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Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

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Exactly the same thing happened in Britain, with the same justification. We're still paying for that.


What is the current Scottish situation?

The Swedish media seem to have discovered that the Public Health Agency's attitude to testing has been as inconsistent as Trump's and probably even more inept. SVT.se had an article with a timeline yesterday. On April 5, the Public Health Agency claimed it would soon be possible to do 100,000 tests a week, much too few in a country of 10.1 million, but they didn't test 100,000 a week until September.
 
That makes ugly reading.


And it is even worse, considering that the number of new cases is based on much too few tests. The percentage of positives is insane in some places, and in others they now want the testing capacity to be reserved for patients and hospital and care staff.
But there was no reason to worry about testing capacity in Sweden. They had herd immunity ...

I've noticed several places where Sweden was being held up as a good example by people who have all suddenly disappeared over the last few weeks.

Strange.


Well, it would have been strange if people had actually believed in the Swedish strategy and didn't have ulterior motives for claiming it as a good example. I think very few of them were honest.
 
What is the current Scottish situation?

The Swedish media seem to have discovered that the Public Health Agency's attitude to testing has been as inconsistent as Trump's and probably even more inept. SVT.se had an article with a timeline yesterday. On April 5, the Public Health Agency claimed it would soon be possible to do 100,000 tests a week, much too few in a country of 10.1 million, but they didn't test 100,000 a week until September.

Scotland is a lot better than England.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map
 
Swedish TV has some very good programs with investigative journalism. If anything can contribute to changing the Swedish consensus, they would be the ones to do it.

There are two recent documentaries about the Swedish pandemic strategy that I haven't watched yet:
I mars håller Folkhälsomyndigheten presskonferens varje dag. Samtidigt sprids det nya coronaviruset snabbt där utanför. Varför testade vi inte som våra grannländer när smittan tog sig in i samhället?
Den svenska strategin (Uppdrag granskning, Nov. 11, 2020)
In March, the Public Health Agency has press briefings every day. At the same time, the new coronavirus is spreading rapidly outside. Why didn't we test like our neighboring countries when the infection made its way into the community?
The Swedish strategy

När smittan kom till Sverige skulle de allra sköraste skyddas. Nu avslöjas vad som pågick bakom kulisserna - i ett avgörande skede av pandemin.
Spelet om munskydden (Uppdrag granskning, Oct. 28, 2020)
When the infection arrived in Sweden, the most vulnerable people were to be protected. Now we reveal what was going on behind the scenes - at a decisive stage of the pandemic.
The game of face masks

SVT.se usually has a couple of articles on the days when the the documentaries, Uppdrag granskning, are released. Yesterday was no exception.
I already mentioned this one:

16 mars • Världshälsoorganisationens generalsekreterare Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus ger budskapet “testa, testa, testa – testa varje misstänkt fall” till världens alla länder.
(…)
5 april • Folkhälsomyndigheten uppger att man inom några veckor vill kunna testa 100 000 personer i veckan.
(…)
20-26 april • Den uppskattade kapaciteten för laboratorieanalys av covid-19 passerar 100 000 tester i veckan. Endast 26 592 tester analyseras samma vecka.
4 maj • Socialminister Lena Hallengren (S) säger att Sverige ska testa 100 000 personer i veckan.
(…)
31 augusti-6 september • Antalet genomförda tester passerar för första gången 100 000 i veckan.
Tidslinje: Turerna kring Sveriges coronatestning (SVT.se, Nov. 11, 2020)
March 16 • Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Secretary General of the World Health Organization, delivers the message “test, test, test - test every suspected case” to all countries in the world.
(…)
April 5 • The Public Health Agency states that in a couple of weeks it will be possible to test 100,000 people a week.
(…)
April 20-26 • The estimated capacity for lab analysis of covid-19 passes 100,000 tests a week. Only 26,592 tests are analyzed that week.
May 4 • The minister of social affairs Lena Hallengren (Social Democrat) says that Sweden should test 100,000 a week.
(…)
Aug. 31-Sep. 6 • For the first time, the number of completed tests passes 100,000 a week..
Timeline of Sweden’s corona testing

The lack of testing contributed to the spread of the virus at nursing homes

Johan Hodell returned from a hotbed of infections (Ischgl, Austria!) just a few days after testing had stopped – ”Placed myself in quarantine”
 
From Radio Sweden – News in English (SverigesRadio.se):

In the spring, while Covid-19 testing was still limited, Sweden announced it would roll out a priority system for its coronavirus testing and test those working in "socially important functions" outside of the healthcare and care sectors.
But a review by Swedish Radio News found that the strategy failed to get off the ground after discussions about who should be on the list.
Instead, the strategy was scrapped in early June and Sweden's regions were told to start testing to anyone with symptoms. No systematic testing of people with socially important jobs was ever started.
Sweden aimed to test 'essential workers' but strategy never took off (SverigesRadio.se, Nov. 11, 2020)


Covid-19 is once again spreading rapidly in the care homes for the elderly. Over 400 people in care homes tested positive for Covid-19 last week, according to Swedish Radio News.
That is almost twice as many as the week before.
The virus is spreading widely in society, and the elderly care in Sweden is part of society... It is very very difficult to completely lock the virus out,"
Greger Bengtsson, senior advisor on elderly care for SKR, the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions.
The failure to keep the virus out of the homes for the elderly in the spring was described by the government as well as the Public Health Agency as the biggest failure of the Swedish Corona strategy and a reason why so many people have died here compared to neighbouring countries.
On Wednesday, Stockholm and Gothenburg municipalities re-introduced a visiting ban for homes for the elderly.
Covid-19 spreading in care homes again (SverigesRadio.se, Nov. 11, 2020)
 
Beslut om att ingen av de äldre skulle få sjukhusvård för covid-19 togs på två av tolv tillfrågade äldreboenden, visar ett PM från Stockholms stad där läkarinsatser utvärderats.
På flera äldreboenden dök ingen läkare upp på två månader under pandemins dittills värsta fas – och sjuksköterskor beskriver tunga beslut i ensamhet.
PM avslöjar: Beslut hindrade äldre på boenden att få sjukhusvård (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 11, 2020)
The decision that the elderly were not to be hospitalized for Covid-19 was made at two of twelve nursing homes being asked, according to a memorandum from the city of Stockholm appraising the deployment of doctors.
In several nursing homes, no doctors showed up for two months during the worst stage of the pandemic – and nurses describe the heavy decision they had to make on their own.
Memorandum reveals: Decision prevented elderly in nursing homes from getting hospitalized
 
Så sveper den andre coronavågen över Europa
Utforska själv: Så har situationen förändrats över de senaste tio veckorna
(SVT.se, Nov. 12, 2020)
How the second corona wave is sweeping over Europe
Explore it yourself: This is how the situation has changed in the ten most recent weeks

Pretty neat page of graphs, even for people without any knowledge of Swedish, and a few of you have probably learned the few words you need to know by now.
Unlike Tegnell, the authors of the page don't seem to find it in bad taste to use the word wave about Swedish situation. From the press briefing this afternoon:
Är vi i en andra våg nu.
- Ja, jag tycker inte den definitionsfrågan är så viktig, men vi har en samhällsspridning i många regioner samtidigt i dag. Det är delvis orsaken till att vi ser så höga siffror som vi ser. Många bor i områden med stor smittspridning nu, säger Tegnell.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, Nov. 12, 2020 - 14:23)
Are we in a second wave now?
- Yes, well, I don't find this definition to be very important, but we have societal spread in many regions at the same time today. That is part of the reason why we see such high number. Many people live in areas with great spread now, says Tegnell.
 
From the Swedish coronavirus press briefing this afternoon:

Tegnell får en fråga om flockimmunitet:
- Det finns ingen anledning att tro att vi tappat den. Det är extremt få fall i världen där man identifierat att någon fått smittan två gånger. Extremt (m)ycket talar för att immuniteten håller.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, Nov. 12, 2020 – 14:23)
Tegnell is asked about herd immunity
- There is no reason to think that we lost it. There are extremely few cases in the world where it has been identified that somebody got the infection twice. Extremely much speaks for the persistence of immunity.
Latest news about the coronavirus
I wonder how Tegnell can be as confident as he is about the persistence of immunity to a disease that only arrived in Europe this year; in particular when you can already read stories like these:
Russian Scientist Reinfected Himself COVID-19; Does Herd Immunity Really Work? (ScienceTimes, Nov. 1, 2020)

Därför kan du få corona igen (Expressen.se, Nov. 12, 2020)
Why you can get corona again

Testing:
Anders Tegnell, statsepidemiolog på Folkhälsomyndigheten:
- Vi testar mer i många länder, inte minst i Sverige. Vi är uppe i nästan 230 000 testade individer på en vecka. Det blir mer och mer tester väldigt snabbt i Sverige, och även i många andra länder.
- Vi har också i Sverige en fortsatt ökning i antalet fall. En ganska stor ökning förra veckan, vi kommer säkert få en ökning denna vecka, men kanske inte riktigt lika stor som förra veckan som det ser ut nu. Det kan bero på att testningen blivit lite sämre, men som ni ser så testar vi mycket.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, Nov. 12, 2020 – 14:04)
Anders Tegnell, national epidemiologist at the Public Health Agency:
- We are testing more in many countries, not least in Sweden. We are now testing almost 230,000 people a week. The number of tests is increasing rapidly in Sweden, and even in many other countries.
- The number of cases in Sweden also continues to rise. We had a rather big increase last week, we will probably have an increase this week, but maybe not really as big as last week as it looks now. This may be due to testing having gotten a little worse, but as you can see we test much.
Latest news about the coronavirus
It is obviously a step in the right direction that Sweden is now testing almost 230,000 a week but it is still far fewer than Denmark and far fewer than they should be testing, considering the current number of new cases. I notice that he doesn’t mention what he intends to do about the shortcomings of Swedish testing. And it is also obvious that the thinks that the only reason why the number of new cases may go down this week is that they are testing fewer than they ought to and not because the spread of the virus has decreased.

Schools:
Anders Tegnell, statsepidemiolog på Folkhälsomyndigheten:
- Vi släpper en uppdaterad rapport vad gäller barn, skola och lärare. Där kan vi återigen visa samma klara tendenser: att förskolelärare, lärare, och andra som jobbar med barn har liten risk att diagnosticeras med covid-19. Den är inte högre än andra yrkesgrupper, snarast lägre än de flesta andra.
- Vi har diskuterat med regionerna, när de ser smittspridning på skolorna är det framförallt mellan personal, inte mellan personal och barn på skolorna.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, Nov. 12, 2020 – 14:16)
Anders Tegnell, national epidemiologist at the Public Health Agency:
- We are releasing an updated report about children, schools and teachers. We can see the same clear tendency again: the pre-school teachers, teachers and others working with children have very little risk of being diagnosed with Covid-19. It isn’t higher than in other professions, maybe even lower than most others.
- We have discussed with the regions, when they see spread at schools, it is primarily between members of staff, not between staff and children at the schools.
Latest news about the coronavirus
I look forward to seeing that report. Based on my experience as a high-school teacher, I know for a fact that teachers spend relatively little time with other teachers or other adult school staff. Teachers spend most of their time in the classrooms with students, which makes me doubt the idea that coronavirus transmission primarily happens from teacher to teacher.
I would like to see actual analysis showing that the strain(s) of the virus circulating among teachers is different from the one(s) circulating among students.


Contradiction in terms:
Anders Tegnell slog på torsdagen fast att barn och ungdomar inte driver pandemin, men många ungdomar får ändå inte idrotta.
Stolligheten kring ungdomsidrotten och corona fortsätter. Anders Tegnell talar emot sig själv när han stoppar tonåringar.
Tegnell talar emot sig själv när stolligheten fortsätter (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 12, 2020)
This Thursday, Anders Tegnell stated that children and young people don’t drive the pandemic, and yet, many young people are not allowed to do sports.
The absurdity in the question of youth sports and corona continues. Anders Tegnell is contradicting himself when he stops teenagers.
Tegnell contradicts himself when the absurdity continues
It does seem unreasonable to assume that teenagers spread the infection when doing sports, but do not do so in school.
 
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Thursday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Nov. 12, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 605 (6,122) 4,458* 128* **according to SVT.se
Denmark: 130 (755) 1,011* 43 *based on 75,139 tests
Iceland: 73 (25) 18 3
Finland: 66 (365) 197 14
Norway: 54 (291) 717 21
Iceland has 472 active cases, Faroe Islands 3, New Zealand 53.
The Faroe Islands have 8 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.
Three active Covid cases remaining - No positive Covid-19 tests have been registered since Saturday (KVF.fo, Nov. 12, 2020)

For those of you who understand Swedish, I strongly recommend the documentary mentioned yesterday:
Den svenska strategin (SVTplay.se, Nov. 11, 2020)
Anders Tegnell and Johan Carlson, the 'corona general' and the leader of the Public Health Agency, really don't appreciate well-prepared journalists! And representatives of the Swedish government also aren't happy when their attempts at blame-shifting are questioned.
 
Why Sweden is way above other Nordic countries - Another Swedish moron: Jan Albert

A new article in Aftonbladet has a list of European countries, their rate of infections, tests, and percentage of positive tests. I can recommend taking a look at the graphs and lists in the article.
The obvious question presents itself: Why is Sweden's percentage of positive cases so high in comparison to the other Nordic countries?
So they go to one of the many alleged experts to get the answer to the question, in this case Jan Albert:


Smittspridningen i Sverige av coronaviruset ligger nu skyhögt över resten av Norden.
Jan Albert, professor i smittskydd, har en teori om vad det kan bero på:
– Våra grannländer kunde hålla tillbaka smittspridningen i början och det är möjligt att den effekten fortfarande sitter i, säger han.
(…)
Den 1 november låg Sverige på 18:e plats i Europa när det gäller andel testade, bland de 34 länder som det fanns uppgifter för den dagen.
Samtidigt var andelen som testade positivt mycket högre i Sverige än i våra grannländer den 1 november, med 9,2 procent positiva tester.
– Det visar att det är en omfattande smittspridning. Men man måste komma ihåg att siffrorna gäller upptäckta fall, de faktiska fallen är alltid fler än de som upptäcks. Samtidigt är det så att Sverige ligger lågt även här, jämfört med de flesta länder. Det är egentligen Norge och Finland, och i viss mån Danmark, som sticker ut, säger Jan Albert.
Sverige hamnade först på 19:e plats i Europa när det gäller andel positiva tester den 1 november, med 9,2 procent positiva tester. Värst var Slovenien med 32 procent positiva tester – var tredje testad var alltså smittad.
Island hamnade på 30:e plats (3,9 procent), Norge på 32:a (1,8 procent), Finland på 33:e (1,7 procent) och Danmark på 34:e och sista plats (1,6 procent) av de 34 länder som det fanns uppgifter för denna dag.
Därför ligger Sverige skyhögt över övriga Norden (Aftonbladet.se, Nov. 13, 2020)
The spread of the coronavirus infection in Sweden is now skyhigh above the rest of Europe.
Jan Albert, professor of infectious disease prevention, has a theory for what this may be due to.
– Our neighboring countries could contain the virus in the beginning, and it is possible that this effect is still there, he says.
(…)
On November 1, Sweden was #18 in Europe when it comes to proportion of people tested, among the 34 countries that we have information about on that day.
At the same time, the proportion of people testing positve was much higher in Sweden than in our neighboring countries on November 1, with 9.2 percent positive tests.
– It shows that the spread is massive. But you have to remember that the numbers are of detected cases, the number of actual cases is always higher than the number of detected cases. At the same time, Sweden is low even here, comparared to most countries. Actually, Norway and Finland, and to some extent Denmark, are the outliers, says Jan Albert.
Sweden was #19 in Europe if we look at percentage of positive tests on Nov. 1, with 9.2 percent of positive tests. Worst was Slovenia with 32 percent positive tests – so one in three persons tested was positive.
Iceland was #30 (3.9 percent), Norway at #32 (1.8 percent), Finland #33 (1.7 percent) and Denmark at #34 (1.6 percent), the last of 34 countries whose data we have data from this day.
Why Sweden is way above the other Nordic countries

This is another example of why you shouldn't ask the architects of the Swedish strategy this kind of question. They inevitably come up with two answers, both of them misleading:
1) They downplay Sweden's actual disastrous situation: 'Well, it's not really as bad as it seems if only you find the right countries to compare it with, i.e. those with worse numbers than Sweden. Norway, Finland and Denmark, the countries that doing better than Sweden, are the freaks.'
2) They can only think of explanations that point away from the Swedish strategy. In this case, that because Sweden had high numbers in first four months of the pandemic, their refusal to use the respite they got in summer to fix their insufficient testing and contact-tracing capacity has nothing to do with the second wave now raging in the country. It must be some (entirely imaginary) infectious residue from the first wave!

This is what the genius had to say about the Swedish strategy in early April when he was still very proud of it. (The Kiwis and Ozzies are gonna love this!):


Is Sweden crazy, or smart? Expert Jan Albert explains his country's plan to stay "open" as others lock down.
”Any country that says that everyone will not get it is sort of lying because there is no way to prevent this virus from continue spreading until a sufficient proportion of the population has been infected. It may be delayed by shutdown, but it won’t go away. The only way to have ..., to really prevent the infections is a vaccine, and we don’t have that, so any country will … there’s just no alternative to herd immunity. But it may come quicker or more slowly, but at the same time … (?) lockdown will almost certainly or will certainly rebound when lockdown is lifted.”
Science Unscripted: Sweden’s approach – with Jan Albert (DeutscheWelle, April 7, 2020)


I think that this shows that the whole segment of established epidemiologists and infectious disease experts responsible for the Swedish strategy, even at this point when any belief that they were right the first time has been proven wrong, are doing their absolute worst to ensure that the disaster continues:
1) By downplaying the situation so Swedes don't really notice how bad the situation is - again.
2) By putting spokes in the wheels of any attempt to correct the mistakes made during the first outbreak.
The whole bunch of them should be relegated to helping out at ICU wards and nursing homes, and their jobs and positions should be handed over to people who understand what a pandemic is or at least aren't in denial of the success of the elimination strategy in the countries that have applied it.
And speaking of those countries: Why limit the comparison of Sweden to other countries to European countries?
 
... The whole bunch of them should be relegated to helping out at ICU wards and nursing homes, and their jobs and positions should be handed over to people who understand what a pandemic is or at least aren't in denial of the success of the elimination strategy in the countries that have applied it. ...


Agreed heartily. And when they and their family catch it, it must be ensured that the treatment they get is in no way different than what their average countryman has access to.

The only way these jokers, whoever and wherever in the world they might be, will know to act responsibly is if they personally are made to feel the consequences of their actions.
 
If that's not damning with faint praise, I don't know what is. Five cases in and around my village in the past week. (At least they're telling us that now, although you practically have to be psychic to find the information.)

43 in my rural MSOA area
 
We're down to 1 to 4 now. They don't give an exact number when it's under 5 to protect patient confidentiality. If anyone can explain that to me rationally, I'll be grateful.
 
We're down to 1 to 4 now. They don't give an exact number when it's under 5 to protect patient confidentiality. If anyone can explain that to me rationally, I'll be grateful.

Yeah my postcode is a little island of white between some nasty colours.
 
Friday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Nov. 13, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 609 (6,164) 5,990* 137* **according to SVT.se A steep rise in new cases, deaths and ICU patients. No new Swedish numbers till Tuesday, Nov. 17.
Denmark: 130 (756) 1,037* 40 *based on 71,000 tests, 1.4 percent positive.
Iceland: 73 (25) 10 2
Finland: 67 (369) 316 15
Norway: 54 (294) 688 23
Iceland has 447 active cases, Faroe Islands 3, New Zealand 53.
The Faroe Islands have 8 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized. The numbers weren’t updated this Friday.
 
Jimme Åkesson: Doubts the ambiguous signals
The leader of the Sweden Democrats criticizes the signals that came from the Public Health Agency about a second wave in autumn, i.e. that it wouldn’t happen. He criticizes that Sweden once again wasn’t prepared for the rising number of cases.
He also seems to believe that the Swedish health authorities are lying about the number of new cases, Covid-19 patients in ICUs and deaths, which may have been the reason why Clutch Cargo was so adamant at one point that data was entirely unreliable.


The testing chaos: No answer until you have stopped being infectious
It takes at least four days, and sometimes seven, from the moment you order a test until you get the results.

Sjukhusets coronaoro: ”Är nästan som i våras” (Expressen.se, Nov. 13, 2020)
The hospital’s corona anxiety: ”It is almost like in spring” From Sahlgrenska University Hospital

– I våras hoppades och trodde vi att det handlade om en ny sjukdom. Vi ville inte se att det var det vinterspridningsvirus som det faktiskt är – att det sprids när det blir kallt och vi börjar umgås mer inomhus, säger Mikael Köhler.
I flera veckor har hans region toppat löpsedlarna med svarta rubriker. Bakom kulisserna pågår ett febrilt arbete för att vända Uppsalatrenden och platta till den kurva som sedan mitten av oktober pekat uppåt.
– Det vi gör annorlunda nu är att vi gör allt vi kan för att provta och smittspåra. Det fanns ett beslut från FHM att vi inte skulle smittspåra och vi följde de råd och rekommendationer som kom, vilket visade sig vara helt fel. Vi skulle ha försökt att hålla i smittspårningen, inte gett upp den så tidigt, säger Köhler.
Virusexperter: Här brast Sveriges strategi (Sydsvenskan.se, Nov. 13, 2020)
– In the spring of 2020, we were hoping and thinking that it was a new disease. We did not want to see that it was the winter-spreading virus that it actually is – that it spreads as it is getting cold outside and we start socializing more indoors, says Mikael Köhler.
For several weks, his region was at the top of the news with black . Behind the scenes, people are working frantically, trying to turn around the trend in Uppsala and flatten the curve, which has been pointing upwards since October.
– What we do differently now is that we all do everything we can to test and contact-trace. The Public Health Agency had decided that we shouldn’t do contact tracing and we followed the advice and recommendations from them, which turned out to be quite wrong. We should have tried to maintain contact tracing, not give it up so early, says Köhler.
Virus experts: This is where Sweden’s strategy failed
The regions have started ignoring the advice and recommendations from the Public Health Agency.

De danska minkarna med muterat coronavirus skakar om hela världen. Finns risken för att en ny och okontrollerbar smitta sprids? I Sverige har ytterligare tre farmar smittats och minkfrågan skapar nu en spricka i regeringen.
Rädslan för muterat virus bland minkar ökar i Sverige. Professor: ”Får absolut inte hända att vi får en pandemi mitt i pandemin.”
Rädslan för muterade minkvirus ökar i Sverige (Sydsvenskan.se, Nov. 14, 2020)
The whole world is shocked by the Danish mink with the mutated coronavirus. Is there a risk that a new and uncontrollable infection is spreading? In Sweden, three more farms have been infected and the mink question is now creating a rift in the government.
The fear of mutated virus in mink is growing in Sweden. Professor: ”A new pandemic in the middle of the pandemic cannot be allowed to happen.”
The fear of mutated mink virus is growing in Sverige
 
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