2020 Presidential Election part 2

[The Great Zaganza]

It's also what abusive husbands say to their beaten up wives, which seems a better analogy in this case.

I see the abusive husband dynamic more in the way Trump acts towards the GOP and his supporters: they will always take him back because they have convinced themselves that "he means well" and "it's not his fault" and "everyone is against him, so I have to stand by him".

 

[Pixel42]

Something just brought to mind the Steptoe and Son episode "Divided We Stand", in which relations between the two of them had got so bad they'd partitioned the house into separate areas and were practising an early kind of social distancing. But they only had one TV, so the living room partition ended in front of it so they could both watch it ...



Unfortunately in this analogy it's Trump who has the knobs on his side.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

He might not ultimately succeed. But those legal challenges could create doubt about the results, which is part of a plan to have Repub legislatures submit alternate slates of electors that would support Trump if Biden wins the votes. This is not something to take lightly.

https://www.salon.com/2020/10/06/tr...-state-electors-no-matter-the-results-report/


https://www.businessinsider.com/tru...ctors-plan-loyalists-swing-states-2020-9?op=1

People who know him well, like Michael Cohen, say there is no chance that Trump will go away quietly.

I'm sure we're in for a rough ride in the next two months, be it Trump or the Trumpkins refusing to concede, or Trump going on a psycho-rampage because he's lost.

I find the court rulings reassuring, despite give-me-another-beer Rapey McRapeface spewing out ignorance about the country's confidence in the outcome if heaven forbid the result takes too long.

The rest of that stuff is too scary to contemplate. When this is over any states considering ignoring the actual votes need some serious legislative changes so this doesn't happen again.

 

[Aridas]

Armed men watching polls in Denver.


Black Panthers did that once, with just a billy club (no guns) and the conservative outrage machine went into serious overdrive. But this is okay, because....

Shhhhhh. You already know that actual principles had nothing to do with that.

Do you really think businesses are boarding up because they think Trump is going to win and Biden supporters are going to riot? Surely the reverse is much more likely.

In fair part, that depends on where the businesses are, honestly. And "because they think that Trump is going to win" may well be a bit off the mark compared to taking precautions. Add to that that even if peaceful protests happen, whichever candidate wins - there's plenty of bad actors that like to try to use such as cover to cause problems.

Three cases of Trump rally people getting stranded in less than a week... was this happening before and just not getting talked about yet? Or did something change recently?

Dunno. Still, the weather is colder and the first occasion reported had a fair bit to do with a number of people outright needing to go to a hospital because of the Trump campaign's BS. It could easily be that that simply attracted attention to that, but it's hard to say without as much hard data. Now, with that said, Trump simply not paying what he owes has been the case since a very long time ago and similar stories of Trump/his campaign not paying what is owed (and paying exorbitant fees to Trump properties) have popped up many times throughout his administration.

 

[dirtywick]

I'm sure we're in for a rough ride in the next two months, be it Trump or the Trumpkins refusing to concede, or Trump going on a psycho-rampage because he's lost.

I find the court rulings reassuring, despite give-me-another-beer Rapey McRapeface spewing out ignorance about the country's confidence in the outcome if heaven forbid the result takes too long.

The rest of that stuff is too scary to contemplate. When this is over any states considering ignoring the actual votes need some serious legislative changes so this doesn't happen again.

It's the reason I hope he takes it to the SC no matter what happens. We'll find out right away if we can all go back to trying to get votes instead of taking them away or not.

 

[Stacyhs]

One of the the things I'm looking forward to most after tomorrow: no more campaign ads. If I hear the word "radical" one more time, I'm going to throw something through the damn TV.

 

[angrysoba]

Do you really think businesses are boarding up because they think Trump is going to win and Biden supporters are going to riot? Surely the reverse is much more likely.

What's most likely is that Trump will declare himself the winner election night, and his lawyers will try to shut down the count. He's practically promised to do that, and a lot of people won't be happy about it.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/01/trump-vows-election-night-legal-challenges-in-key-swing-states/

Absolutely the opposite is the risk. If Trump isn't kicked out on his petard, we're all ******.

Look guys, I hope Biden wins, but let's face it, if there are riots it probably won't be the Trumpsters doing it. They are boarding up shops in NYC and Washington DC. They're not worried about Trumpsters.

 

[angrysoba]

Unfortunately in this analogy it's Trump who has the knobs on his side.

Heh heh! Of course the knobs will be voting for him.

 

[Pixel42]

Look guys, I hope Biden wins, but let's face it, if there are riots it probably won't be the Trumpsters doing it. They are boarding up shops in NYC and Washington DC. They're not worried about Trumpsters.

I'm not saying there's no chance that Trump will win and that there will be consequent protests, especially if there are legitimate reasons to think the result is bogus. I'm just saying it seems more likely to me that Biden will win and that it's Trump supporters (egged on by him, as they have been already) who will refuse to accept the legality of that result and react accordingly. And there are Trump supported everywhere, even in New York and Washington.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

More like, "These plaintiffs have no standing so I'm dismissing the suit. However, on appeal, another court may say that I'm wrong about standing. If that's true then I would have ruled these votes illegal because Texas State law requires votes to happen in a building and a tent is not a building."

That's basically it. The judge said drive-thru voting for early voting is completely legal. But the law allows early voting from "moveable structures" such as a tent but requires that election day voting be conducted from "inside a building". The fact that the legislature specifically allowed for moveable structures for early voting but not for election day voting indicates a congressional intent to not allow for polling from tents on election day.

Based on that, he would have granted an injection to stop the current drive-through voting run out of tents on election day (although it appears he may have allowed similar curb-side voting as long as the poll workers were working from inside a building and not out of tents).

That may seem a bit arbitrary, but it is the case that was brought before the court and is consistent with the law. In addition, the designation of what a polling place is has further consequences in terms of laws regarding electioneering and poll watchers.

I find the judge's opinion completely reasonable.

 

[Sherkeu]

I'm not saying there's no chance that Trump will win and that there will be consequent protests, especially if there are legitimate reasons to think the result is bogus. I'm just saying it seems more likely to me that Biden will win and that it's Trump supporters (egged on by him, as they have been already) who will refuse to accept the legality of that result and react accordingly. And there are Trump supported everywhere, even in New York and Washington.

Conservative voters do not riot and loot urban areas. They mostly do not even live in them. The boarding up is obviously done against what we have seen all year in cites around the country. These owners are hedging and do not want to lose their businesses in case of some mob reaction to a Trump win, however improbable the polls may have it. They have been wrong before.

 

[Darat]

The first votes have been counted.

In Dixville Notch, New Hampshire

Joe Biden - 5 votes
Donald Trump - 0 votes.

It's a landslide!

 

[The Don]

According to the BBC's reporting of RealClearPolitics' consolidation of the polls, President Trump is pulling ahead in some swing states and really closing the gap in others where Joe Biden has had a big lead.

It's now well within the margin of error the swing states. I'm now back to thinking (fearing) that while he will lose the popular vote by a considerable margin, he now has a significant chance of winning the Electoral College.

I think (fear) that people have bought into the success messages regarding the economy and Covid-19 and the fear messages on everything else:

The average of these swing-state polls has tightened since the middle of October, with Trump narrowing the deficit to two percentage points as of Monday.

Florida: Biden 1.8+ lead
Pennsylvania: Biden 2.6+ lead
Michigan: Biden 5.1+ lead
Wisconsin: Biden 6.7+ lead
North Carolina: Trump 0.2+ lead
Arizona: Biden 0.9+ lead

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ele...a1244c49467302d61cead8&pinned_post_type=share

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

It's a landslide!

Stop the counting! Trump must immediately concede! Where are all these other votes coming from? Fraud! Rigged! Victory!

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

It's now well within the margin of error the swing states. I'm now back to thinking (fearing) that while he will lose the popular vote by a considerable margin, he now has a significant chance of winning the Electoral College.

I think Trump has a very real possibility of wining the left-leaning swing states indicated by the polls. It really comes down to whether Biden will hold Pennsylvania. Trump probably cannot win without Pennsylvania. Biden is ahead by quite a bit in the polls. But it depends on voter turn out.

 

[The Don]

I think Trump has a very real possibility of wining the left-leaning swing states indicated by the polls. It really comes down to whether Biden will hold Pennsylvania. Trump probably cannot win without Pennsylvania. Biden is ahead by quite a bit in the polls. But it depends on voter turn out.

Looking at the polling, Pennsylvania is a nailed-on certainty for President Trump.

He's closed the margin by 4 points in two days - to within the margin of error - and I can only see that continuing over the next 24 hours. I expect him to win it by 2-3 points at least.

He'll also now likely win Michigan and Wisconsin is now in play IMO.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Looking at the polling, Pennsylvania is a nailed-on certainty for President Trump.

He's closed the margin by 4 points in two days - to within the margin of error - and I can only see that continuing over the next 24 hours. I expect him to win it by 2-3 points at least.

He'll also now likely win Michigan and Wisconsin is now in play IMO.

Biden is at about a 4.5% lead in Pennsylvania. That is down by a couple points from recent weeks. But that is still a string lead. A 5% is almost impossible to overcome. At 4.5% there is a chance. But we don't have the Gary Johnson problem from 2016. And Biden has had a significant lead consistently and not like the up and down polls from 2016.

I don't see the likely win in Michigan or Wisconsin. Biden is up by 8+. The polls have been consistent. No small margins and no Gary Johnson issues. Polls would have to be way off. Only factor would be voter turn out or excluded ballots.

 

[angrysoba]

According to the BBC's reporting of RealClearPolitics' consolidation of the polls, President Trump is pulling ahead in some swing states and really closing the gap in others where Joe Biden has had a big lead.

It's now well within the margin of error the swing states. I'm now back to thinking (fearing) that while he will lose the popular vote by a considerable margin, he now has a significant chance of winning the Electoral College.

I think (fear) that people have bought into the success messages regarding the economy and Covid-19 and the fear messages on everything else:

The average of these swing-state polls has tightened since the middle of October, with Trump narrowing the deficit to two percentage points as of Monday.

Florida: Biden 1.8+ leadPennsylvania: Biden 2.6+ leadMichigan: Biden 5.1+ lead
Wisconsin: Biden 6.7+ lead
North Carolina: Trump 0.2+ lead
Arizona: Biden 0.9+ lead

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ele...a1244c49467302d61cead8&pinned_post_type=share

Michigan and Wisconsin looking good, but Biden really needs either Florida or Pennsylvania.

Squeaky bum time.

 

[angrysoba]

According to the BBC's reporting of RealClearPolitics' consolidation of the polls, President Trump is pulling ahead in some swing states and really closing the gap in others where Joe Biden has had a big lead.

It's now well within the margin of error the swing states. I'm now back to thinking (fearing) that while he will lose the popular vote by a considerable margin, he now has a significant chance of winning the Electoral College.

I think (fear) that people have bought into the success messages regarding the economy and Covid-19 and the fear messages on everything else:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ele...a1244c49467302d61cead8&pinned_post_type=share

Hmmm....Looking at the RCP, the polls that are showing the best for Trump are from the Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports. I think Fivethirtyeight treat them with a lot of caution (maybe weight them badly) because they consistently seem to skew (or is it unskew?) towards Trump.

 

[The Don]

Hmmm....Looking at the RCP, the polls that are showing the best for Trump are from the Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports. I think Fivethirtyeight treat them with a lot of caution (maybe weight them badly) because they consistently seem to skew (or is it unskew?) towards Trump.

Given that President Trump significantly outperformed the polls in swing states last time around, I'm tempted to believe the so called "skewed" polls AND give him the margin of error too.

As a result, IMO Biden +5 points is too close to call so Michigan is a Trump-leaning toss-up and Biden is just edging Wisconsin.

edited to add.....

Florida and Pennsylvania are IMO lost causes and will go to President Trump by a comfortable margin.