Pandemic Panic Must Stop

[smartcooky]

The quote from National Geographic was misleading. The very first sentence was this:

Now the CDC estimates that people infected with Delta pass the virus to between five and 9.5 people.

That's never been the case.

While the rest of the NG quote discusses evolution of R0 it fails to note that these are reproduction ratios on a completely susceptible population with no NPIs and the first sentence doesn't mention these. Thus the quote, standing alone, is false. Such a situation exists exactly nowhere since Delta arrived and at no time did such a repro rate occur because of NPIs and prior reductions from infection. I would hope National Geographic provided context that would have explained that but it's paywalled.

Agree that over a long term, protection from prior infection (or vaccination) is unknown but is currently significant but not perfect.

Still . missing . the . point!

 

[The Don]

Except for kids, it's not: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...escents-is-less-common-than-previously-feared

Less common than feared <> doesn't happen and the report itself is specific that the risk is unknown:

“We don’t in fact have an accurate determination of the risk of long Covid, but it’s likely to be considerably less than many … headlines have been suggesting.”

IMO it's reasonable to consider illness both long and short term when assessing the response to the Covid risk - not just deaths.

Should have had the vaccine.

In the UK the vaccine is estimated to be 65% effective at preventing infection from the Delta variant. Being vaccinated helps immensely but doesn't prevent you from being infected.

Do you seriously think shutting schools forever is an option? Covid is now an endemic disease that everyone is going to catch at some stage.

Get vaccinated, reduce your chances of dying, get on with life.

I'm not suggesting shutting schools forever, but IMO there has to be some middle ground between that and what the UK government has done which is to open schools with absolutely no precautions in place. Why not insist that children wear masks ? Why not ensure that classrooms are adequately ventilated (and heated) ? Why not instil a culture of good basic hygiene ? Why not encourage sick children to stay at home ?

Perfect example of panic.

Covid isn't going to become ebola. It has one means of attacking humans, and vaccines protect against all variants. We've been through the "OMFG alpha/beta/delta/mu might escape the vaccine!!11!!"

They don't.

Except that increasingly they do.

But seriously, what do you propose doing?

As I see it, there are only two alternatives:

1 - have as many people as possible vaccinated and carry on*
2 - stay locked up forever

If there's a third option, let me know.

*UK is on this path and Covid is out of control! infection numbers and deaths are dropping.

The third option is to change the way that we in the West respond when we get sick and to make modifications to the way that we behave generally. Examples include, but are not limited to:

• Get vaccinated and get boosters if they're offered. Despite it being free, many eligible people in the UK do not get their annual 'flu vaccine in part because the vaccine is effective enough that people don't see the need
• Maintaining good hygiene standards. Continue to regularly wash/sanitise your hands, try not to touch your face and be wary of surfaces which could act as transmission vectors
• If you're not feeling well, don't struggle into work, don't force yourself to go on that night out, stay at home until you're better
• If you have to do out when you're not feeling well then wear a mask to avoid passing on whatever ails you to those around you
• Limit unnecessary physical contact with strangers. I know it feels odd not to shake someone's hand when you're introduced, but there really is no need - and don't even get me started on huggers
• If there's an outbreak locally, modify your behaviour until it dies down. Avoid going out unnecessarily. You don't need to sit in a crowded pub for hours

 

[smartcooky]

I'm not suggesting shutting schools forever

In fact, not one single person here in this thread, or on this forum, is suggesting the idea that schools should be shut forever. In fact, there do not even appear to be any politicians, doctors or virologists, nor are any spokespeople for the CDC or the WHO advocating permanent school closures.

I know of only one person who has even been talking about it... and they are panicking over it?

 

[Suddenly]

Denmark looks to have set the benchmark, and I think they've got it dead right - get vaccinations to the point where everyone who wants one has had it, then ignore the disease and get back to normality.

You can do these sorts of things when there is a healthcare system not on the verge of collapse, and have a stable welfare state that will ensure those who do do suffer long term issues will not get economically destroyed. Plus the political sanity to be able to make changes in the future if things look to be getting out of control.

It isn't so much that Denmark has the right attitude about covid as much as Denmark his a decent country that has it together in a way to where they can handle this sort of crisis in a sane way.

 

[JoeMorgue]

It isn't so much that Denmark has the right attitude about covid as much as Denmark his a decent country that has it together in a way to where they can handle this sort of crisis in a sane way.

And this honestly, more than anything, was the big policy failure in the United States regarding COVID.

"Well everything will be okay provided a massive demographic chunk of America doesn't decide en masse to be a bunch of self-destructive douchebags for no reason" cannot be the plan in America because they will always do exactly that.

I get that when the **** start there was no actual adults in the room to make that decision, but the assumption at the beginning should have been "A lot of people are literally going to try to make this worse on purpose."

As Jason Pargis put it: (Bolding Mine)

"By far the most common denial of science I see on here isn't about vaccines or masks, it's the total refusal to see human behavior as a real, measurable thing that we have to plan for. That a certain % of humans react badly to government mandates shouldn't have surprised anyone.

"I can't believe these people are risking spreading COVID just to get drunk at a party!" Oh, so you've never met a human being before? You haven't noticed how brains calculate long-term risk vs short-term pleasure (or fail to?). It's literally humanity's most defining trait!

This isn't an anti-lockdown thread, I get the reasoning and for the most part people locked down themselves regardless (ie stopped going to movies regardless of whether or not they were open). But those rules should have come with the assumption they'd be widely broken."

 

[The Atheist]

IMO it's reasonable to consider illness both long and short term when assessing the response to the Covid risk - not just deaths.

Sure, but we need to balance the risk.

In the UK the vaccine is estimated to be 65% effective at preventing infection from the Delta variant. Being vaccinated helps immensely but doesn't prevent you from being infected.

Again correct, but as long as being vaccinated stops you from needing a hospital bed, it really doesn't matter. And that appears to be holding up well.

I'm not suggesting shutting schools forever, but IMO there has to be some middle ground between that and what the UK government has done which is to open schools with absolutely no precautions in place. Why not insist that children wear masks ?

Ok, so older kids wear masks. That's the case here and it seems to be working ok.

But how are you going to get on with 5-year-olds? I've worked a lot with kids aged 4-8 and I don't see any way it's going to work. (I'm not even going to mention toddlers and babies)

Smaller kids will pass the disease around each other, then to their parents and siblings. All mask wearing will do is slow the spread a little, and for what point?

Why not ensure that classrooms are adequately ventilated (and heated) ?

Be a little realistic. How long would it take to replace and upgrade the enormous number of HVAC systems in schools, and who's going to pay for it?

Why not instil a culture of good basic hygiene ? Why not encourage sick children to stay at home ?

That's highly amusing.

We encourage that, and it does not happen.

I'd be first to applaud measures to get kids washing their hands and using basic hygiene measures. All of my children were thought of as slightly weird at primary school because they washed their hands before eating.

I suggest you visit a public toilet once and talk to me about people and hygiene.

Long before the pandemic, schools have been imploring parents on at least a monthly basis to keep sick children home.

Yet, every day, teachers are confronted in the mornings by sick kids turning up. It costs time and money to deal with and parents aren't going to change their behaviour.

Except that increasingly they do.

Please show evidence of different variants escaping vaccines at higher rates. Vaccine protection wanes, but the escape has not been displayed to be higher for one than another.

I've seen lots of panicked headlines "OMG Variant Xi* May Escape Vaccines!".

But they haven't.

Imagine a guy attacking you with spears while you're sitting inside a tank. He gets more and more spears, but he'll never get through and it is his sole means of attack. Covid is the guy with spears, and vaccines are your tank. More of the same isn't going to matter, but that doesn't sell as well as the OMG! headlines.

*Please, please, please use that!

The third option is to change the way that we in the West respond when we get sick and to make modifications to the way that we behave generally. Examples include, but are not limited to:

I agree with everything you said there, but I'm certain the chances of it happening are zero.

In fact, not one single person here in this thread, or on this forum, is suggesting the idea that schools should be shut forever.

How long do they stay shut for, then?

And I seem to recall one particular poster advocating how excellent homeschooling is.

I can't recall who it was, but it'll come to me...

 

[JoeMorgue]

Well at least when you die to defend this hill we can argue it's not statistically significant.

 

[The Atheist]

I was trying to work out a metric for measuring societal panic and came up with sole occupants of cars wearing a mask while driving.

It's utterly illogical, yet a majority of drivers I see are wearing one, so we decided to do an actual count.

And not just in Auckland, where there are actual Covid cases, people are doing the same thing in Wellington, where there have been zero community cases for over three weeks, and Christchurch, where the last Covid case was 18 months ago.

Between myself and some friends in Wellington & Christchurch, we're seeing over 50% of drivers wearing a mask while driving their car as sole occupant. (65% Auck, 60% Wgtn and 52% Chch)

Totally not panicking.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Who the **** cares? Who are they hurting?

 

[smartcooky]

Well at least when you die to defend this hill we can argue it's not statistically significant.

Who the **** cares? Who are they hurting?

 

[lionking]

Who the **** cares? Who are they hurting?

Exactly. Normalising mask wearing is hardly the crime of the century.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I'd rather the entire 405 freeway from San Diego to Los Angeles was filled bumper to bumper with cars filled with people wearing masks, lifejackets, climbing harnesses, condoms, mouth guards, safety googles, hard hats, and steel toed boots then one person dying from COVID that didn't have to.

 

[Myriad]

I was trying to work out a metric for measuring societal panic and came up with sole occupants of cars wearing a mask while driving.

It's utterly illogical, yet a majority of drivers I see are wearing one, so we decided to do an actual count.

And not just in Auckland, where there are actual Covid cases, people are doing the same thing in Wellington, where there have been zero community cases for over three weeks, and Christchurch, where the last Covid case was 18 months ago.

Between myself and some friends in Wellington & Christchurch, we're seeing over 50% of drivers wearing a mask while driving their car as sole occupant. (65% Auck, 60% Wgtn and 52% Chch)

Totally not panicking.

I wore a mask alone in my car most of the time during the early U.S. surges in 2020, especially when going from one mask-required location to another. I didn't remove the mask for the same reason I wouldn't take off a jacket or my shoes in the car even though it has a good climate control system and shoes aren't needed for driving. Why bother? Minimizing handling of the mask is also helpful for its function.

You speak as though you find every moment wearing a mask to be so excruciating that only "panic" can explain why a person would ever leave one on a moment longer than was strictly necessary. Try thinking shoes instead of hair shirts when contemplating other people's habits of mask usage.

 

[JoeMorgue]

When seen this on the board before, a pro-disease posters going into hyper vigilant mode to find someone, anyone over-masking or wearing their mask .000001 nanoseconds longer than necessary or standing 8 feet away instead of 6 or whatever as if it proves something, as if caution or safety jump straight from "Do the absolute bare minimum" to "panic."

Like I said before. "My ethics are based around actually caring about other people and boy let me tell you I was not prepared for the number of people that would completely piss off."

 

[smartcooky]

I wore a mask alone in my car most of the time during the early U.S. surges in 2020, especially when going from one mask-required location to another. I didn't remove the mask for the same reason I wouldn't take off a jacket or my shoes in the car even though it has a good climate control system and shoes aren't needed for driving. Why bother? Minimizing handling of the mask is also helpful for its function.

You speak as though you find every moment wearing a mask to be so excruciating that only "panic" can explain why a person would ever leave one on a moment longer than was strictly necessary. Try thinking shoes instead of hair shirts when contemplating other people's habits of mask usage.

I don't usually wear the mask in the car, but I have done on occasion when I have been travelling a short distance to pick up one of my daughters or grandchildren to take them somewhere. Much easier to just put it on before I leave than all that fossicking around for it in the car. I keep a spare mask in the glove box.

I also work part time at my old business (gave it to my my daughters when I retired), filling in for any staff off sick or on holiday. That requires wearing a mask in the shop. I often forget I'm even wearing it and drive home with it still on.

 

[The Atheist]

Who the **** cares? Who are they hurting?

Nobody, but when you're living somewhere that hasn't had a case of Covid in about 500 days, it's pretty funny.

 

[The Atheist]

Still no answer as to how long schools should stay shut...

 

[JoeMorgue]

Still no answer as to how long schools should stay shut...

*The schoolhouse is still on fire*

The Atheist (Smugly, certain he's caught people in a gotcha): "Still no answer on how long the school should stay shut."

Dude I get it. You're a contrarian so the more people who disagree with you the more sure you are in your head that you are correct but drop it. It's just embarrassing now.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Nobody, but when you're living somewhere that hasn't had a case of Covid in about 500 days, it's pretty funny.

Wait I thought the big crisis was that people were panicking? Now it's just "pretty funny."

Again you don't have an actual point, you just want to have a problem.

 

[The Atheist]

The Atheist (Smugly, certain he's caught people in a gotcha):

Nope.

I'm surprised at your inability to read and answer the simplest question.

Dude I get it.

Nope.

What you think you're "getting" is a fantasy from inside your own head.

You're a contrarian so the more people who disagree with you the more sure you are in your head that you are correct but drop it.

Wrong again.

I have a fairly extensive posting history here, both in general, and Covid in particular. I am in no way "contrarian" and I'm quite happy to let written history speak for me.

As to correctness, you're more than welcome to show anywhere in this thread - or in any of the other Covid threads - that I've been wrong. I've corrected a few others, but I don't see any mistakes I've made, with the possible exception of trying to engage with people incapable of understanding written words or setting out an actual argument.

It's just embarrassing now.

You're right to be embarrassed, you haven't written a single substantive post in the thread yet.