The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[JoeMorgue]

Yes. Very effective propaganda.
Your point?

*Sighs* Never mind.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

Some modesty, some restraint, some carefulness.
We are not (or should not be) "randos". We should be very much skewed towards the "rational skepticism" side.
There should be a general tenor that everybody understands their understanding is limited, their information coming in degrees of dubiousness.

For starters, just DON'T post stuff that cannot be vetted, or at the very least, present it as possible fiction. Very importantly: Resist the urge to post unvettable stuff because it supports your pre-existing opinion.

Well, when I write up my manuscript, "Interesting Tweets I Found During the Ukraine Thing" for submission to the Journal of the International Skeptics Forum (JISF), of course more documentation would be called for.

In other news, I stumbled across Darth Putin's twitter channel. I suppose I should say that there may be a slight chance the author is not actually Vladimir Putin, because this is a rational skeptics site and we all have to assume you randos wouldn't get it otherwise.
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1498396727900057602

 

[JoeMorgue]

As a ONE TRUE SKEPTIC (Patent Pending) I can't prove that anyone in this thread is real, therefore complaints that we aren't be skeptical enough from them don't count.

 

[Oystein]

I think it depends on how you define phase I. If you just mean the capture of Kyiv, Kharkiv and a few other cities in the East then sure, I suspect Russia will (eventually) manage that.

If you mean the total conquest of Ukraine though? No. Not a chance.

That's a property of occupations in the 21st century, not one of the strength of armies.
Is the Russian army superior (to the UA defense forces)? Absolutely yes. As evidenced by the fact that the UA defences can do whatever heroism is in them, they will not prevent the capture of Mariupol, Charkiv, Kyiv, the loss of the East, the fall of their government.
Does it mean the occupation will go smooth and smelling like daisies? No. Totally different question.

 

[Sideroxylon]

Maybe we need a sober invitation only thread with links to CNN and BBC stories.

 

[Oystein]

As a ONE TRUE SKEPTIC (Patent Pending) I can't prove that anyone in this thread is real, therefore complaints that we aren't be skeptical enough from them don't count.

Don't be silly.
It's not necessary for the author to be "real" (whatever you might mean by that) for their claim to be true or untrue, proven or unproven, plausible or implausible. I would have no problem with posters being unreal. I DO have a problem with posters posting claims without even perceiving the need to check their veracity.

 

[timhau]

But the Ukrainians are stil doing far better than anyone expected.

But... but... how do we know what anyone expected?

 

[Arcade22]

Worldwide, the west is not winning the information war as much as we might think we are. Lots of posts from Asian and African nations sharply critical of Ukraine in all this, including many, many accusations of racism against Ukraine, claims that non-white people are not being allowed to evacaute.

I'm pretty sure that the problem is not with Ukraine. It's not like Ukraine has any real control over whom its neighbors will allow to enter their territory.

 

[Jimbo07]

For starters, just DON'T post stuff that cannot be vetted, or at the very least, present it as possible fiction. Very importantly: Resist the urge to post unvettable stuff because it supports your pre-existing opinion.

Well, there's not much that any of us, here, have the information or ability to vet. I'd recommend larger news outfits like CNN or BBC. There is still some journalistic investigation there. Where there isn't, they'll often provide disclaimers like: this information has yet to be verified by X.

Oddly, Russia's early difficulties with logistics and morale (as verified by NATO, not by forum posters) surprised me, and did NOT suport my pre-existing opinion! I don't think anyone here is under the illusion though, that things aren't going to get worse, before they get better.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

That's a property of occupations in the 21st century, not one of the strength of armies.
Is the Russian army superior (to the UA defense forces)? Absolutely yes. As evidenced by the fact that the UA defences can do whatever heroism is in them, they will not prevent the capture of Mariupol, Charkiv, Kyiv, the loss of the East, the fall of their government.
Does it mean the occupation will go smooth and smelling like daisies? No. Totally different question.

It's bigger. That doesn't mean it's superior. The fact that it's supply lines and logistics divisions are hopelessly corrupt and inefficient rather puts the lie to the claim it's superior. It's probably only going to win through attrition.

 

[Arcade22]

But there is a simple truth: Russia WILL win this phase of the war, Russia WILL take Kyiv. Russia WILL annex Luhansk and Donezk, and do some ethnic cleansing there.
Russia WILL succeed with their main goal: To **** Ukraine and reduce it to bits and pieces and, yes, de-militarized in terms of regular warfare.

You sound awfully confident for someone who was so utterly skeptical over Russia invading in the first place. I don't find it unlikely that Russia will be forced to back down and return to Status quo ante bellum.

That the Russians refuse to acknowledge losses at all just demonstrates how nervous and insecure they really are over this war. Their hearts are just not in it. Maybe they will tolerate tens of thousands deaths but i doubt it.

 

[Ryokan]

Really?
I had a tough exchange of posts with another poster here the other day, who insisted that the Russians are not at all superior.
But if we all agree that they WILL win Phase I - how is that not agreeing they are superior?

I guess that would depend how you define superior.

I would say the quality of the soldiers seem to be superior on the Ukrainian side, both in ability, weaponry and morale.

But the Russians have superior manpower and resources. So superior that I don't see how the Ukrainians can hold out in the long run.

I can't see anyone in this long thread that has predicted that Ukraine will beat back the Russians and win the war.

ETA: Damn, edited the wrong post.

 

[Oystein]

It's bigger. That doesn't mean it's superior. The fact that it's supply lines and logistics divisions are hopelessly corrupt and inefficient rather puts the lie to the claim it's superior. It's probably only going to win through attrition.

I was told no one here doubts they'll win. Did you not see that?
If winning is all but guaranteed, I call that "superior".
"Superior" does not necessarily mean "good" or "efficient". Just "very clearly stronger".

 

[Andy_Ross]

Ukraine is joining the EU to escape Putin's influence, whereas the UK left the EU because of it.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

I was told no one here doubts they'll win. Did you not see that?
If winning is all but guaranteed, I call that "superior".
"Superior" does not necessarily mean "good" or "efficient". Just "very clearly stronger".

Which it isn't, except that it can probably swamp Ukrainian forces in bodies.

 

[Arcade22]

Had the Russians been able to win quickly and just roll in with minimal resistance they might have been able to claim no one of theirs died but right now it's beginning to look like Baghdad Bob. Or rather it is like Baghdad Bob already.

 

[Ryokan]

Lots and lots of talk about the Indian students stuck in Ukraine, accusations that they are not being allowed on trains heading to the border, or not being allowed to cross the border.

Sadly, there's a lot of truth in that.

Over and over again a video gets shared of a black girl being denied entry onto a train, they push her away and then allow a white girl on.

There's lots of videos like that. Some were posted earlier.

ETA: Several videos posted by this guy:

https://twitter.com/Damilare_arah/status/1497654141350522880

 

[dasmiller]

Hi - long time lurker, very rare poster here. I've been enjoying this thread so thought I'd add something (hopefully interesting).

My brother has lived in Odessa for 12 years until last week. He was determined to stay, but when when he woke to missile strikes he decided it might be the time to get out. Him, his wife and his six year old packed some bags and paid a driver to take them to the Moldovan border. They are safe now and in the Moldovan capital (yeah, I had to look it up too) waiting on the dreadful hypocrites that are the UK government to sort his wife's visa.

So, the language school my brother managed had to take a Ukrainian partner - it's the law, plus you really need someone local to navigate the corruption and gangsters in Odessa. The guy the UK owner got was ex-soviet military who'd made a packet running cigarettes after the union went down and it all went to ****. A classic path from soldier to gangster to "biznizzman". Let's call him K.

He was one of these guys who was simultaneously a ******* idiot and a really scary dude. He told my brother some hair raising stories over a few beers. He also did stuff like drive around on a mid-life crisis Harley and get into road rage fights. Or lose a load of money in a Kyiv land development scam.

Anyway. Crazily, he's still in touch with my brother on Viber and is off round the country fighting with the militias, using his in-demand skills and training the "youngsters" in how to shoot an AK. Yesterday he said how he saved a Russian tank crew from being curb-stomped to death by villagers after their tank was captured. He said they really didn't know what was going on and were really confused that the militia K was running with were a Russian speaking brigade. They'd been told they were there to protect Russian speakers from mad Ukrainian fascists. The fact that K hardly spoke any Ukrainian but was still (more than) willing to fight and die for his country really blew their minds.

Also, can anyone in the UK please sign this (and linkify it!).

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/609530

Interesting, thanks for posting that.

I'm not UK so I can't sign the petition, but I can linkify it for you: UK petition to waive visa requirement for Ukrainian refugees

This is such a fast-moving thread!

 

[ahhell]

Because we're a bunch of randos scattered across the world, what do you expect, hard hitting war correspondence? Rather than REEEing at Wudang for not personally traveling to Ukraine and tracking down the source of his quote before having the temerity to share it with the rest of us elite skeptic intellectuals, maybe do some critical thinking of your own? Does anything about the quote ring as untrue to you? Do you have any specific details you think might help confirm or deny the account?

At this point we're not exactly at Sagan's dragon-in-the-garage level of extraordinary claim here, people who are collating evidence have pointed out the use of civilian radios by Russian troops before, the impractical under-rationing of troops sent in, and the overall complete lack of planning and coordination in the opening days of the invasion, all of which jibe with the quote. What else do you expect to see?

Please put away the "One True Skeptic" card.

Common pattern on internet skeptic forums, someone writes something I don't like, "citation needed", write something I like, I don't even notice there's no citation.

I swear to ******* God if WWII happened in 2022 half the internet would be like "Oh you see those people liberating the concentration camps? Well for some reason right now, in this exact moment, is it super important to me that I make sure you all see me reminding everyone that they aren't perfect either."

To be fair, there is tons of fake crap being passed off as photos or video footage from the current conflict. I've seen plenty of recycled stuff from the earlier fighting during the 2014-15 flare up being claimed as new, and even photos and footage not involving Russia or Ukraine being passed off as current. In one funny case, a photo of a young Palestinian girl shouting at an Israeli occupier was being passed off as a Ukrainian resistance photo. You know, in the famously arid Ukrainian deserts.

Earlier reports of Ukrainian border guards dying to the man on snake island turned out to be untrue, that most were in fact taken as POWs.

I don't think there's anything insidious at work here, rather just the fog of war type confusion plus a rush of uninformed outsiders taking to social media. There's probably a need for more skepticism and careful parsing of information to weed out the nonsense.

I thought the snake island thing was still unconfirmed either way. This is basically the story with all breaking news. First week or two news is mostly wrong. With war, generally takes years to figure out the truth.

I guess that would depend how you define superior.

I would say the quality of the soldiers seem to be superior on the Ukrainian side, both in ability, weaponry and morale.

But the Russians have superior manpower and resources. So superior that I don't see how the Ukrainians can hold out in the long run.

I can't see anyone in this long thread that has predicted that Ukraine will beat back the Russians and win the war.

Last week almost no one was predicting Ukraine would hold out this long.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Last week almost no one was predicting Ukraine would hold out this long.

Things certainly do not be going the way you'd think they would.

I still think the world is in for a rude awakening. Russian military is going to get their **** together sooner or later, and so long as Putin is willing to remain an international pariah there's very little hope that Ukraine can indefinitely hold back the larger Russian military.