The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[ponderingturtle]

I just said this in another thread but Putin did use WMD's..Nerve gas in Syria.

And the UK

 

[GrandMasterFox]

Are we talking about two different incidents here?
Or just fog of war?

Most of the sources I read this on are in Hebrew, this is the only one I found in English but it doesn't go into much detail.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israeli-man-killed-in-ukraine-identified-as-roman-brodsky/

Ones with greater details (but again, in hebrew)
https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/skl8cdql9

They mention greater details on the incident and have eye account witness of the victim's friends who were with him at the time.
They also mention that later on they were arrested by police, so the odds of them being russians in Ukraine uniforms or something doesn't seem plausible.

Honestly, if this this is propaganda it's a terrible one. They mention that his family blames only Putin and that even his friends said the area is just chaotic, not that they fully blame Ukraine for it.

 

[wobs]

A surprisingly detailed look at the state of Russian military late last year:
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Captain Swoop has previously alluded to their lack of logistics capabilities, and this is confirmed here. Being overly dependent on trains for moving heavy gear around (and based on Russian wide gauge). Struggles to move far from rail networks, and the article advises much of what the Ukranes have been doing: Cut off the logistics when they are stretched.

An interesting read given the detail and when it was written.

 

[theprestige]

Understood, but how does response and counter-response and that type of escalation not get out of hand? Will the West let Russia set off a low-yield nuke with no low yield nuclear response in return? That was the self-restraint I mentioned.

To what end would Putin escalate? Escalation won't replace his destroyed armored division or reestablish the momentum of his invasion. There's no law, written or unwritten, that says he has to just keep escalating and making the situation worse and worse for himself with no plausible benefit.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

I wonder how much pain the West is willing to take over Ukraine?

If this becomes a long conflict lasting many months, will we start to care less about Ukraine than being able to, for example, heat our homes and fuel our vehicles?

 

[jimbob]

A surprisingly detailed look at the state of Russian military late last year:
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Captain Swoop has previously alluded to their lack of logistics capabilities, and this is confirmed here. Being overly dependent on trains for moving heavy gear around (and based on Russian wide gauge). Struggles to move far from rail networks, and the article advises much of what the Ukranes have been doing: Cut off the logistics when they are stretched.

An interesting read given the detail and when it was written.

This reads so much like the WWII in the Eastern Front part of the threads in History and Arts ...

 

[theprestige]

I wonder how much pain the West is willing to take over Ukraine?

If this becomes a long conflict lasting many months, will we start to care less about Ukraine than being able to, for example, heat our homes and fuel our vehicles?

Who's "we"? The US could support Ukraine indefinitely, without it affecting its fuel situation at home one iota.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

To what end would Putin escalate? Escalation won't replace his destroyed armored division or reestablish the momentum of his invasion. There's no law, written or unwritten, that says he has to just keep escalating and making the situation worse and worse for himself with no plausible benefit.

Because if he doesn't he'll be ousted and probably executed by his own people. In that case, why not take the world with you?

 

[Jimbo07]

To what end would Putin escalate?

At what point does he come on TV and just say, "If I can't have it, no one can?"

*BEEP*

ETA: ninja'd

To summarize... since we don't know his thinking, is there a point at which the end of the world becomes personal for Putin?

 

[lobosrul5]

Who's "we"? The US could support Ukraine indefinitely, without it affecting its fuel situation at home one iota.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...or-supplier-of-oil-to-the-us/?sh=6468ac2f18c3

ETA: we can make due without their oil, but it will affect us by a lot more than one iota.

 

[theprestige]

Without hijacking the thread too much.

I hate it when countries like Japan and Canada, most of Europe, probably a few others, are called non-nuclear powers.

I mean they are, but only the sense that a man with a gun in one hand and a clip of bullets in the other doesn't have a loaded gun.

If you have a domestic nuclear power program and any type of weapons system more advanced then horseback cavalry you're a nuclear power.

I think it depends how quickly they can manufacture a nuke. Fuel grade material isn't weapon grade material. I'd say that to be a nuclear power, you'd need to be ready with warhead designs, ready with some subsystems or components already manufactured, ready to process fuel into weapons, and ready with the industrial plant to finish manufacturing and assembly on a turnkey basis.

"We don't have any bombs right now, but we can easily build one in less than a month, and six a month thereafter" - you're a nuclear power.

"We could, in theory, build out a nuclear weapons manufacturing plant, start processing fuel into weapons-grade material, and get to the point of building a weapon within a year" - you're not a nuclear power. But you could in theory become one if you wanted to.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Who's "we"? The US could support Ukraine indefinitely, without it affecting its fuel situation at home one iota.

That was just an example with a European bias. I'm sure there are plenty of aspects of American life that would be negatively affected by a prolonged conflict with sustained economic sanctions.

 

[jimbob]

Because if he doesn't he'll be ousted and probably executed by his own people. In that case, why not take the world with you?

At what point does he come on TV and just say, "If I can't have it, no one can?"

*BEEP*

Exactly

And there are rumours of Putin's ill health that have been ongoing for a couple of years. I haven't seen any footage of him "being manly and striding around" recently - just sitting at very long tables, or standing.

If he's not got long - and a sick strongman is soon to be a weakman (which is a very temporary situation) he might be more keen to gamble and go down as the next Peter the Great.

 

[Olmstead]

That was just an example with a European bias. I'm sure there are plenty of aspects of American life that would be negatively affected by a prolonged conflict with sustained economic sanctions.

It's a great opportunity to find alternatives to a dependence on Russia.

 

[theprestige]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...or-supplier-of-oil-to-the-us/?sh=6468ac2f18c3

ETA: we can make due without their oil, but it will affect us by a lot more than one iota.

We have plenty of oil reserves we're not even exploiting at the moment. But okay, "one iota" is an exaggeration. Good call-out. I should say I think the US has enough of an economic buffer that it could support Ukraine indefinitely without it leading to a morale crisis over home heating stateside.

 

[Oystein]

...I think the US has enough of an economic buffer that it could support Ukraine indefinitely without it leading to a morale crisis over home heating stateside.

If, however, Putin shuts off those trans-polar-sea natural gas pipelines... *duck*

 

[lobosrul5]

If, however, Putin shuts off those trans-polar-sea natural gas pipelines... *duck*

I.... almost googled if that was a thing lol. Even though I know for a fact we're sitting on so much natural gas we don't barely even know what to do with it... freeze it and sent it to Germany perhaps?

 

[ponderingturtle]

I.... almost googled if that was a thing lol. Even though I know for a fact we're sitting on so much natural gas we don't barely even know what to do with it... freeze it and sent it to Germany perhaps?

Are there even enough tankers for LNG shipping on that scale?

 

[theprestige]

Because if he doesn't he'll be ousted and probably executed by his own people. In that case, why not take the world with you?

Why would his own people go ahead and launch nukes on his say-so, if they're in a position where they want to oust and execute him? Even POTUS is liable to get a punch in the nose from the Marine holding the Football, if he suddenly decides to grab it and start pushing buttons in a fit of pique.

 

[theprestige]

That was just an example with a European bias. I'm sure there are plenty of aspects of American life that would be negatively affected by a prolonged conflict with sustained economic sanctions.

Not to the degree of causing a morale crisis at home. It's not like the US economy is heavily dependent on trade with Russia. Sustained economic sanctions might annoy a few one-percenters, but again, that's not going to be a morale crisis.