The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[GrandMasterFox]

Well if that's true, well done Russia! You've just essentially declared war on a nuclear power.

The very best people troops.

Don't bet on it.

Several right wing extreme broadcasters have (before this news broke) said that Israel's reaction were too harsh towards Russia.

This is not out of love for Putin but out of fear of Iran and Syria. Putin has the latter as a puppet and allowed Israel to attack strategic goals when needed so they fear of angering him.

Meanwhile, the current regime in Israel is quite fragile and is built on coalition from both extreme left and extreme right and the only common denominator is their fear of the opposition parties taking control again (which most polls predict)

The right doesn't want to escalate things with Putin and the left doesn't want to escalate issues with Syria which going against Putin will cause.

So I highly doubt this will be your Pearl Harbor in the sense that a single attack will force the country to go to war. They will likely still only do economical sanctions and hope the rest of the world avenge things for them.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Don't bet on it.

Several right wing extreme broadcasters have (before this news broke) said that Israel's reaction were too harsh towards Russia.

This is not out of love for Putin but out of fear of Iran and Syria. Putin has the latter as a puppet and allowed Israel to attack strategic goals when needed so they fear of angering him.

Meanwhile, the current regime in Israel is quite fragile and is built on coalition from both extreme left and extreme right and the only common denominator is their fear of the opposition parties taking control again (which most polls predict)

The right doesn't want to escalate things with Putin and the left doesn't want to escalate issues with Syria which going against Putin will cause.

So I highly doubt this will be your Pearl Harbor in the sense that a single attack will force the country to go to war. They will likely still only do economical sanctions and hope the rest of the world avenge things for them.

Plus Russia is too far away for Israel to bomb it's schools and hospitals.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I was talking more the broader concept of MAD itself.

I see. Also nuclear technology is increasingly less rare. Every tin-pot dictator wants to get a bomb. They rightly assess that a nuke is often the difference between going the distance or getting "regime changed" by a more powerful nation.

The more nations that have these things, the more likely that there's a lapse in the MAD logic that keeps the world from blowing itself up.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Nigel Farage tweeted

@Nigel_Farage
Why isn't Biden in Europe taking the lead?

 

[GrandMasterFox]

Plus Russia is too far away for Israel to bomb it's schools and hospitals.

Are you for real?

 

[Andy_Ross]

I don't think he can hit the high notes in The Final Countdown.

 

[angrysoba]

I don't think he can hit the high notes in The Final Countdown.

He means lead guitar.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Not really, foreign civilians travelling in a warzone? things like that are bound to happen.
What can Israel do about it?

It's Israel, they have a tendency to flip out over things like that.

Also as for what they can do? Well, start funnelling things to Ukraine for one.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I see. Also nuclear technology is increasingly less rare. Every tin-pot dictator wants to get a bomb. They rightly assess that a nuke is often the difference between going the distance or getting "regime changed" by a more powerful nation.

The more nations that have these things, the more likely that there's a lapse in the MAD logic that keeps the world from blowing itself up.

Without hijacking the thread too much.

I hate it when countries like Japan and Canada, most of Europe, probably a few others, are called non-nuclear powers.

I mean they are, but only the sense that a man with a gun in one hand and a clip of bullets in the other doesn't have a loaded gun.

If you have a domestic nuclear power program and any type of weapons system more advanced then horseback cavalry you're a nuclear power.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Both Ukraine and Russia are important exporters of food. The conflict may result in a shortage.

Ukraine and Russia are important food suppliers for low- and middle-income countries in which tens of millions of people are already food insecure. Prices are further rising due to the conflict, and more increases as the war continues could cause greater food instability and hunger — not only in Ukraine, but around the world.

Egypt and Turkey rely on combined Russian/Ukrainian imports for 70 percent of their wheat supply, while 95 percent of Ukraine’s wheat exports went to Asia (including the Middle East) or Africa in 2020. In the Middle East and North Africa region, Yemen, Libya, and Lebanon rely on Ukraine for a high percentage of their wheat supply, while Egypt imports more than half its wheat from either Russia or Ukraine. Countries in South and Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia and Bangladesh, are also heavily reliant on wheat from the region. The largest importers of Ukrainian wheat in 2020 were Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Pakistan, while Russia is the source of a large percentage of wheat for many sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria and Sudan.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/2/27/22950805/russia-ukraine-food-prices-hunger-invasion-war

 

[Oystein]

When you have someone like Putin, who might rightly understand that they either continue to wield total authority over Russia or end up getting suicided a few times in the back of the head, playing high stakes with the entire country might not be much of a deterrent. He's already playing a deadly dangerous game, what difference does it make?

That is to say, Putin and Russia's interests may often be out of alignment. When you're a strongman dictator, foreign and domestic policy goal #1 is staying in power. All other concerns are secondary.

Well yeah but it's the Mexican standoff problem. Realizing the situation is untenable only makes a difference if you realize before you are in it. Realizing "Okay this isn't gonna work" once you are it is a philosophical question with little practical value.

You can't be the first one to put your gun down after the Mexican standoff starts.

One solution to the Mexican stand-off is interference from the outside: If one gun-slinger gets shot in the back, or gets his gun shot out of his hand, by one of his lackeys.

Indeed this war is going massively against the interests of many aspects of what "Russia" is: Against its own population, economy, strategic position, its elites, etc.

It is being said that "we" must be careful to allow Putin at least one plausible way out, or else there is nothing to negotiate and violence will escalate until (at least) one side is kaputt. But I can't see any such way out. Putin cannot go back substantially, and we can't let him get away with his territorial gains in Ukraine unless he pays a fair price. Which of course he won't.

And so, the best thing we can hope for is that people with interests in Moscow get to Putin and dispose of him.
Almost anyone other than Putin or Lavrov could negotiate with a straight face and find a way out, saying "Putin made us do it, but look all the dirt we found on him, he played us. 'xcuse us.".

 

[Andy_Ross]

Hungary says it will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory.

Remember back in 2019 when Hungary allowed the transit of Russian military aircraft carrying vehicles and troops through its airspace to Serbia in spite of EU sanctions?

Maybe we should trade Hungary to Russia for Ukraine.

 

[lobosrul5]

The Tet Offensive.

Tactically and operationally a huge loss for the NVA... strategically it caused a massive loss of opinion on the war with the American public and was very much the beginning of the end of our involvement in Vietnam.

 

[Darat]

At a guess, Vlad told Lukashenko not to join in because the Ukrainians would surrender in droves, and now that not only isn't happening but that the Russians are getting a spanking, he's asked for some "help" from his puppet.

The Belarussian military is even more pathetic than the Russian one though, so I suspect this is just going to give the Ukrainian civilians even more APCs that they can nick.

Remember it's not long ago that Lukashenko asked for Russian forces to enforce his “win” at the polls. One side effect of this war could be that Lukashenko is ousted, he’ll have to play it very carefully.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Hungary says it will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory.

Remember back in 2019 when Hungary allowed the transit of Russian military aircraft carrying vehicles and troops through its airspace to Serbia in spite of EU sanctions?

Maybe we should trade Hungary to Russia for Ukraine.

Yeah someone just open up the EU org chart and do a find/replace Hungary for Ukraine and call it a day.

 

[angrysoba]

Hungary says it will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory.

Remember back in 2019 when Hungary allowed the transit of Russian military aircraft carrying vehicles and troops through its airspace to Serbia in spite of EU sanctions?

Maybe we should trade Hungary to Russia for Ukraine.

Yep. Orban’s still a Putin fan despite making a show of being in favour of kicking Russia out of Swift (probably calculating it wouldn’t happen).

 

[theprestige]

Tactically and operationally a huge loss for the NVA... strategically it caused a massive loss of opinion on the war with the American public and was very much the beginning of the end of our involvement in Vietnam.

Yep. The point is not that it was expensive, but that it succeeded at the thing Joe was asking about.

 

[timhau]

Nigel Farage tweeted

@Nigel_Farage
Why isn't Biden in Europe taking the lead?

Why is Nigel Farage such a twat?

 

[theprestige]

Hungary says it will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory.

Remember back in 2019 when Hungary allowed the transit of Russian military aircraft carrying vehicles and troops through its airspace to Serbia in spite of EU sanctions?

Maybe we should trade Hungary to Russia for Ukraine.

I wanna know what's so high on Hungary's wish list that they're coming down on the Russian side, and is there any way we could win them over by addressing whatever their actual concern is.

 

[lobosrul5]

Not really, foreign civilians travelling in a warzone? things like that are bound to happen.
What can Israel do about it?

Well Israel isn't in NATO, so their involvement doesn't start WW3. Turkey appears to be supporting Ukraine... crazy ass thought, could Turkey allow Israeli planes to overfly their air space just this once? Not likely.