The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[rdwight]

I understand that the full weight of the Russian army isn't currently being utilized, but.. if they are faltering in a war with Ukraine, is the renewed military buildup of EU NATO countries really necessary? Hundreds of billions of dollars in military budget increases, yearly, will be the norm across NATO for the near future. I don't see the need and don't think it will have a positive impact for the world.

 

[Galaxie]

A good question asked here:
https://twitter.com/henrikrpaulsson/status/1498050479359594502?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1498050479359594502%7Ctwgr%5Ehb_2_8%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthreadreaderapp.com%2Fthread%2F1498064340670455810.html

How are the Ukrainians operating and maintaining their air assets? Are they operating from road bases? Obviously they won't reveal this until well after the war.

 

[trustbutverify]

I understand that the full weight of the Russian army isn't currently being utilized, but.. if they are faltering in a war with Ukraine, is the renewed military buildup of EU NATO countries really necessary? Hundreds of billions of dollars in military budget increases, yearly, will be the norm across NATO for the near future. I don't see the need and don't think it will have a positive impact for the world.

Have to disagree with you there.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

I understand that the full weight of the Russian army isn't currently being utilized, but.. if they are faltering in a war with Ukraine, is the renewed military buildup of EU NATO countries really necessary? Hundreds of billions of dollars in military budget increases, yearly, will be the norm across NATO for the near future. I don't see the need and don't think it will have a positive impact for the world.

Common opinion is they're faltering because of their coordination and execution, not capabilities. Invading a NATO nation would not be done with the cavalier half-assedness we're seeing in Ukraine. Also, the next pointless invasion's todo list is going to have "reassert dominance" after this one.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498124485173600263?cxt=HHwWjoCzgYWStMopAAAA

 

[Meadmaker]

I have to wonder about food, groceries, gasoline. I haven't seen anything about shortages.

Here in the US store shelves were going bare a couple of years ago when people were staying home from work. I have to wonder how the food distribution system continues working when Russian tanks are blocking the highway and a significant chunk of your work force is heading either to the front lines or to Poland.

 

[BillC]

This interactive map purports to show the extent of the Russian advance into Ukraine. I don't know about its accuracy, currency, or sources of information. The clickable icons do bring up a news report about e.g. shelling in a particular town.


EDIT: that's now giving a bad gateway for me. Try this instead, and close the news window that's open.

 

[Jimbo07]

Common opinion is they're faltering because of their coordination and execution, not capabilities. Invading a NATO nation would not be done with the cavalier half-assedness we're seeing in Ukraine.

That's my take. Morale would be higher fighting NATO. However, their readiness and logistics so far have been poor. Don't count the Russian forces out, yet, but regardless of the result, it's going to be hard to rearm. They'll need time and money, which might be tough, given sanctions.

You also don't want anyone thinking NATO conventioinal forces could ROFLSTOMP Russia's... Overconfidence on one side is a killer, and on the other, it might give people itchy nuclear trigger fingers.

 

[dudalb]

Russian hackers are at least loyal to their country?

Probably loyal to Putin as long as the Rubles keep flowing.

 

[dudalb]

Footage of Russians standing in long lines at ATM to withdraw their money.
Rouble is down 30% even before the markest opening.
And the actual impact of the sanctions ha syet to hit.

 

[Ryokan]

I don't know what makes you think that the majority of citizens in the Donetsk and Lugansk republics don't identify as Russian and want to remain as part of Ukraine.

Russian is the most common first language in the Donbas and Crimea regions of Ukraine

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_language_in_Ukraine)

Well, since you use Wikipedia as your source:

According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 58% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 56.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively.[58] Modern Donbas is a predominately Russophone region. According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast.[59] The proportion of native Russian-speakers is higher than ethnic Russians because some ethnic Ukrainians and other nationalities also indicate Russian as their mother tongue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas#Demographics_and_politics

So you see, what language people speak neccesarily isn't an indicator of what ethnicity they are.

What ethnicity they consider themselves to be should be a bigger indicator, wouldn't you say?

I'm sure there are many people in Belgium who has a different first language than what ethnicity they consider themselves to be.

Plenty of Sami people in Norway don't speak Sami. That doesn't make them any less Sami. It certainly doesn't make then ethnic Norwegians.

 

[BillC]

Footage of Russians standing in long lines at ATM to withdraw their money.
Rouble is down 30% even before the markest opening.
And the actual impact of the sanctions ha syet to hit.

Today's opening of the Moscow Exchange has been delayed to 3pm, Financial Times and others are reporting.

 

[timhau]

Today's opening of the Moscow Exchange has been delayed to 3pm, Financial Times and others are reporting.

Avoid market crash by not opening the market? Yeah, that should work well.

 

[dudalb]

Intelligence reports that Belorussian troops might join the invasion.
Looks as though Lukashenko is going all the way with his playing Mussolini to Putin's Hitler.
Guaranteed, Belarus, if they do invade, will get hit will every sanction the Russia is getting.

 

[Galaxie]

Footage of Russians standing in long lines at ATM to withdraw their money.
Rouble is down 30% even before the markest opening.
And the actual impact of the sanctions ha syet to hit.

Today's opening of the Moscow Exchange has been delayed to 3pm, Financial Times and others are reporting.

I'm also seeing reports the drop is more like 40% and that the Russian banks are banning foreign clients from selling their securities

 

[dudalb]

Avoid market crash by not opening the market? Yeah, that should work well.

Ruble it down 30% even before the Market opens.....

In minor but amusing news, the movie box office sites are considerably lowering the opening for "THe Batman" in Russia this week. No ****, Sherlock.

Edited by zooterkin: 

Edited for rule 10. Type the word in full, and let the autocensor do the work. Do not partially mask swear words.

 

[Galaxie]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/1a873140-9811-11ec-89bb-9b014055375d?shareToken=7e580fb80b2f2fa072834a5c6b22fe83

More than 400 Russian mercenaries are operating in Kyiv with orders from the Kremlin to assassinate President Zelensky and his government and prepare the ground for Moscow to take control, The Times has learnt.
...
The mercenaries have been told that Putin wants a brief pause to show that he is negotiating with Zelensky, but assured them that no deal would be reached and that the effort would be simply “smoke and mirrors”, according to a source close to senior members of the Wagner Group.

 

[dudalb]

More reports that Belerus will joint the invasion/
Lukashenko, dictator of Belerus is a real piece of work. He wrecked the Belerus economy with his insistenc on Soviet style economic policies..which even Putin was smart enough not to do.
When he lost a 2020 election, he overturned the results and got Russian "peacekeepers" to help enforce his coup. He owes everything to Putin, and is pretty much doing the Mussolini subseviant to Hitler routine.
In other words, a POS the world would be better off without.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

The China Angle

I believe that at this point, the massive response by European countries in support of Ukraine against the invasion is also meant as a signal to China, should it consider attacking Taiwan.
Germany might not be hurt by Ukraine being grabbed by the Motherland, but it's industry would be kneecapped if it lost Taiwan.
China is probably recalculating its unification timetable.

 

[BillC]

Sirens sounding in Kyiv.

 

[EvilBiker]

This interactive map purports to show the extent of the Russian advance into Ukraine. I don't know about its accuracy, currency, or sources of information. The clickable icons do bring up a news report about e.g. shelling in a particular town.


EDIT: that's now giving a bad gateway for me. Try this instead, and close the news window that's open.

Here's the interactive map I'm using - not as specific icon-wise.