The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[JoeMorgue]

I always thought it was sort of an open secret that the NATO Non-Aggression Pack always held the implied "We're not saying the entire bar will come after you if you fight with one guy.... we're just saying if you pick a fight with one guy the rest of the bar no longer needs an excuse to come after you" kinda message to it.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Which is why the reaction to Russia matters. If Vlad can level an independent country next door to NATO and Germany won't even stop sucking on their gas pipeline, is the USA really going to get all trade sanctiony just because China places Chinese troops in China to protect the Chinese from China? There'll be some diplomatic tutting but people will get over it, just like they did Hong Kong

"Will" we? I dunno.

Can we? Yeah. Again we pretend like China has us by the balls when it's really the other way around. We could take their economy back to the goddamn stone age and only suffer a minor economic blip.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I will say though global pandemic, massive economic crisis, now this. Just.... great timing, thanks Putin. Everyone was thinking the world was too boring.

 

[Ziggurat]

China will absolutely back Russia up here because they'd like to take Taiwan the same way.

But it's not the same. Russia is claiming that these regions of Ukraine are rightly independent. China is claiming that Taiwan is a region of China and is NOT rightly independent. So it's really the reverse. To the extent that China supports Russia, it won't be because they like what Russia is doing in Ukraine, but because of shared interests in other areas.

 

[carlitos]

Well that's funny because the highest price within 20 miles of me is 3.49. 3.26 is the average.

Or is that the same damn Washington DC gas station that literally has the highest prices JUST so it can always be used as an OMG Gas Prices! meme?

I can't see the post, but I'm guessing it's that Death Valley station that gets posted sometimes. I made the Route 66 drive across the country several years back, and people who haven't been there have NO IDEA how remote this station is. The prices you quoted are reality-based.

 

[jimbob]

I hate to say it, it's cynical, and my previous "Nobody really knows" caveat statement is in full effect but greed will keep China in check.

Their economy will completely collapse without people to buy their sweatshop made crap and only the US and EU have enough people and money to do that. They piss us off what are they going to do sell plastic dog crap and t-shirts to the Middle East? At the end of the day they need a customer, and Russia ain't it.

China is following the path of the Asian Tigers. It's got a huge amount of semiconductor manufacture, as well as lots of other advanced electronics manufacture. It still is producing cheap stuff, but also lots that is far from low-end.

 

[Oystein]

Afghanistan. It was a NATO operation. It's the only time the NATO pact has been activated.

And Bosnia and Kosovo, sort of.

NATO was tasked and (partially at least) paid by the UN to patrol Bosnia. I actually was paid 28 times 50 Deutsche Mark by the UN in 1993 for participating in that action for 4 weeks total.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

"Will" we? I dunno.

Can we? Yeah. Again we pretend like China has us by the balls when it's really the other way around. We could take their economy back to the goddamn stone age and only suffer a minor economic blip.

Most analyses I've seen conclude it'd be mutual suicide. We don't have the capital to handle a sudden drop of Chinese trade without our economy crashing too. Then again, I haven't seen a lot of post-pandemic information. Hopefully we've pulled away a bit from relying on teeth-skinning just in time manufacturing for everything.

But it's not the same. Russia is claiming that these regions of Ukraine are rightly independent. China is claiming that Taiwan is a region of China and is NOT rightly independent. So it's really the reverse. To the extent that China supports Russia, it won't be because they like what Russia is doing in Ukraine, but because of shared interests in other areas.

"But but but, hypocrisy!" No one gives a crap about rhetoric. If any world leader believes that Russia really truly is protecting these nascent independent nations and that's why they're invading, they are a fool.

 

[GlennB]

That was earlier today. Russia has already taken Chernobyl.

It's hard to imagine why they would want it. The thing is entombed in concrete.

 

[JoeMorgue]

It's hard to imagine why they would want it. The thing is entombed in concrete.

Only one reactor. The over all plant was in use in some capacity to I wanna say 2010 and is still in the process of being decommissioned, and hell might still be "functional" for some definitions of functional.

 

[Oystein]

...
At the end of the day they need a customer, and Russia ain't it.

From China's point of view, Russia is too small to matter much. Tiny economy, small population, insignificant military safe for nukes. China is not going to go all interventionist either way. They traditionally do not care what other countries do, they just pursue their own interests bilaterally. If and when China (because perhaps of the way sanctions are set up) has to chose between Russia and Europe and / or USA, they'll prioritize relations with the West.

 

[theprestige]

My half-baked prediction is that if global warming eases access to mineral resources in the frozen north, China will suddenly find reasons why chunks of Siberia belong to them. And Russia will be hard pressed to tell them no.

 

[Oystein]

My half-baked prediction is that if global warming eases access to mineral resources in the frozen north, China will suddenly find reasons why chunks of Siberia belong to them. And Russia will be hard pressed to tell them no.

China knows that, generally, doing trade is more profitable than doing war.

 

[seayakin]

But it's not the same. Russia is claiming that these regions of Ukraine are rightly independent. China is claiming that Taiwan is a region of China and is NOT rightly independent. So it's really the reverse. To the extent that China supports Russia, it won't be because they like what Russia is doing in Ukraine, but because of shared interests in other areas.

I agree. A big difference is the the Taiwanese do consider themselves Chinese but don't want to be a part of Communist China. The Ukrainians have maintained a separate identity even when part of the Soviet Union. This is really a pretty big difference. I'm sure China is very happy to stay uninvolved and let the west get fixated on Russia and the Ukraine and continue expanding their influence.

 

[JoeMorgue]

My half-baked prediction is that if global warming eases access to mineral resources in the frozen north, China will suddenly find reasons why chunks of Siberia belong to them. And Russia will be hard pressed to tell them no.

That's literally the plot of Tom Clancy's "The Bear and the Dragon" which, no lie, has President Ryan trying to get Russia into NATO after China makes a power grab on Siberia.

Okay well there's a whole other subplot about Chinese police killing a Vatican Diplomat who was trying to stop a late term abortion which causes a huge boycott of Chinese goods and... it's a weird book.

 

[sackett]

"Military response" means more than just ground forces. Hell, I don't want a land war in Asia.

But drone and missile attacks are something else, and feasible at short notice. And no, I'm not proposing any pissabed "plausible deniability." If naval and land-based forces deploying unmanned air weapons move arrogantly close, close enough to dare Vlad to attack, they can clear those relatively narrow waters of Russian shipping, and disrupt their supply lines (vulnerable and vital, as always in war) using a variety of methods.

Perhaps it's finally time to wage some of that robotic war the sci fi fans have been imagining for generations.

 

[Ryokan]

But it's not the same. Russia is claiming that these regions of Ukraine are rightly independent. China is claiming that Taiwan is a region of China and is NOT rightly independent. So it's really the reverse. To the extent that China supports Russia, it won't be because they like what Russia is doing in Ukraine, but because of shared interests in other areas.

Russia is saying Ukraine has no right to be a sovereign nation, and is in fact a part of Russia.

Sounds similar to Tawian to me.

 

[Trebuchet]

USSR/Russia sure has a long history of this kind of thing.
Poland, 1939.
Finland, also 1939.
Hungary, 1956.
Czechoslovakia, 1968.
Afghanistan, 1979.
Poland (kinda), 1981
Georgia, 2008.

 

[Ryokan]

USSR/Russia sure has a long history of this kind of thing.
Poland, 1939.
Finland, also 1939.
Hungary, 1956.
Czechoslovakia, 1968.
Afghanistan, 1979.
Poland (kinda), 1981
Georgia, 2008.

Ukraine, 2014

 

[Ziggurat]

Russia is saying Ukraine has no right to be a sovereign nation, and is in fact a part of Russia.

Putin has said that, but that isn't (yet) the official position of the Russian government. The official position of the government is that Ukraine is independent of Russia, but that certain sections of Ukraine are independent of Ukraine (and also not part of Russia).