The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Klimax]

And for some of our uber skeptics:
https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619312705540098

And don't forget to scroll down...

At this point I am thinking that Ukrainians might be actually under counting Russian losses...

 

[Michel H]

Communications infrastructure is a legitimate target.

Military communications infrastructure, perhaps (in the case of a legitimate war), but there is no right to murder civilian journalists or technicians, which provide important information to the ordinary citizen.

 

[theprestige]

Putin knows he can't win this. It's now just a matter of how many civilians he wants to murder before it's all over.

It's still not clear to me what his actual victory conditions are supposed to be. I can list a number of things I think he could have as victory conditions. Things I think he probably should have. Things that would be pretty frickin' victorious if he did them. Taking Kiev and capturing Zelensky is at the top of that list.

But for all I know, Putin may well be of the opinion that securing the Donbass region as a puppet state and jumping-off point for future aggression is winning enough for now. And I think that whatever happens, Putin is going to win at least that much.

 

[theprestige]

There were reports of them being used back in 2015 as well, but those stories didn't come from reliable sources either.

Honestly mobile crematoria seems like a potentially good idea, from a health and hygiene point of view. Having piles of bodies stacking up in a major conflict can't be a good thing.

 

[theprestige]

At this point I am thinking that Ukrainians might be actually under counting Russian losses...

I still think at least some of these Russian losses must be Russian commanders changing their unit's paper strength to more closely match their unit's real strength, without getting in trouble for misreporting their paper strength for the past several years.

"We sent in E Company, First Battalion, and they got totally wiped out. So don't be surprised if you can't find E Company anywhere in our order of battle right now."

 

[Andy_Ross]

Still a surprising lack of activity from the Russian air force.

I was reading something earlier (can't find it now) that was pointing out the lack of flying hours and actual practical combat training of most Russian pilots.
That could be a factor. Close air support is a specialised and skilled role.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

A new pact in spirit. A collection of bad actors around the world who are unified in their being left out in the cold while the "good guys" hang out at the UN. The whole point of the UN is to give even the bad actors a voice, some input into world affairs, rather than leaving them alone to nurse their grievances in solitude, or in secret solidarity with other bad actors.

Kicking Russia out of the UN would make things worse, not better. Making that the beginning of a trend of kicking out annoying nations would end up creating an anti-UN that would make things a lot worse in the long run.

The UN has never been much use for resolving disputes between member nations. It's not surprising that it's largely toothless to do anything about Russian aggression.

Like you say, it's still worthwhile to have a forum where the entire global community can discuss matters. On issues that are largely uncontroversial, the UN occasionally does good work that might not have been possible without cooperation.

 

[Klimax]

I still think at least some of these Russian losses must be Russian commanders changing their unit's paper strength to more closely match their unit's real strength, without getting in trouble for misreporting their paper strength for the past several years.

"We sent in E Company, First Battalion, and they got totally wiped out. So don't be surprised if you can't find E Company anywhere in our order of battle right now."

Hm, Potěmkin's army. Might also explain very slow advance. (Hard to win when soldiers that should be there aren't there)

Still a surprising lack of activity from the Russian air force.

I was reading something earlier (can't find it now) that was pointing out the lack of flying hours and actual practical combat training of most Russian pilots.
That could be a factor. Close air support is a specialised and skilled role.

Also lack of communications. You can't contact Air support with those civilian radios.

 

[lobosrul5]

The UN has never been much use for resolving disputes between member nations. It's not surprising that it's largely toothless to do anything about Russian aggression.

Like you say, it's still worthwhile to have a forum where the entire global community can discuss matters. On issues that are largely uncontroversial, the UN occasionally does good work that might not have been possible without cooperation.

Unless I'm very much mistaken, the UN Security council requires a unanimous vote by the 5 permanent members on any resolution. As Russia is one of those 5 members its rather unlikely that anything any significant will pass.

 

[Jimbo07]

Still a surprising lack of activity from the Russian air force.

I was reading something earlier (can't find it now) that was pointing out the lack of flying hours and actual practical combat training of most Russian pilots.
That could be a factor. Close air support is a specialised and skilled role.

Rolling CNN feed says Ukraine air force is still active, but Russian air force is dominant in some regions. Ukraine is asking for more air-defence weapons.

Seriously, though, readiness is expensive. I don't think there's a military in the world that doesn't whinge about budget cuts. In the West, only 2 hours of flying an F-35 on training missions would wipe out the average person's annual salary. Even an old jet trainer can cost $5000 an hour to fly! Some Western commentators complain about their countries' small militaries, but are those larger militaries kept at high readiness?

 

[lobosrul5]

Rolling CNN feed says Ukraine air force is still active, but Russian air force is dominant in some regions. Ukraine is asking for more air-defence weapons.

Seriously, though, readiness is expensive. I don't think there's a military in the world that doesn't whinge about budget cuts. In the West, only 2 hours of flying an F-35 on training missions would wipe out the average person's annual salary. Even an old jet trainer can cost $5000 an hour to fly! In no small part, the limited training budget is one of the differences between military flight training and civvie street. I've got a private pilot's licence. You can always pay for another check ride prep flight. I'm allowed to keep flying as long as my money holds out. Military training units have limited budgets, and those people have to pass check flights on a much more constricted timeline. Some Western commentators complain about their countries' small militaries, but are those larger militaries kept at high readiness?

I know an F-16 pilot in the ANG and I'd say yeah he gets a decent amount of stick time.

 

[Michel H]

Unless I'm very much mistaken, the UN Security council requires a unanimous vote by the 5 permanent members on any resolution. As Russia is one of those 5 members its rather unlikely that anything any significant will pass.

No, I don't think a unanimous vote is required, permanent members can abstain or veto the resolution. I think it would be interesting to give the General Assembly a right to suspend the veto power of a permanent member for three months (for example).

 

[Checkmite]

And for some of our uber skeptics:
https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619312705540098

This lends some context to Ukraine's urgent pleas of a couple of days ago to regional telecom providers to block roaming Russian SIM cards. Forward Russian forces may have been having to resort to contacting command leaders by phone. It might explain why Russia hasn't been frequency jamming or attacking telecom infrastructure, attacking power plants, etc - they need that stuff to stay working so they can use it themselves.

It might even explain why some units have been found stranded and passive, or some equipment has been found just abandoned in the field. If the "rank and file" were never briefed on a "bigger picture" then when they lose communications they literally don't know what they should be doing.

 

[Jimbo07]

I know an F-16 pilot in the ANG and I'd say yeah he gets a decent amount of stick time.

Sorry, when I said larger, I was excluding the United States, which has the largest military budget in the world. Even US commentators often decry cuts to training budgets.

I meant countries which typically try to maintain a large military on paper, but have garbage in reality.

 

[Arcade22]

Russia has effectively banned the last independent "TV station" (it was only available online, as it was prohibited from being airing on TV). They also shut down the last independent Moscow radio station. They are now threatening to ban Wikipedia.

It should be emphasized that all major sources of news and information in Russia are under state control. All of the major TV and radio channels, as well as newspapers and their online offerings, receive directives from the Kremlin about what they are supposed to emphasize and deemphasize. Alternative and independent sources of news have had extremely limited reach for a long time.

 

[theprestige]

Sorry, when I said larger, I was excluding the United States, which has the largest military budget in the world. Even US commentators often decry cuts to training budgets.

I meant countries which typically try to maintain a large military on paper, but have garbage in reality.

Also it should probably be noted that the USN, at least, seems to be having trouble maintaining a high state of readiness for decades at a time.

 

[lobosrul5]

Sorry, when I said larger, I was excluding the United States, which has the largest military budget in the world. Even US commentators often decry cuts to training budgets.

I meant countries which typically try to maintain a large military on paper, but have garbage in reality.

Oh yes, and I think Russia and maybe China are the two primary examples of that.

 

[jimbob]

Sorry, when I said larger, I was excluding the United States, which has the largest military budget in the world. Even US commentators often decry cuts to training budgets.

I meant countries which typically try to maintain a large military on paper, but have garbage in reality.

And this, coupled with lots of fancy-looking equipment is probably why Russia missed out on a lot of the enabling stuff that's less boring and doesn't look good on a May Day Parade

 

[lobosrul5]

Russia has effectively banned the last independent "TV station" (it was only available online, as it was prohibited from being airing on TV). They also shut down the last independent Moscow radio station. They are now threatening to ban Wikipedia.

It should be emphasized that all major sources of news and information in Russia are under state control. All of the major TV and radio channels, as well as newspapers and their online offerings, receive directives from the Kremlin about what they are supposed to emphasize and deemphasize. Alternative and independent sources of news have had extremely limited reach for a long time.

CNN correspondent in Moscow was saying the younger people in Russia largely ignore the state media and are relying on VPN's to access social media. The wool isn't being pulled over their eyes except for the most gullible.

 

[theprestige]

At this point I'm wondering if a well-maintained, well-supplied Red Army battalion would perform better than their modern Russian counterparts.

Radio comms over open airwaves? Check.

Limited coordination between infantry, artillery, and air? Check.