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Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part IV

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So you have said. However, the JAIC never looked at the issue of water finding its way down the ventilation pipes and other sundry intakes, when even if this type of flooding is slower (cf Oceanos) it should at least claim to have actually investigated this area.

It is all very well you and the JAIC saying 'once 18,000 tonnes of water entered the superstructure it would irreversibly sink. However, that is working backwards from knowing that the Estonia's reserve bouyancy is 18,000 tonnes fully loaded, or it wouldn't float in the first place.

So the circular reasoning seems to be, "Let's see, the Estonia had 18,000 reserve buoyancy, therefore there must have been at least 18,000 tonnes of water ingressing (and extremely rapidly for it to sink within 0h 33' of doing so!)".


If the calculation was as simple as you say, i.e. "18,000 tons equals the reserve buoyancy so with 18,000 tons of water aboard it will just sink like a stone" then why did the report actually say
Calculations indicate - as an example - that 18,000 tons of water on board, distributed between the car deck and decks 4 and 5, would have given a heel angle of about 75 degrees
as I quoted to you yesterday?
 
That’s a “no”, then.
Of course it's a "No". Vixen has claimed in the past to be a bible expert. Yet still cannot spell my name even though it is from the magic book? Just how borked must one's understanding be not to understand their own magic book? Or even read it?
 
So Vixen, now Mojo has linked to one of your many, many posts where you wrongly claimed you were a scientist, care to retract your claim you never make untrue statements about yourself?
 
This also seems to give the impression that when the ship goes over it stops sinking for a minute.
It is still sinking, the hull is flooding, as it lists further other more openings are brought below the water and the rate of flooding increases.

Right; just because it stops rolling doesn't mean it stops sinking. But it can stop rolling while it still has enough reserve buoyancy to remain on the surface, even though it's now taking on water at a greater rate.
 
It is one of literally dozens of sources.


Then you shouldn't have any trouble finding some qualified marine engineers and/or naval architects who agree with him.

Bjorkmann is a qualified naval architect who got his masters at the prestigious Chalmers . . .


How do you know either of these is true?

. . . so I see no reason to disregard him.


And even if they are true, we have explained to you at length why degrees and professional certifications are not guarantees of competence, but, as has been your pattern, you ignore the explanations because you need Björkman (why do you keep misspelling his name?) to bolster your conspiracist fantasies.

He might be a pain in the neck and given to prolix . . .


Yet again, you attempt to minimize the evidence that Björkman has a tenuous grip on reality. To borrow MarkCorrigan's analogy, would you characterize David Irving as "a pain in the neck and given to prolix"?

. . . but I can see nothing wrong with his basic calculations on buoyancy and Finite Elements calculation.


Exactly why do you believe you are competent to critique his technical "analysis" (and I use the term very loosely)?

I couldn't care less what he thinks about other topics.


Despite the fact that those opinions demonstrate a monumental lack of understanding of physics and engineering?
 
So Vixen, now Mojo has linked to one of your many, many posts where you wrongly claimed you were a scientist, care to retract your claim you never make untrue statements about yourself?

Or a physicist, or a lawyer. or a psychiatrist, or a forensic attorney or an accountant, or a marine engineer, or a journalist, or...the hell with it.. Just how many wild claims shall we suffer? Before we have enough?
 
When he was posting here in the 9/11 CT section, Björkman was freely advertising himself as working in the marine insurance business as a loss adjuster. For all I know that job requires a degree in some form of marine engineering, but it seems he wasn't involved in shipbuilding as such.

And in discussions about the collapse of the Twin Towers he was adamant that no smaller part of a building could fall onto a larger part causing total collapse, as it would break Newton's 3rd law. Naturally posters in that forum quickly and easily found videos of commercial demolitions that instantly proved Björkman wrong (the Balzac Tower in France was but one, iirc), but he never did pay out the $1M prize he'd offered for any such proof. He's invoking Archimedes in exactly the same way in the Estonia discussion, presumably to sway those with a poor grasp of science?

Björkman is a sad, lying attention-seeker who's crap at science.

[relurk]
 
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Right; just because it stops rolling doesn't mean it stops sinking. But it can stop rolling while it still has enough reserve buoyancy to remain on the surface, even though it's now taking on water at a greater rate.


Indeed. And many large ships do in fact sink in that 90-degree-list (or thereabouts) orientation. Such as the Oceanos (and I still have no idea how Vixen rationalised the proven mode of Oceanos' sinking being so strikingly different from how she *thinks* the Estonia "ought" to have sunk....).
 
When he was posting here in the 9/11 CT section, Björkman was freely advertising himself as working in the marine insurance business as a loss adjuster. For all I know that job requires a degree in some form of marine engineering, but it seems he wasn't involved in shipbuilding as such.

And in discussions about the collapse of the Twin Towers he was adamant that no smaller part of a building could fall onto a larger part causing total collapse, as it would break Newton's 3rd law. Naturally posters in that forum quickly and easily found videos of commercial demolitions that instantly proved Björkman wrong (the Balzac Tower in France was but one, iirc), but he never did pay out the $1M prize he'd offered for any such proof. He's invoking Archimedes in exactly the same way in the Estonia discussion, presumably to sway those with a poor grasp of science?

Björkman is a sad, lying attention-seeker who's crap at science.

[relurk]


Ahhhhhh so that's where all those bizarre and inappropriate references in this thread to "Archimedes" are coming from!
 
Which says that the Estonia was certified as compliant by the relevant agencies as being fit to sail.
JAIC themselves had nothing to do with certifying the ship.

We know now that it was in fact not compliant in at least one important feature, JAIC detail this in the report.

That notswithstanding, the public are told in the report:

"5.2 Status of the vessel on departure

On departure from Tallinn on 27 September the ESTONIA was seaworthy and properly manned. There were no outstanding items either from the authorities or from the classification society's surveys. The maintenance standard of the vessel was good as witnessed by various instances."

Stop trying to evade it.
 
Indeed. And many large ships do in fact sink in that 90-degree-list (or thereabouts) orientation.

I posted another example of a ro-ro ferry that did exactly the same thing, only this one had room to sink until submerged.

If you follow Vixen's YouTube link you can see she's finally decided to start paying attention to how actual experts reckon roll stability. It's not a super presentation, because it's a guy sort of winging it at a white board. But production values aside, he's not wrong. The cryptically-named GZ curve does indeed show that there is a critical heel angle that, if exceeded, reverses the righting moment and means the ship will inevitably continue to roll up to a certain point. This is something we've discussed many times on this thread.

What his presentation doesn't say is where it will stop rolling. A naval architect will say that at this point the ship has begun to "capsize," but Vixen keeps equivocating this with turtling. While "capsize" has a number of informal meanings, in strict naval architecture terminology it simply means any non-transient roll that renders the ship unable to be navigated. A 90° sustained roll is a capsize. If a ship's maximum recoverable roll angle is 56°, a 57° roll could be considered a capsize. Yes, "turtling" is a technical term -- it's a sustained roll of about 180°. If your sailing career began, as did mine, with sailing small dinghies, you are taught the difference between capsizing and turtling.

Vixen admits that there are a number of parameters that affect any vessel's GZ curve. This is true, but it doesn't seem that Vixen appreciates what those are or what effect they have. The instructor in her video draws a good approximation of a round sailing hull. But what about square hulls? What about draft? What about hulll depth? What about beam-to-depth ratio? All these things matter quite a bit. The instructor doesn't go into them; perhaps that's a topic for his next lecture.

Another thing the instructor doesn't go into is what happens after the critical roll angle. Naval architects are primarily concerned with keeping the ship upright. What happens farther to the right on the curve isn't that interesting to them, but for forensic engineers that's where the fun starts. The curve is defined beyond that, to be sure. Points G and B (the centers of gravity and buoyancy, respectively) don't stop existing. The question is where the next equilibrium subdomain begins. No, it's not invariably at 180°. Just under 90° is also fairly common, especially with "tall" hulls. The instructor draws what looks like a sealed hull. Those exist, to be sure. But tall, square-hulled ferries aren't they. Once you've reached a certain roll angle near the apex of the GZ curve, you'll be shipping water through openings in the deck and superstructure. Then rolling is not your problem, but rather the massive increase in flood rate.

Which leads us to the next point. The big issue in Vixen's video is that the model presented is for intact hulls. That is, flooding changes the model, as do things like the shifting of cargo. The scenario presented is for rolling as the result of wind or wave, or, say, a turn executed too smartly. In flooding regimes, the GB distance can be reduced considerably. The model as presented doesn't accommodate the free surface effect. Presumably that's also a topic for another lecture.

Once again we see a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
 
All the certification and reports on condition are available.

We know that the ship was not compliant with collision bulkhead regulations.
We know that an exemption should have been applied for.
This would have restricted the ship to coastal routes of no more than 20nm from land.
Without the certificate it should not have been sailing.

All this is detailed in the report.

Then the JAIC should not have kept saying things like:

"5.2 Status of the vessel on departure

On departure from Tallinn on 27 September the ESTONIA was seaworthy and properly manned. There were no outstanding items either from the authorities or from the classification society's surveys. The maintenance standard of the vessel was good as witnessed by various instances."
 
That notswithstanding...

No, you don't get to just brush the facts aside.

...the public are told in the report:

And the report is fairly explicit elsewhere about what exactly the reader is being told with those words. Your fervent desire to make it mean something else is irrelevant.

Stop trying to evade it.

Stop trying to oversimplify and equivocate it.
 
Obviously it was. The JAIC assumed the public to be too dimwitted to notice the anomalies and omissions.

Nonsense. The report was intended to be read by people who would notice such things, had they been in it. The only "anomalies" and "omissions" you've come up with derive from your uninformed, naive expectations. No investigative body is going to concern themselves with dispelling willful ignorance.
 
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Just to add to what others have written, it is possible for a person to be a competent expert in one field, and yet be a hopeless crank in another. For example, Isaac Newton believed in and actively practiced alchemy. But someone who demonstrates such a tenuous grip on reality as Björkman has must be assumed to be incompetent in the absence of strong, credible evidence to the contrary. And as has been noted many times, you are not qualified to provide any such evidence.

Additionally, you have repeatedly protested that you are not promoting any conspiracy theory. Although this claim is demonstrably false on its face, I would also point out that using Björkman as a source does not tend to bolster your contention, as many of his claims are clearly conspiracy theories. His assertion about nuclear weapons is a particularly blatant example, which you attempted to handwave away by characterizing it as simply "an opinion." To state that this is like calling Holocaust denial "simply an opinion" is no exaggeration.

And finally, on that note, you have on more than one occasion claimed that anyone who doesn't support investigations into your various conspiracy theories is disrespecting the victims and their families. Yet Björkman clearly disrespects the victims and survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, going so far as to insinuate that there were very few casualties, and that all of the witnesses are either made up, lying, or were hoodwinked.

So please explain to us, Vixen, why you're okay with using Björkman as a source.

WAIT! Are you claiming Björkman is a Holocaust denier? Or is that an attempt to discredit someone who appears to have upset you in argument?

As for Hiroshima and Nagasaki, that is hardly an analogy, as the US bombing of Japan was an act of war, in retaliation for Japan's bombing of Pearl Harbour.
 
The passage Vixen quoted to support her claim also says that there “is some reason for thinking that the ship floated more or less on her beam ends for about a minute before finally resting on the sea bed.”

Vixen, what do you understand by the expression “on her beam ends”?

I do.
 
It's not clear what point you wish to make here but can we take it that you accept that Sheen did not say that if the ship had not grounded it would have have continued to roll over until it was inverted, however convinced you are that it would have done?

What is it you do not understand by Mr. Justice Sheen saying that The Herald of Free Enterprise turned more than 90°?

Did you not understand at all what Tammes meant, when he said the list of the Estonia was 30° to 40° and why he was in a state of panic?
 
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