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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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The Don said:
Given that President Trump significantly outperformed the polls in swing states last time around, I'm tempted to believe the so called "skewed" polls AND give him the margin of error too.

As a result, IMO Biden +5 points is too close to call so Michigan is a Trump-leaning toss-up and Biden is just edging Wisconsin.

edited to add.....

Florida and Pennsylvania are IMO lost causes and will go to President Trump by a comfortable margin.
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Is this a defense mechanism on your part? Because there's nothing in the real world that indicates what you are saying.
 
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rdwight said:
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No one with a straight face can tell me these store fronts are boarding up in case Trump supports go wild if he loses.
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Picture me with the straightest face you can imagine:

There store fronts are being boarded up in case Trump supports [sic] go wild if he loses.
 
angrysoba said:
To be fair, he is saying he is going by what happened last time round:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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It just annoys me that his kind of thinking might have a real world impact in that Democrats might just lay down flat in the face of cheating and voter-suppression because OMG THE POLLS ARE ALWAYS WRONG TRUMP WILL WIN!!!

It's also doom-screaming for the off-chance of being labled a prophet should the improbable occur. Nobody will remember if you're wrong, but everyone will laud you if you're right.
 
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SezMe said:
Picture me with the straightest face you can imagine:

There store fronts are being boarded up in case Trump supports [sic] go wild if he loses.
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Well acted, but they aren't.

They really aren't.

Like I say, I am hoping for a Biden win but the store owners fear a Trump win because of what could happen to their stores if he does.
 
uke2se said:
Is this a defense mechanism on your part? Because there's nothing in the real world that indicates what you are saying.
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angrysoba said:
To be fair, he is saying he is going by what happened last time round:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

ETA: There are definitely similarities if you look at the swing states and the margins of error as well as the snake chart.
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Yup, as angrysoba points out, we're seeing exactly the same thing as happened last time around:

  • The polls generally narrowing significantly as polling approaches - which usually happens
  • Swing states changing even more than the national numbers in President Trump's favour
  • President Trump performing within the margin of error, but outperforming the polls by 1% to 3%

In the event that President Trump gets re-elected it will be another sign that the Democratic Party have once again misjudged their candidate. Over the last 40 years, Democrats will turn out in force, in key swing states, for a "rock star" candidate who will sweep them off their feet (Bill Clinton and Obama). OTOH if they are presented with a less exciting candidate, Gore, Hillary, Dukakis, Kerry, then they'll stay at home.

Joe Biden, whose campaign was almost entirely "I may be old and bland but at least I'm not President Trump" is definitely in that latter category IMO.
 
The Don said:
Yup, as angrysoba points out, we're seeing exactly the same thing as happened last time around:

  • The polls generally narrowing significantly as polling approaches - which usually happens
  • Swing states changing even more than the national numbers in President Trump's favour
  • President Trump performing within the margin of error, but outperforming the polls by 1% to 3%

In the event that President Trump gets re-elected it will be another sign that the Democratic Party have once again misjudged their candidate. Over the last 40 years, Democrats will turn out in force, in key swing states, for a "rock star" candidate who will sweep them off their feet (Bill Clinton and Obama). OTOH if they are presented with a less exciting candidate, Gore, Hillary, Dukakis, Kerry, then they'll stay at home.

Joe Biden, whose campaign was almost entirely "I may be old and bland but at least I'm not President Trump" is definitely in that latter category IMO.
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But we're not seeing the same thing at all. Biden has a far bigger lead, nationally and in the swing states, than Clinton ever had. There's no comparison between the two election years. Trump might win, but it's disingenious to say that it's the same as in 2016.
 
The Don said:
Given that President Trump significantly outperformed the polls in swing states last time around, I'm tempted to believe the so called "skewed" polls AND give him the margin of error too.
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Trump mostly outperformed the 2016 polls because those polls incorrectly gave a large share to Johnson that ended up going to Trump. And because the poll adjustments did not account for education level.

The pollsters speculating "shy Trump" voters got the numbers right, but for the wrong reasons. Trump mostly succeeded on gaining Johnson polls. Subtract that, and there was no significant "shy Trump" voter contingent.
 
Delvo said:
Three cases of Trump rally people getting stranded in less than a week... was this happening before and just not getting talked about yet? Or did something change recently?
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From the social media post I read, if it was valid, it may have been because word started going around that the bus owners were getting stiffed, they weren't being paid. The other problem may have been with the bus operators (the drivers) objecting to people crowding onto buses and not wearing face masks. In many locales, bus operators have made it clear they feel very vulnerable and some have forced companies and transit agencies to enforce mandatory mask wearing. Regardless of politics, the bus operators may have been complaining about riders not wearing masks, the bus owners fearful they won't get paid.

I can see certain owners taking a page from the trump playbook and saying, 'Okay, we'll bring the people to the rally but unless we get paid we're not picking them up afterwards. You figure out how to get them home.'

Sounds like a typical trump operation.
 
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uke2se said:
But we're not seeing the same thing at all. Biden has a far bigger lead, nationally and in the swing states, than Clinton ever had. There's no comparison between the two election years. Trump might win, but it's disingenious to say that it's the same as in 2016.
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In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 3.7% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 8% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 2.6% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 6% up less than a month before the election.

I'd say that's similar enough

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 1% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 5% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 1.8% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 4% up less than a month before the election

I'd say that's similar enough too
 
Sherkeu said:
Conservative voters do not riot and loot urban areas. They mostly do not even live in them. The boarding up is obviously done against what we have seen all year in cites around the country.
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In a normal election, I'd probably agree with you, but this one is far from normal. We've never had one candidate preparing his supporters to refuse to accept the results of the vote, and also encouraging their violent tendencies.

And let's not forget that, this year, there have already been instances of people like the Boogaloo Boys trying to start things with false-flag attacks.
 
It's going to be a close race, we're not going to get a President tonight, though I have a feeling Trump is going to say he won and when it's all over Biden will have won and Trump is not going to go quietly into the night.

But perhaps the Republicans know this isn't going to be an easy election and that is one of the reasons they pushed through the Supreme Court Justice right before the election.
 
uke2se said:
Is this a defense mechanism on your part? Because there's nothing in the real world that indicates what you are saying.
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I am concerned as well.
Pennsylvania has been polling "Biden" for weeks now, I just don't see that as being accurate.
The region around Philly seems a lot more "Trump" enthused than even 2016.
Northeast Philly, and South Philly could even make the city of Philadelphia close (Northeast Philly alone has more residents than the entire population of Pittsburg)
I drove by a line of hundreds of voters waiting in line in Bucks county at 7:15 this morning.


I am hoping that the polls have it right in Pennsylvania- but there are a lot of indicators that they do not.
 
angrysoba said:
Well acted, but they aren't.

They really aren't.

Like I say, I am hoping for a Biden win but the store owners fear a Trump win because of what could happen to their stores if he does.
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The stores in my neighborhood are already boarded up for some different riots- so we are good :). Plus, the National Guard is in town too.
 
The Don said:
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 3.7% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 8% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 2.6% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 6% up less than a month before the election.

I'd say that's similar enough

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 1% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 5% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 1.8% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 4% up less than a month before the election

I'd say that's similar enough too
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Fivethirtyeight has Biden up 4.6% in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election. Predicted vote share is Biden + 4.7%

ETA: And Trump won Pennsylvania with 0.7%, not 1.2%
 
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I'm content (do I have a choice?) to wait and see what happens. Polling has shown a huge number of Americans say that, the pandemic plus the election -- with the first-time-ever fears that at least one of the candidates may not abide by the results -- have created stress levels that have impacted their mental/physical health.

I really fear for the United States if the wrong candidate wins. :(
 

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I can't believe I haven't done one of these yet this time around. The one for the previous Election was "yikesy", to say the least.
 

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