The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[theprestige]

China knows that, generally, doing trade is more profitable than doing war.

Controlling access to trade goods is an important part of doing trade. Using military force to lock a competitor out of a lucrative trading market is an important part of doing trade.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russia has begun arresting anti-war protesters as demonstrations break out after Putin invades Ukraine

The Russian government on Thursday threatened anti-war protesters demonstrating against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, warning they could face arrest for organizing.

And according to a protest monitoring group, the detentions have already begun as small protests have broken out in some Russian cities.

Russia's Investigative Committee warned citizens in a statement not to take part in the "unauthorized" protests "associated with the tense foreign political situation."

The committee said that people should be aware of the "negative legal consequences of these actions," which it said includes criminal liability.

 

[Galaxie]

Sounds like the battles for Antonov airfield and Hostomel airport are still ongoing. The longer Ukraine can prevent transport planes from landing Russian troops, the better, but they'll likely fall eventually.

 

[llwyd]

My half-baked prediction is that if global warming eases access to mineral resources in the frozen north, China will suddenly find reasons why chunks of Siberia belong to them. And Russia will be hard pressed to tell them no.

Actually China has been playing the long game in Russian Far East - they have invested heavily there and also provided with lots of migrants, turning some areas majority Chinese. Their influence will gradually and inevitably grow whatever happens in Europe.

 

[Ziggurat]

Sounds like the battles for Antonov airfield and Hostomel airport are still ongoing. The longer Ukraine can prevent transport planes from landing Russian troops, the better, but they'll likely fall eventually.

Russia would need to not only hold the airport, but quite a bit of surrounding territory as well. Stinger missiles have a 3.8 km engagement range, and a transport plane coming in for a landing is a prime target.

Not sure how much that really matters, though. It's only like 40 miles from the Belarus border, it's much easier to bring in troops by land than to fly them in and 40 miles isn't very far. Seems like denying the airport to Ukraine is probably a bigger deal than using it themselves.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Outside of historical significant is fighting around Chernobyl really worse than fighting around any other nuclear plant?

Yes. The core is a melted blob of seriously high radioactivity. You can't go near it without getting a fatal dose of radiation. They've only been able to send in robots for pictures.

It's hard to imagine why they would want it. The thing is entombed in concrete.

The cement containment structure is probably easily destroyed. But I agree, the radiation would spill into Russia in a big way.

...
The nuclear option makes all that theoretical. Any serious war with Russia would be more damaging than all other wars in history put together.

This ^.

I hate to say it, it's cynical, and my previous "Nobody really knows" caveat statement is in full effect but greed will keep China in check.

Their economy will completely collapse without people to buy their sweatshop made crap and only the US and EU have enough people and money to do that. They piss us off what are they going to do sell plastic dog crap and t-shirts to the Middle East?

At the end of the day they need a customer, and Russia ain't it.

I think the idea would be to invade Taiwan because the US would be busy with Russia. I don't think the Chinese government believes the sanctions would be serious because it's such a 2-way street.

Back on the Eastern Front the trade war consequences would affect the EU and related countries more than the US. That is the tightrope Biden has to walk.

Russia has begun arresting anti-war protesters as demonstrations break out after Putin invades Ukraine

It will be interesting to watch if the consequences of arresting those protestors is more dissidents coming out to protest.

But the real issue is how much opposition is there within Putin's government. That's where a revolution to oust Putin has to begin.

 

[Galaxie]

Russia would need to not only hold the airport, but quite a bit of surrounding territory as well. Stinger missiles have a 3.8 km engagement range, and a transport plane coming in for a landing is a prime target.

Not sure how much that really matters, though. It's only like 40 miles from the Belarus border, it's much easier to bring in troops by land than to fly them in and 40 miles isn't very far. Seems like denying the airport to Ukraine is probably a bigger deal than using it themselves.

Agreed on both, although I don't know if Ukraine has any aircraft left to use from the fields themselves.

Now the Kyiv Post says they've repulsed the attackers at Hostomel...

10,000 automatic weapons have been handed out to civilians in Kyiv....

 

[shemp]

Agreed on both, although I don't know if Ukraine has any aircraft left to use from the fields themselves.

Now the Kyiv Post says they've repulsed the attackers at Hostomel...

10,000 automatic weapons have been handed out to civilians in Kyiv....

The NRA is lovin' it.

 

[crescent]

Now the Kyiv Post says they've repulsed the attackers at Hostomel...

That statement was retracted by the Ukrainian defense minister shortly after he said it.

Then again, still contesting it is pretty good, nobody is going to land there. If they crater the runway, that will take time to cover over. There's value in delaying things, even if nobody has any clear idea what the time might buy.

Some reports that there's a Ukrainian counter attack at Sumy, NE of Kharkiv.

It seems like the Russians have so far had the best success with the push up out of Crimea. Ukrainian forces elsewhere seem to still be putting up a good fight.

I hate to say it, but I'm not confident as to how long the Ukrainian forces can keep up the fight. The war isn't even 24 hours old, and Ukraine is very badly outnumbered and completely lacks air cover.

 

[Galaxie]

That statement was retracted by the Ukrainian defense minister shortly after he said it.

...

Yes, and there have since been conflicting statements - like this one:

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1496953995444711437?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496953995444711437%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_47f1789c-95b5-11ec-a36d-c656a5b90760%2F0

#Breaking #Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense says army action in Hostomel prevented landing of Russian forces, reports continued fighting

 

[William Parcher]

CNN: US Secretary of State says evidence suggests "Russia intends to encircle and threaten Kyiv".

 

[theprestige]

CNN: US Secretary of State says evidence suggests "Russia intends to encircle and threaten Kyiv".

The Biden State Department, ladies and gentlemen!

Top. Men.

 

[crescent]

Yes, and there have since been conflicting statements - like this one:

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1496953995444711437?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496953995444711437%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_47f1789c-95b5-11ec-a36d-c656a5b90760%2F0

Now there are more reports that it has been recaptured by Ukraine, with some Russian special forces escaping into the woods surrounding the airport. Either way, they're not landing new forces there.

Also reports that the AN-225 "Mirya" is parked at that airport and has been damaged. Most heavy-lifting airplane in the world, built to move the old Soviet space shuttle around but since used for cargo.

 

[trustbutverify]

It will be interesting to watch if the consequences of arresting those protestors is more dissidents coming out to protest.

If necessary, Putin will make an example of a few of them, and that will be that.

But the real issue is how much opposition is there within Putin's government. That's where a revolution to oust Putin has to begin.

See above.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

US Troops already stationed in Europe

All the news reports of the US sending 7,000 service persons to Europe, I didn't hear or read one that mentioned how many of our troops are already there.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

If necessary, Putin will make an example of a few of them, and that will be that.

See above.

Saw pictures on MSNBC today showing at least a couple thousand protesting in Moscow. So either they selected a few to arrest (likely) or these folks came out after the arrests (less likely).

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Now there are more reports that it has been recaptured by Ukraine, with some Russian special forces escaping into the woods surrounding the airport. Either way, they're not landing new forces there.

Also reports that the AN-225 "Mirya" is parked at that airport and has been damaged. Most heavy-lifting airplane in the world, built to move the old Soviet space shuttle around but since used for cargo.

Interestingly I saw these stories today:

Russia Used Beatings and Tricks to Forcibly Send Rookie Troops to Ukraine, Rights Group Says


Ukrainian ambassador says Russian platoon surrendered to Ukrainian forces

Russian soldiers surrendered to the Ukrainian military, saying they "didn't know that they were brought to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians."

Maybe the lion that roared wasn't so big and brave after all. The best outcome would be Ukrainian soldiers beating back the invasion.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Has Boris published the list of 100 individuals and organisations that are being sanctioning? I can’t find it.

Today Boris said oligarchs in the UK will “have nowhere to hide”. On the same day Andrey Guryev, owner of Witanhurst, the largest mansion in London after Buckingham Palace, attended a solidarity meeting of oligarchs with Putin in the Kremlin. Pretty brazen.

 

[theprestige]

Interestingly I saw these stories today:

Russia Used Beatings and Tricks to Forcibly Send Rookie Troops to Ukraine, Rights Group Says


Ukrainian ambassador says Russian platoon surrendered to Ukrainian forces

Maybe the lion that roared wasn't so big and brave after all. The best outcome would be Ukrainian soldiers beating back the invasion.

Actually this raises something I'm embarrassed I hadn't thought of before: How does it work to tell your people that Ukrainians are Russians, and then also tell them to go in there and kick their fellow Russians' ass?

 

[crescent]

Actually this raises something I'm embarrassed I hadn't thought of before: How does it work to tell your people that Ukrainians are Russians, and then also tell them to go in there and kick their fellow Russians' ass?

It reminds me of apocryphal stories from the Vietnam war, of American soldiers sent there who expected to (sooner or later) run into Russians who were surely fighting alongside the Vietnamese.

Then, 10 years later, Russian soldiers sent to Afghanistan who expected to (sooner or later) run into Americans who were surely fighting alongside the Afghans.

These (Russian) soldiers (in the current conflict) were told they were going in to stop a genocide. I don't know whether they believed that or not. I'm curious to know what they really expected it to be like.