Will there be a severe flu season this year?

[Caroline13]

The mask industries are small potatoes that is true, but what do have pants and leggings have to do with this post. So we wear clothing, maybe we all need to go nude and be muzzled and no clothes. geeeeeeeeeeezzz

 

[Puppycow]

What do you think is more likely? That actual H1N1 infection dropped off of a cliff due to Covid measures taken in 2020 (which, incidentally, failed to put a dent in Covid infection), or that both Covid and H1N1 infection statistics are farcical, the latter being mistaken for, and thus being cannibalized by the former?

The former actually.

 

[Resume]

Quercetin, and my great salvation, Grape Seed Extract.

Bull **** snake oil.

 

[alfaniner]

Depends who you want to listen to. Big Pharma crowd or the people who work on their own Immune Systems.

I'm no vaccine lover, have NOT done a flu jab in over 40 yrs and keep my body loaded with

Vit C, Vit D, Zinc, Quercetin, and my great salvation, Grape Seed Extract.

Depends who you want to listen to. Big Pharma crowd, which has to do rigorous trials and testing before a medication ever reaches the public, or the people who work on don't know **** about their own Immune Systems.

 

[mgidm86]

Cloth masks are a joke - this from a nurse I know in a Florida Covid ICU. The only useful masks from a disease prevention standpoint are N95 or N100 respirators, neither of which can be worn for extended periods without developing hypercarbia.

It's rare that I see anyone with masks now here in Florida, and I like it that way. Hopefully mask wearers will begin to be stigmatized, much like vax-mandaters seek to stigmatize the purebloods.

Well who can argue with an unnamed nurse from the state that was hit the worst all summer long? Your post is one big lie, except for the part about Floridians not wearing masks. My friend verifies that as do the statistics.

 

[Athyrio]

Cloth masks are a joke - this from a nurse I know in a Florida Covid ICU. The only useful masks from a disease prevention standpoint are N95 or N100 respirators, neither of which can be worn for extended periods without developing hypercarbia.

It's rare that I see anyone with masks now here in Florida, and I like it that way. Hopefully mask wearers will begin to be stigmatized, much like vax-mandaters seek to stigmatize the purebloods.

I live in Florida. I wear a mask when I leave my house. I see others wearing masks but overwhelmingly, most in my area do not.

I write in a diary every day primarily to help my memory. When COVID 19 hit, I included a daily number of USA deaths from Worldometer. My wife and I have been fully vaccinated and when those statistics began going down I began to “drop my guard”. I didn’t sanitize my hands as frequently and I kept a mask in my pocket and only put it on in places if I saw one other person wearing one and had plans to gradually reduce wearing it until the delta variant hit. Now I’m back to my original precautions.

For years whenever I have seen footage of news in Japan, I saw citizens wearing masks. All these years I thought it was a smog issue. It never occurred to me that that it was more a viral issue.

All I know is this - since March of 2020 I have been conscious of mask wearing, hand washing, and social distancing. Those 3. I have not had the common cold since the Fall of 2019 when I used to have 2-3 per season before I retired and at least one a year for all of my life. I don’t know if it’s 1 or 2 or all 3 of those precautions but something there is working for me.

I’m going to wear a mask the rest of my life until it gets outlawed again, stigmatization be damned. I don’t care if I get ostracized. I think Japan knows what the hell works there too.

 

[marting]

I live in Florida. I wear a mask when I leave my house. I see others wearing masks but overwhelmingly, most in my area do not.

I write in a diary every day primarily to help my memory. When COVID 19 hit, I included a daily number of USA deaths from Worldometer. My wife and I have been fully vaccinated and when those statistics began going down I began to “drop my guard”. I didn’t sanitize my hands as frequently and I kept a mask in my pocket and only put it on in places if I saw one other person wearing one and had plans to gradually reduce wearing it until the delta variant hit. Now I’m back to my original precautions.

In San Diego not many people are wearing masks. No mandates and only a few places require them like the Post Office because it's federal. Fairly high Vax rates here but not super high. Fl. is only slightly lower.

However, cases in Fl. have been dropping like a rock and I think your case rate per capita is now lower than Calif.

C19 delta hit Fl. hard. Much worse than the other waves but it's also dropping faster than almost anywhere. Weather of course. Similar pattern to last summer. Now it's moving into the midwest and northeast as it gets colder and people congregate indoors with less ventilation. Ramps aren't as steep as they were in Fla and the CFR is lower (under 1 v about 1.5 - 2 in Fl). That's likely because of a higher percentage of breakthroughs in the north are where more are vaxxed. Still a big difference. Probably indicates unvaxxed were more likely to socialize with other unvaxxed in Fl. That said, Fl. has a pretty good portion of the old and vulnerable vaxxed so a good fraction of the remaining unvaxxed that survived are now somewhat immune having caught it over the last few months.

Good chance this was the last significant wave in Fl. but I expect waves in north somewhat reduced because of the higher vax rate in the over 60's and higher degree of prior infection in some places like NY, MA, NJ...

As for Flu, there's a study out that indicates people have less severe Covid if they have had a flu shot in the prior 6 months. Something like 30% reduction.

 

[Puppycow]

In San Diego not many people are wearing masks. No mandates and only a few places require them like the Post Office because it's federal. Fairly high Vax rates here but not super high. Fl. is only slightly lower.

However, cases in Fl. have been dropping like a rock and I think your case rate per capita is now lower than Calif.

C19 delta hit Fl. hard. Much worse than the other waves but it's also dropping faster than almost anywhere. Weather of course. Similar pattern to last summer. Now it's moving into the midwest and northeast as it gets colder and people congregate indoors with less ventilation. Ramps aren't as steep as they were in Fla and the CFR is lower (under 1 v about 1.5 - 2 in Fl). That's likely because of a higher percentage of breakthroughs in the north are where more are vaxxed. Still a big difference. Probably indicates unvaxxed were more likely to socialize with other unvaxxed in Fl. That said, Fl. has a pretty good portion of the old and vulnerable vaxxed so a good fraction of the remaining unvaxxed that survived are now somewhat immune having caught it over the last few months.

Good chance this was the last significant wave in Fl. but I expect waves in north somewhat reduced because of the higher vax rate in the over 60's and higher degree of prior infection in some places like NY, MA, NJ...

As for Flu, there's a study out that indicates people have less severe Covid if they have had a flu shot in the prior 6 months. Something like 30% reduction.

Fwiw, median age by state:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age

Florida is 42, but isn't actually the oldest state. That would be Maine, at 45. California is 37. US median is 38. Utah is youngest at 31 (not counting some territories other than states). The New England region as a whole seems to be rather older than the US median.

 

[Puppycow]

This is the best place. You can select flu seasons by year. Check out 2019-20 v 2018-19 as well as the current year. The Y axis for the current year is about 2 orders of magnitude lower.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/flu_by_age_virus.html

I see we've started a new year. Looking at past years pre-2020, infections are typically still low at this time of year but begin to ramp up in October and November.

 

[marting]

I see we've started a new year. Looking at past years pre-2020, infections are typically still low at this time of year but begin to ramp up in October and November.

Yep. Still historically low. Curious how it will track years prior to 2020. Likely will be larger than last year but whether it's above or below the long term averages is pretty unknown.

It's going to be a balance between a decrease in flu mmunity from nearly no flu since 2019 and the suppressive impact of relatively few remaining NPIs. Could easily be either.

I'm just going to wait until the start of a clear ramp as I want the flu vaccine to be kicking in maxx near the future peak.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

Big data

Link

This 2018 article suggests that predictions about the severity of the flu season are not easy to make, especially when they are about the future.

"Seasonal intensity, longevity, peak date and severity predictions are even more difficult to forecast. An alternative approach using ‘Big Data’ to estimate influenza activity earlier/better was developed by Google with a proprietary algorithm known as ‘Google Flu Trends’.3 However, over subsequent years, it became evident that the predictive capacity of this model was limited4 and that use of web-user information alone was insufficient and would have been better combined with traditional surveillance information.5 In general, mathematical models based on known transmission dynamics have been somewhat hamstrung by a lack of understanding of the drivers of seasonality, and these have generally performed better when fitted to past data but less well prospectively.6"

 

[Oystein]

I live in Florida. I wear a mask when I leave my house....

Why?

Presumably, when you leave your house, you step out into the outdoors. There is essentially little good reason to wear a mask when you are outdoors (and not stuck in a tightly packed crowd).

Put it on when you go indoors, with people not in your household present. Wear it in the office, wear it in public transport, wear it when you go shopping.

A few days ago, I found this (pay-walled) article in the NYT, describing the author's observations about mask-wearing in Germany, where there is widespread consent about it: Put it on when inside with strangers, take it off when you go outside or are in a private space. Simple. Works.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/opinion/covid-germany-masks-vaccines.html
Germany has consistently seen lower Covid infection rates than any US state for a very long time (in winter, for a few weeks, the worst wave here made us exceed US average). Right now, 760 new cases/million/week. Only Hawai'i is slightly better at 680. Also, just 5 new deaths/million/week - only DC had better numbers.

I expect this simple regime also works wonders against the spread of the flu.

 

[angrysoba]

Why?

Presumably, when you leave your house, you step out into the outdoors. There is essentially little good reason to wear a mask when you are outdoors (and not stuck in a tightly packed crowd).

Put it on when you go indoors, with people not in your household present. Wear it in the office, wear it in public transport, wear it when you go shopping.

A few days ago, I found this (pay-walled) article in the NYT, describing the author's observations about mask-wearing in Germany, where there is widespread consent about it: Put it on when inside with strangers, take it off when you go outside or are in a private space. Simple. Works.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/opinion/covid-germany-masks-vaccines.html
Germany has consistently seen lower Covid infection rates than any US state for a very long time (in winter, for a few weeks, the worst wave here made us exceed US average). Right now, 760 new cases/million/week. Only Hawai'i is slightly better at 680. Also, just 5 new deaths/million/week - only DC had better numbers.

I'm more than happy for people to wear them when they leave the house and take them off when they get home again. As mentioned in another thread, that is what the majority of people will do in Japan. Taking it off and putting it your pocket just seems dirty to me now.

It might not be completely rational but I think erring on the side of caution is better than the whole "**** this ****, the pandemic's over!" behaviour in the UK.

I expect this simple regime also works wonders against the spread of the flu.

Yes, almost certainly. One of the reasons I was fine wearing a mask from the beginning of this and wanted others to do so too was because research on mask wearing that predated Covid was done on the flu. I thought there was no reason not to wear a mask given that.

 

[ZirconBlue]

This 2018 article suggests that predictions about the severity of the flu season are not easy to make, especially when they are about the future.

Yes, predictions about the past are much easier.

 

[Oystein]

... Taking [the mask] off and putting it your pocket just seems dirty to me now. ...

I feel the other way round: Making the mask filter constantly makes it dirty; you keep it moist, especially in cooler weather, much to the delight of some microbes,
I'd rather exhale and spit out the fluids in my nose and mouth into the open air than collect them all day and keep them on my face.
In my pocket, at worst, the mask gets a little dusty on the outside with cotton fibers.

 

[Puppycow]

From the Asahi Shimbun:

Almost no cases of flu yet, but big outbreak still possible

Although a winter outbreak of influenza has not materialized, experts caution that one could still occur--with huge ramifications for health care workers bracing for sixth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Health ministry officials, citing reports from 5,000 or so medical institutions across Japan that regularly provide updates on the spread of influenza, reported only 10 cases of flu during a week through Oct. 17.

The count at this time last year was 17, compared with 4,447 two years ago.

Sounds to me like a big outbreak is unlikely this year. But "experts" are warning of one nonetheless.

There were more than 400 times as many infections at this time 2 years ago.

Health authorities in Britain are predicting as much as a 50-percent rise in influenza cases this winter compared with a normal year and urging people to get vaccinated.

So they are predicting an above-average flu season in Britain. Although, the current levels seem to remain low.

Is it possible that somehow Covid can "displace" the flu? I understand that the NPIs taken against Covid would also be effective against the flu, but somehow they tend to be less effective against Sars-CoV-2. Is there some kind of displacement effect, where one respiratory virus crowds out another?

 

[marting]

From the Asahi Shimbun:

Almost no cases of flu yet, but big outbreak still possible


Sounds to me like a big outbreak is unlikely this year. But "experts" are warning of one nonetheless.

There were more than 400 times as many infections at this time 2 years ago.



So they are predicting an above-average flu season in Britain. Although, the current levels seem to remain low.

Is it possible that somehow Covid can "displace" the flu? I understand that the NPIs taken against Covid would also be effective against the flu, but somehow they tend to be less effective against Sars-CoV-2. Is there some kind of displacement effect, where one respiratory virus crowds out another?

R0 for Covid is much higher than the Flu. And no indication of Flu increases so far. If we do have a significant Flu season it will probably be delayed into Jan/March. I think it's pretty likely that there will be no flu 21/22 as i expect pockets of Covid to occur this winter. People will naturally impliment some NPIs and it takes very little to supress Flu compared to Covid. I also expect that any Covid waves this winter will be small compared to Delta. We're near the end of the big Covid. Will still be small waves but nothing like we have seen as it goes endemic.

 

[angrysoba]

R0 for Covid is much higher than the Flu. And no indication of Flu increases so far. If we do have a significant Flu season it will probably be delayed into Jan/March. I think it's pretty likely that there will be no flu 21/22 as i expect pockets of Covid to occur this winter. People will naturally impliment some NPIs and it takes very little to supress Flu compared to Covid. I also expect that any Covid waves this winter will be small compared to Delta. We're near the end of the big Covid. Will still be small waves but nothing like we have seen as it goes endemic.

I think it all depends on the country we are talking about. If it’s Japan where the Asahi article is describing then yeah, I would expect flu to be suppressed due to the very mitigation strategies in place to reduce Covid.

If it is the UK? Well, I don’t think any mitigation strategies are really in force so I expect flu to be more or less as usual.

 

[arthwollipot]

I'm expecting a nasty flu season next year. It won't hit us badly until about April/May, which is going to be long enough after lockdowns and precautions have been lifted that most people will have forgotten what it was like. I'll definitely be getting my shot as soon as it is available.

 

[mgidm86]

I feel the other way round: Making the mask filter constantly makes it dirty; you keep it moist, especially in cooler weather, much to the delight of some microbes,
I'd rather exhale and spit out the fluids in my nose and mouth into the open air than collect them all day and keep them on my face.In my pocket, at worst, the mask gets a little dusty on the outside with cotton fibers.

Wouldn't we all. I'd rather they were stuck in your mask than floating towards me right now though.

Try changing your mask. Most masks don't filter much air, they just catch droplets.Most masks I see aren't filtering out Covid that's for sure.