The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[welshdean]

There are already reports of jams.

Oh good God, don't tell me the W.I. have sent a crack team in.

 

[Arcade22]

BBC Rolling

Russian column near Kyiv hampered by breakdowns

Frank Gardner

BBC Security Correspondent

A handout satellite image made available by Maxar Technologies shows northern section of convoy southeast of Ivankiv, Ukraine, 28 February 2022
EPA/Maxar TechnologiesCopyright: EPA/Maxar Technologies
Some clarity on that massive Russian armoured column heading south towards Kyiv.

Close analysis of the latest satellite images by McKenzie Intelligence Services reveals the following:

The convoy is not 40 miles long, it’s a series of logistical ‘packets’ strung out along a major highway from the Belarus border, aiming to link up with Russian units on the northern outskirts of Kyiv.
The convoy appears to be hampered in several places by broken down vehicles.
The column consists of some armour (tanks) and infantry fighting vehicles but mainly logistical vehicles, implying plans for more than just a brief battle.
Separately, the imagery examined by McKenzie Intelligence Services shows a Russian parachute battalion dug in to the area of Hostomel airfield - Ukraine's most important international cargo airport and a key military airbase near Kyiv.

But their artillery is assessed to be outside the range of most of the capital.

The analysts say they have noted very little Russian progress over the last 24 hours.

Yeah the notion of a "20+ miles long convoy" makes no sense when it's been there for days. A convoy is supposed to move somewhere, not just stay in place and grow in size. If it's a convoy "heading to Kiev" why isn't there yet?

 

[wobs]

How many Russian troops need to give up before it becomes unmanageable and they all give up?

Am I the only one who suspects (from my non-expert point of view) that their numbers may overcome their shortcomings.
Or it will lead to far more bloodshed than it needs to to acheive their objectives.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

At this point it seems the Ukrainians can ignore the Russian vehicles and just wait for them to break down on their own.

Pathetic Putin, absolutely pathetic.

 

[theprestige]

Maybe US could loan a couple of A10 for some runs on this “40-mile convoy.”

Yeah, two squadrons of A10s could make a mess of it. Remember the highway to hell during the first gulf war.

My first thought on reading about it.

Every Warthog pilot would volunteer for that mission in a minute.

Why such a fetish for the A-10? There are much better planes in NATO inventory these days for that mission. The F-16, the F-15E, the B-1B, the Typhoon, the Rafale, of course the F-35. Even the MQ-9. Though I suppose if you can get a Reaper drone over Russian supply lines unmolested, you might as well send a Warthog. Or a Tucano.

I guess my real point is, this whole invasion falls apart the moment NATO decides to start bombing these convoys everyone seems to know about and be taking pictures of. Speaking of which, why isn't whatever is taking pictures of these convoys not shooting at them?

 

[JoeMorgue]

Speaking of which, why isn't whatever is taking pictures of these convoys not shooting at them?

Because they are in space and the Libruls won't let us build a Death Star.

 

[Andy_Ross]

One thing I have noticed is that the destroyed tanks,)by which I mean the actual tanks, not other tracked vehicle is that like those from the Gulf when they are hit they are going up in a catastrophic way.
One of the big failings of Russian tank design is that the ammunition for the autoloader is in unprotected 'carousels' under the open turret floor. When they are hit it explodes in a spectacular fashion.
You will see a lot of pictures of T-72s with their turrets blown clean off and resting a good few meters away. If they have retained the turret it will be off the mounting ring and the hulls will have completely burned out.
Western tanks designs separate the ammunition in to it's own armoured stowage with water jackets and have 'blow off' panels in the turret roof to divert any explosion away from the crew compartment.
It must be very demoralising to see the tank in front distribute itself over the landscape when it's own ammunition explodes.

 

[lobosrul5]

Why such a fetish for the A-10? There are much better planes in NATO inventory these days for that mission. The F-16, the F-15E, the B-1B, the Typhoon, the Rafale, of course the F-35. Even the MQ-9. Though I suppose if you can get a Reaper drone over Russian supply lines unmolested, you might as well send a Warthog. Or a Tucano.

I guess my real point is, this whole invasion falls apart the moment NATO decides to start bombing these convoys everyone seems to know about and be taking pictures of. Speaking of which, why isn't whatever is taking pictures of these convoys not shooting at them?

You are absolutely correct. In fact, I imagine something like a B1 would be most effective against a convoy lined nice and neatly on a road. A single B1 can carry 84 * 500 lb bombs. Probably enough to destroy every vehicle on a mile long stretch of road. A-10's would be the better choice for knocking out deployed tanks with Maverick missiles.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

That sounds a monumentally stupid design. Why on Earth would they build them like that?

ETA: As there was a post between mine and the one I'm replying to, I meant the Russian tanks, not the various bombers.

 

[Meadmaker]

Why such a fetish for the A-10? There are much better planes in NATO inventory these days for that mission. The F-16, the F-15E, the B-1B, the Typhoon, the Rafale, of course the F-35. Even the MQ-9. Though I suppose if you can get a Reaper drone over Russian supply lines unmolested, you might as well send a Warthog. Or a Tucano.

I guess my real point is, this whole invasion falls apart the moment NATO decides to start bombing these convoys everyone seems to know about and be taking pictures of. Speaking of which, why isn't whatever is taking pictures of these convoys not shooting at them?

What Joe said,

but I'll bet the people taking the pictures are feeding them to Ukranian military units, with timestamps and geolocation.

 

[Ziggurat]

Speaking of which, why isn't whatever is taking pictures of these convoys not shooting at them?

There are a lot of light drones which aren't equipped to carry weapons. Drones which can are necessarily much larger and more expensive, and likely make a nice target for Russian anti-aircraft fire.

 

[ponderingturtle]

That sounds a monumentally stupid design. Why on Earth would they build them like that?

ETA: As there was a post between mine and the one I'm replying to, I meant the Russian tanks, not the various bombers.

To keep the crew smaller with having an auto loader instead of a person to load the shell. I think they can also be faster loading than a person. And it shows how much they care if the crew gets cooked along with the tank.

 

[Andy_Ross]

BBC Rolling

Russian column near Kyiv hampered by breakdowns

Frank Gardner

BBC Security Correspondent

A handout satellite image made available by Maxar Technologies shows northern section of convoy southeast of Ivankiv, Ukraine, 28 February 2022
EPA/Maxar TechnologiesCopyright: EPA/Maxar Technologies
Some clarity on that massive Russian armoured column heading south towards Kyiv.

Close analysis of the latest satellite images by McKenzie Intelligence Services reveals the following:

The convoy is not 40 miles long, it’s a series of logistical ‘packets’ strung out along a major highway from the Belarus border, aiming to link up with Russian units on the northern outskirts of Kyiv.
The convoy appears to be hampered in several places by broken down vehicles.
The column consists of some armour (tanks) and infantry fighting vehicles but mainly logistical vehicles, implying plans for more than just a brief battle.
Separately, the imagery examined by McKenzie Intelligence Services shows a Russian parachute battalion dug in to the area of Hostomel airfield - Ukraine's most important international cargo airport and a key military airbase near Kyiv.

But their artillery is assessed to be outside the range of most of the capital.

The analysts say they have noted very little Russian progress over the last 24 hours.

Which is exactly what I said the so called 'convoy' was this morning.

As for the number of logistics vehicles suggesting 'plans for more than a brief battle' I don't think most people appreciate the sheer quantity of fuel, food and ammunition needed to keep even a single Division fighting in the field, as the Russians seem to be discovering themselves.

If you aren't getting the supplies to the front, they can't advance, there is a minimum level of supply needed just to keep them in place, you have to supply above that minimum to build up enough reserve to advance.
As I have been saying since the start 5 days is usually reckoned to be the limit of endurance before you need to rest, resupply and prepare for any further action.

 

[theprestige]

What have you done to check the authenticity before posting here?

Seriously, why is this forum mostly just a news digest / re-blog, with personal ad-hoc opinions?
We all know how to get the latest sensations from all the ordinary outlets of traditional media and social media. And we all have opinions.

What I am missing here, hour after hour, is skeptical discourse - fact-checking and the like.

Are you all happy that Skepticism is not happening on ISF?

Calm down. It's only been a week. There's not a lot of facts to check yet. Even 9/11 needed some months to generate enough publicly-available information to do a proper debunking of conspiracy theories.

The Apollo Hoax is pretty easy to debunk today, decades after the fact. So much of the information has been put online. So much of the basic research has already been thoroughly done. I bet it would have been a lot harder to refute hoax claims in the 70s.

A lot of the facts of this invasion won't really be known until later, after the dust settles and well-funded and supported experts have been able to make their initial analyses of the accumulated information.

In the mean time, we're going to repeat what we've heard, and discuss, and speculate, and wait for more and better information to trickle out. If you can do better, do better. If you can't, join us in good faith. If you don't want to, find some other thread more to your liking.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Because they are in space and the Libruls won't let us build a Death Star.

Also on a more serious note, the reconnaissance assets might be unarmed small drones or from nations not currently involved in combat here. I mean I am sure the US has reconnaissance drones keeping an eye on the situation.

 

[theprestige]

And of course there is tons of Truth to that:
Poland is blatantly racist in who they let in who they try to keep out. Their current government was voted in on a promise of shutting out immigration. Of course this meant "no brown or dark refugees" - and they have been very tough on that. But 300,000 fellow Slavs? No problem.

Fake news. Has this been properly fact-checked? Is there a good skeptical take on this somewhere we can evaluate?

 

[Ziggurat]

That sounds a monumentally stupid design. Why on Earth would they build them like that?

ETA: As there was a post between mine and the one I'm replying to, I meant the Russian tanks, not the various bombers.

Because it allows for the use of auto-loaders. US tanks cannot use auto-loaders because of the separation of ammunition storage from the turret.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Gg3ca-qY0SE

 

[jimbob]

Why such a fetish for the A-10? There are much better planes in NATO inventory these days for that mission. The F-16, the F-15E, the B-1B, the Typhoon, the Rafale, of course the F-35. Even the MQ-9. Though I suppose if you can get a Reaper drone over Russian supply lines unmolested, you might as well send a Warthog. Or a Tucano.
I guess my real point is, this whole invasion falls apart the moment NATO decides to start bombing these convoys everyone seems to know about and be taking pictures of. Speaking of which, why isn't whatever is taking pictures of these convoys not shooting at them?

You can send a Reaper drone into places where it is contested, because you don't lose the pilot.

The Ukrainians have some Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones which seem to have been successful in combat

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Oh, the Ukrainians are making a point of saying that the TV tower that was hit was right by a Holocaust memorial.

The Russians are just awful at every aspect of this.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Because it allows for the use of auto-loaders. US tanks cannot use auto-loaders because of the separation of ammunition storage from the turret.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Gg3ca-qY0SE

Thank you.

That poses the question I suppose of what's more important, having auto-loaders or not being in a metal coffin liable to go up like a firework because you're right by the ammo.