Will there be a severe flu season this year?

Puppycow

Penultimate Amazing
Puppycow
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So I heard about this first from my wife, who read about it in the Japanese media. Apparently the experts here in Japan are worried about a bad flu season this year and are urging everyone to get vaccinated for the flu. I'm very pro-vaccine myself and will likely get mine just to be safe. But I also remember the same experts warning about a "Twindemic" flu season last year that never materialized. In fact, flu was practically non-existent last year compared to a typical year. There was Covid of course, but no flu.

So, they are warning again this year. I googled for articles on the topic and found this:

CDC director warns the U.S. is at risk of a severe flu season this year

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention influenza experts are concerned that the United States could be at risk for a severe flu season this year, Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky warned Wednesday.

That’s because the U.S. population may now have reduced immunity against influenza after seasonal flu cases reached an all-time low last year when large parts of the nation were shut down, Walensky told reporters during a White House press briefing.

During the 2020-2021 flu season, there were very few flu cases, “largely because of masking and physical distancing and other prevention measures put in place for the Covid-19 pandemic,” she said.
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And even the same word is being trotted out again this year, after last year's predicted "twindemic" failed to materialize:
Experts fear a COVID-19 and flu 'twindemic’

  • Although there was very little flu activity last year, experts are concerned that the 2021–2022 flu season may be more difficult.
  • The relaxation of pandemic safety measures that also inhibited the spread of other respiratory viruses, such as influenza, may encourage flu infections.
  • Experts know little about treating people who have COVID-19 and the flu at the same time, but there is reason to think that it might lead to more severe outcomes.
As we enter this year’s flu season, experts are strongly encouraging people to get vaccinated against influenza. There are reasons to anticipate a difficult flu season occurring alongside the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Such a “twindemic” could lead to more severe illnesses and a higher death rate.
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The reason that I am a bit skeptical, at least in the case of Japan, is that people here are still taking precautions against Covid, albeit maybe somewhat relaxed. The supermarkets still have the plastic barriers up and masks are the rule. People on public transport and public spaces are still masking. People are just more careful in general than they were pre-Covid-19.
 
I'm monitoring the CDC's weekly influenza dashboard. Normally in flu season they get hundreds to thousands of PCR flu reports around the country weekly. In March 2020 flu dropped like a rock and the weekly totals have stayed in the single digits since.. Looking at prior seasons one can see where the ramp starts and get a good idea of how much advance notice we will have. I'm going to wait until I see increases of 5/wk or so to get my flu vaccine. No signs yet of anything but I want to time the vaccine for maximum immunity during the peak which is typically 2-3 months or so after such increases. Don't know if Japan has something similar. R is pretty low for flu but it's absence may increase susceptibility. I don't have a sense of whether it will be significant this winter or not.
 
From my first link in the OP, this is really amazing if you think about it:
There were around 2,000 flu cases last influenza season, according to data reported to the CDC. By comparison, the 2019-2020 flu season saw an estimated 35 million cases, according to the agency.
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From 35 million to only 2,000. That's over a 10,000-fold difference. But that was last year. Maybe this year will be different. 35 million cases was just a normal flu season in America.
 
Ah, thanks for that. So we really haven't yet seen anything like a typical pre-pandemic year yet this year.
 
Puppycow said:
The reason that I am a bit skeptical, at least in the case of Japan, is that people here are still taking precautions against Covid, albeit maybe somewhat relaxed. The supermarkets still have the plastic barriers up and masks are the rule. People on public transport and public spaces are still masking. People are just more careful in general than they were pre-Covid-19.
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The problem is that with the COVID vaccine rollout, businesses are opening up and people are relaxing their precautions. We in the ACT had a record low flu season last year, but with everybody taking off the masks and gathering in crowds indoors again, the expectation is that there'll be a surge in flu cases.

In my opinion governments need to do an ad binge about flu vaccination. "It worked for COVID, let's make it work for flu".
 
arthwollipot said:
The problem is that with the COVID vaccine rollout, businesses are opening up and people are relaxing their precautions. We in the ACT had a record low flu season last year, but with everybody taking off the masks and gathering in crowds indoors again, the expectation is that there'll be a surge in flu cases.

In my opinion governments need to do an ad binge about flu vaccination. "It worked for COVID, let's make it work for flu".
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I can tell you that people in Japan will definitely not be taking off their masks in large numbers over the winter.

One of the issues seems to be a shortage of flu jabs. My work is usually pretty good at giving people shots with their annual medical but they are talking off shortages this year. My wife has also been having trouble getting hers and one for our son.
 
Japan (and China) are probably going to have a better flu season than the US, the UK and Australia because they won't be taking off their masks. It's more a part of the culture there than it is here. We can't wait to get rid of the damn things.
 
arthwollipot said:
Japan (and China) are probably going to have a better flu season than the US, the UK and Australia because they won't be taking off their masks. It's more a part of the culture there than it is here. We can't wait to get rid of the damn things.
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I was wondering if there was mask resistance in other countries than the U.S. Here it seems to be mostly a political thing.
 
The Canadian situation:

There were almost no flu cases in Canada last year. Will that make this year’s season more deadly?

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada...-that-make-this-years-season-more-deadly.html

Canada’s still-fragile medical system is bracing for a flu season that some experts fear will be more severe after COVID-19 measures inadvertently suppressed the virus last year, lowering natural immunity.

Shipments of flu vaccine have already begun rolling out across the country, and Ontario for one says it’s preparing for its biggest flu vaccine campaign in provincial history.
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“Last year, because of the lockdowns, public health, distancing, masking, handwashing, etc., there was actually very little influenza,” said Dr. Anna Banerji, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto. “When you don’t have influenza for a while, then usually when it comes back, it is usually more severe.

“I think it probably will be a very deadly flu year.”
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(Article is behind a paywall. I get access as part of my newspaper subscription).
 
arthwollipot said:
There are a few anti-maskers here. Not very many. The number is small enough that the rest of us are keeping us safe.
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I don't think the typical mask, as typically worn, actually makes much of a difference. But, every little bit helps, especially when you're interacting with the public all day. I wear mine mostly out of respect for the people who do worry about it and take it seriously. And also out of respect for my community, which really doesn't need That Guy right now. Truth be told I'm not much inclined to be That Guy anyway.
 
Puppycow said:
From my first link in the OP, this is really amazing if you think about it:


From 35 million to only 2,000. That's over a 10,000-fold difference. But that was last year. Maybe this year will be different. 35 million cases was just a normal flu season in America.
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What do you think is more likely? That actual H1N1 infection dropped off of a cliff due to Covid measures taken in 2020 (which, incidentally, failed to put a dent in Covid infection), or that both Covid and H1N1 infection statistics are farcical, the latter being mistaken for, and thus being cannibalized by the former?
 
theprestige said:
I don't think the typical mask, as typically worn, actually makes much of a difference. But, every little bit helps, especially when you're interacting with the public all day. I wear mine mostly out of respect for the people who do worry about it and take it seriously. And also out of respect for my community, which really doesn't need That Guy right now. Truth be told I'm not much inclined to be That Guy anyway.
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Cloth masks are a joke - this from a nurse I know in a Florida Covid ICU. The only useful masks from a disease prevention standpoint are N95 or N100 respirators, neither of which can be worn for extended periods without developing hypercarbia.

It's rare that I see anyone with masks now here in Florida, and I like it that way. Hopefully mask wearers will begin to be stigmatized, much like vax-mandaters seek to stigmatize the purebloods.
 
I don't get the calculus why it would be expected that one (essentially) "no-flu" season would be likely to be followed by a "severe", even "deadly" flu season. It is my understanding that the flu comes in several different strains, which makes selecting the ones to vaccinate against an interesting game. So the next dominating flu strain may be different strain than last season's strain, and anyone who had last season's strain would then go into the next season with low protection.
Also, it is not like everyone, or a majority, or even just a significant percentage of the population gets infected in a typical season, and so a solid majority of people starts into the coming season no different than they would any other year.

Now, here in Germany I expect that some level of mask mandates and limiting crowd densities, plus somewhat improved hygiene manners by common people (using disinfectants, washing hands, staying home with mild symptoms), will continue through the coming winter, and that will, in my estimate, give us another below-average flu season.

I do want to get vaccinated, but have so far trouble reaching my practitioner's office...
Instead, I am scheduled to get my Covid booster shot (the 3rd one) at work on Wednesday.
 
Depends who you want to listen to. Big Pharma crowd or the people who work on their own Immune Systems.

I'm no vaccine lover, have NOT done a flu jab in over 40 yrs and keep my body loaded with

Vit C, Vit D, Zinc, Quercetin, and my great salvation, Grape Seed Extract.:D
 
Caroline13 said:
The benefits of the mask push, MORE MASK INDUSTRIES founded. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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Small potatoes compared to the Great Pants Scam, that's been going on for centuries! Look at any clothing store. You'll maybe find one small display of masks squeezed in somewhere, and rack after rack after rack of trousers, jeans, briefs, and leggings. Where's the real money? Which is the bigger conspiracy? Everywhere you go, people are not only wearing butt muzzles, they're also shaming and persecuting the freedom lovers who refuse to submit. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
 
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Myriad said:
Small potatoes compared to the Great Pants Scam, that's been going on for centuries! Look at any clothing store. You'll maybe find one small display of masks squeezed in somewhere, and rack after rack after rack of trousers, jeans, briefs, and leggings. Where's the real money? Which is the bigger conspiracy? Everywhere you go, people are not only wearing butt muzzles, they're also shaming and persecuting the freedom lovers who refuse to submit. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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Yep. It's all a conspiracy by BIG PANTS!!!!!
 
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