The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part II

[Andy_Ross]

If you were such an expert in the Baltic States as you claim you would know Paldiski was a massive Russian military base complete with nuclear power stations. When they were made to get out after 1991 it all had to be decommissioned; there was a huge amount of arms smuggling and also, highly dangerous contaminants, such as nuclear reactor rods, fell into the 'wrong' hands (a civilised version of the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan recently, if you like). A lot of this stuff found its way to the west. Russian military didn't even know where their next pay packet was coming from. So it is actually quite probable there was all kinds of stuff being carried on the passenger ferries. When the Swedish government does it, too, it is not all right.

What type of 'nuclear waste' would 'dissolve' the bow visor and make it fall off?

Do you know what 'nuclear waste' actually is?

Do you think that the Estonia was being used to transport nuclear fuel rods?

How would they 'dissolve' the bow visor?

 

[MarkCorrigan]

If you were such an expert in the Baltic States as you claim you would know Paldiski was a massive Russian military base complete with nuclear power stations. When they were made to get out after 1991 it all had to be decommissioned; there was a huge amount of arms smuggling and also, highly dangerous contaminants, such as nuclear reactor rods, fell into the 'wrong' hands (a civilised version of the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan recently, if you like). A lot of this stuff found its way to the west. Russian military didn't even know where their next pay packet was coming from. So it is actually quite probable there was all kinds of stuff being carried on the passenger ferries. When the Swedish government does it, too, it is not all right.

Are you high? At no point in my post did I say anything about Paldiski. I made two very specific points, neither of which was about Paldiski.

Captain_Swoop asked what happened in Paldiski.

I asked how nuclear waste could destroy the ships bow and if you know what nuclear waste is.

 

[LondonJohn]

I hate to think what is hidden under your carpet.

What the hell does that mean?

Why should they be 'escorted to shore and arrested'? Did you not know that the Act enforcing the Treaty has been amended to 2024 allow for for investigation?

Yes, I do know that. But that applies to official investigations only. Not to this one.

If you were one of the 852 persons who had no means of escape and died a horrible death in great stress and fear wouldn't you want your loved ones to know what happened on your behalf, together with the other eight hundred or so including little children and young adults, and to allow them to 'bring you home' as it were and give you a decent burial?

Firstly: quit with these ridiculous and irrelevant (in terms of investigating the causes etc) appeals to emotion. You've been told about this many times now in this thread. It makes your posts seem foolish and motivated by something other than a dispassionate search for the correct answer - seeing as you've clearly already convinced yourself that the current answer somehow isn't good enough for you.

And secondly, the families and friends of those who died, and the survivors, and anyone else connected to this disaster, already know what happened: the poorly-designed and poorly-maintained bottom lock of the bow visor failed, as a consequence of cumulative and immediate stresses and long-run metal fatigue; which then eventually caused the other connections on the bow visor to fail in turn; which then caused the bow visor to rip itself completely free from the ship; which then caused deformation to the bow ramp; which then allowed huge masses of seawater to flood the vehicle deck' which then caused the ship to founder and sink.

You do know, don't you, that all of this can be proven - and has been proven - by people with a proper understanding of the relevant science? As opposed to people with..... well, you know.....

Why would these four or five lower rank surviving crew need to be interviewed six or seven times over several years before they get their stories straight. Clearly, the Sapo and Supo were deeply suspicious as they had Sillaste in handcuffs, as witnessed by Linde (a drug smuggler who likely had been at it for years before being caught and probably used his job in order to do so) and an Interpol arrest warrant out for Arvo Piht, who was initially believed to have survived. The captain of the Concordia was arrested and charged. Imagine if Boris Johnson immediately after your imaginary demise announced they 'no-one is to blame' and wanted to bury you in concrete. You'd be demanding to know what he wants to cover up exactly.

And what is this word salad meant to mean, or to prove?

You're aware, right, that there was an official investigation into this disaster? And that the evidence it found (and didn't find) was wholly - and exclusively - consistent with the sinking having been caused by the total failure of the bow vehicle-loading mechanisms/parts?

 

[LondonJohn]

If you were such an expert in the Baltic States as you claim you would know Paldiski was a massive Russian military base complete with nuclear power stations. When they were made to get out after 1991 it all had to be decommissioned; there was a huge amount of arms smuggling and also, highly dangerous contaminants, such as nuclear reactor rods, fell into the 'wrong' hands (a civilised version of the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan recently, if you like). A lot of this stuff found its way to the west. Russian military didn't even know where their next pay packet was coming from. So it is actually quite probable there was all kinds of stuff being carried on the passenger ferries. When the Swedish government does it, too, it is not all right.

Be that as it may, it demonstrably had nothing whatsoever to do with the cause of the Estonia sinking.

 

[LondonJohn]

Given you claim to be a great expert in engineering and metallurgy, please explain how you know for a fact that it has been established that it was 'a few strong waves' that caused the contraption to fall off and not something else?

<fx gets into listening pose>


Or is it just an untested (and unproven) hypothesis?

1) Do you not see the amusing irony in you accusing someone else's post of promoting "an untested and unproven hypothesis"?

2) In any case, that's not what was happening here.

3) "Gets into listening pose" is not an "fx" in scriptwriting terminology. I can only assume you know little or nothing about scriptwriting (as well....).

 

[LondonJohn]

For the 12th time.

It was not just a 'few strong waves'
It was fifteen years of 'strong waves'
You even admit that the visor and fastenings had been distorted so that big hammers had to be used to force the bolts in to place.

Maybe the fact that the bow visor is detached and a distance away from the hull is a clue.

Ah, but in bizarro world it was just "a few strong waves".

Just as, in this world, "Mr Skylight" referred solely and exclusively to a fire alarm......

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Ah, but in bizarro world it was just "a few strong waves".

Just as, in this world, "Mr Skylight" referred solely and exclusively to a fire alarm......

Has anyone except Vixen said "a few strong waves" did the damage?

She keeps using the phrase and puts quotes around it. Is that quoting anyone other than Vixen?

 

[Vixen]

I haven't seen your sources. Only your claims.

I did google it myself, which is how I found the JAIC report, which does not support your claims. The JAIC, on which Admiral Iivonen sat as a commissioner, reports that Channel 16 was clear and in use during the period in question.

Where on Earth did you get the idea that it was being jammed by the Russians? Where on Earth did you get the idea that Admiral Iivonen claimed it was being jammed by the Russians?

An early article that appeared in Aftonbladet and as quoted by the reputable news agency Baltic News Service (BNS):

Russian soldiers silence "Ešt0fl! 3" call for help "Estonia" The call for help on the 16th international radio channel was silenced by a Russian military transmitter on the island of Hogland, the Swedish newspaper "Aftonbiadet" reported. The newspaper refers to Heimo Iivonen, a member of the International Commission of Inquiry, who said that a Russian military envoy based in Hoglandll had prevented him from attending the emergency call. Since September, a Russian radio transmitter has disrupted radio communications on the southern coast of Finland. Even on the night when "Estonia" sank, the transmitter was working and blocking the emergency call frequency. Therefore, it was difficult to understand the "Estonia" call for help. "The first call for help heard on" Silja Symphony "was partly buried in the Russian carrier frequency coming from Hogland. Later," Estonia "was connected to ..Silja Europa". It is unlikely that "Estonia" tried to sound the alarm in the past. The island of Hogland is a closed Russian military area. Therefore, the Finnish authorities cannot do anything directly to stop the jammer. and also in the Gulf of Finland.Radio stations on ships sailing in the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia are constantly tuned to VHF 16. To ensure that calls for help are received. "Iivonen has temporarily failed to intervene in order to take action on this issue." (BNS-,, Aftonbladet 1 ’

As I said before, a New Jersey American-Estonian who became an Estonian senator raised it in parliament several times saying he had demanded an explanation from the Russians, to no avail.

 

[LondonJohn]

Has anyone except Vixen said "a few strong waves" did the damage?

She keeps using the phrase and puts quotes around it. Is that quoting anyone other than Vixen?

No, to my knowledge nobody else has said it.

So it seems like this is a rather weird form of self-referencing. Will third-person self-referencing posts be far away...?

 

[LondonJohn]

An early article that appeared in Aftonbladet and as quoted by the reputable news agency Baltic News Service (BNS):




As I said before, a New Jersey American-Estonian who became an Estonian senator raised it in parliament several times saying he had demanded an explanation from the Russians, to no avail.

Errrrmmmm, you're doing that thing again of quoting a source which quotes a source which doesn't reference a primary source.

Have you ever done academic research before? Because the approach you're consistently employing in this thread would be laughed out of any academic institution (not to mention any proper investigative body).


ETA: Oh, and would I be correct in thinking that the quote you provided here might not even be a quote from BNS itself? That it might perhaps have been a quote from estoniaferrydisaster.net, which quotes BNS quoting Aftonbladet quoting no primary source(s)?

 

[Andy_Ross]

An early article that appeared in Aftonbladet and as quoted by the reputable news agency Baltic News Service (BNS):




As I said before, a New Jersey American-Estonian who became an Estonian senator raised it in parliament several times saying he had demanded an explanation from the Russians, to no avail.

What was the source that the " New Jersey American-Estonian who became an Estonian senator" got the story from?

If the Russians were jamming how did some radios work?

You do know how a radio works and how jamming works?

 

[Vixen]

What's special about an "Atlantic lock"? Why is it called that? I just went back and yes, in the earlier of the 10+ times you have mentioned it, you said was the big lock at the bottom, and that anecdotally the crew were used to having to hammer on it to get it closed. What access was there to it? With the car ramp raised and closed there would be no access to it from the car deck, presumably.

What part of it was allegedly recovered and discarded? Part from the hull or part from the visor?

Re the atlantic lock being modified in the past, a former boatswain, Luttonen, recalled how engineer Koivisto had modified it, removig key parts. JAIC reported that the lug eyes had been bent due to the waves and or the bow visor falling off, but in fact they had been that ellipse-shape for years, thanks to Koivisto's 'modifications'. So if the JAIC had made assumptions without testing those assumptions, why should we believe 'a few strong waves' knocked the bow visor off?

Juhanni Luttunen had been one of the two boatswains of the vessel from June 1980 to November 1992, while Christer Koivisto had been motorman and "ombudsman" at the same time.

Luttunen, who shot Koivisto on 12 June 1996, was interviewed in the prison of Vaasa by a member of this 'Group of Experts' and has stated the following:

His function as boatswain in connection with operating the visor/bow ramp was to stand at the control panel.
He explained the different handles and also the indicator lights. - He remembered clearly the 2 hooks and 4 bolts of the bow ramp as well as
the hydraulic side locks, the Atlantic lock, and also explained that they had never engaged the manual side locks.

At some time probably in 1982 it was realised that the visor was no more closing properly because it was in a misaligned condition athwartships. He thinks that the starboard corner was standing a bit up. It was for this reason that the Atlantic lock bolt could no more move through the visor lug. The matter was discussed with the engine crew and it was considered what could be done.

Engine repairman Koivisto considered himself to be the visor expert and offered to rectify the Atlantic lock to the effect that the bolt would fit again. Luttunen remembers that Koivisto was even called back from vacation to do the modification.

In the presence of Luttunen and motorman Göran Lindström Koivisto cut off the upper part of the lugs of the Atlantic lock and took off the bushings. Thereafter he welded extended parts on the lug remains and the holes in the lugs now looked like an ellipse, the bushings did not fit any more and were left out as still the bolt would not go smoothly through the visor lug, which was extending apparently too much aft or too much forward. In any event Koivisto cut something off the inside of the visor lug, whereby Luttunen is of the opinion that it was from the forward part.

After the repairs were completed they realised at once that it was impossible and decided to contact the inspector ashore. The poor modification was inspected and about one week later Swedish speaking people came from the company von Tell AB, cut off completely all 3 lugs of the Atlantic lock and welded new ones to the A-deck with bushings inserted.

He believes also that it was then realised that there was something wrong with the hydraulic, which was adjusted. The visor lug remained - as far as he remembers - unchanged, i.e. should still be the original.
When the repairs were completed the von Tell people expressly prohibited Koivisto or anybody else on board to ever manipulate the Atlantic lock again.
The complete interview is attached as Enclosure 3.3.83.

EFD

Yes, this is Meyer-Werft being defended by the 'German Expert Group' but it is a valid defence.

 

[whoanellie]

No, to my knowledge nobody else has said it.

So it seems like this is a rather weird form of self-referencing. Will third-person self-referencing posts be far away...?

'few wave impacts' is actually is in the JAIC report in section 13.2.5.

The first indication that something was wrong in the bow area was noted and reported to the bridge about five minutes before one o'clock by the AB seaman of the watch when he, at the forward ramp on his routine watch round, noted a sharp metallic bang from the bow area. This coincided with a heavy upward acceleration that nearly made him fall. He reported this bang to the bridge. Remaining about five minutes near the ramp he then continued on his round to decks 1 and 0 and finally to the bridge. He heard no more unusual sounds, nor made any unusual observations.

Shortly after one o'clock a few wave impacts on the visor caused the visor attachments to fail completely.

http://www.multi.fi/estonia/estorap.html#_Toc405839542

 

[Here_to_learn]

What was the source that the " New Jersey American-Estonian who became an Estonian senator" got the story from?

If the Russians were jamming how did some radios work?

You do know how a radio works and how jamming works?

To add on to that - VHF is basically line-of-sight communication. A quick look at a map shows that although a transmitter in Hogland may be picked up in Helsinki, it wouldn't be picked up at the Estonia site, or by for example the Utö transmitter used by Finnish MRCC. (MF frequencies are of course a different thing, but the discussion here seems to be related to VHF ch 16).

If one checks the current VHF coastal station map for the Baltics (as published by coastal radio station Stockholmradio), it's possible to get an idea on the range of VHF.

The table at the top show how much the range is extended if the receiver is at a certain height. So an antenna height of 30meter add 12 Nautical Miles to the range of a station.

Hence the traffic between Estonia and the other ferries were hardly jammed by the Russian station.

Also, to take note of - when Estonia starts to list - the efficiency of the VHF antenna decreases, since it's no longer transmitting parallel to the surface.

 

[JayUtah]

...please explain how you know for a fact that it has been established that it was 'a few strong waves'...

I never claimed I know that for a fact, nor has anyone claimed that it was "a few strong waves" except to note the precipitating event. I'm pointing out that it's a hypothesis you have no problem rejecting, all the while claiming you rule nothing out. You've clearly pre-rejected the conventional narrative and are considering only hypotheses that aren't that, no matter how contradictory or patently absurd they may be. It's an obvious double standard, which casts severe doubt on your claim to be fair-minded.

Let's see if you can go a whole day now without a straw-man argument.

 

[JayUtah]

Yes, this is Meyer-Werft being defended by the 'German Expert Group' but it is a valid defence.

How would you know? At least we've finally got you to concede it is a defense and not a dispassionate search for truth.

 

[Vixen]

1) Do you not see the amusing irony in you accusing someone else's post of promoting "an untested and unproven hypothesis"?

2) In any case, that's not what was happening here.

3) "Gets into listening pose" is not an "fx" in scriptwriting terminology. I can only assume you know little or nothing about scriptwriting (as well....).

Of course it is.

 

[JayUtah]

If you were such an expert in the Baltic States as you claim you would know Paldiski...

He didn't ask you about Paldiski. You brought it up as a distraction instead of answering the real question, which was how "nuclear waste" could dissolve any portion of the ship.

...highly dangerous contaminants, such as nuclear reactor rods, fell into the 'wrong' hands...

You were asked how such materials could "dissolve" the ship's bow. Please elaborate, and include as much detail as you can. Please answer that question and only that question.

 

[Vixen]

Has anyone except Vixen said "a few strong waves" did the damage?

She keeps using the phrase and puts quotes around it. Is that quoting anyone other than Vixen?

It is the conclusion of the JOINT ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION COMMITTEE.

 

[JayUtah]

Of course it is.

And how many effects-laden films have you written or acted in?