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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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carlosy said:
The gap in Pennsylvania seem to be to too big for Biden at 92% counted.
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On what basis do you make this claim?

I and others have shown the math in this thread. He only needs to get 61% of the remaining votes to take the lead. So far, in the updates posted today, he has been getting 73% of the vote. If he maintains that, he blows right by. No guarantee that he will maintain that pace, but what is the basis for the assertion that he won't continue well ahead?
 
Mike! said:
It's been on the news today, both Biden AND Trump have shattered all previous vote totals. Although, I don't think it's the highest percentage of the registered voters total of some past election (70% vs 75%?). Someone will bother to provide the correct stats in no time, I'm sure.
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That's one thing I haven't found on the NYT updates - the running total of the popular vote.
 
eerok said:
PA is within reach for Biden. Trump had a 700K lead on Tuesday night, and now it's around 110K and shrinking steadily. The PA governor predicted Biden will end up with better than 100K lead when all is done.
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How many % were counted when he had the 700K lead?
Just by looking at the chart, it looks like the trend is more stagnant lately.
 
pgwenthold said:
On what basis do you make this claim?

I and others have shown the math in this thread. He only needs to get 61% of the remaining votes to take the lead. So far, in the updates posted today, he has been getting 73% of the vote. If he maintains that, he blows right by. No guarantee that he will maintain that pace, but what is the basis for the assertion that he won't continue well ahead?
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Purely guess by looking at the chart and seeing how it seems to stagnate lately.
 
carlosy said:
How many % were counted when he had the 700K lead?
Just by looking at the chart, it looks like the trend is more stagnant lately.
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Not at all. See this plot...

https://twitter.com/DonnaBlackmond/status/1324417654619140096

Trump's lead continues to drop pretty much linearly all day with the number of votes counted and has been since yesterday.

As I noted, he continues to get more than 70% of the votes in the updates, and he only needs 61% to take the lead.
 
acbytesla said:
This is all insane. Biden is up by more than 3 million votes. It should be over already.
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Correct. The popular vote should decide presidential elections, and (if really needed) another statistical advantage for low-population states should be created.
 
carlosy said:
How many % were counted when he had the 700K lead?
Just by looking at the chart, it looks like the trend is more stagnant lately.
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The remaining votes are largely mail-in, and Biden is getting most of them. He's overperforming what he needs, and this has been consistent for a long time now.
 
Joe Biden will need to carry 60% of the remaining vote (which consist nearly entirely of mail in ballots) to win Pennsylvania. So far he's carried 78% of the mail-in vote in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania hopes to be complete by the end of today. Winning Penn gets Biden to 273 without needing Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, or Arizona.

Now this will immediately cause Trump to as close as humanly possible literally **** kittens and scream about the the election being stolen at volumes so loud it will be THX Certified, but still...
 
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trustbutverify said:
Correct. The popular vote should decide presidential elections, and (if really needed) another statistical advantage for low-population states should be created.
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Remember the 3 reasons provided by the framers for the Electoral College:

1) The general population may not know enough about the candidates to make an informed decision
2) Even if they have enough information, the general population is not sufficiently wise to be able to make a good decision (seriously, that's why you were supposed to elect someone smarter than you to cast your vote)
3) The voting population of the slave states way smaller than the number of citizens, and so their votes wouldn't matter as much (remember, congressional representation was based on the 3/5 rule, so they got a lot more electoral votes).

I'm not joking, these are the original reasons for the electoral college.

The only one that depended on state's representation is #3, which was solved by giving all citizens the right to vote.

ETA: Always remember, the only "state's rights" the slave states cared about was the right to own slaves
 
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JoeMorgue said:
Okay seriously what do people have against Nate Silver? I'm honestly asking.
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Sheeesh. It's just a joke.

Although, putting my pontificating hat on, the idea that Nate Silver would demand a retraction AND expect to get it from Fox News did cause me to LOL.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Because they need a scapegoat, and Silver is the most visible.

https://imgur.com/r/comics/ntXyP
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I don't follow FiveThirtyEight closely but it has been *very* cautious as far as I can tell ... while it's pretty clear IMO that polling error is in play, they have played it very straight so far, not calling states, just reporting on it and referring to ABC News projections as its lead indicator.
 
Elagabalus said:
Sheeesh. It's just a joke.

Although, putting my pontificating hat on, the idea that Nate Silver would demand a retraction AND expect to get it from Fox News did cause me to LOL.
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Sorry I took more literally then you meant.

But I have seen people get like... really pissed just at the idea of Nate Silver, like they are mad that he's daring to put "math" into politics when it should all be about kissing babies and who some guy in John Deere hat sitting at a diner table in Iowa thinks will be a better President for the tractor welding industry or some such.
 
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