it well.

If NATO went in militarily into Ukraine that would give Putin a narrative for launching the nukes that his people might buy. We went to liberate Ukraine, and the evil NATO attacked us to prop up the Nazis so let's nuke them boys might sell to enough of the military that they would actually listen when he tells them to launch.

Deliberately attacking NATO on the other hand makes it obvious that Putin is the aggressor. Even with the firehose of falsehood that would be a stretch to sell to a conscript. Russia can't attack NATO without losing the upper hand it is pretending it has over the Ukrainian invasion.

I see what you're saying, but if Putin can successfully sell to the majority of his people that they're the good guys in Ukraine, then odds are he can do it with Poland or the Baltic States. And if nuclear war starts then what difference does it make if his people buy into his reasons for it or not? The world will be over as we know it anyways.

 

[Wudang]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-million-says-un-as-russia-takes-over-kherson

Vladimir Putin has told Emmanuel Macron that Kyiv’s “refusal to accept Russia’s conditions” means “the worst is still to come” in Ukraine, saying Moscow was aiming to take “full control” by diplomatic or military means, according to the Elysée.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Capturing Ukraine doesn't prop up the Russian economy either. Trading with Ukraine would. Trading, to the extent possible with poor countries, helps the economy. Blowing **** up doesn't help anyone's economy.

And yet, Putin decided to blow **** up.

Conquerors don't care about the economy.

He didn't expect there to be any real resistance, that's why. He went in expecting to roll over the Ukrainian military in less than a week and install a puppet government.

Unfortunately that hasn't happened. Russia is making really slow progress in the places it's making any at all, and it's becoming increasingly obvious that the Russian military cannot take and hold Ukraine.

Normally this would be the point at which someone who isn't in Putin's spot would think "Oh ****, I need to stop this now so I can trade again". However Putin is not in the same position that, for example, Joe Biden or even Trump would be. Putin's entire schtick is being a Strong Man^TM. A Strong Man^TM that uses military might to get what he wants and bullies The West into letting him do what he wants. He can't back out at all because if he does he loses his entire image in one go and looks weak. It's bad enough when a leader in a Western Democracy looks weak, but for a Strong Man^TM dictator? It's suicide, possibly literally.

So now Putin can't back down or he will look weak to his people, both the average Josef on the street and the people who actually matter, the Oligarchs and the military leaders. So he keeps pushing forwards instead, and as a consequence begins to look weaker and weaker and weaker...

Putin can't go forwards or he'll end up humiliating the Russian military, but he absolutely CANNOT go backwards because he will look weak.

He's basically damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, only if he doesn't (keep going) he's even more damned.

 

[crescent]

I think Ukraine can win - barely.

If we supply Ukraine better, they can fight Russia to a bloody draw. Russia might keep pouring people and supplies in, but their poor logistics and training would just turn that into a meat grinder. Eventually that meat grinder would have enough political impact in Russia to see Putin removed from power (being Russia, he probably would not survive that).

Give Ukraine greatly improved air defense. Patriot missiles and whatever other anti-aircraft defense we can. We have been giving them shoulder-fire anti-aircraft, but those are limited to relatively low altitude targets. Give them systems to hit fast targets at 50,000 feet (like the USSR did with Hanoi).

Give them jets. Revive the effort to give them NATO's old Migs and Sukhois - move USAF and RAF aircraft to Poland and Bulgaria and wherever else to cover the NATO nations for the loss of those jets until they can get replaced.

Do that so they can set up at least a safe space in the west of the country, airfields that Russia can't hit without great effort.

Give Ukraine drones, drones, and more drones. Good American and European ones that can cruise at twice the speed and altitude of the Turkish drones but that are still vastly cheaper than crewed aircraft.

Plan for a longer war - take a few dozen Ukrainian pilots and ground crew to Nevada and start training them on American jets - F-16s, F-18s, whatever. That takes time, but that can also signal that there is a commitment to following through on the win.

Push the manufacturers of the shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons to ensure a generous supply for Ukraine. Hire extra shifts at the manufacturing plants, that sort of thing.

Keep up our side of the (supposedly) asymmetric warfare. Make our own propaganda, our own hacking and disruption, continued economic sanctions. Try, just for once for a change, to actually implement sanctions that hit the richest of the rich the hardest (most attempts at sanction have little impact on the wealthy and hit the middle class the hardest).

And this is all on-par with what was done during the Cold War, nothing new under the sun. Make it last, make Russia bleed, wait for Russian politics to remove Putin from power - that's really the only thing that will cause Russia to stop pushing into the grinder.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

I see what you're saying, but if Putin can successfully sell to the majority of his people that they're the good guys in Ukraine, then odds are he can do it with Poland or the Baltic States. And if nuclear war starts then what difference does it make if his people buy into his reasons for it or not? The world will be over as we know it anyways.

Unlikely. He can at least claim that there is a significant population of ethnic Russians in Ukraine crying out for liberation, but Poland? Estonia? Not a chance.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Crazy as he is I don't think he'd nuke a NATO country, but I could see him doing it to a defiant Kyiv once his other options are exhausted. He's trying to rebuild the USSR through military strength, not set up a trading partner.


Just takes one.

So all the people who would have to follow his orders to start a nuclear war wouldn't be crazy to follow them?

 

[ponderingturtle]

We nuke him back. Pretty sure even if the Russian stockpile IS all operational, which it won't be, and does have adequate launch capabilities, which I doubt

Yea I wouldn't want to place bets that their ICBM's have had proper maintenance for the past 30 years.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

None of this matters. It's a post-fact world. Putin is going to lie and the exact number of people will believe him or not anyway.

In the West. Russians might start to notice if, despite what Putin says, suddenly the savings they had to buy that new car won't buy a loaf of bread, and even if they could afford the car they can't buy it because it's German or Japanese or Korean and they can't access it anymore.

Even if they can keep their people fed with price fixing for essentials, this isn't the 1910s anymore. The lack of entertainment, utter exclusion from sports and the inability to go anywhere outside Russia's borders is going to bite and bite hard. The middle class won't be able to go anywhere and will find themselves virtually penniless, the poor will starve and even the Oligarchs will start to find that they can't keep making money. Eventually either Putin or the economy will collapse.

 

[JoeMorgue]

In the West. Russians might start to notice if, despite what Putin says, suddenly the savings they had to buy that new car won't buy a loaf of bread, and even if they could afford the car they can't buy it because it's German or Japanese or Korean and they can't access it anymore..

We watched 4 years of the Trumpers lives getting worse and worse and Putin taught Trump that game.