The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Michel H]

Christo Grozev Bellingcat exec director say that he's been receiving messages from Chechen sources that after huge losses of Kadyrov's personal "army" (in particular 70 of them were reported charred alive after a single Bayraktar strike), most of the rest returned across the border.

This is very impressive (from a military standpoint). These Turkish drones are very powerful. Wikipedia explains:

The Bayraktar TB2 is a Turkish medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) capable of remotely controlled or autonomous flight operations. It is manufactured by the Turkish company Baykar Defence, primarily for the Turkish Armed Forces.[3] The aircraft is monitored and controlled by an aircrew in the Ground Control Station, including weapons employment, via Türksat satellite.[4] Bayraktar means "ensign" or "standard-bearer" in Turkish.[5] The development of the UAV has been largely credited to Selçuk Bayraktar, a former MIT graduate student.
...
As a part of its military modernization program the Armed Forces of Ukraine acquired 12 Bayraktar TB2s in 2019.[106][107] After the successful use of the aircraft, the Ukrainian Navy made a separate order of 6 additional Bayraktar TB2s, delivered in 2020 according to navy officials.[108] Meanwhile, Turkish and Ukrainian officials have announced the establishment of a joint venture to produce 48 additional Bayraktar TB2s in Ukraine.[109]

During a Russian military buildup in Crimea and near Ukraine's borders, a Bayraktar TB2 conducted a reconnaissance flight over the Donbas region on 9 April 2021. This was the first operationalization of the aircraft by the Ukrainian Forces within an active conflict zone.[110][111] In October 2021, a Bayraktar TB2 drone was used for the first time in combat during the war, targeting a Russian separatist artillery position, destroying a D-30 howitzer, and halting the bombardment of Ukrainian troops near Hranitne.[112] During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has been used against Russian supply convoys.[113] Ukraine's ministry of defense credits the UAV system with "eviscerating Russian tanks and armor in their first use in a major conflict"[114]

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baykar_Bayraktar_TB2)

Perhaps Ukraine's Western allies could give Ukraine money to buy or produce locally more of these unmanned combat aerial vehicles. Turkey (which is a NATO member) could perhaps also ban export of Bayraktars to Russia (if necessary).

The BBC reports:

Huge Russian convoy advances on Kyiv
According to Maxar Technologies, the satellite-imaging company that released the photos, the convoy is nearly 17 miles long (27km) and "contains hundreds of armoured vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and logistics support vehicles".

Imagine what good fighters-bombers, perhaps supplied by Western countries, could do to such convoys ...

 

[Oystein]

It seems to me there are some easy concessions Ukraine and its Western allies could easily make...

Can you think of easy concessions that Russia could make?
I can:

1. Pull back all troops into Russia and return them to their home bases
2. Tell the thugs of the phony "people's republics" that they are on their own now and better go home
3. Pay for the damage they caused in Ukraine and offer a sincere apology

Sounds good?

 

[crescent]

Interesting summary from the Institute for the Study of War:

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 28, 2022

Immediate Items to Watch

• Russian forces advancing north and east from Crimea threaten to cut off Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine if Kyiv does not withdraw them in the coming days.
• Russian forces began using artillery against residential areas in Kharkiv on February 28, likely signaling a dangerous new phase of Russian operations.
• Russian forces face growing morale and supply issues but will likely be able to overcome these handicaps.
• Russian forces continue to refrain from using their likely full spectrum of air and missile capabilities. The Ukrainian air force also remains active. Russian operations will likely steadily wear down Ukrainian air capabilities and eventually take the Ukrainian air force out of the fight.
• Russia has sufficient conventional military power to reinforce each of its current axes of advance and overpower the conventional Ukrainian forces defending them.

My take is that the Southern front is key right now. Mariupol may be surrounded and there's a chance that Russia(from Crimea) and Russia(separatists) could connect cut off a big chunk of the Ukrainian military from any sort of resupply or withdrawal.

There will be a lot of drama around Kyiv, but I don't think Russia has much chance of a big strategic victory there yet. In the south, they can score such a big victory in the next day or two if Ukraine can't get more supplies, reinforcements, and air support through to that area.

 

[Michel H]

So give Russia what it wants, great idea. And when Russia wants Belgium they can have that too. You can roll out the red carpet.

No, Russia cannot have Belgium because Belgian citizens are certainly not interested in becoming Russian (Belgium is not like Crimea).

RT.com reports:

Putin stressed, however, that a settlement was possible “only if Russia's legitimate security interests were unconditionally taken into account,” which includes “the recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, the fulfillment of the tasks of demilitarizing and denazifying the Ukrainian state and ensuring its neutral status.”

(https://www.rt.com/russia/550880-putin-macron-ukraine-conditions/)

It seem to me that the highlighted part is completely unacceptable, Mr. Putin.

Ukraine is not Nazi Germany, it is not planning to invade Russia (nor does NATO). Ukraine is an independant country, it is no longer part of the Soviet Union, and it is perfectly entitled to having a military of its own.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Most of German nuke plants had not been turned off yet. Fortunately so, they were not yet at the point of no return.


The past 24 hours have seen no attempts at "Thunder Runs" of the sort that saw small isolated convoys enter and then be destroyed in Kharkiv and Sumy and Kyiv.

Also more attacks as civilian infrastructure and populations. Kharkiv was hit by a missile barrage in a residential area, Mariupol also seem to have been. The power is out in Mariupol.

A concern is that as this goes on, ineffective Russian commanders get removed, effective commanders get promoted (effective in the sense of the Russian military). They appear to be getting more risk averse and more willing to use inaccurate stand-off munitions against civilian targets.

This is balanced by the over-reliance on some of the more elite parts of the Russian military, like airborne troops. They have taken heavy casualties.

I am seeing some questions about deployment of some of Russia's newer tanks and other ground equipment - they are just not being seen very often (Armata tanks and such). People are also surprised at the limited use of Russian helicopters - they have thousands, but have only used a few hundred at most, and those in relatively small groups and only for short duration missions.

It almost seems like a Conspiracy Theory at this point (considering the social/political/morale impact that Russia's high casualty rates so far), but some are wondering if Russia is not holding back a big hunk of its best equipped ground forces for a big push. (I don't think so, just mentioning what I have read on twitter by various military analysists who are still surprised at how poorly Russia in performing here).

But the removal of ineffectual officers with replacement via promotion of effective ones is a real thing in war time. Some countries just churn through Generals and officers during wartime, and often end up better for it (like the U.S. in the Civil War, or Russia in WWII). Russia could still begin to show improvement and push the war into a different phase of combat, one more suited to their strengths.

If they aren't running convoys they aren't being resupplied.

On paper they have thousands of helicopters but there aren't thousands that can fly and there aren't thousands of aircrew and pilots for them.
They aren't flying many missions because they haven't established air superiority yet and the Ukraine forces are bristling with Stingers and other Manpads.

Same with the Armata tanks, they are crap anyway.

Where would these new, effective officers come from?

 

[Michel H]

Can you think of easy concessions that Russia could make?
I can:

1. Pull back all troops into Russia and return them to their home bases
2. Tell the thugs of the phony "people's republics" that they are on their own now and better go home
3. Pay for the damage they caused in Ukraine and offer a sincere apology

Sounds good?

I don't know how "phony" the "people's republics" are, and whether they are really run by thugs (haven't heard of any protest against the government there, though).

I don't think Russia is currently ready to accept your proposed concessions.

 

[Andy_Ross]

There's a 17 mile long column of Russian armour heading towards Kyiv.

Well damn. I mean that's a lot of vehicles.

It's called a traffic jam, or a huge target depending how you look at it.

 

[abaddon]

No, Russia cannot have Belgium because Belgian citizens are certainly not interested in becoming Russian (Belgium is not like Crimea).

Yeah, but if Russia invaded Belgium, it isn't like you would have a choice, is it?

Belgium has a history of just rolling over.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

It's called a traffic jam, or a huge target depending how you look at it.

Oh absolutely. If the Ukrainians can strike it at multiple points, particularly the front and rear, and prioritise the logistics vehicles that's a lot of things for the locals to steal when the Russians inevitably abandon them.

The only thing worrying about it is the sheer number of vehicles. Like, that's a hell of a lot of stinger missiles needed to wipe out the column.

 

[Michel H]

Yeah, but if Russia invaded Belgium, it isn't like you would have a choice, is it?

There is always a possibility of armed resistance after an invasion (which is probably smarter than a nuclear war).

Belgium has a history of just rolling over.

No, I don't think so (neither in 1914-18, nor in 1940).

 

[Mike!]

It's called a traffic jam, or a huge target depending how you look at it.

Another case where just a few minutes of NATO air power could turn the tables real quick. Come in fast and hard and be back out before they know it. When Russia points a finger claim ignorance. "WE don't know who did it, but we suspect it was Batman, maybe."

 

[theprestige]

I am seeing some questions about deployment of some of Russia's newer tanks and other ground equipment - they are just not being seen very often (Armata tanks and such).

I don't think Russia actually has any Armatas to speak of. My biggest question about their equipment has been whether they're using T-80s, or just T-90s. The T-80 is a more modern and advanced design than the T-72, but reportedly the Russians had difficulty manufacturing and maintaining them. The T-90 is a much-upgraded T-72, and may well represent the current peak of Russian armor in regular service.

Ukraine also has upgraded T-72s and T-80s. I dunno if their T-80s are in any better shape or greater numbers than the Russians', though.

 

[theprestige]

There's a 17 mile long column of Russian armour heading towards Kyiv.

Well damn. I mean that's a lot of vehicles.

That actually sounds pretty serious.

 

[theprestige]

All Michael H. needs is a derby hat and an umbrella to complete the Nevile Chamberlain imitation.

Chamberlain's position was far more ethical than Michel's. This isn't a Chamberlain thing we're seeing here. It's a Quisling thing.

 

[abaddon]

There is always a possibility of armed resistance after an invasion (which is probably smarter than a nuclear war).

No, I don't think so (neither in 1914-18, nor in 1940).

Yup, you folded in both of those.

 

[Manopolus]

I heard on the radio earlier today, they've done just that.

That I didn't know. I'd have thought that removing fossil fuels should have been their first priority, anyway, but not everyone agrees on the nuclear power question.

 

[sphenisc]

Another case where just a few minutes of NATO air power could turn the tables real quick. Come in fast and hard and be back out before they know it. When Russia points a finger claim ignorance. "WE don't know who did it, but we suspect it was Batman, maybe."

Surely there are Turkish Airforce Bases closer than that?

 

[Manopolus]

It seems to me there are some easy concessions Ukraine and its Western allies could easily make, and which would perhaps avoid further bloodshed and suffering:

(1) Accepting the independence of the two breakaway republics of Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk). Russia could station troops there if deemed necessary for protection, upon invitation from their respective goverments.

(2) Accepting that Crimea is part of Russia.

(3) Accepting that Ukraine will not be a NATO member for at least 10 years.

(4) Lifting all economic sanctions imposed on Russia (even those which existed before this recent attack by Russia) provided that all Russian troops have left Ukraine (where they shouldn't be). With the understanding that a lifting of sanctions would also be good for Western economies and ordinary citizens.

...and why in the heck would they do that? Russia's whole worry/argument about their security is nothing but a relic of the colonial era. Just because the class seating arrangement puts a pretty girl next to you does not mean that she has to be YOUR girlfriend instead of going with the guy on the other side of the classroom.

NATO did not "aggressively expand." They merely responded to already existing interest on the part of the newer membsrs. I can see no wrong in having done so. And I can see no right to demand otherwise on Russia's part.

If you want to have good relations with your neighbors, treating them well is vastly superior to demanding it as your right because of your own insecurity. Just being a good person (country) goes a long way, as a matter of fact.

Russia has no right to demand what they are demanding. PERIOD. Basic social skills should tell you this. It doesn't require knowing anything about foreign policy.

 

[Olmstead]

Another case where just a few minutes of NATO air power could turn the tables real quick. Come in fast and hard and be back out before they know it. When Russia points a finger claim ignorance. "WE don't know who did it, but we suspect it was Batman, maybe."

I am curious about the difference between providing military equipment to the Ukraine and "providing military equipment". It feels like there would be some loopholes when it comes to engaging Russian forces within the Ukraine by other countries.

Of course, Russia would ultimately get to decide whether to escalate based on such actions, so it isn't so much about the legal definition and more about diplomacy and negotiation, oddly enough.

 

[slyjoe]

Surely there are Turkish Airforce Bases closer than that?

Is Turkey in NATO?