The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[JoeMorgue]

You know looking at the situation a lot of Russia' status as still a sort half-way there superpower might be in risk.

The NATO, the US, China, and the EU and it's member countries are certainly not failing to notice how much trouble Russia is having with the Ukraine.

Putin might have made it harder for him to bluff on the image of the old Soviet Union being something to be scared of in the future.

 

[timhau]

Belarus military convoy filmed near Kobryn 30 km from the border with Ukraine. Of note is that each vehicle is marked with a painted red square, likely for the same friend-or-foe identification as the white Z painted on Russian military vehicles sent into Ukraine. It would seem perhaps that the Belarussian military is about to join the fray.

Of perhaps some comfort, most of the hardware in that convoy seems pretty obsolete.

Of course I'd rather they didn't participate, but I'm not that worried about Belarus joining the fight. They're like a crappy version of Russia, which is pretty damn crappy. But of course, numbers matter too.

 

[Ziggurat]

You know looking at the situation a lot of Russia' status as still a sort half-way there superpower might be in risk.

The NATO, the US, China, and the EU and it's member countries are certainly not failing to notice how much trouble Russia is having with the Ukraine.

Putin might have made it harder for him to bluff on the image of the old Soviet Union being something to be scared of in the future.

They still have a lot of nuclear weapons. That will always count for quite a bit.

 

[Ziggurat]

Of course I'd rather they didn't participate, but I'm not that worried about Belarus joining the fight. They're like a crappy version of Russia, which is pretty damn crappy. But of course, numbers matter too.

Can we get a Russia?
We have a Russia at home.
Russia at home: Belarus

 

[JoeMorgue]

I mean surely every country in Western Europe has gone a little on alert right about now. Not sure how much I want to read into any of that.

If your neighbors are fighting you lock your doors a little tighter at night. That's not necessarily sinister.

 

[timhau]

You know looking at the situation a lot of Russia' status as still a sort half-way there superpower might be in risk.

The NATO, the US, China, and the EU and it's member countries are certainly not failing to notice how much trouble Russia is having with the Ukraine.

Putin might have made it harder for him to bluff on the image of the old Soviet Union being something to be scared of in the future.

While that really warms my heart in many ways, it's also a bit scary... if Putinistan's conventional forces don't scare anyone, he's still got an arsenal of something else that does.

 

[Mike!]

They still have a lot of nuclear weapons. That will always count for quite a bit.

Unfortunately, my thoughts as well.

Meanwhile, just a bit of overtly wishful thinking here... You know, I'd bet less than 5 minutes of properly applied late night NATO air power could turn the tables on this situation PDQ. Ain't going happen, I'm sure, but just the thought of it made me smile briefly.

 

[Ziggurat]

Is the enemy better equipped? A lot of the equipment is also useless if it lacks fuel or ammo.

Can't vouch for the authenticity of this, but I certainly want it to be real.

https://www.weaselzippers.us/479677...broken-down-russian-tank-that-ran-out-of-gas/

 

[Beelzebuddy]

"Why Russia will lose this war"

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

It's a very long read but well worth it.

I was just about to post this myself.

tw;dr - They brought the blitz but not the krieg. Russia approached Ukraine like it was a modern day "special operation" where they go in and stomp around rooting out "terrorists" without ever seeing much fight back, until they get enough concessions from the host government to leave. They did not have the planning or preparation for old school twentieth century warfare, and with a career lickspittle in charge of the military who has been focused more on keeping up Soviet appearances than maximizing effectiveness, they likely lack the capability as well.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I'm not downplaying the nuclear weapons angle, but I do wonder how much of that has gotten to the point of being unreliable as well.

I mean sure I don't want to roll the dice and task a risk that the Russian nuclear arsenal has been barely kept up since the fall of the USSR and is in no better condition then its tanks, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if that was in fact the case.

Long story short the USSR has been gone for a lifetime at this point and a lot of Russia swagger seems to boil down to "Remember the USSR? Well as far as you know we're still like... 80, maybe 90% as powerful still and we aren't going to tell you otherwise" and I wonder if Russia deciding to go into a fairly big conflict while the whole world watches is going to hurt that projection of image.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I was just about to post this myself.

tw;dr - They brought the blitz but not the krieg. Russia approached Ukraine like it was a modern day "special operation" where they go in and stomp around rooting out "terrorists" without ever seeing much fight back, until they get enough concessions from the host government to leave. They did not have the planning or preparation for old school twentieth century warfare, and with a career lickspittle in charge of the military who has been focused more on keeping up Soviet appearances than maximizing effectiveness, they likely lack the capability as well.

It's amazing how many major military operations fail because one side is shocked, simply shocked I say, that the other side had the other side decided to fight back.

Seriously has the whole "Hit them hard and fast, break their spirit, then they'll just give up and not fight back" ever really worked? And as said Russia only got the "hit them hard and fast" part about halfway right anyway.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Seriously has the whole "Hit them hard and fast, break their spirit, then they'll just give up and fight back" ever really worked?

The German invasion of France in WWII?

 

[Mike!]

I'm not downplaying the nuclear weapons angle, but I do wonder how much of that has gotten to the point of being unreliable as well.

I mean sure I don't want to roll the dice and task a risk that the Russian nuclear arsenal has been barely kept up since the fall of the USSR and is in no better condition then its tanks, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if that was in fact the case.

Long story short the USSR has been gone for a lifetime at this point and a lot of Russia swagger seems to boil down to "Remember the USSR? Well as far as you know we're still like... 80, maybe 90% as powerful still and we aren't going to tell you otherwise" and I wonder if Russia deciding to go into a fairly big conflict while the whole world watches is going to hurt that projection of image.

The idea of that has crossed my mind several times this weekend too. That's very much the question here, have the nukes, and their delivery systems been kept up any better than everything else we've seen on display so far? Even if they haven't, if just one still works when attempted, it's a very, very bad thing.

 

[dasmiller]

BBC Rolling

Ukrainian authorities have announced that their delegation has arrived at the Ukraine-Belarus border to start peace talks with the Russian delegation.

The main issue on their agenda, they say, is a ceasefire and withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian territory.

Am I the only one hoping that Ukraine demands the Russians withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea?

 

[TurkeysGhost]

The fog of war is a bit too thick to see through, but I just can't believe a 25 to 1 kill ratio against an enemy that is still holding on to the areas surrounding the major cities. It's too good to be true.

I also heat about fierce fighting, and a couple of hundred dead. Something doesn't add up.

Oh for sure. I really doubt any side's public reporting of their own combat losses, or reports of enemy casualties, are going to be reliable.

I doubt that either side has a super precise accounting of either in the moment, and they have good reason to conceal these figures so long as there is active fighting anyway.

As an aside, it seems that the original reporting about the Ukrainian border guards on Snake Island were not all KIA'd, but rather taken as POWs by the Russians. Once communications was lost with these forces, it was assumed they were all killed. Similar such incidents are surely happening regularly.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/26/ukraine-russia-snake-island/

 

[Beelzebuddy]

It's amazing how many major military operations fail because one side is shocked, simply shocked I say, that the other side had the other side decided to fight back.

Seriously has the whole "Hit them hard and fast, break their spirit, then they'll just give up and fight back" ever really worked? And as said Russia only got the "hit them hard and fast" part about halfway right anyway.

Yes, it's worked. That's how war's been done for the past forty years. A developed nation goes into a developing one, kicks over their sand castles, ****s some **** up, gets contracts for oil and mineral rights, and eventually goes back home. The government there doesn't fight back, not really, because it has no chance whatsoever. They surrender immediately, the soldiers slink away, a puppet regime gets put in place, insurrection builds and gradually the same bunch comes back.

I doubt that either side has a super precise accounting of either in the moment, and they have good reason to conceal these figures so long as there is active fighting anyway.

I'm using this site as a metric, which only counts military equipment losses that it can get visual documentation of.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Right now Ukraine's pushing a 2.0 k/d ratio.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Am I the only one hoping that Ukraine demands the Russians withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea?

If I was the Ukraine I would definitely demand that.

 

[Ryokan]

Am I the only one hoping that Ukraine demands the Russians withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea?

Reportedly, that's exactly what Ukraine is demanding. Russia out of all of Ukraine, including Crimea and Donbas.

 

[theprestige]

It'd be difficult to concede Crimea in exchange for agreement on other points, if they don't demand it in the first place.

 

[Ryokan]

It's amazing how many major military operations fail because one side is shocked, simply shocked I say, that the other side had the other side decided to fight back.

Seriously has the whole "Hit them hard and fast, break their spirit, then they'll just give up and not fight back" ever really worked? And as said Russia only got the "hit them hard and fast" part about halfway right anyway.

Serbia.