The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Vixen]

Russia has banned 36 airlines from its airspace. This includes Finnair, which gets half of its turnover from being the connecting point for those travelling from the west to the far east (China, Korea, etc) with Helsinki being the transit point. Now it cannot operate, it is being seen as a disaster for the airline, which already had a couple of rotten years with the Covid-19 restrictions on travel.

 

[theprestige]

Most of the western hemisphere would be Spain.

Raises questions about the Louisiana Purchase. Should it revert to France, or did they sell it off fair and square?

Really, though, if we go down that road the entire western hemisphere belongs to the First Nations or whatever is the right term these days. They can sit back, start a pipe, and watch from afar as Europe tries to sort out which ethnic group belongs where.

**** got real for the Russians, I've heard that Pornhub is blocking Russian ISPs and only showing them a Ukrainian flag.

Pornhub is the weirdest force for good in the world to have emerged from the Information Age.

Also, I'm no longer calling it Vodka, its now freedom water!

Polish Victory Juice, or "wodka".

 

[Venom]

I think it was just a few years ago Lukashenko defiantly announced that there's no way Belarus would become a part of the Russian world.

 

[Manopolus]

Looks like the refugee count is up to half a million (according to France 24... got it in the background on YouTube).

 

[Mike!]

"Why Russia will lose this war"

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

It's a very long read but well worth it.

Finally got back to check this out, a very good read, indeed.

 

[Stacyhs]

Rather fond of the Finnish product myself.

Grey Goose made in France is good.

 

[GrandMasterFox]

It seems Netflix was told it has to add 20 Russian channels as part of their compliance and they refuse to do so now.

Not sure if it's a good thing or a bad thing. On the one hand, they don't partake with the propaganda. On the other hand, aren't they in and of themselves an alternative to the propaganda machine?

Or are the regulations already forbidding them from showing anything remotely related to news unapproved by Putin (random example: John Oliver)

 

[Beelzebuddy]

Pornhub is the weirdest force for good in the world to have emerged from the Information Age.

No, that's Chuck Tingle.

 

[Mike!]

Kind of silly, really. Germany could just turn it's nuclear power back on, assuming they haven't dismantled the plants already. Admittedly, that doesn't help with gas heating.

I heard on the radio earlier today, they've done just that.

 

[Michel H]

It seems to me there are some easy concessions Ukraine and its Western allies could easily make, and which would perhaps avoid further bloodshed and suffering:

(1) Accepting the independence of the two breakaway republics of Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk). Russia could station troops there if deemed necessary for protection, upon invitation from their respective goverments.

(2) Accepting that Crimea is part of Russia.

(3) Accepting that Ukraine will not be a NATO member for at least 10 years.

(4) Lifting all economic sanctions imposed on Russia (even those which existed before this recent attack by Russia) provided that all Russian troops have left Ukraine (where they shouldn't be). With the understanding that a lifting of sanctions would also be good for Western economies and ordinary citizens.

 

[Andy_Ross]

It seems to me there are some easy concessions Ukraine and its Western allies could easily make, and which would perhaps avoid further bloodshed and suffering:

(1) Accepting the independence of the two breakaway republics of Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk). Russia could station troops there if deemed necessary for protection, upon invitation from their respective goverments.

(2) Accepting that Crimea is part of Russia.

(3) Accepting that Ukraine will not be a NATO member for at least 10 years.

(4) Lifting all economic sanctions imposed on Russia (even those which existed before this recent attack by Russia) provided that all Russian troops have left Ukraine (where they shouldn't be). With the understanding that a lifting of sanctions would also be good for Western economies and ordinary citizens.

So just surrender then?

Quisling!

 

[dudalb]

It seems to me there are some easy concessions Ukraine and its Western allies could easily make, and which would perhaps avoid further bloodshed and suffering:

(1) Accepting the independence of the two breakaway republics of Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk). Russia could station troops there if deemed necessary for protection, upon invitation from their respective goverments.

(2) Accepting that Crimea is part of Russia.

(3) Accepting that Ukraine will not be a NATO member for at least 10 years.

(4) Lifting all economic sanctions imposed on Russia (even those which existed before this recent attack by Russia) provided that all Russian troops have left Ukraine (where they shouldn't be). With the understanding that a lifting of sanctions would also be good for Western economies and ordinary citizens.

I give you appeasment, 2022 style.

 

[JoeMorgue]

It seems to me there are some easy concessions Ukraine and its Western allies could easily make, and which would perhaps avoid further bloodshed and suffering:

(1) Accepting the independence of the two breakaway republics of Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk). Russia could station troops there if deemed necessary for protection, upon invitation from their respective goverments.

(2) Accepting that Crimea is part of Russia.

(3) Accepting that Ukraine will not be a NATO member for at least 10 years.

(4) Lifting all economic sanctions imposed on Russia (even those which existed before this recent attack by Russia) provided that all Russian troops have left Ukraine (where they shouldn't be). With the understanding that a lifting of sanctions would also be good for Western economies and ordinary citizens.

So give Russia what it wants, great idea. And when Russia wants Belgium they can have that too. You can roll out the red carpet.

 

[Paul2]

To what end would Putin escalate? Escalation won't replace his destroyed armored division or reestablish the momentum of his invasion. There's no law, written or unwritten, that says he has to just keep escalating and making the situation worse and worse for himself with no plausible benefit.

The end would be to regain some military advantage removed by the judicious use of Western nukes (which would be in response to Putin's initial use). I'm just spitballing, here, I am not a tactical nuclear strategist. I do know, however, that how an initial use of a low-yield nuke would or might be responded to, and how or whether that would elicit another response, etc., is uncharted territory, and thus dangerous for only that reason.

 

[crescent]

I heard on the radio earlier today, they've done just that.

Most of German nuke plants had not been turned off yet. Fortunately so, they were not yet at the point of no return.


The past 24 hours have seen no attempts at "Thunder Runs" of the sort that saw small isolated convoys enter and then be destroyed in Kharkiv and Sumy and Kyiv.

Also more attacks as civilian infrastructure and populations. Kharkiv was hit by a missile barrage in a residential area, Mariupol also seem to have been. The power is out in Mariupol.

A concern is that as this goes on, ineffective Russian commanders get removed, effective commanders get promoted (effective in the sense of the Russian military). They appear to be getting more risk averse and more willing to use inaccurate stand-off munitions against civilian targets.

This is balanced by the over-reliance on some of the more elite parts of the Russian military, like airborne troops. They have taken heavy casualties.

I am seeing some questions about deployment of some of Russia's newer tanks and other ground equipment - they are just not being seen very often (Armata tanks and such). People are also surprised at the limited use of Russian helicopters - they have thousands, but have only used a few hundred at most, and those in relatively small groups and only for short duration missions.

It almost seems like a Conspiracy Theory at this point (considering the social/political/morale impact that Russia's high casualty rates so far), but some are wondering if Russia is not holding back a big hunk of its best equipped ground forces for a big push. (I don't think so, just mentioning what I have read on twitter by various military analysists who are still surprised at how poorly Russia in performing here).

But the removal of ineffectual officers with replacement via promotion of effective ones is a real thing in war time. Some countries just churn through Generals and officers during wartime, and often end up better for it (like the U.S. in the Civil War, or Russia in WWII). Russia could still begin to show improvement and push the war into a different phase of combat, one more suited to their strengths.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

There's a 17 mile long column of Russian armour heading towards Kyiv.

Well damn. I mean that's a lot of vehicles.

 

[dudalb]

So give Russia what it wants, great idea. And when Russia wants Belgium they can have that too. You can roll out the red carpet.

All Michael H. needs is a derby hat and an umbrella to complete the Nevile Chamberlain imitation.

 

[Jimbo07]

But the removal of ineffectual officers with replacement via promotion of effective ones is a real thing in war time. Some countries just churn through Generals and officers during wartime, and often end up better for it (like the U.S. in the Civil War, or Russia in WWII). Russia could still begin to show improvement and push the war into a different phase of combat, one more suited to their strengths.

Sure, and because of things like this, many are warning not to get cocky about Russia, yet. It's especially true if they start to be more indiscriminate. It's an utter tragedy for Ukraine, and is just going to get worse, but analysts still seem surprised at Russia's peformance so far. Do they have a big surprise? If they do, will they blow it on Ukraine?

Their spend is going to be big, regardless. I suspect it's going to be a while before before they can fully rebuild. Expect the aircraft carrier upgrades to be pushed back...

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

It seems to me there are some easy concessions Ukraine and its Western allies could easily make, and which would perhaps avoid further bloodshed and suffering:

(1) Accepting the independence of the two breakaway republics of Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk). Russia could station troops there if deemed necessary for protection, upon invitation from their respective goverments.

(2) Accepting that Crimea is part of Russia.

(3) Accepting that Ukraine will not be a NATO member for at least 10 years.

(4) Lifting all economic sanctions imposed on Russia (even those which existed before this recent attack by Russia) provided that all Russian troops have left Ukraine (where they shouldn't be). With the understanding that a lifting of sanctions would also be good for Western economies and ordinary citizens.

For those of us who don't believe the Russian invasion was to "protect" the Russian-speaking majorities in Crimea, Donetsk, and Lugansk, (3) would not be acceptable. Giving Russia control of Donetsk and Lugansk would allow them to start the next invasion from a more forward position in the east.

 

[Oystein]

Kind of silly, really. Germany could just turn it's nuclear power back on, assuming they haven't dismantled the plants already. Admittedly, that doesn't help with gas heating.

Yes, so that's a silly idea. I explained some days ago already that natural gas and nuclear electricity have very little overlap in practical uses. Easily more than half the gas is used for heating, most of the rest in industry. Only 14% are used to generate electricity, where gas plants typically have the role of supplementing basic power plants (such as nuclear) with fast-reacting capability to turn up and down output to follow changing demand. Nuclear plants just cannot substitute gas plants in this, their most important, role.