2020 Presidential Election part 2

[Monza]

I voted this morning in PA. I moved here a year ago and it's the first time my vote actually counts (electorially speaking). I showed up at the polling location at about 9am and I counted 60+ people in front of me. I stood in line about an hour or a little more, and the line had grown by another 25+ when I left.

It was strange to have so few options on the ballot. I'm used to voting for president, then about a dozen or so lesser positions, followed by 5 or 6 propositions. This had only a total of 6 contested races, I believe.

A word of caution: Be careful going to vote after binge watching Survivor. I had to mentally focus that I was voting for someone and not voting them off the island.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

... The coverage of businesses in New York in regards to this are quite funny in the sense that they don't have the balls to say the obvious.. that they are scared of the reaction to a Trump re-election causing the havoc. No one with a straight face can tell me these store fronts are boarding up in case Trump supports go wild if he loses. View that however you want, but that reality should be considered.

So you think Trump supporters won't come out with their 'long' guns and camo clothes when Trump loses?

Think they never break windows or loot?

 

[acbytesla]

I have a couple of friends who bolted from the highly populated areas to distant areas because they had always wanted to live in a more rural zone, but they couldn't find jobs there. Along comes work from home, and they saw their chance. I think it's the primary driver this year.

It's simply cheaper to live outside the cities. I doubt "riots" are really much of a factor anywhere.

No question that in the 50s through the early 80s racism as a factor of white flight to the suburbs and beyond...and it was the traffic that drove them back ito the cities. The pandemic and the ability/need to work from home makes the suburbs and rural areas attractive to many. But it would probably be a mistake to conclude any patterns we encounter today are a permanent trend. I do know that commercial real estate has cratered.

 

[Distracted1]

I have a couple of friends who bolted from the highly populated areas to distant areas because they had always wanted to live in a more rural zone, but they couldn't find jobs there. Along comes work from home, and they saw their chance. I think it's the primary driver this year.

"Highly populated areas do not necessarily mean "Cities" in the colloquial.

And Detroit has pretty much already seen all of the flight that it can see.

 

[Distracted1]

It's simply cheaper to live outside the cities. I doubt "riots" are really much of a factor anywhere.

No question that in the 50s through the early 80s racism as a factor of white flight to the suburbs and beyond...and it was the traffic that drove them back ito the cities. The pandemic and the ability/need to work from home makes the suburbs and rural areas attractive to many. But it would probably be a mistake to conclude any patterns we encounter today are a permanent trend. I do know that commercial real estate has cratered.

Wrong.
Inner cities are way, way, way cheaper to live in than suburbs- outside of outliers like S.F.

 

[portlandatheist]

I have a couple of friends who bolted from the highly populated areas to distant areas because they had always wanted to live in a more rural zone, but they couldn't find jobs there. Along comes work from home, and they saw their chance. I think it's the primary driver this year.

That is certainly part of it but the riots are definitely a part of the problem too, especially here in PDX. An example of this is Standard Insurance which is right next to the riots. They'll abandon much of their office space. This means less tax revenue for the city, less restaurant patronage, and so on.

 

[acbytesla]

Wrong.
Inner cities are way, way, way cheaper to live in than suburbs- outside of outliers like S.F.

And Seattle and Portland and New York and Boston and Denver and many many other cities. Nice try. It all comes down to money, jobs and services. I say this as someone who traded a 2000 square foot home on a quarter lot in the suburbs for a 2 bedroom apartment in the city. I loved living in the city and it wasn't cheap.

 

[Distracted1]

That is certainly part of it but the riots are definitely a part of the problem too, especially here in PDX. An example of this is Standard Insurance which is right next to the riots. They'll abandon much of their office space. This means less tax revenue for the city, less restaurant patronage, and so on.

Further closing of related businesses.
Strains on city services resulting from the decreased revenue leading to less attractive retail and living conditions etc..etc...etc...

What is the old quote? "nothing new under the sun"?

Anyway, I will not discuss this issue further in this thread- as it is certainly a derail from the election that is happening.

 

[Thermal]

And Seattle and Portland and New York and Boston and Denver and many many other cities. Nice try. It all comes down to money, jobs and services. I say this as someone who traded a 2000 square foot home on a quarter lot in the suburbs for a 2 bedroom apartment in the city. I loved living in the city and it wasn't cheap.

Or compared to a 3400 sq ft home on five rural acres with garages and outbuildings.

Two of my kids love the city life, and are willing to pay more to have less, just to experience it. I'd rather have the backwoods estate with grounds for the same jingle.

Working from home has also shown a lot of people that they don't need to actually be in a city to do their jobs. I expect more suburban and rural migration.

 

[Distracted1]

And Seattle and Portland and New York and Boston and Denver and many many other cities. Nice try. It all comes down to money, jobs and services. I say this as someone who traded a 2000 square foot home on a quarter lot in the suburbs for a 2 bedroom apartment in the city. I loved living in the city and it wasn't cheap.

If it was part of the city that one "loves living in", of course it wasn't

 

[Cain]

I don't see a prediction thread for electoral votes. I'll put my guess here: Biden with 290.

 

[Thermal]

I don't see a prediction thread for electoral votes. I'll put my guess here: Biden with 290.

I predict just north of 300

 

[Meadmaker]

"Highly populated areas do not necessarily mean "Cities" in the colloquial.

And Detroit has pretty much already seen all of the flight that it can see.

That's true. The friends I'm most familiar with moved from Royal Oak to Jackson.


I was part of "white flight" in some sense when I moved from one suburb to the next. When I moved into Oak Park in 1990, it was a mixed race neighborhood with a significant Jewish population. By the time I moved out of the neighborhood in 2002 there were only a few white families on the block, and half of those were Chaldean, so basically the Jews and "regular" white folks were gone.

But the point is that I don't think this year's exodus from cities was due to the usual "white flight" factors, and not fleeing riots. I think it was people who had wanted to get out, but were kept there by their jobs. The lockdown lasted long enough that work from home became a thing that lots of employers have decided to offer as a permanent solution for some employees. My friends bought a place in Jackson big enough to have a stable for two horses. That wasn't an option in Royal Oak.

 

[EE2016]

Well if we can all drag our eyes away from the Racist trying to bait us into a "Who's on First" Routine with Indians/First Nation Peoples....

- 6 states have already surpassed their 2016 voting numbers. Turnout is going to be big, at least in spots. I hope it's a trend that will hold consistent.

- The White House put up high security fencing last night.

- Voting was down in Spalding County Georgia for brief period due to an unspecified technical glitch. Luckily it does look (by all accounts) to have been a non-nefarious honest technical issue, voting was restored quickly, and provisional ballots were given to anyone affected who couldn't wait for restoral.

There have been technical issues in Lake and Lee counties in Florida. For Lee the second page of the ballot wasn't being counted. For Lake it was some sort of issue but it appears to be resolved.

So Florida is being Florida and doing weird things again.

 

[Dr. Keith]

Has happened before.
I grew up in Detroit in the Seventies and Eighties

Well, at least we have a common cause to focus our research on.

Now, if only the Trump Foundation will come through on that funding request we submitted. I think we used the word "urban" enough to get our point across, but you never know.

 

[Bob001]

That's me saying that when you have people who are burning cities down, throwing bricks at police's heads, attacking people they perceive to be the wrong political camp and/or wrong race and/or a business owner - and they've been doing this across the country for months, it isn't unreasonable to give the police / national guard orders to start firing at them with live rounds.

Because it isn't unreasonable. It's incredibly, breath-takingly basic and normal to suggest that.

It's actually remarkable that it wasn't done months ago. The great majority of these events happened BECAUSE it wasn't done.

So you think Kent State was an exercise in effective law enforcement? U.S. cops have been known to overreact to protesters, often brutally, but this isn't Egypt or Iran. Our cops don't shoot into crowds. It's stunning that you don't understand how offensive your remarks are.

You're in for a major adjustment in your world view in about 24 hours.

 

[Pixel42]

I don't see a prediction thread for electoral votes.

Start one?

 

[Distracted1]

That's true. The friends I'm most familiar with moved from Royal Oak to Jackson.


I was part of "white flight" in some sense when I moved from one suburb to the next. When I moved into Oak Park in 1990, it was a mixed race neighborhood with a significant Jewish population. By the time I moved out of the neighborhood in 2002 there were only a few white families on the block, and half of those were Chaldean, so basically the Jews and "regular" white folks were gone.

But the point is that I don't think this year's exodus from cities was due to the usual "white flight" factors, and not fleeing riots. I think it was people who had wanted to get out, but were kept there by their jobs. The lockdown lasted long enough that work from home became a thing that lots of employers have decided to offer as a permanent solution for some employees. My friends bought a place in Jackson big enough to have a stable for two horses. That wasn't an option in Royal Oak.

I have a good friend I used to drive up and visit in Jackson once in a while for about three years.

 

[Bob001]

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 3.7% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 8% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 2.6% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 6% up less than a month before the election.

I'd say that's similar enough

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 1% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 5% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 1.8% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 4% up less than a month before the election

I'd say that's similar enough too

That's certainly troubling. But a key difference between then and now is that Clinton was almost universally seen as the sure thing, the guaranteed winner, and a certain percentage of people who might have voted for her just stayed home because they didn't think their votes were needed. This time, as Ted Cruz(!) put it, Democrats will crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. But it's extremely unlikely that Trump could attract more support than he had then.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...-will-crawl-over-broken-glass-to-win-in-2020/

 

[acbytesla]

Or compared to a 3400 sq ft home on five rural acres with garages and outbuildings.

Two of my kids love the city life, and are willing to pay more to have less, just to experience it. I'd rather have the backwoods estate with grounds for the same jingle.

Working from home has also shown a lot of people that they don't need to actually be in a city to do their jobs. I expect more suburban and rural migration.

I get that. Everything is up in the air right now. I can't imagine raising a family in the city but if you don't have kids it can be great.

I moved into the city because I hated commuting. The apartment was expensive, but it was great not fighting traffic. It's nice being home in ten minutes instead of an hour. It's great to hang out at the cafe and walking home after dinner or drinks. It's great to step outside and hop on a bus and be at the stadium or concert hall in minutes. My home in the suburbs was nice, but everything involved getting in a car. Also, the upkeep seemed to swallow most of my weekends.