Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part III

[Andy_Ross]

A usual way of expressing these quantities would be "US$4.72m on the street or €3.96m

And anyway, how have we now got onto heroin?







Likewise: osmium?? Cobalt???? Any other metals you'd care to throw randomly into the mix?






Got any evidence for that, specifically wrt the ferry services between Tallinn and Stockholm. Or is this just another "there is little doubt that...." which has been pulled out of thin air by you?






I see. And this "ruthless criminal" would have the means to a) ensure that his vehicle(s) was/were parked up right next to the bow ramp in the first place, b) get down onto the vehicle deck mid-way through the crossing, c) be able to get rid of the bow visor and get the bow ramp to lower all the way down, and d) manoeuvre his vehicle(s) sufficiently to push them off the deck, down the fully-lowered bow ramp, and off the ship into the sea? All without being noticed by a single member of the crew? And in a pretty severe storm?

Yes, that sounds plausible. Maybe you're right.

Don't forget it was just an "ordinary September storm"

 

[Vixen]

A usual way of expressing these quantities would be "US$4.72m on the street or €3.96m

And anyway, how have we now got onto heroin?







Likewise: osmium?? Cobalt???? Any other metals you'd care to throw randomly into the mix?






Got any evidence for that, specifically wrt the ferry services between Tallinn and Stockholm. Or is this just another "there is little doubt that...." which has been pulled out of thin air by you?






I see. And this "ruthless criminal" would have the means to a) ensure that his vehicle(s) was/were parked up right next to the bow ramp in the first place, b) get down onto the vehicle deck mid-way through the crossing, c) be able to get rid of the bow visor and get the bow ramp to lower all the way down, and d) manoeuvre his vehicle(s) sufficiently to push them off the deck, down the fully-lowered bow ramp, and off the ship into the sea? All without being noticed by a single member of the crew? And in a pretty severe storm?

Yes, that sounds plausible. Maybe you're right.

From the Felix report ibid as above:

According to the report, the Estonia was a crucial link in an enormous smuggling operation from the Baltic states to Western Europe. On the night of the disaster, the ferry had contraband cargo on board, including a huge amount of heroin and forty metric tonnes (40,000 kg) of radioactive cobalt and some osmium.

Probably Russian disinformation but Hummel thought it had a ring of truth.

Bear in mind, ten years later, Sweden admitted smuggling military materiel during September 1994 as a recorded constitutional fact and as minuted in the Rikstag in 2005.

 

[LondonJohn]

There is no conspiracy. Sweden (KSI, CIA and MI6) deemed it a classified accident. Hence the public were spun a story thought to be plausible, and as the bow visor came off it was feintly correct.

Except the public were not as dimwitted as they expected.

My word, you really do consider what you're thinking and writing to be some sort of pioneering fight for "the truth", up against the power and might of nation states (and the "compliant" media). Don't you?

There's only one small (and self-interested) section of "the public" that is holding dimwitted beliefs and making dimwitted claims about this disaster. And only one such person active in this thread.


(And it's news to me - and, I imagine, to CIA & MI6 as well - that CIA and MI6 are Swedish assets. Who knew?!)

 

[Andy_Ross]

From the Felix report ibid as above:



Probably Russian disinformation but Hummel thought it ad a ring of truth.

Bear in mind, ten years later, Sweden admitted smuggling military materiel during September 1994 as a recorded constitutional fact and as minuted in the Rikstag in 2005.

40 tons of radioactive cobalt and osmium? was he drunk?

 

[LondonJohn]

From the Felix report ibid as above:



Probably Russian disinformation but Hummel thought it had a ring of truth.

Bear in mind, ten years later, Sweden admitted smuggling military materiel during September 1994 as a recorded constitutional fact and as minuted in the Rikstag in 2005.

You know when I've referred in the past to the critical importance of credibility and reliability, when it comes to evidence and sources of evidence?

Well..............................

 

[Vixen]

Don't forget it was just an "ordinary September storm"

From wiki:

Esa Mäkelä, the captain of Silja Europa who was appointed on-scene commander for the subsequent rescue effort, described the weather as "normally bad", or like a typical autumn storm in the Baltic Sea.

wiki

The ferries do not run if there is a severe weather warning.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

The bolt was not. It was thrown back onto the seabed. The claim was it was 'too heavy for the helicopter'.

You posted a quote saying the bolt was left on the dive support vessel. Did you think the helicopter dived 80m down to pick up the divers?

 

[Andy_Ross]

From wiki:

wiki

The ferries do not run if there is a severe weather warning.

A storm doesn't need to be 'severe' to be dangerous.

You have no idea.

 

[Axxman300]

Why didn't the JAIC explain where Captain Andresson was? Surely that is the first thing that needs to be established in a public inquiry?

It might be one of them, but all they needed to know is that he was on the bridge when the bow visor came off. They know this because he took the report of excessive water coming in through the bow, and then ordered engineering to "monitor" the situation instead of sending damage control forward to get eyes on the situation.

They also know he was not on the bridge when the ship sank.

 

[Axxman300]

From wiki:

wiki

The ferries do not run if there is a severe weather warning.

Yes, but they also don't sail at flank speed, and alter their course as to avoid sailing head-long into the waves. The fact that the other Ro-Ro ferries that night sailed along a different heading should be an indication of the Captain's recklessness.

 

[Axxman300]

From the Felix report ibid as above:



Probably Russian disinformation but Hummel thought it had a ring of truth.

Bear in mind, ten years later, Sweden admitted smuggling military materiel during September 1994 as a recorded constitutional fact and as minuted in the Rikstag in 2005.

Had nothing to do with the sinking.

 

[LondonJohn]

It might be one of them, but all they needed to know is that he was on the bridge when the bow visor came off. They know this because he took the report of excessive water coming in through the bow, and then ordered engineering to "monitor" the situation instead of sending damage control forward to get eyes on the situation.

They also know he was not on the bridge when the ship sank.

I love that Vixen believes the JAIC Report should have "explain(ed) where Captain Andresson was", implying therefore that the JAIC investigators had some way of even knowing where he was irrespective of whether or not there was supporting evidence.

As you say, the JAIC were able to establish (via evidence) that he was on the bridge when the first report wrt the bow visor came through; and they know (again via evidence) that he cannot have been on the bridge when the ship went down. But other than that, how the heck are the JAIC meant to have been able to figure out where he'd gone in that intervening period, if there was no evidence to that effect?

 

[Vixen]

Yes, but they also don't sail at flank speed, and alter their course as to avoid sailing head-long into the waves. The fact that the other Ro-Ro ferries that night sailed along a different heading should be an indication of the Captain's recklessness.

Andresson was not known to be reckless. He was trained at Leningrad Naval College. He was backed up by at least two similarly qualified officers on the bridge at all times, so he didn't have free scope to behave out of the ordinary.

 

[Vixen]

I love that Vixen believes the JAIC Report should have "explain(ed) where Captain Andresson was", implying therefore that the JAIC investigators had some way of even knowing where he was irrespective of whether or not there was supporting evidence.

As you say, the JAIC were able to establish (via evidence) that he was on the bridge when the first report wrt the bow visor came through; and they know (again via evidence) that he cannot have been on the bridge when the ship went down. But other than that, how the heck are the JAIC meant to have been able to figure out where he'd gone in that intervening period, if there was no evidence to that effect?

AB Seaman, who was doing the rounds of deck watch, testified he saw Andresson going up the steps to the bridge at 12:58.

Linde is not a reliable witness. Another witness saw him sitting in the Admiral bar at 12:45-ish. Linde claimed to have had the sensation of the bow surging up on a huge wave that almost knocked him off his feet when he heard a loud bang. As his series of statements progressed, this loud bang diminshed into a sound you could only hear from 1.5 m away.

He caims he went to the information desk to ask that the car deck be opened, but it was never locked. He was more likely going to ask the lady there to put out an emergency message to evacuate but never did.

He was jailed for nine years for drug smuggling, in 1996. The Helsinki prosecutor wanted eleven years.

Oh, and the officers were all in uniform as part of their dress code, so it would have been easy enough for the Rockwater divers to provide ID details, even if they didn't know individual names or faces.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Andresson was not known to be reckless. He was trained at Leningrad Naval College. He was backed up by at least two similarly qualified officers on the bridge at all times, so he didn't have free scope to behave out of the ordinary.

All captains are trained and experienced and yet captains make stupid decisions all the time. Even highly trained and experienced Royal Navy captains end up on ships that run aground or ram things.

He sailed too fast in to a storm, he ignored problems and defects in the bow visor over a long period of time before the night of the sinking and he failed to make sure that when things went wrong they were responded to in a proper fashion.

A long career with no drama or emergency doesn't prepare you for when the **** hits the fan.
Sailing a regular run on a ferry day after day, week after week and month after month doesn't require high levels of skill or decision making.
We don't know how we will react when it comes to the crunch.

 

[carlitos]

A usual way of expressing these quantities would be "US$4.72m on the street or €3.96m

Yeah, thousands and decimals and the metric system seem elusive in this thread. In my world, a K means one thousand, unless we are talking about the purity of gold in karats.

40K kg heroin street price weighted average in 1994 was $118 per gram

40K kg of heroin = 40,000 kilograms = 40,000,000 grams times $118 per gram = $4.7 BILLION dollars in "street value." I won't bother with the Euro equivalent, since the Euro didn't exist for 5 more years after 1994.

ETA - I peeked at a UN report, and $5 Billion would have been around 10% of the global heroin trade. Or, at a wholesale level, the entire heroin output of Afghanistan.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

40K kg heroin street price weighted average in 1994 was $118 per gram or €99 equivalent. That would be worth US$4,720k on the street or €3,960k.

As for osmium, it is currently $400 per oz., cobalt $36/lb.

Where there is brass there is muck and there is little doubt smuggling took place.

Given Sweden admitted it participated in smuggling Soviet military and space secrets circa Septemebr 1994, there was likely some very serious organised crime around these ferries.

So, if there was some kind of tip-off the goods would be intercepted at Stockholm, then you can see that a ruthless criminal isn't going to have much compunction trying to get rid of it to prevent customs getting it. I have no idea if this is what happened but it is not beyond the realms of possibility.

This ludicrous fantasy is more full of holes than the Estonia. Let's just assume the completely made up drugs and radioactive metal was real. Why on earth does Sweden having used the ship to transport ex-Soviet military equipment mean that it was open season for someone else to smuggle heroin? Or do you propose the Swedish government wanted a heap of heroin? And then you surmise the smugglers aboard might somehow, despite your radio blackout, have got a tipoff that the customs people were waiting for them. So the cargo is lost. What to do? Abandon the trucks and walk off the ship like foot passengers? Too simple. Why not try to force the bows open while the ship is ploughing headlong into pounding 6 metre waves? I mean, it's not as if that kind of weather had smashed the bow doors of a dozen similar ships in the previous couple of decades. Is it? Oh. Wait.

It's insane. It's simply not possible to take such a cartoonish plot seriously.

 

[Andy_Ross]

AB Seaman, who was doing the rounds of deck watch, testified he saw Andresson going up the steps to the bridge at 12:58.

Linde is not a reliable witness. Another witness saw him sitting in the Admiral bar at 12:45-ish. Linde claimed to have had the sensation of the bow surging up on a huge wave that almost knocked him off his feet when he heard a loud bang. As his series of statements progressed, this loud bang diminshed into a sound you could only hear from 1.5 m away.

He caims he went to the information desk to ask that the car deck be opened, but it was never locked. He was more likely going to ask the lady there to put out an emergency message to evacuate but never did.

He was jailed for nine years for drug smuggling, in 1996. The Helsinki prosecutor wanted eleven years.

Oh, and the officers were all in uniform as part of their dress code, so it would have been easy enough for the Rockwater divers to provide ID details, even if they didn't know individual names or faces.

Strange how the witnesses that don't support your ideas are the unreliable ones.

What uniform 'dress code' do you think was in place on a car ferry in the middle of the night in a storm?
This was not a battleship dressed for review or a liner setting out evening meal at the Captains Table for VIP guests.

I bet it was a shirt with a warm pullover and a storm jacket if he had to go on deck, with maybe a peaked cap but more likely if anything was on his head a baseball cap.

 

[LondonJohn]

AB Seaman, who was doing the rounds of deck watch, testified he saw Andresson going up the steps to the bridge at 12:58.

Linde is not a reliable witness. Another witness saw him sitting in the Admiral bar at 12:45-ish. Linde claimed to have had the sensation of the bow surging up on a huge wave that almost knocked him off his feet when he heard a loud bang. As his series of statements progressed, this loud bang diminshed into a sound you could only hear from 1.5 m away.

He caims he went to the information desk to ask that the car deck be opened, but it was never locked. He was more likely going to ask the lady there to put out an emergency message to evacuate but never did.

He was jailed for nine years for drug smuggling, in 1996. The Helsinki prosecutor wanted eleven years.

Oh, and the officers were all in uniform as part of their dress code, so it would have been easy enough for the Rockwater divers to provide ID details, even if they didn't know individual names or faces.

And..... none of what you've written here addresses - in any way - the question of how the JAIC investigators would/should have been able to figure out where the Master was during the critical time period (ie between 1.00am and around 1.50am).

Try again. Once more, the question to be answered here is: how could the JAIC investigators have figured out where Andresson was during that critical time period, in the absence of reliable evidence of his movements?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Stop denying what is documented.







Why would Arikas or Kurm be hoping to find the missing bolt on the seabed if, as you erroneously claim (or rather, knowingly falsely claim) the JAIC had it all along?

Once again you literally quote the description of the bolt being left on the dive support ship and then act as if you still fantasize it had never been brought to the surface at all. And then you have the effrontery to pretend others claim the JAIC had the bolt, which absolutely nobody at all has claimed.