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Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part III

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Vixen said:
Andresson was not known to be reckless. He was trained at Leningrad Naval College. He was backed up by at least two similarly qualified officers on the bridge at all times, so he didn't have free scope to behave out of the ordinary.
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Seriously? Can you not figure out that the actual evidence - in the form of the ship's position in open seas*, plus its high speed - serves to prove that Andresson was acting recklessly and negligently on that night?


* The other passenger ships in the vicinity that night were sailing far closer to the coast, for precisely the reason that this afforded them more shelter from the storm than they would have encountered sailing further out into open seas.
 
LondonJohn said:
And..... none of what you've written here addresses - in any way - the question of how the JAIC investigators would/should have been able to figure out where the Master was during the critical time period (ie between 1.00am and around 1.50am).

Try again. Once more, the question to be answered here is: how could the JAIC investigators have figured out where Andresson was during that critical time period, in the absence of reliable evidence of his movements?
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If they can find an attaché case in a front cabin with the name Voronin on it - having to literally smash the door down, no mean feat, you'd think it easy enough to ID the bodies on the bridge, captive incumbents after all.
 
Jack by the hedge said:
Once again you literally quote the description of the bolt being left on the dive support ship and then act as if you still fantasize it had never been brought to the surface at all. And then you have the effrontery to pretend others claim the JAIC had the bolt, which absolutely nobody at all has claimed.
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It's truly extraordinary, isn't it?

I am/we are still waiting for Vixen to provide (reliable, credible) evidence to support her claim wrt the bottom lock - any part of it - being "thrown back onto the seabed".

Though to be fair, I guess it takes quite a long time to locate evidence that doesn't actually exist.......
 
zooterkin said:
Tell me, Vixen, is that 2m more or less than the height of the waves, which were 6m?
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According to wiki:

According to the final disaster report, the weather was rough, with a wind of 15 to 20 m/s (29 to 39 kn; 34 to 45 mph), force 7–8 on the Beaufort scale and a significant wave height of 4 to 6 m (13 to 20 ft)[JAIC 2] compared with the highest measured significant wave height in the Baltic Sea of 7.7 m (25 ft 3 in).
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The car deck was 5m high so the waves needed to be >7m - about 21ft to reach the top.

Of course, the plimsoll line was probably lower than normal, however, due to pitching.

The stern ramp was slightly open at the top so someone must have opened it.

It is madness to think one could open the car ramp or even pilot door in such weather but the car deck had scuppers to drain off extra water so a reckless criminal might have thought it possible.

Criminals take risks. They are not risk averse.
 
Vixen said:
If they can find an attaché case in a front cabin with the name Voronin on it - having to literally smash the door down, no mean feat, you'd think it easy enough to ID the bodies on the bridge, captive incumbents after all.
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What are you on about now???

The question, if you remember, was how you believe the JAIC could have been able to track Andresson's movements, given that there's a total absence of evidence of his movements outside of the known facts that a) he was on the bridge when the first reports about the bow visor were received there, and b) he was not on the bridge when the ship actually sank.

What does all that stuff about "ID(ing) the bodies on the bridge" have to do with knowing where Andresson was? They knew that Andresson was not one of those bodies found on the bridge of the sunken ship. So they know he wasn't on the bridge as the ship went down. But they don't know where he actually was as the ship went down. How do you propose they should have found that information out?
 
LondonJohn said:
Seriously? Can you not figure out that the actual evidence - in the form of the ship's position in open seas*, plus its high speed - serves to prove that Andresson was acting recklessly and negligently on that night?


* The other passenger ships in the vicinity that night were sailing far closer to the coast, for precisely the reason that this afforded them more shelter from the storm than they would have encountered sailing further out into open seas.
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Andresson and the other officers only came on duty at 01:00 around the same time as the bangs and or collision sensations. How is he reckless if an external factor beyond his control caused the vessel to capsize?
 
Vixen said:
According to wiki:



The car deck was 5m high so the waves needed to be >7m - about 21ft to reach the top.

Of course, the plimsoll line was probably lower than normal, however, due to pitching.

The stern ramp was slightly open at the top so someone must have opened it.

It is madness to think one could open the car ramp or even pilot door in such weather but the car deck had scuppers to drain off extra water so a reckless criminal might have thought it possible.

Criminals take risks. They are not risk averse.
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Aaaaaand - unsurprisingly - you're totally failing to take into account the fact that a ship sailing into a swell (as the Estonia was doing that night) will rise over the high point of an oncoming wave, then fall down the downslope of that wave and dig into the next oncoming wave. And because of this alteration in the bow-stern orientation of the ship, even relatively minor swells can cause waves to break way over the entire bow of the ship.

On the night in question and wrt the ship in question, there's no doubt that every time the Estonia dug into an oncoming wave, high volumes/mass of seawater were able to flood into the exposed vehicle deck.


(Oh and you may entirely write off this crazy notion of "criminals" getting the bow ramp lowered then pushing their contraband-loaded vehicles into the sea. That didn't happen. And couldn't happen.)
 
LondonJohn said:
What are you on about now???

The question, if you remember, was how you believe the JAIC could have been able to track Andresson's movements, given that there's a total absence of evidence of his movements outside of the known facts that a) he was on the bridge when the first reports about the bow visor were received there, and b) he was not on the bridge when the ship actually sank.

What does all that stuff about "ID(ing) the bodies on the bridge" have to do with knowing where Andresson was? They knew that Andresson was not one of those bodies found on the bridge of the sunken ship. So they know he wasn't on the bridge as the ship went down. But they don't know where he actually was as the ship went down. How do you propose they should have found that information out?
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Surely the police made it their job to understand where Andresson was. If you were a police diver you would be very interested in establishing where each of the key parties were. The master, for one, and also to identify the persons on the bridge. It wasn't difficult, as the Rockwater divers went there to retrieve a logbook and navigational equipment.
 
LondonJohn said:
Likewise: osmium?? Cobalt???? Any other metals you'd care to throw randomly into the mix?
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Curiosity got to me again, explaining this 40 metric ton mystery.

Osmium - globally less than a ton is produced worldwide.

There is a lot more cobalt around, and a bunch of it comes from Russia, but I'm skeptical about Norilsk Nickel using Baltic car ferries to transport it.
 
Vixen said:
Andresson and the other officers only came on duty at 01:00 around the same time as the bangs and or collision sensations. How is he reckless if an external factor beyond his control caused the vessel to capsize?
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Do you even read my posts before replying to them?

The ship's captain is the person ultimately responsible for setting the course and speed of the ship.

In this instance, Andresson knew very well what the weather conditions were, and what they were forecast to be throughout the voyage.

Had he acted properly, he would have dictated that the ship should sail a course closer to the coast that normal, and at a lower speed than normal. The crew's job is to carry out the instructions of the captain - whether the captain is physically on the bridge at the time or not.

So, either 1) Andresson wanted the ship to sail closer to the coast and at lower speed, but was somehow unable to communicate this to all of the relevant crew; or 2) Andresson gave no such instructions to the crew in the first place. I know which of those two I find more likely.

(And incidentally, Andresson would have been ultimately blameworthy and negligent even in scenario (1) above: it's his job as captain to ensure that whoever is manning the bridge at any given time is aware of the captain's instructions.)
 
Vixen said:
According to wiki:







The car deck was 5m high so the waves needed to be >7m - about 21ft to reach the top.



Of course, the plimsoll line was probably lower than normal, however, due to pitching.



The stern ramp was slightly open at the top so someone must have opened it.



It is madness to think one could open the car ramp or even pilot door in such weather but the car deck had scuppers to drain off extra water so a reckless criminal might have thought it possible.



Criminals take risks. They are not risk averse.
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Watch the video Captain_Swoop reposted just today of a ship making its way in less than 6 metre waves and then come back and tell us this again with a straight face.
 
Vixen said:
According to wiki:



The car deck was 5m high so the waves needed to be >7m - about 21ft to reach the top.
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Reach the top of what? You do know the ship would be pitching up and down in to the waves?

Of course, the plimsoll line was probably lower than normal, however, due to pitching.
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Load line, call it what it is. How would it be 'lower than normal'? Do you know what a load like is?

The stern ramp was slightly open at the top so someone must have opened it.
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Why must 'someone' have opened it? the ship sank stern first, was subject to forces and stresses it was not designed for then hit the seabed.

It is madness to think one could open the car ramp or even pilot door in such weather but the car deck had scuppers to drain off extra water so a reckless criminal might have thought it possible.
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Madness indeed, why do you think it realistic?

Criminals take risks. They are not risk averse.
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Are they suicidal though?

How do the explosive planting Ninjas fit in to this?
 
Vixen said:
Surely the police made it their job to understand where Andresson was. If you were a police diver you would be very interested in establishing where each of the key parties were. The master, for one, and also to identify the persons on the bridge. It wasn't difficult, as the Rockwater divers went there to retrieve a logbook and navigational equipment.
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Once again:

The JAIC investigators knew that none of the bodies they found on the bridge was that of Andresson.

And given this, how do you propose they went about discovering where Andresson actually was as the ship went down?

Do you think the JAIC should perhaps have either a) dismantled the wreck in situ or b) raised the vessel, in order to locate and identify every body inside the wreck?
 
LondonJohn said:
Aaaaaand - unsurprisingly - you're totally failing to take into account the fact that a ship sailing into a swell (as the Estonia was doing that night) will rise over the high point of an oncoming wave, then fall down the downslope of that wave and dig into the next oncoming wave. And because of this alteration in the bow-stern orientation of the ship, even relatively minor swells can cause waves to break way over the entire bow of the ship.
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Maybe I should post this video of a ferry heading in to waves of less than 6m again.



or maybe this one. these probably are approaching 6m

 
Vixen said:
Surely the police made it their job to understand where Andresson was. If you were a police diver you would be very interested in establishing where each of the key parties were. The master, for one, and also to identify the persons on the bridge. It wasn't difficult, as the Rockwater divers went there to retrieve a logbook and navigational equipment.
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Police divers? where were they?
 
Vixen said:
It was an ordinary September storm. The car deck is 2m above the waterline.
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Well, according to you so are submarines.

How do you know someone didn't do exactly this type of thing before but without mishap?
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The same way I know they didn't use teleporters and Romulan disruptors before without mishap.

Getting into the mind of a criminal and saying 'they wouldn't do such a reckless thing', doesn't work as you cannot assume they are wired like a normal person, especially if illegal cargo worth $/€/£'000's is involved.
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Why would you assume that criminals generally aren't "wired like a normal person"?
 
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