2020 Presidential Election

[Trebuchet]

I mean, I suppose it's natural for Toupee Fiasco to assume that Cory Booker would become secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and that "suburban women" would be terrified of the...um...handsome unmarried black guy who literally rescued a neighbor from a house fire, what with him being a colored.



We're discussing the clown who gave the HUD post to noted housing planner Benjamin Carson, almost certainly for that exact reason, after all.



personally, I have no clue if Booker would accept the job if offered -he's certainly qualified as a big-city mayor, and does have some good ideas, but he can also advance those and other ideas in the Senate.

I will be very disappointed if Biden appoints ANY sitting Senator. Leave them where they are most needed.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Yes, indeed. And let’s face it, Trump voters - at least stereotypically - are hardly a shy bunch of wallflowers.

One of the things that many people here said was that Trump will embolden racists to be more overt and showed figures saying there are more complaints about racist comments these days. If Trump is emboldening them so much why are the same people now declaring that they are shy and retiring?

Not a monolithic group in all respects, and one-on-one interactions involve social inhibitions. But emboldened as a group, indeed, planning kidnappings and -- to go by many a retarded lard on social media -- civil/race war.

 

[The Don]

Clinton under performed the polls within the margin of error.

True nationally, and I expect the same from Joe Biden. I expect Joe Biden to win the popular vote by a far greater margin than Hillary did.

If Biden under performs the polls within the margin of error, he's still ahead in the blue wall states by at least five points. Trump may have a really dedicated cult following but he also has a very angry country to contend with.

I have no science to back this up, but in swing states I think (fear ?) that there's a significant gap between what people say they're going to do and what they actually do.

Speaking from personal experience, it's very difficult to be a lifelong supporter (and in my case member and party activist) of one party and then to actually cast your vote for another party in an election. On two occasions I went into the polling booth fully intending to cast my vote for another party but ended up voting for the party I always voted for.

We seem to have a number of lifelong Republicans who say they're going to vote for Joe Biden. It's going to tough for them to actually do that - however well intentioned they are.

......and all of that excludes any post-election shenanigans which IMO no polling organisation or analyst can take into account because we have no idea how effective they may be.

 

[acbytesla]

Shy to pollsters. A big flag on their truck does not mean a person answers a survey.
A Trump voter is much less likely to respond honestly (or at all) to a political poll. From what I have seen, there are quite a few 'poll punkers' as well.

Trump constantly call the polls 'fake', unless he likes them, so this should not be any surprise to anyone. Polling is really hard to do this year, no matter how they think they have corrected it.

They'll wear Trump paraphernalia and hang Trump banners on their homes and pickup trucks, but won't tell a pollster who they are voting for?

This theory is ridiculous. I don't buy it for one second

 

[Andy_Ross]

People bellow out "lock him up!" about Joe Biden at Trump's rally in Bucks County, Pennsylvania

He calls Hunter Biden's (alleged) emails "the biggest story anywhere in the world"

Trump sounds sedated.

 

[Minoosh]

Totally ripping off The Beatles
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1322281472561192966?s=21

Lennon was being ironic, suggesting that such a devotion to a band was absurd.

 

[Minoosh]

I was so nervous of signing my drop-off ballot that my signature came out kind of strange looking - I almost threw the ballot out in favor of early voting, but it wasn't THAT weird, and my phone number is on the envelope.

Statistically one ballot isn't a huge deal. But it does bug me a little. This is a pretty swingy sort of place.

 

[acbytesla]

True nationally, and I expect the same from Joe Biden. I expect Joe Biden to win the popular vote by a far greater margin than Hillary did.

I have no science to back this up, but in swing states I think (fear ?) that there's a significant gap between what people say they're going to do and what they actually do.

Speaking from personal experience, it's very difficult to be a lifelong supporter (and in my case member and party activist) of one party and then to actually cast your vote for another party in an election. On two occasions I went into the polling booth fully intending to cast my vote for another party but ended up voting for the party I always voted for.

We seem to have a number of lifelong Republicans who say they're going to vote for Joe Biden. It's going to tough for them to actually do that - however well intentioned they are.
......and all of that excludes any post-election shenanigans which IMO no polling organisation or analyst can take into account because we have no idea how effective they may be.

I don't buy it. Whether you or I like it one bit, people are not voting for Joe Biden. They are voting AGAINST Trump. This is a referendum on Trump and Trump wouldn't have it any other way. I don't believe the Republicans who hate Trump can get themselves to vote for a man they despise regardless if whether he has a D or an R after his name.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump does not sound like a man anticipating a big victory, the audience in isn't really reacting as he drones on and on.

 

[The Atheist]

Ummm, nobody is saying "Biden will win".

Yeah they are. Me, for one, and here's another:

Thats why he will lose.

And money says he loses as well.

Paddy Power, the bookie, has Biden to win the electoral college - with a 48.5 handicap - at odds on. That's quite astonishing.

That means that most people think Trump will not just lose, but lose by 320 - 220 or worse.

He is ******* toast.

The only question remaining is what he does when he realises he's lost. Does he try to create armed rebellion? Does he refuse to accept the result and challenge it in court?* Does he storm out of the White House in a typical toddler tantrum, leaving Pence to transition?

Somehow, I don't see "waiting for Biden to kick him out in January" being a very viable option.


*I think this is incredibly unlikely. He doesn't have the money to pay lawyers and I don't believe any law firm would do it on credit.

 

[acbytesla]

Does he storm out of the White House in a typical toddler tantrum, leaving Pence to transition?

I'm good with this.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump claims that one of the people Jared Kushner enlisted to work on the country's ventilator problem showed up for work at the White House with roller skates on.

If someone in the pub was talking like this, I'd try to slide a couple stools down the bar as quickly as possible.

 

[Meadmaker]

They'll wear Trump paraphernalia and hang Trump banners on their homes and pickup trucks, but won't tell a pollster who they are voting for?

This theory is ridiculous. I don't buy it for one second

Today I read a story about what kind of alcoholic beverages people drink, and how that correlates with how they vote. (Biden wins among people who drink wine and liquor. Trump wins with teetotalers. Beer is a swing state.)

What TV shows people watch is correlated with voting patterns. What kind of cars people drive is correlated with voting patterns. What time people eat dinner is correlated with voting patterns. All sorts of behavioral characteristics are related to voting patterns.

Now, your cell phone rings. It's an unrecognized number. Do you answer it?

The answer is correlated with voting patterns.

 

[Sherkeu]

They'll wear Trump paraphernalia and hang Trump banners on their homes and pickup trucks, but won't tell a pollster who they are voting for?

This theory is ridiculous. I don't buy it for one second

Response rate percentages for all people are in the single digits as it is. It is just even less for the Trump side as they have more reluctance to participate with a pollster. To hear Trump tell it, polls = propaganda for the left.
I do not see what is so ridiculous about that.

In the end, it likely does not matter as turnout is the true key.
I think Trump will hold any state within 5 points (as of today). It's likely up to the rust belt states again to decide this election and Biden seems to have the advantage there, for now.

 

[Andy_Ross]

"There'll be no school, there'll be no graduations, there'll be no weddings, no Thanksgivings, no Christmas, no Easters, no Fourth of Julys. There'll be nothing. We'll be nothing."- Trump on what will happen if Biden wins

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump on his tax
"They have a story about taxes, I don't pay taxes. And I call my people, 'no, you pay many many millions of taxes, sir, but you prepay your taxes', that's worse than paying taxes. I say, why do we prepay so much? 'Because these are estimates when you're negotiating your taxes'"

 

[Sherkeu]

AP released a handy graphic about how the voting is done in each state. Early votes can be absentee, by mail, or in person. Oct 23 article here.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...
*I think this is incredibly unlikely. He doesn't have the money to pay lawyers and I don't believe any law firm would do it on credit.

Who says Trump has to hire these lawyers?

Center for Media and Democracy: Secretive Council for National Policy Closely Tied to Trump

That council would be ALEC. They are well funded by people like the Koch family. They are ecstatic with the pro-corporate make up of the SCOTUS. They've gotten all they wanted in Trump when it comes to slashing every environmental regulation that came across his desk.

They are funding every voter suppression tactic they can in swing states.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Nate Silver in his most recent podcast says he thinks the "shy Republican" hypothesis is basically rubbish. He thinks republicans might be shy about reasons to vote for Trump and rationalise away racism, or trolling the libs with ******** reasons
But not be shy about who they plan to vote for.

I think the "shy Republican" hypothesis had some merit in 2016. Trump was the crazy, outlandish candidate completely lacking moral values. I suspect some Republicans were shy to admit that they would vote for such a person, even though they would because the alternative was the arch-evil Hillary Clinton. But I think a lot of those reported to the pollsters as undecided rather than for Clinton. That meant the undecided vote may have gone more heavily for Trump that what would normally be expected.

I don't think that is the case in 2020. Trump is now the crazy President and not just some crazy guy. But there may still be a slight favor for Trump among the undecided. That group may include a lot of Republicans who hate Trump. Some may actually vote for Biden. Some may go third party. But when the pencil hits the ballot, I bet most most stick with their party and land on Trump.

 

[Meadmaker]

I don't think that is the case in 2020. Trump is now the crazy President and not just some crazy guy. But there may still be a slight favor for Trump among the undecided. That group may include a lot of Republicans who hate Trump. Some may actually vote for Biden. Some may go third party. But when the pencil hits the ballot, I bet most most stick with their party and land on Trump.

One thing that makes me think Biden will win is that I can't picture what sort of person who voted for Hillary in 2016 would vote for Trump in 2020. However, I can picture plenty of people who voted for Trump in 2016 but who will vote for Biden in 2020.

In terms of polling difficulty, though, what I see in 2020 is that poltical discussions ahve grown to be perceived as even more toxic than in 2016. I can see a whole lot of people just saying, "I never talk about politics with anyone". and sticking to it so much they won't talk to a pollster.