2020 Presidential Election part 2

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Galaxie said:
No, if he gets AZ, WI, MI, and one of the ME congressional districts, he'll be right at 270 if I did the math right
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He is likely to lose one in Maine, but get one in Nebraska. He might get the one in Maine, too. But yes, if he gets what you described, it's exactly 270.
 
Stacyhs said:
Good God, people. Enough already and give it a rest with the hand wringing and doomsday predictions. The ballot counting isn't over. Do you not effing LISTEN? They've been telling us for weeks that election night would look better for Trump which is exactly why he's been trying so hard to stop mail-in ballots from being counted past midnight tonight. Far more Democrats vote by mail-in ballots than Republicans which can skew the numbers in favor of Biden tomorrow and even into Thursday. PA and Michigan are expected to be affected be this.
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I think it's also worth pointing out that recounts will be called for in very close states, and absentee ballots always cause more "discovered" votes in the recount. In other words, there are always more ballots where the intent of the voter is clear, but the initial machine count fails to count the ballot.

i don't know if there are any states (yet) for which a recount will be required.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
I'm a little nervous here. I feel like somehow Biden is going to pull this off and that anguish-feast I can almost taste is going to be snatched away from me.

Hoping not.
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It wold be such a shame if America did not become a white supremist nation with non whites reduced to de facto serfdom.
 
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Stacyhs said:
Good God, people. Enough already and give it a rest with the hand wringing and doomsday predictions. The ballot counting isn't over. Do you not effing LISTEN? They've been telling us for weeks that election night would look better for Trump which is exactly why he's been trying so hard to stop mail-in ballots from being counted past midnight tonight. Far more Democrats vote by mail-in ballots than Republicans which can skew the numbers in favor of Biden tomorrow and even into Thursday. PA and Michigan are expected to be affected be this.
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Yeah, but it's reeeeeeeeeally going down to the wire, then.

PA:
Trump 56.7%
Biden 42%
with 66% counted.

Michigan:
Trump 53.3%
Biden 44.9%
with 61% counted.

Wisconsion:
Trump 51.1%
Biden 47.2%
with 77% counted.


I mean, yeah, there may be enough there in the mail ballots to make up the difference, but that is worrying!
 
I hear Nate Silver is calling it 85% Biden.

ETA his tweet


Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
14m
If you just go by what ABC News has called (we're on the conservative side tonight)... Biden's win probability would go from 69% to 85% based on NE-2 being called! That one electoral vote makes a huge amount of difference.
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Stacyhs said:
Good God, people. Enough already and give it a rest with the hand wringing and doomsday predictions. The ballot counting isn't over. Do you not effing LISTEN? They've been telling us for weeks that election night would look better for Trump which is exactly why he's been trying so hard to stop mail-in ballots from being counted past midnight tonight.
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Yes, ballot counting will go on for a while, and democrats still have a good shot.

I think some people worried that:

- the deficits are much wider than some people were expecting at this point (down by more than 10% in Pennsylvania and 8% in Michigan. That is a lot of ground to cover)

- it was hoped the democrats would have a huge victory, even flipping some normally conservative states and Florida, to minimize the chance stubby Mcbonespurs might try to steal the election through the courts. But many of the hoped-for states are almost all counted, with little sign of the big breakthroughs

- some of the supposed senate breakthroughs don't seem to be coming (republicans have a comfortable lead in Maine and north Carolina)


Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk
 
Even with a Biden win, this would be the first time polls have been so far off, and off in so many places... which is odd because people have already spent years claiming they were off in 2016, which they weren't. (Well, either that or the "vote count" is being faked in a lot of places.)
 
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The Don said:
Given that President Trump significantly outperformed the polls in swing states last time around, I'm tempted to believe the so called "skewed" polls AND give him the margin of error too.

As a result, IMO Biden +5 points is too close to call so Michigan is a Trump-leaning toss-up and Biden is just edging Wisconsin.

edited to add.....

Florida and Pennsylvania are IMO lost causes and will go to President Trump by a comfortable margin.
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:(

It gives me no joy. Cassandra was doomed to know the future but not to be believed.
 
The Don said:
:(

It gives me no joy. Cassandra was doomed to know the future but not to be believed.
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Looks as if you were rigfht again.
I see the Amereican people are going to have to suffer catastrophe..which I think willhappen in the next four years....before they wise up.
 
angrysoba said:
Yeah, but it's reeeeeeeeeally going down to the wire, then.

PA:
Trump 56.7%
Biden 42%
with 66% counted.

Michigan:
Trump 53.3%
Biden 44.9%
with 61% counted.

Wisconsion:
Trump 51.1%
Biden 47.2%
with 77% counted.


I mean, yeah, there may be enough there in the mail ballots to make up the difference, but that is worrying!
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I just went to the Oakland County Clerk web site, (Michigan, Detroit suburbs) and download the results as they existed about 20 minutes ago.

The news sites show 74% reported so far, but looking at the raw numbers, almost all of the uncounted ballots are mail in ballots, and in places where the mail in has been tallied, Biden is leading Trump in the mail in ballots even in Republican strongholds.

We're a suburban county, so I'm sure out in the militia countries in western Michigan, Trump will have strength even in the mail in count, but there are still a lot of Biden votes to be counted.

It ain't over.
 
Trump is up 700,000 votes in PA. Biden has to win the remaining vote by 2:1 to win the state. There were about 700k votes total in Philadelphia in 2016
Trump has almost the number of votes he got in Philadelphia in 2016 and only 46% of the vote has been counted. There aren’t enough votes in Philly to close the gap.
 
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