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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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As mentioned above, it's kind of hard to calculate exactly how many ballots are still left to count, because there is a difference between 88.5% and 89.4%, but if we are conservative, here is what Biden needs to do in the remaining ballots to win the last 4 states

Az about 470K left to vote, he needs 43% (In the most recent update, he got 54.9%)
NV about 150K left, he needs 47% (In today's updates since it jumped to 12K, he's been getting 47.8%)
PA about 500K left, he needs about 61% (to be safe). (in today's updates, he's been getting 75%)
GA about 50K left according to a director, he needs about 64%. In today's updates so far, he's gotten 63.5%

I don't think GA is going to make it
 
Resume said:
Didn't Fox retract based on 450,000 uncounted mail in ballots? Nate Silver is calling for a retraction as well.



If Biden loses AZ, he absolutely must win GA and PA, plus NV to win.
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No, all he needs is PA.

He needs PA, or any two of the other three remaining states.

ETA: I'm assuming NC isn't really a remaining state. I'm assuming it's Trump, but the only change would be any two of the four remaining states, instead of three.

One way or another, he has to come up with 17 electoral votes that haven't yet been awarded.
 
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Resume said:
If Biden loses AZ, he absolutely must win GA and PA, plus NV to win.
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Where are you starting from? Biden's at 253 without counting AZ. If he wins PA that's 20 right there, he wouldn't need AZ or any other additional states. If he doesn't win PA or AZ then he just needs any two of the remaining three: NV, GA, and NC.
 
If I had artistic abilities, I would draw a cartoon with two fat ladies in Brunhilde style armor and weapons, battling to the death, so that one could sing when the fight was over.
 
TragicMonkey said:
Where are you starting from? Biden's at 253 without counting AZ. If he wins PA that's 20 right there, he wouldn't need AZ or any other additional states. If he doesn't win PA or AZ then he just needs any two of the remaining three: NV, GA, and NC.
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Yes, Biden has more than one path. Trump not so much.
 
Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania with him losing North Carolina (and I guess Alaska since it technically hasn't been called but really who cares...) and him loosing Georgia by like the tiniest and most annoying of margins is probably our most likely scenario.
 
TragicMonkey said:
If I'm mathing correctly, Trump would need to get all of the remaining states to win. Biden just needs PA, or any two of the others.
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Obviously, if Biden needs any two of the others, Trump can afford to lose one of the others.

ETA: Although if the one he lost is Georgia, that would give them each 269, and a trip to the House of Representatives, where Trump would presumably win.
 
TragicMonkey said:
Where are you starting from? Biden's at 253 without counting AZ. If he wins PA that's 20 right there, he wouldn't need AZ or any other additional states. If he doesn't win PA or AZ then he just needs any two of the remaining three: NV, GA, and NC.
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I'm a bit tired. I was counting PA at 10 rather than 20.
 
Has anyone noticed that the gap in Michigan is now 150K, so almost 3%?

Remember yesterday when that was still in the Trump column?

The difference is bigger than Trump's win in Wyoming.
 
This is all insane. Biden is up by more than 3 million votes. It should be over already.
 
acbytesla said:
This is all insane. Biden is up by more than 3 million votes. It should be over already.
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Once the west is all counted, I expect it'll be a lot higher for Biden. I'm curious what the record is for total popular vote in the US.
 
carlosy said:
Looking at the charts over here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html

It seems to me that Drumpf's chances are better. He is moving up in NC, Nevada and Arizona. The gap in Pennsylvania seem to be to too big for Biden at 92% counted. Georgia is super close with Drumpf leading 0.3 at 98% counted.
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PA is within reach for Biden. Trump had a 700K lead on Tuesday night, and now it's around 110K and shrinking steadily. The PA governor predicted Biden will end up with better than 100K lead when all is done.
 
eerok said:
Once the west is all counted, I expect it'll be a lot higher for Biden. I'm curious what the record is for total popular vote in the US.
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It's been on the news today, both Biden AND Trump have shattered all previous vote totals. Although, I don't think it's the highest percentage of the registered voters total of some past election (70% vs 75%?). Someone will bother to provide the correct stats in no time, I'm sure.
 
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