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Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part III

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I’d still like to know where Vixen claims they were missing from, when it was that they were missing, and how this fits with the claim that they had been deliberately turned off to prevent them being activated when the ship sank.


I'm equally baffled by Vixen's "reasoning" on this matter. After all, the EPIRBs were "missing" from their housings next to the bridge because..... the auto-deployment mechanism had worked as intended, and had released the (still switched-off) buoys loose into the sea once the hydrostatic release mechanisms had become submerged as the ship sank.
 
Why do some posters think deliberate lying is an acceptable form of debate?

You've provided no evidence that anyone is deliberately lying. They simply disagree with you, and are giving good reasons for doing so. Conversely, why does one poster seem to think abject ignorance is an acceptable form of debate?
 
Why the obsession with the buoys though?
They weren't needed, the Estonia broadcast a mayday that was picked up and rescuers arrived very quickly.

The buoys are a sideshow.

They are part of the puzzle as to why all means of rescue appeared to have been blocked. Bear in mind, Utö, with firm solid land and civilisation (a small population, military presence, lighthouse and hotels) was just 28 miles away.

Life boats not activated. Channel 16 interference. Phone network down. Epirbs gone AWOL. Not one single instance of passengers calling their loved ones. The series of bangs/collision sensation/violent list at 1:00-ish when most of the passengers were in bed in their cabins, the watch on the bridge was changing, the ship was half way through its journey, was in open sea, international waters. They had zero hope of rescue.


Had the Epirb on the starboard side come into contact with one to four metres of water when it listed - and Rockwater confirms it was hydrostatically activated - then, OK, so it still takes time for rescue to arrive but those people who had to wait until up to 07:00 - including the sole Brit - before being rescued, then the death rate amongst those who escaped the ship alone could have almost doubled to 262, by hel p being activated up to one hour earlier. That is someone's life, including children.

So, yes, the JAIC should have investigated in greater depth the logistics of how the EPIRBS were released from their cages yet failed to operate and how the dickens did they end up in Dirhami, West Estonia, 2 October 1994, together with a whole bunch of life vests and rafts, and how come the JAIC and the Rockwater divers omitted to even mention this.
 
You've provided no evidence that anyone is deliberately lying. They simply disagree with you, and are giving good reasons for doing so. Conversely, why does one poster seem to think abject ignorance is an acceptable form of debate?

Claiming that The Herald of Free Enterpise sank faster than the Estonia and that automatically activated Epirbs did not exist in 1994, are calculated lies, deliberately designed to be disruptive.
 
Claiming that The Herald of Free Enterpise sank faster than the Estonia and that automatically activated Epirbs did not exist in 1994, are calculated lies, deliberately designed to be disruptive.

Clearly not.

The comparison between Herald of Free Enterprise and Estonia is simply a different perspective on the problem of ship survivability than the one spoon-fed to you by Anders Björkman, and the product of careful consideration and, in many cases, personal experience. It's not a "calculated lie." It's just a considered statement that's different than what you have come to ignorantly believe.

The statements regarding EPIRB are largely correct. Multiple sources confirm that the ship was not equipped with the kind that activated automatically upon immersion, whether or not such equipment existed at the time. On this point we have devolved into your apparent inability to read and understand English. You're being given a well-documented, well-established objection to your ignorant ramblings and stilted attempts to read your beliefs into the source. Calling it a "calculated lie" is disingenuous and disrespectful.

To the point where we are disrupting your self-indulgent fantasies, yes that's what skeptics often do. But you are being disrupted with fact, not with lies. I see we've reached the point of the debate where you have nothing left except groundless accusations and insults for your critics. What do you hope to accomplish with that?
 
Claiming that ... automatically activated Epirbs did not exist in 1994, are calculated lies, deliberately designed to be disruptive.

You have 'misunderstood', Vixen. Hydrostatically activated EPIRBs existed in 1994, but none were installed on the Estonia.

It was GPS enabled EPIRBs did not exist until 1998.

I hope that clears that up for you.
 
They are part of the puzzle as to why all means of rescue appeared to have been blocked. Bear in mind, Utö, with firm solid land and civilisation (a small population, military presence, lighthouse and hotels) was just 28 miles away.

What was blocked? the mayday was heard and responded to.

Life boats not activated. Channel 16 interference. Phone network down. Epirbs gone AWOL. Not one single instance of passengers calling their loved ones. The series of bangs/collision sensation/violent list at 1:00-ish when most of the passengers were in bed in their cabins, the watch on the bridge was changing, the ship was half way through its journey, was in open sea, international waters. They had zero hope of rescue.

What lifeboats were not activated?

Channel 16 worked, we have the recordings of the maydays, it was working.
How many people had mobile phones in 94?
What evidence is there for it being 'down'? didn't one of the ships use the mobile network?

Rescue ships were on the scene quite rapidly.

Had the Epirb on the starboard side come into contact with one to four metres of water when it listed - and Rockwater confirms it was hydrostatically activated - then, OK, so it still takes time for rescue to arrive but those people who had to wait until up to 07:00 - including the sole Brit - before being rescued, then the death rate amongst those who escaped the ship alone could have almost doubled to 262, by hel p being activated up to one hour earlier. That is someone's life, including children.

Rescue arrived as quickly as it could.
It was dark and a storm. Helicopters for example are pretty useless in the dark in storm conditions, they can't see anyone on the surface, they did most of their work when daylight came.

So, yes, the JAIC should have investigated in greater depth the logistics of how the EPIRBS were released from their cages yet failed to operate and how the dickens did they end up in Dirhami, West Estonia, 2 October 1994, together with a whole bunch of life vests and rafts, and how come the JAIC and the Rockwater divers omitted to even mention this.

They failed to operate because they weren't turned on by a member of the crew.
How would they have got rescue ships there any quicker when they responded to the mayday straight away?

They got to where they were found floating because that is where tide, current and wind took them.
How would the Rockwater divers know where they were?

Their position of recovery is in the report.
 
Claiming that The Herald of Free Enterpise sank faster than the Estonia and that automatically activated Epirbs did not exist in 1994, are calculated lies, deliberately designed to be disruptive.

We know the HOFE sank faster.

Who says that automatic buoys didn't exist in 94?
They weren't on the Estonia, that doesn't mean they didn't exist.
Buoys incorporating GPS did not exist in 94.
 
Why do some posters think deliberate lying is an acceptable form of debate?

• The float free type (automatic activation):
• KANNAD 406 F/P: Container made of polyester with an internal membrane (CAL87).
• KANNAD 406 FH/PH: Container fitted with a HAMMAR release system (CAL 89).

Attached is the image of what it looks like. Compare and contrast with the one Koivisto has at his presentation.
The F/P/FH/PH/WH/S and SW types are all built using a common body. You cannot tell which versions are in the photographs. The version is identified on the power button and on the UIN plate. You cannot read those in your photographs. Those equipped with a water sensor has a "W" added to the model number. Those equipped with a Hammar cradle have a "H" added to the model number. Adding an "A" indicates a device intended for aviation use

In the subsequent decades that have passed since, their model number convention has changed somewhat. But those conventions are still largely in use even though the KANNAD range has been split into separate aviation and marine companies (although still closely related).

You can try to pretend you didn't know this, or that it isn't true. But that is information you already have been provided and chose to ignore.
 
Where do you get that from?

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=1371&pictureid=12421[/qimg]
It's odd. I often wear a suit for work. I also wear worn out clothes when engaged in some scruffy task for work. Ever try to lay Cat 6 overhead a suspended office ceiling? That needs a hazmat suit.
 
It's odd. I often wear a suit for work. I also wear worn out clothes when engaged in some scruffy task for work. Ever try to lay Cat 6 overhead a suspended office ceiling? That needs a hazmat suit.

Well, I had to help install thick-wire ethernet in the ceiling cavity at work, then lay thin-wire under the carpet tiles in the various offices. Obviously this had to be done the day after I had my suit dry-cleaned... :rolleyes:
 
Be that as it may, Asser Koivsito, Jan 1995, JAIC marine expert and adviser, together with Rockwater divers Dec 1994, confirms Estonia had automatically activated hydrostatic Kannad 406F EPIRBs, which were missing, with just the hydrostatically triggered cabinet/casing left behind.
1. What do you mean that they "confirmed" it? That means that it was already believed that the EPIRBs were of a particular type and that the divers found evidence that confirmed what was already thought.

2. How did the Rockwater divers "confirm" what kind of EPIRB the Estonia had, if the EPIRBs were missing from the wreck when they dived it?
 
They are part of the puzzle as to why all means of rescue appeared to have been blocked.


Ummmm, what? Your analysis of the evidence leads you to this conclusion? Really?



Bear in mind, Utö, with firm solid land and civilisation (a small population, military presence, lighthouse and hotels) was just 28 miles away.


And?


Life boats not activated.


Because of the way the ship listed to starboard so dramatically and so quickly (because of the underlying imperfect beam trim, plus the simple physics related to a very large volume/mass of water on the un-compartmentalised vehicle deck).



Channel 16 interference.


Still can't figure this one out properly, huh? Maybe read back through this thread, and take on board what plenty of commentators - people who've forgotten more about radio communications that you could ever hope to learn and understand - have told you about this particular matter.



Phone network down.


Nope.



Epirbs gone AWOL.


By which you mean "EPIRBs being correctly released from their attachment points on the ship and floating free, once the release mechanisms were activated by water pressure as the ship sank".



Not one single instance of passengers calling their loved ones.


Yet again, you're demonstrating your gross ignorance on the subject of radio communications. By 1994 a reasonable proportion of passengers aboard the Estonia would have owned/carried a mobile phone (you'll be effusively and jingoistically proud that the Nordic region had one of the highest early uptakes of personal cellphone devices in the World).

But........ the Estonia was some 30NM from both Uto and Hanko in the time period from it first getting into trouble (ie the point where the bow visor's bottom lock failed) and the moment it sank. There was effectively no chance that mobile phones of the time - with much less powerful transceivers than present-day devices, and using the NMT standard - would have been able to connect to any base station (= cell site) on land.

And this (and only this) is the reason why passengers aboard the Estonia were unable to use their cellphones during the disaster that night.

The reason why crew on the Mariella and Europa were able to use their mobiles was that those ships were some 30%-50% closer to relevant land masses and base stations during the relevant time period.



The series of bangs/collision sensation/violent list at 1:00-ish when most of the passengers were in bed in their cabins, the watch on the bridge was changing, the ship was half way through its journey, was in open sea, international waters. They had zero hope of rescue.


Strangely, I seem to recall that 137 people were rescued and survived.


Had the Epirb on the starboard side come into contact with one to four metres of water when it listed - and Rockwater confirms it was hydrostatically activated - then, OK, so it still takes time for rescue to arrive but those people who had to wait until up to 07:00 - including the sole Brit - before being rescued, then the death rate amongst those who escaped the ship alone could have almost doubled to 262, by hel p being activated up to one hour earlier. That is someone's life, including children.


No. Once again, those EPIRBs were not hydrostatically activated. You've now been told this - with ample reliable supporting evidence - probably a dozen times (or even more).

And as you've also been told plenty of times already now, in the specific instance of the Estonia sinking, the fact that the ship's EPIRBs were not (manually) activated actually made no difference whatsoever to the efficacy of the rescue efforts: the crew were able to transmit ship's true position by voice over regular radio channels well before she sank.

Oh, and your final sentence above is yet another improper attempt to inject some sort of emotional "tug" to your claims. Real researchers/analysts never engage in that sort of stuff.



So, yes, the JAIC should have investigated in greater depth the logistics of how the EPIRBS were released from their cages yet failed to operate and how the dickens did they end up in Dirhami, West Estonia, 2 October 1994, together with a whole bunch of life vests and rafts, and how come the JAIC and the Rockwater divers omitted to even mention this.


Well, the JAIC investigation did cover off the failure of the crew to (manually) activate the EPIRBs, so I have no idea what you're talking about. And where the EPIRBs were eventually discovered simply has no bearing whatsoever upon the JAICs conclusions wrt the cause(s) of this disaster.


Vixen: every time a far more well-informed and knowledgeable person that you deals with each and every one of these issues - using a proper understanding of the science, a proper understanding of the evidence, and a proper approach to analysis/inference/conclusion - do you (metaphorically) stick your fingers in your ears? Because IMO there's more-or-less no other way to explain things.
 
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The F/P/FH/PH/WH/S and SW types are all built using a common body. You cannot tell which versions are in the photographs. The version is identified on the power button and on the UIN plate. You cannot read those in your photographs. Those equipped with a water sensor has a "W" added to the model number. Those equipped with a Hammar cradle have a "H" added to the model number. Adding an "A" indicates a device intended for aviation use

In the subsequent decades that have passed since, their model number convention has changed somewhat. But those conventions are still largely in use even though the KANNAD range has been split into separate aviation and marine companies (although still closely related).

You can try to pretend you didn't know this, or that it isn't true. But that is information you already have been provided and chose to ignore.



Yes. Ironically, one of the images of this EPIRB model that Vixen herself posted here....... explicitly explained that there were various sub-variants - one of which was for activation via a manually-operated switch.

And we know for certain that the sub-variant of EPIRBs that were carried by the Estonia that night were indeed of the "manual switch-on" variety, because the JAIC Report explicitly tells us so.
 
Ships arrived on the scene to begin rescue efforts in less time than it might have taken the satellite system even to locate where an EPIRB distress signal was coming from, had one been activated. So the failure to activate the buoys had no effect on the rescue efforts after the sinking.

The only significance they have is as one bullet point on Vixen's list of things-that-seem-fishy-to-Vixen. To earn their place on the list, their non-activation has to be mysterious and sinister rather than mundane. So Vixen will not believe the irrelevant EPIRBs were manually activated models no matter what sources say.
 
Reality Check:

Suppose the Estonia managed to give her coordinates to the responding ships on that first MAYDAY exchange, and the crew activated the buoys. How much faster would the rescue group have arrived, and how many more passengers would have been saved?

By the time they make the MAYDAY call it was too late, passengers were largely trapped in their rooms, in hallways, and on staircases throughout the ship due to the list. The only passengers who had a chance were the ones who died from hypothermia. We're not talking about about a lot more people, not that they were not important, but as far as this tangent goes the buoy nonsense and the radio quality is a non-factor in the outcome.

Estonia needed to make that MAYDAY call right after the bow visor came off. Lifeboats and life-rafts could have been loaded and deployed earlier with far more passengers, and there is a good chance the ship stays afloat long enough to get most everyone off. They never inspected the car deck, and they never checked the visor from the forward deck (which would have revealed it was gone). And this is the crux of the disaster, the captain and crew failed in basic seamanship.
 
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