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The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

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The Swedish alcohol monopoly (the only legal store that sells strong alcoholic beverages for consumption elsewhere) will stop the sale of Russian alcohol.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
It really makes me pessimistic about how safe mutually assured destruction really is. At the end of the day, these nuclear armed countries aren't perfectly rational, carefully calculating actors. They can make huge mistakes and act on non-rational instincts, as shown by this full scale invasion by Putin. All it takes is for someone to back themselves into a corner and decide nuking is the only way out.
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I mentioned this movie a lot but there's a scene in the Cold War docu-drama 13 Days about the Cuban Missile Crisis.

President Kennedy: Dean, how does this all play out?
Dean Acheson: Your first step Sir, will be to demand that the Soviets withdraw the missiles within 12 to 24 hours. They will refuse. When they do you will order the strikes, followed by the invasion [of Cuba]. They will resist and be overrun. They will retaliate against another target somewhere else in the world, most likely Berlin. We will honor our treaty commitments and resist them there, defeating them per our plans.
President Kennedy: Those plans call for the use of nuclear weapons.
Dean Acheson: *Says nothing.*
President Kennedy: What's the next step?
Dean Acheson: Hopefully cooler heads will prevail before the next step.

*Later in private, President Kennedy talks to his brother Bobby and Special Assistant to the President Ken O'Donnell*

Ken O'Donnell: Yah know call me Irish but I don't believe in cooler heads prevailing.
 
I am betting a lot of US Special Forces ..the Green Berets are taking crash courses in Ukrainian....
 
Silly Green Monkey said:
It is indeed a desperate, even pathetic, hope that Russia would stand alone in its madness.
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I mean Belarus is basically Russia anyway so it effectively is. Even if Belarus wasn't obviously a puppet state it's economy and military are even more pathetic than the Russian one so they won't be able to help much.
 
JoeMorgue said:
I mentioned this movie a lot but there's a scene in the Cold War docu-drama 13 Days about the Cuban Missile Crisis.

President Kennedy: Dean, how does this all play out?
Dean Acheson: Your first step Sir, will be to demand that the Soviets withdraw the missiles within 12 to 24 hours. They will refuse. When they do you will order the strikes, followed by the invasion [of Cuba]. They will resist and be overrun. They will retaliate against another target somewhere else in the world, most likely Berlin. We will honor our treaty commitments and resist them there, defeating them per our plans.
President Kennedy: Those plans call for the use of nuclear weapons.
Dean Acheson: *Says nothing.*
President Kennedy: What's the next step?
Dean Acheson: Hopefully cooler heads will prevail before the next step.

*Later in private, President Kennedy talks to his brother Bobby and Special Assistant to the President Ken O'Donnell*

Ken O'Donnell: Yah know call me Irish but I don't believe in cooler heads prevailing.
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It's a minor miracle that incident or any of the others during the Cold War didn't result in nuclear exchange. Not looking forward to having to rely on that luck again.
 
MarkCorrigan said:
Well if that's true, well done Russia! You've just essentially declared war on a nuclear power.

The very best people troops.
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If this is True, some Russian troops in Syria might well be getting a little visit from Isralei Special Operations units....
 
MAD indeed. It absolutely relies on the Russians believing that the West will be crazy and suicidal enough to retaliate with nuclear weapons and vice versa... Not very flattering about the humanity but it has at least worked - so far.
 
llwyd said:
MAD indeed. It absolutely relies on the Russians believing that the West will be crazy and suicidal enough to retaliate with nuclear weapons and vice versa... Not very flattering about the humanity but it has at least worked - so far.
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It stops working the moment either side says, by word or deed, admission or omission, "I might be crazy, but I'm not that crazy."
 
theprestige said:
It stops working the moment either side says, by word or deed, admission or omission, "I might be crazy, but I'm not that crazy."
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When you have someone like Putin, who might rightly understand that they either continue to wield total authority over Russia or end up getting suicided a few times in the back of the head, playing high stakes with the entire country might not be much of a deterrent. He's already playing a deadly dangerous game, what difference does it make?

That is to say, Putin and Russia's interests may often be out of alignment. When you're a strongman dictator, foreign and domestic policy goal #1 is staying in power. All other concerns are secondary.
 
Well yeah but it's the Mexican standoff problem. Realizing the situation is untenable only makes a difference if you realize before you are in it. Realizing "Okay this isn't gonna work" once you are it is a philosophical question with little practical value.

You can't be the first one to put your gun down after the Mexican standoff starts.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Well yeah but it's the Mexican standoff problem. Realizing the situation is untenable only makes a difference if you realize before you are in it. Realizing "Okay this isn't gonna work" once you are it is a philosophical question with little practical value.

You can't be the first one to put your gun down after the Mexican standoff starts.
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I would argue we're not "in it" yet. At least, not fully committed. As of yet the US or other NATO countries are not in direct conflict with Russia.

The longer Russia flounders and fails to extract capitulation from Ukraine, the more chaotic this gets. I'm assuming Putin believed that the invasion would have gone more swiftly than it currently is.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Yeah but then why did Russia wait to ask them to join?

If Belarus had been part of the initial invasion force the planned "Get it over with quick" thing would have been more likely, Russia could have pretended they had "international support" and if any thing "ungentlemanly" happens they could have just blame the Belarus soldiers.
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It could be because they are a bigger wreck than the Russian forces.
 
theprestige said:
Maybe Putin was worried Belarus would go off message and start committing obvious atrocities out in the open for the world to see. Or maybe he suspected Belarussian performance would be so comically inept and ineffective that it would be a net propaganda and morale loss. Now that the Russian troops are delivering that loss anyway, maybe having more boots on the ground doesn't seem like such a bad idea even if they are no-talent assclowns.
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Maybe they were reluctant and needed a bit more slapping to get them moving.
 
dudalb said:
I am betting a lot of US Special Forces ..the Green Berets are taking crash courses in Ukrainian....
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They have been there training and advising but were all withdrawn, I can't see why anyone would think it a good idea for the US to send the army in to Ukraine and give Putin the excuse to go after NATO.
 
Well, let’s face it, Belarus joining Russia in the war might be something aimed more at the domestic audiences.

There have been anti-war protests in Minsk, as well as in Russia. If Belarus can play the victim card then they may be able to garner sympathy from domestic audience and then Russia is heroically defending them. Russia obviously cannot play the victim because its government’s existence is predicated on infinite strength.
 
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