Pandemic Panic Must Stop

[Horhang]

How things are going for me in southern CA: I teach 8th grade science and we have been full in person in school for 8 1/2 weeks. Masks required when indoors for both students and teachers, but not social distancing. Initially teachers indoors with only other teachers if all vaccinated could be unmasked, that has been rescinded and masks now required.
The first 3-4 weeks we had cases of students testing positive and isolations. I would get the public notice of a student has tested positive and is in isolation unless it was one of my students. If it was one of my students I would be provided the name and then have to provide the names of students who would have been In close contact, 2 meters for 15 minutes or more. Since the first 4 weeks we have had no cases, and those cases in the first 4 weeks appear to have been infected outside school.
My son is in the High School we feed to as a middle school, so same population. I get almost weekly emails about a case found on campus and the person in isolation. They have the same protocols on campus as we do; same school district.
Schools do not seem to be a source of spread if done right, masks indoors and good ventilation. We are currently taxing our havoc system s because doors must remain open during class, so air conditioning is running all day and marginally cooling the room as the air flow takes the cool air out the door. Small sacrifices. No panic.

 

[Orphia Nay]

It seems nations like the UK, the USA, and Australia have COVID plans that have stopped panicking and are "letting people live with the virus" as vaccination levels rise.

Meanwhile they're leaving it to the states and counties to worry about whether lockdowns and strict restrictions are required.

On a macro level the panic is over, and as the virus becomes more endemic, micro-restrictions are also becoming less necessary.

At some point the decision will lie with the family then the individual.

I'd like to hear how our leaders and chief health officers phrase it.

 

[The Atheist]

Denmark looks to have set the benchmark, and I think they've got it dead right - get vaccinations to the point where everyone who wants one has had it, then ignore the disease and get back to normality.

 

[Samson]

Denmark looks to have set the benchmark, and I think they've got it dead right - get vaccinations to the point where everyone who wants one has had it, then ignore the disease and get back to normality.

I think NZ can do an outliery type thing.
I havent moved offshore since 90s and no desire.
Let us do as the ants.

 

[JoeMorgue]

1 in every 500 Americans has died of the Covid-19 virus since the first reported case in America.

663,913 US deaths, as of Tuesday night.

5.7 billion dollars in the last 3 months alone treating unvaccinated people.

 

[smartcooky]

I'll just leave this here for those who don't think children with covid-19 is a big issue.



Transcript here for the YouTube averse...

For the first 15 months of the pandemic here in the state of Florida, only six children died. Since July 30th of this year, from July 30th through the first week of September, 17 children have died from COVID-19 here in the state of Florida. And of course, across the country, child cases of COVID-19 are going through the roof, and that's not a coincidence, folks. That coincides with schools restarting across the country.

One of the reasons Florida's a little ahead right now in the number of kids dying from COVID is because our schools start back earlier than other schools. We're actually in week five down here in Florida, as some folks are still posting first day pictures of their kids on Facebook. That's why our numbers are higher. But don't worry. Those other states are unfortunately going to start catching up with us because every one of these child cases, every one of these child deaths at this point was largely preventable.

If we had put safeguards in place, if we had left distance learning in place, the chances of most of these kids still being alive are insanely high. And sure, I know that the anti maskers are gonna point to the fact that a lot of the kids here in Florida that have died, the 17 since July 30th, a lot of them had underlying conditions. Not all of them, by the way, had underlying conditions, but most of them did. Sure, sure, sure. But how would you feel if that was your kid who had severe asthma and wasn't able to fight off COVID because their lungs were already weakened? Or what if it was your kid that had a compromised immune system that made them more susceptible to COVID-19? Okay. We're not talking about kids that have been smoking for 40 years and their lungs couldn't handle it. We're talking about children who were born with these compromised immune systems or born with these underlying conditions that helped them die from COVID, I guess we could say. But had COVID not come along, these children would not be dead today. And that's the big takeaway here.

But here in Florida, Ron DeSantis just scored a victory actually in a district court up here where we are saying that his mask mandate can stay in place or ban on mask mandate, I should say. So we're sending kids to school. Allowing, as Ron DeSantis says, the parents to make the best decisions about what's good for their children.

Cool. But if your kid's not wearing a mask and another kid is that is still highly transmissible versus both children wearing a mask and that significantly reduces the chances of spreading the virus from one child to another or from a teacher to a child. It doesn't work if only a couple kids are doing it. So, no, you're not just making choices about the health of your child. You're making choices about the health of my children. You're making choices about everybody else's children when you send your kids to school without a mask. This isn't about your freedom of choice or your, you know, constitutional protections. This is about you making health choices based on misinformation for everybody else's kids who are going to suffer because of it. These child cases were preventable. These child deaths were preventable.

And here we are sending all the kids back to school, into these giant petri dishes and based on the data we've seen so far, we unfortunately know how this story is going to end.

 

[The Atheist]

Since July 30th of this year, from July 30th through the first week of September, 17 children have died from COVID-19 here in the state of Florida.

17

In a population of 3 million children.

A death rate of 0.0006%.

Perfect example of panicking over statistics. Thanks for that.

 

[The Don]

17

In a population of 3 million children.

A death rate of 0.0006%.

Perfect example of panicking over statistics. Thanks for that.

It's not just the deaths, it's also the long-term sickness that's an issue.

It's also not just the children, infected children bring Covid back home and infect adults who are more likely to get sick and die.

It's not just the sickness and deaths. A large, unvaccinated population mixing freely is the ideal environment for the evolution of new variants, increasing the likelihood of the emergence of one or more against which current vaccinations are ineffective or much less effective.

 

[smartcooky]

It's not just the deaths, it's also the long-term sickness that's an issue.

It's also not just the children, infected children bring Covid back home and infect adults who are more likely to get sick and die.

It's not just the sickness and deaths. A large, unvaccinated population mixing freely is the ideal environment for the evolution of new variants, increasing the likelihood of the emergence of one or more against which current vaccinations are ineffective or much less effective.

Yeah but that involves using some logical reasoning that allows one to think beyond their next knee-jerk post.

It is a fact that in the US, schools with no mask mandates are turning into mini-superspreaders; kid goes to school, gets infected, takes it home, spreads it to mum, dad and siblings. Kid and Siblings go back to so the same school in another class, or another school. With the Delta variant running at R₀ = 5½ - 9 in the USA, each child likely spreads it to 6 - 9 other kids and/or teachers, who take it home etc etc etc. and we know this is how it happens, because we see this cycle every year during flu season. Farron Cousins correctly describes schools as "petri dishes"

 

[lionking]

Yeah but that involves using some logical reasoning that allows one to think beyond their next knee-jerk post.

It is a fact that in the US, schools with no mask mandates are turning into mini-superspreaders; kid goes to school, gets infected, takes it home, spreads it to mum, dad and siblings. Kid and Siblings go back to so the same school in another class, or another school. With the Delta variant running at R₀ = 5½ - 9 in the USA, each child likely spreads it to 6 - 9 other kids and/or teachers, who take it home etc etc etc. and we know this is how it happens, because we see this cycle every year during flu season. Farron Cousins correctly describes schools as "petri dishes"

Wow. I don’t doubt you, but do you have a source?

We are trying hard to drive it below 1 in New South Wales and Victoria, and some states have it close to zero.

 

[smartcooky]

Wow. I don’t doubt you, but do you have a source?

We are trying hard to drive it below 1 in New South Wales and Victoria, and some states have it close to zero.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...vid-delta-variant-transmission-cdc-chickenpox

"For the delta variant, the R0 is now calculated at between six and seven," Wenseleers says. So it's two- to three-times as contagious as the original version of SARS-CoV-2 (R0 = 2 to 3) but less contagious than the chickenpox (R0 = 9 to 10)."​

https://www.rpbsafety.com/covid-19/delta-variant

What is driving this outbreak?

Compared to the original strain of COVID, the Delta variant is considerably more contagious. To measure this, epidemiologists use a reproductive number (R0) to indicate how many people that an infected person is likely to infect. The original strain of COVID had an R0 of 2.3 – 2.7, whereas the Delta variant has an R0 of 5.0 – 9.5. To put this into perspective, the 1918 influenza pandemic had an estimated R0 of between 2.0 – 3.0 and it infected over 30% of the global population and claimed the lives of up to 50 million people.​

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...ectious-and-deadly-new-research-holds-answers

Now the CDC estimates that people infected with Delta pass the virus to between five and 9.5 people. This is higher than the original virus identified in Wuhan, China, which had an R0 between 2.3 and 2.7, and the Alpha variant which had an R0 between four and five. Delta can be as infectious as chicken pox, which has an R0 between 9 and 10.​

The idea that there is "Pandemic Panic" going in is compete and utter bollocks. The reality is that it is not being taken seriously enough.

A disease with an R₀ of 9 left unchecked and with no vaccine, would have infected the whole population of New Zealand within 6 to 7 infection cycles of the disease... about a month, and with a death rate of around 1.8% would put about 85,000 Kiwis in an early grave.

 

[JoeMorgue]

The Atheist: "Stop panicking. Bear attacks kill less that two people a year on average in the US."

(Said to person currently being mauled by a bear)

 

[Jim_MDP]

The Atheist: "Stop panicking. Bear attacks kill less that two people a year on average in the US."

(Said to person currently being mauled by a bear)

Yeah, but the overwhelming chances are you'll come out with just some scars, a limp... maybe lose an eye and some fingers.
What the hell are you getting worked up about?


[emoji3525]

 

[smartcooky]

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/sep/15/fox-news-vaccines-testing-tucker-carlson

A Kaiser Family Foundation report that estimated that the cost of preventable hospitalizations for unvaccinated adults went from $0.6bn in June to $3.7bn in August, with a total $5bn spent on it across these three months alone.

During this time, the number of unvaccinated adults who were hospitalized primarily for Covid-19 treatment went up from 39,000 to 342,000, the report estimated.

An almost nine-fold increase in just three months.

Meh, nothing to see here folks, its only 0.1% of the population

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/15/...kEgn2NVUgGFTvtF0wypxWZTPR&bt_ts=1631702211105

The United States has reached another grim milestone in its fight against the devastating Covid-19 pandemic: 1 in 500 Americans have died from coronavirus since the nation's first reported infection.
As of Tuesday night, 663,913 people in the US have died of Covid-19, according to Johns Hopkins University data. According to the US Census Bureau, the US population as of April 2020 was 331.4 million.​

 

[marting]

Now the CDC estimates that people infected with Delta pass the virus to between five and 9.5 people. This is higher than the original virus identified in Wuhan, China, which had an R0 between 2.3 and 2.7, and the Alpha variant which had an R0 between four and five. Delta can be as infectious as chicken pox, which has an R0 between 9 and 10.​

This is misleading and would only be true if both no one had been previously infected/vaccinated and no one was masking, distancing or any using other NPIs.

What's important is R, which includes the effects of NPIs, vaccinations and prior infections. And that's rarely been over 2 since Delta came out. And it's been close to 2 even in a few highly vaccinated countries. When R is 1.0, the daily cases remains unchanged at whatever level it's at, low or high. When .9 cases will decrease about 15% a week, when at 1.1 cases will increase about 15% a week.

One problem with getting R below 1 is breakthrough case forward transmission. It's not clear that even if >90% of an entire population was vaccinated whether R would drop below 1 absent NPIs and NPIs won't go on forever. This is why most epidemiologists expect Covid to be endemic. People that are unvaccinated cannot just wait it out. They will eventually get covid and is why as many people as possible need to get vaccinated.

 

[The Atheist]

It's not just the deaths, it's also the long-term sickness that's an issue.

Except for kids, it's not: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...escents-is-less-common-than-previously-feared

It's also not just the children, infected children bring Covid back home and infect adults who are more likely to get sick and die.

Should have had the vaccine.

Do you seriously think shutting schools forever is an option? Covid is now an endemic disease that everyone is going to catch at some stage.

Get vaccinated, reduce your chances of dying, get on with life.

It's not just the sickness and deaths. A large, unvaccinated population mixing freely is the ideal environment for the evolution of new variants, increasing the likelihood of the emergence of one or more against which current vaccinations are ineffective or much less effective.

Perfect example of panic.

Covid isn't going to become ebola. It has one means of attacking humans, and vaccines protect against all variants. We've been through the "OMFG alpha/beta/delta/mu might escape the vaccine!!11!!"

They don't.

But seriously, what do you propose doing?

As I see it, there are only two alternatives:

1 - have as many people as possible vaccinated and carry on*
2 - stay locked up forever

If there's a third option, let me know.

*UK is on this path and Covid is out of control! infection numbers and deaths are dropping.

 

[The Atheist]

They will eventually get covid and is why as many people as possible need to get vaccinated.

As usual, right on the money.

 

[The Atheist]

The idea that there is "Pandemic Panic" going in is compete and utter bollocks. The reality is that it is not being taken seriously enough.

Says the guy panicking over false infection rates.

Nice work.

 

[smartcooky]

What's important is R, which includes the effects of NPIs, vaccinations and prior infections. And that's rarely been over 2 since Delta came out. And it's been close to 2 even in a few highly vaccinated countries. When R is 1.0, the daily cases remains unchanged at whatever level it's at, low or high. When .9 cases will decrease about 15% a week, when at 1.1 cases will increase about 15% a week.

One problem with getting R below 1 is breakthrough case forward transmission. It's not clear that even if >90% of an entire population was vaccinated whether R would drop below 1 absent NPIs and NPIs won't go on forever. This is why most epidemiologists expect Covid to be endemic. People that are unvaccinated cannot just wait it out. They will eventually get covid and is why as many people as possible need to get vaccinated.

Yeah, No! You didn't read AT ALL what I said...

If the R0 number is "misleading" why the **** are the CDC and the WHO publishing this information?

YES: I know that the R₀ number is variable depending on the the environment it is and the extent to which mitigation steps are employed. In this country, that to prompt and decisive action by out goverment and its advisors. But that is not what I was talking about.. what part of "A disease with an R₀ of 9 left unchecked and with no vaccine" escapes you?

This is misleading and would only be true if both no one had been previously infected/vaccinated and no one was masking, distancing or any using other NPIs.

Its worth noting that the jury is out on whether being infected and recovering gives you any long term protection against being reinfected, especially in the event that a new variant comes along which, thanks to all the self-centred morons who refuse to get vaccinated, is very likely to happen.

 

[marting]

Yeah, No! You didn't read AT ALL what I said...

If the R0 number is "misleading" why the **** are the CDC and the WHO publishing this information?

The quote from National Geographic was misleading. The very first sentence was this:

Now the CDC estimates that people infected with Delta pass the virus to between five and 9.5 people.

That's never been the case.

While the rest of the NG quote discusses evolution of R0 it fails to note that these are reproduction ratios on a completely susceptible population with no NPIs and the first sentence doesn't mention these. Thus the quote, standing alone, is false. Such a situation exists exactly nowhere since Delta arrived and at no time did such a repro rate occur because of NPIs and prior reductions from infection. I would hope National Geographic provided context that would have explained that but it's paywalled.

Agree that over a long term, protection from prior infection (or vaccination) is unknown but is currently significant but not perfect.