The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Thermal]

Well, if WWIII breaks out you better be fast to say "I told you so", lest we all get vaporized in nuclear hellfire first.

Hyperbole much? I'd assume limited tactical strikes, what with MAD and all, and the bulk of hostilities not reaching American shores, a la WW2. Putin is not being fellated by the White House so much anymore. He might want a show of power here

I agree and hope that this dies out quickly and quietly. Internationally, anyway. I don't think Ukranians are big on the whole dying angle one way or the other.

 

[theprestige]

Not imminent, but certainly on the table. Anytime a hostile nuclear power flexes against US/NATO interests, a sub-optimal outcome is threatened. Also, the Franz Ferdinand effect.

I don't think the Franz Ferdinand effect is operative anymore. The effect was mainly predicated on the great powers all making secret betrayal deals behind each other's backs, and powers that should have been talking to each other not actually talking to each other.

Things like the UN, the UNSC, and NATO go a very long way towards rendering the Ferdinand effect irrelevant. If, instead of signing a secret deal with Russia to backstab Germany, France were already allied with Germany, Great Britain, Poland, and Austro-Hungary, war would probably have been avoided entirely.

Germany's greatest fear, totally justified, was being caught between an imperialist France and an imperialist Russia. Their solution was to smash France first, then pivot to Russia before the bear was fully awake. They weren't expecting Great Britain to get involved, because like I said it was all secret deals and people not talking to each other. I don't really see a similar dynamic unfolding today. Though, between Biden, Macron, and Johnson, I suppose I shouldn't be too sanguine about the possibility.

Historically, the next big move should be Germany's. But I think we'll end up skipping all that and just go straight to Russia invading Poland.

 

[dudalb]

Is there a real threat of WWIII?

I'm not seeing any real indication that NATO forces are going to enter Ukraine to stop Russian invasion, and there's little indication that Russian forces are going to invade a NATO country. So long as this invasion remains inside Ukrainian borders, I don't see anyone willing to expand the conflict.

This is an utter calamity for Ukraine and certainly a further aggravation of diplomatic tensions between Russia and the EU/US, but I really don't see how this is going to spiral into a wider world war conflict.

I predict this will follow a grander scale version of the previous recent Russian invasions and annexations.

Problemis that PUtin will try it again if he gets away with it, and next time it will be a NATO member....

 

[JoeMorgue]

Geographically Ukraine is at a massive disadvantage. The conflict is basically starting with Russia already being completely dug in on 3 sides of them.

 

[dudalb]

Hyperbole much? I'd assume limited tactical strikes, what with MAD and all, and the bulk of hostilities not reaching American shores, a la WW2. Putin is not being fellated by the White House so much anymore. He might want a show of power here

I agree and hope that this dies out quickly and quietly. Internationally, anyway. I don't think Ukranians are big on the whole dying angle one way or the other.

SO let's just surrender now and let Putin be the emperor of the world.......

 

[dudalb]

Geographically Ukraine is at a massive disadvantage. The conflict is basically starting with Russia having them on 3 sides.

OH, Russia will overrun Ukraine, but the real fun will start with the insurgency begins......

 

[JoeMorgue]

Jesus Christ people this isn't another internet spat where we can just have the same arguments by proxy.

Next we'll be talking about whether or Russian is "canceling" the Ukraine.

 

[Ryokan]

Entry isn't refugee status. People fleeing Ukraine from Russian invasion aren't on vacation. Many will need permanent resettlement and a path to citizenship.

Yes. But it means they won't be stopped at the border, and it's easier to seek asylum from within than from without.

It also means they don't all have to stop at the Polish or Romanian border. They can travel to anywhere within the EU and other Schengen countries.

I have seen people publish travel routes Ukrainians can use to get to Norway.

 

[dudalb]

I am now convinced that "cool" cynicism is one of things killing democracy since it has a viewpoint that
any attempt to defend demoracy is doomed to failure.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Jesus Christ people this isn't another internet spat where we can just have the same arguments by proxy.

Next we'll be talking about whether or Russian is "canceling" the Ukraine.

Andy Ngo is saying Putin's aggression is antifa. I'm not joking.

Sometimes you just can't have any other reaction beyond "whew lad!"

 

[Ziggurat]

OH, Russia will overrun Ukraine, but the real fun will start with the insurgency begins......

I suspect this is a major factor in keeping Russia from invading the entirety of the country. If he only takes control of the eastern section, he can basically ethnically cleanse it so that there's nobody to run an insurgency. And with most of Ukraine still free of Russian soldiers, refugees won't be pushed out of Ukraine entirely, thus keeping pressure on NATO low.

 

[Vixen]

Russia says they need to get rid of the Nazis in Ukraine, and yet they are acting just like the Nazis in 1939.

Irony.

The USSR was hardly innocent on 1939, with Hitler and Stalin secretly
agreeing to divide up Europe between them in the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. To those who don't know, this pact didn't last long, with Hitler invading the USSR in Operation Barbarossa* screaming, 'Fooled you, suckers!!!'


*So named after Emperor Frederick who had a red beard (=barbarossa).

Frederick Barbarossa, King of Germany and Holy Roman Emperor, challenged papal influence and sought to establish German supremacy in Europe. He engaged in six expeditions against Italy and served for a time in both the Second and the Third Crusades.

wiki

 

[BobTheCoward]

What happens if the Ukraine army and government just collapses...folds like the Afghan government?

 

[Oystein]

Nuclear plants used to provide basic power. Now that Germany phased almost all of those out, what provides that? Coal?

ETA: did renewables replace that role?

Coal is still the biggest chunk in the mix, yes, but less and less, and nuclear still has a significant percentage. Renewables account for about half of all electricity, natural gas for around 10%.

Of all the natural gas that Germany uses, only 14% go to electricity plants. The majority goes to Industry (~35%) and private households (mostly for heating, bit over 30%). Add to this 8% that powers "remote heat" plants, and 12% that go to businesses for heating, and you see that most of the gas is needed to keep us warm. The infrastructure does not exist to swap this to nuclear energy.

 

[Ryokan]

Meanwhile, at the Japanese embassy in Kiev.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Already done. Biden signaled a week or so ago that a "minor incursion" would be tolerated. VP Harris just the other day flew to Europe to say in so many words that the US was absolutely not interested in having a war in Europe right now. Putin was probably signing off on the invasion orders before Air Force II was even back in the air.

All while getting loud and clear signals from the dodgy, insurrectionist-infected GOP and Congress that making war in defense of something as repugnant as national sovereignty (someone else's), or as "out of date" and threatening to Whine boys as vile democracy, was going to be nigh impossible.

I think Biden did as much as he could, given the wobbly home front and now openly treasonous GOP ("give comfort to enemies"...). It's NATO as a whole that should have been ready, willing and able to do much more, such as moving some troops into Ukraine near the capital for "training exercises", acting as a trigger to aggressive defensive action to be used in the same way Putin is pretending to use ethnic Russians in the East. The consequence of aggressive war must be full-on, head-on defensive war. Or surrender.

As for nukes, I don't think warfare kept inside Ukrainian borders risks that. Even if it does, Putin's declared intention of retaking all of the USSR -- which is what the newly independent territories are saying they now belong to -- an area which includes NATO member states, means war. Putin has declared war on all of us, not the Ukraine. Best be tough early, when it counts. Meanwhile, time to start threatening open traitors with what the law says they have coming.

 

[Stellafane]

Meanwhile, at the Japanese embassy in Kiev.

Um...that's pretty badass actually.

 

[Oystein]

Well, no. Natural gas has the ability to handle fluctuating loads, but that doesn't mean that operators only use it for fluctuating loads. It can and does get used for baseline loads as well. And since Germany is closing reactors, it's going to need something to replace that baseline capacity. Solar and wind won't do it, they aren't dependable. So what could take its place? The only real options are coal or natural gas. And coal is much dirtier than natural gas.

So there is quite a bit of overlap here.

Except that IN FACT natural gas has not increased in the electricity mix. Renewables have to replace reductions in coal, lignite coal and nuclear over the past decade.

So the fact that this is observed reality indicates to me it is possible.

Natural gas is NOT important in Germany for basic electricity supply, and therefore more nuclear would not help in the current situation to decrease dependency on Russian gas.

 

[Oystein]

Russian gas and a little bit of wind.

Why do you make up stuff?

 

[Thermal]

Um...that's pretty badass actually.

I'd be more impressed if he played dress-up in gear suited for actual 21st century combat. Kind of doubt he is ready to do anything but become a fancy pants corpse against the first passing private who offhandedly shoots him as he passes by.