The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[JoeMorgue]

BBC are bigging up the Russian military, describing it as "one of the most powerful militaries in the world".

Seriously BBC? I mean I know they're way more powerful that the Ukrainian military but they're not that powerful.

The West has never really re-written the narrative around the Soviet Union to fit with Russia.

Again that's why all the talk is about whether or not NATO is going to call Putin's bluff, the default always seeming to be we're scared of him.

NATO was designed to fight the Soviets. Russia's a paper tiger compared to that.

But we still tell the story as if Russia isn't like 3 weight classes lower than the Soviets we were keeping in shape for for the big title bout that never came in the 80s because the Soviets passed down their boxing trunks so the Russians can cosplay as the Soviet Union.

 

[Ryokan]

I've always assumed the EU would be better off leaving NATO and making their own European alliance. That way they could still have a mutual defense system but not be constantly embarrassed by having to back up the US in its many botched imperial conquests.

NATO is a purely defensive alliance and is only activated if a member is attacked. That has only happened once in NATO's history - after 9/11.

And that was for Afghanistan. The NATO pact was not activated for Iraq.

 

[Meadmaker]

Seen elsewhere on the internet, Russian logic: when your neighbors start joining NATO because they're afraid you'll invade them, so you invade one of your non NATO neighbors to scare your neighbors away from joining NATO.


I think that win or lose, we're going to see nuclear politicking again. There's no damn reason to invade Ukraine. As targets go it's not strategic or economic, just convenient. The only strategy that makes sense to me:

1) Invade Ukraine, show some force, etc
2) Drive all your other neighbors to NATO in self-defence
3) Use the enemy at your gates to reignite the Cold War
4) Keep going by threatening nukes over every damn thing

Sanction Russia? Nukes. Close a pipeline? Nukes. The oligarchs have stolen everything else of value but that one trump card, so I think we're going to see it played. A lot. Maybe even used? Think Russia could nuke Kyiv and plausibly claim it was a last-ditch suicide bomb by evil Ukrainian neo-Nazi fascist pig-dogs? It would certainly give them the edge in brinksmanship with the West.

This is why I can't wrap my head around what's happening. I look at steps 1 through 4, and I don't see a positive outcome for anyone, and yet it's happening.

I don't see "nukes" in the future as much as you do, but I do think Putin seems to be deliberately returning to the good old days of the cold war, and those were not good days. They weren't good for the US. They were worse for Russia.

But.....for the people inside the Kremlin, and in general the Party bosses, they weren't so bad. The only thing I can see to explain what's going on is that Putin feels its better to rule in Hell than to serve in Heaven. He will make life Hell for his citizens, and probably his subjects in Ukraine and elsewhere, but he, personally, will be just fine.


Meanwhile, how many people have died in combat or "collateral damage" in the last day or two? For what?

 

[Ryokan]

Just when I thought this situation couldn't get much worse, there's fighting near the Chernobyl nuclear site.

That was earlier today. Russia has already taken Chernobyl.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Reports of a KA-52 taken down by a stinger near Gostomel. Video of the crashed helicopter and also of the missile hit taken from a block of flats in the city.

Looks legit.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

I know but it's still bizarre. It was talking like Russia could take on the world with one hand tied behind it's back, when in reality it already HAS a hand tied behind it's back due to poor and outdated equipment and probably would get it's ass handed to it either way.

Sure, the Russian military is big and it's not a pushover, but I'm pretty confident in saying that Europe could beat the **** out of it.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Outside of historical significant is fighting around Chernobyl really worse than fighting around any other nuclear plant?

 

[Andy_Ross]

I've always assumed the EU would be better off leaving NATO and making their own European alliance. That way they could still have a mutual defense system but not be constantly embarrassed by having to back up the US in its many botched imperial conquests.

When has NATO done that?

 

[JoeMorgue]

I know but it's still bizarre. It was talking like Russia could take on the world with one hand tied behind it's back, when in reality it already HAS a hand tied behind it's back due to poor and outdated equipment and probably would get it's ass handed to it either way.

Sure, the Russian military is big and it's not a pushover, but I'm pretty confident in saying that Europe could beat the **** out of it.

As best I can put it...

It's been so long since two major players actually had a war, I'm uncomfortable saying anyone really knows.

We don't know what a war between two major powers would like in 2022.

 

[Ryokan]

I know but it's still bizarre. It was talking like Russia could take on the world with one hand tied behind it's back, when in reality it already HAS a hand tied behind it's back due to poor and outdated equipment and probably would get it's ass handed to it either way.

Sure, the Russian military is big and it's not a pushover, but I'm pretty confident in saying that Europe could beat the **** out of it.

As I said a bit above, UK and Russia has about the same military budget. A war just between the two and no other factors and it would be somewhat of a fair fight.

Mix in the rest of NATO and there is no contest.

The nuclear option makes all that theoretical. Any serious war with Russia would be more damaging than all other wars in history put together.

 

[jimbob]

No, China is not going to war with Russia.

They are in a funny spot here. In general, China's interests line up more with Russia than with the West, but this case is an exception. And the reason is Taiwan (and a little bit Tibet and Xinjiang). China hates separatist movements (and classifies an independent Taiwan as one), and doesn't want to give the idea any legitimacy. China is under threat from separatists, it can't really use them as weapons against others. But Russia does like them, because that's how they peel off parts of neighboring countries into puppet states. So China isn't going to back Russia here. But because of their shared anti-US interests, they're unlikely to come to blows over this either. It's more that China just won't back Russia up here, even though on most other issues they will.

Yup

Russian actions are furthering Chinese wider foreign policy aims.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

No, China is not going to war with Russia.

They are in a funny spot here. In general, China's interests line up more with Russia than with the West, but this case is an exception. And the reason is Taiwan (and a little bit Tibet and Xinjiang). China hates separatist movements (and classifies an independent Taiwan as one), and doesn't want to give the idea any legitimacy. China is under threat from separatists, it can't really use them as weapons against others. But Russia does like them, because that's how they peel off parts of neighboring countries into puppet states. So China isn't going to back Russia here. But because of their shared anti-US interests, they're unlikely to come to blows over this either. It's more that China just won't back Russia up here, even though on most other issues they will.

China will absolutely back Russia up here because they'd like to take Taiwan the same way.

 

[Garrison]

That was earlier today. Russia has already taken Chernobyl.

And that doesn't make it seem one bit more secure honestly.

 

[Andy_Ross]

BBC are bigging up the Russian military, describing it as "one of the most powerful militaries in the world".

Seriously BBC? I mean I know they're way more powerful that the Ukrainian military but they're not that powerful.

Ten fully equipped divisions, 4 airborne divisions and a bunch of 'second line' partial divisions.
Hardware all a generation behind NATO, navy still almost derelict apart from a small number of modern ships.

 

[Ryokan]

When has NATO done that?

Afghanistan. It was a NATO operation. It's the only time the NATO pact has been activated.

And Bosnia and Kosovo, sort of.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I hate to say it, it's cynical, and my previous "Nobody really knows" caveat statement is in full effect but greed will keep China in check.

Their economy will completely collapse without people to buy their sweatshop made crap and only the US and EU have enough people and money to do that. They piss us off what are they going to do sell plastic dog crap and t-shirts to the Middle East?

At the end of the day they need a customer, and Russia ain't it.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Ten fully equipped divisions, 4 airborne divisions and a bunch of 'second line' partial divisions.
Hardware all a generation behind NATO, navy still almost derelict apart from a small number of modern ships.

Exactly. Yea, it's more of a concern than the military of San Marino but it's not that worrying. Their Navy in particular is just pathetic.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Afghanistan. It was a NATO operation. It's the only time the NATO pact has been activated.

And Bosnia and Kosovo, sort of.

Yes, but that wasn't "having to back up the US in its many botched imperial conquests."

 

[Beelzebuddy]

I hate to say it, it's cynical, and my previous "Nobody really knows" caveat statement is in full effect but greed will keep China in check.

Their economy will completely collapse without people to buy their sweatshop made crap and only the US and EU have enough people and money to do that. They piss us off what are they going to do sell plastic dog crap and t-shirts to the Middle East?

Which is why the reaction to Russia matters. If Vlad can level an independent country next door to NATO and Germany won't even stop sucking on their gas pipeline, is the USA really going to get all trade sanctiony just because China places Chinese troops in China to protect the Chinese from China? There'll be some diplomatic tutting but people will get over it, just like they did Hong Kong.

This is why I can't wrap my head around what's happening. I look at steps 1 through 4, and I don't see a positive outcome for anyone, and yet it's happening.

I don't see "nukes" in the future as much as you do, but I do think Putin seems to be deliberately returning to the good old days of the cold war, and those were not good days. They weren't good for the US. They were worse for Russia.

But.....for the people inside the Kremlin, and in general the Party bosses, they weren't so bad. The only thing I can see to explain what's going on is that Putin feels its better to rule in Hell than to serve in Heaven. He will make life Hell for his citizens, and probably his subjects in Ukraine and elsewhere, but he, personally, will be just fine.


Meanwhile, how many people have died in combat or "collateral damage" in the last day or two? For what?

Vlad's 70, and so far his legacy is the guy who sold Russia's future for Krokodil. He wants his bust up there with Lenin and Stalin, who were monsters but admired nonetheless for the monstrous things they did. Well, he can do monstrous things too! See if he doesn't!

 

[Ryokan]

Yes, but that wasn't "having to back up the US in its many botched imperial conquests."

Fair enough.