The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[The Don]

Last week almost no one was predicting Ukraine would hold out this long.

Really ?

I don't recall too many predictions about how long Ukraine would last either here or in the wider media.

 

[Ryokan]

In other news, I stumbled across Darth Putin's twitter channel. I suppose I should say that there may be a slight chance the author is not actually Vladimir Putin, because this is a rational skeptics site and we all have to assume you randos wouldn't get it otherwise.
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1498396727900057602

I wonder why we haven't seen the Carl Gustav in Ukraine, or why it's not on the list of a weapon that is sent to them. Not even by the Swedes.

Easier to use the disposable LAW and NLAW?

 

[crescent]

But... but... how do we know what anyone expected?

Well, the way Russia published its self congratulatory memo that praised Putin for winning the war. Published right on schedule, then retracted. The Pakistani news outlet "The Frontier Post" had already downloaded it an translated it, it is still on their website.

The new world order

Here's the original in Russian, archived on the Wayback Machine. Google translate can flip it into whatever language you want (imprefectly, but still useful).

Наступление России и нового мира

This isn't over, and I fear things will get much, much worse before they get better. But I still get strong feel of schadenfreude when I read that and see the level of hubris that the Russian government was expressing leading up to this.


(ETA: ...and after having written this, I now get the feeling that I Timhau's sarcasm. Gotta not post until after the second cup of coffee)

 

[Andy_Ross]

You sound awfully confident for someone who was so utterly skeptical over Russia invading in the first place.

I was very skeptical about invasion too. Russia hadn't assembled the numbers they needed to do it.
I was wrong, they did invade but I was right about them not having the numbers they needed.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Common pattern on internet skeptic forums, someone writes something I don't like, "citation needed", write something I like, I don't even notice there's no citation.



I thought the snake island thing was still unconfirmed either way. This is basically the story with all breaking news. First week or two news is mostly wrong. With war, generally takes years to figure out the truth.

Last week almost no one was predicting Ukraine would hold out this long.

Because most people seemed to think Russia had a super, all conquering army that would sweep away all before it. they believed the Russian propaganda.

 

[Ryokan]

Television broadcast tower taken out in Kiev.

The Russians finally got around to start taking out communication.

 

[ahhell]

Things certainly do not be going the way you'd think they would.

I still think the world is in for a rude awakening. Russian military is going to get their **** together sooner and later, and so long as Putin is willing to remain an international pariah there's very little hope that Ukraine can indefinitely hold back the larger Russian military.

Unfortunately, I think that is correct. The mid term odds are not in Ukraine's favor. I do think the longer they hold out in the short term it will make it more likely that a decade from now there might be an independent Ukraine, even when a year from now there is not.

I do think that Putin really does believe Ukrainians are just Russians with funny accents who don't like to admit it. Which probably lead him to believe this would go quick and easy.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Television broadcast tower taken out in Kiev.

The Russians finally got around to start taking out communication.

BBC showing the tower still standing on their rolling feed smoke around it but it's still there. They say
"A large plume of smoke has risen near the TV tower in Kyiv. It's unclear if the tower was directly hit. Footage appearing on social media - which the BBC has verified - shows an explosion in the area."

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I do think that Putin really does believe Ukrainians are just Russians with funny accents who don't like to admit it. Which probably lead him to believe this would go quick and easy.

There's a nugget of truth in that Ukrainians and Russians are very closely related. It probably goes to explain the some of the poor morale shown by some Russian troops. Many Ukranians also speak fluent Russian. Hell, some of these regions are primarily populated by ethnic Russians who speak Russian as their primary language.

It's one thing to invade and occupy a country full of foreigners you don't understand culturally or can even communicate with, it's another to be despised by a population just like you speaking your native language fluently and using those language skills to call you a monster.

Morale has to be in the toilet for many of these Russian forces.

 

[Arcade22]

Well, the way Russia published its self congratulatory memo that praised Putin for winning the war. Published right on schedule, then retracted. The Pakistani news outlet "The Frontier Post" had already downloaded it an translated it, it is still on their website.

The new world order

Here's the original in Russian, archived on the Wayback Machine. Google translate can flip it into whatever language you want (imprefectly, but still useful).

Наступление России и нового мира

The person who wrote this is basically the archetypal vatnik, screaming how it's time Russia regained its true glory and showed the west whose the boss around here. RUSSIA STRONGK! WE WAR YOU!! CCCP 2.0!!!

...Meanwhile reality ensues and they have trouble dragging themselves out of the pool of vomit and urine they are laying in.

 

[Galaxie]

This account has had a good reputation for posting verified stuff:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498447549493092352

Ukrainian Citizens are reporting that Russian Forces at a Depot in the Sumy Region abandoned the Outpost and fled into the woods during the night leaving behind, BMPs, BTR-80s, MT-LBs and Infantry Transport Vehicles there is no indication as to why they fled. (video embedded)

This one is probably UA propaganda:

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1498587998627282945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1498587998627282945%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_a72837ae-9972-11ec-88e6-2ab1ecea341b%2F0

Last night a large group of RU warships was about to launch landing on Odesa beaches. They approached the coast. RU was about to shell the beach. UA was about to shoot back, when they suddenly withdrew. Reports that marines from Crimea refused to attack Odesa.

 

[Jimbo07]

I wonder why we haven't seen the Carl Gustav in Ukraine,

Canada to the rescue!

Seriously, though, these are being taken from CAF stock, and they're already underfunded...

 

[Galaxie]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1498685248095375362?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1498685248095375362%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_85429872-9978-11ec-a6cd-7afd26720005%2F0

BREAKING: U.S. believes Russia has committed more than 80 percent of pre-staged troops into Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official.

Russia has not been able to advance on Kyiv due to fuel & sustainment problems. "Not only are they running out of gas, they're running out of food"

 

[Galaxie]

I had mentioned before that civilians (including me) have been able to listen in on some un-encypted Russian comms. Here is a thread about that:

https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619303717142529

...Using publicly available web radio receiveir (webSDR), callsigns of Russian military units and roles were discovered. Reports of losses, injuries, ... everything can be heard. Even them swearing at their own crew, such as in this recording.

*Last night about 11:00pm US Central time, there was quite a bit of chatter on 8090 kHz USB, but unfortunately I don't speak Russian

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Oh my god Russia, pushing more bodies and vehicles into the field when you can't feed or run them won't help. If anything it will make it WORSE because when the troops desert (which they will) or the vehicles are abandoned (which they will be) you are losing even more of your pitiful number of ready forces.

Just..what are they doing? Don't push in more troops, instead consolidate what forces you have got on the ground and prioritise logistics. This really isn't hard, you don't have to be Von Clausewitz to see how big a **** up Russia are making out of this.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

I had mentioned before that civilians have been able to listen in on some un-encypted Russian comms. Here is a thread about that:

https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619303717142529

Which indicates that either 1. The Russians are using civilian radio equipment, which is embarrassing or 2. They ARE using military equipment, but cannot or will not secure the channels, which is even worse.

 

[jimbob]

Which indicates that either 1. The Russians are using civilian radio equipment, which is embarrassing or 2. They ARE using military equipment, but cannot or will not secure the channels, which is even worse.

Bellingcat showed SM posts of Russians using FM radios. And reports of them using flares to coordinate

 

[MarkCorrigan]

BBC Rolling

Russian column near Kyiv hampered by breakdowns

Frank Gardner

BBC Security Correspondent

A handout satellite image made available by Maxar Technologies shows northern section of convoy southeast of Ivankiv, Ukraine, 28 February 2022
EPA/Maxar TechnologiesCopyright: EPA/Maxar Technologies
Some clarity on that massive Russian armoured column heading south towards Kyiv.

Close analysis of the latest satellite images by McKenzie Intelligence Services reveals the following:

The convoy is not 40 miles long, it’s a series of logistical ‘packets’ strung out along a major highway from the Belarus border, aiming to link up with Russian units on the northern outskirts of Kyiv.
The convoy appears to be hampered in several places by broken down vehicles.
The column consists of some armour (tanks) and infantry fighting vehicles but mainly logistical vehicles, implying plans for more than just a brief battle.
Separately, the imagery examined by McKenzie Intelligence Services shows a Russian parachute battalion dug in to the area of Hostomel airfield - Ukraine's most important international cargo airport and a key military airbase near Kyiv.

But their artillery is assessed to be outside the range of most of the capital.

The analysts say they have noted very little Russian progress over the last 24 hours.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Behold! The might of the Russian military! Hampered by their own vehicles breaking down miles from any combat.

I'm starting to think the Belarussian military would be scarier at this point.

 

[JoeMorgue]

(If necessary to maintain my ONE TRUE SKEPTICS status I will provide on request proof that the countries involved actually exist, that water is wet, and that the entire conflict isn't taken place inside the Matrix and/or Plato's Cave.)

I don't see how Russia wins this, but at the same time Russia not winning doesn't mean everyone else still can't lose.

From my perspective Putin was hoping for a quick victory that by the time the rest of the world decided if they wanted to get involved or could figure out how to get involved would already be over.

But the didn't get the quick and easy victory and a the world wound up more on Ukraine's side then he figured.

I don't think Putin is that kind of stupid, he knew he was going to be the bad guy in all of this, but I think he was going to come across as a strong bad guy and he didn't.

As I said earlier the fact that "Mighty Russia" is having trouble with the Ukraine is simply not something that the US, UK, China, the other major powers, NATO, and the EU are just not going to notice.

Putins next bluff isn't not going to be as effective.