2020 Presidential Election

[Delvo]

I get a fair amount of US media on my Youtube feed, and it seems that 90%+ of the coverage of the US election features President Trump. Almost none of it features Joe Biden and I haven't seen anything of Kamala Harris for days.

Three things there...

•YouTube seems to have a slight tendency to push to the right (just a little bit)

•News sources love spectacle, and he's putting on a spectacle for them

•It's helping Biden, not Trump. Remember that Biden is the Democrat nobody actually wanted. The campaign for him against other Democrats was essentially based on the unofficial slogan "Settle for Biden" and another round of the establishment Democrats' usual "but being Republican is the only way to ever beat a Republican!!!!!!1!1!!!" fear-mongering (even though that general principle was the exact opposite of what had ever really happened before). The media seldom admit this, but they do know it, which means if they're going to strategize then their strategy needs to be based on it. And what do you do to help a candidate nobody wanted? Focus on the enemy you want them to vote against, and don't let the problem of who that means voting for linger on their minds too much. As I said when it was Hillary & Trump, if you want people to vote against Joffrey, you don't keep reminding them that the opponent is Bælish; you just treat it entirely as a matter of ousting Joffrey alone. This time the opponent is more of a Pycell instead of a Bælish, but the same principle still applies.

Yes I do, simple name recognition seems to be a factor for the lowest information voters.

That applies to elections where people have paid no attention before and literally don't know anything about the candidates except that they've heard one name somewhere before and not the other. The Presidency is not that kind of election.

 

[JoeMorgue]

So what kind of turn out are we going to actually see on Tuesday, at least in the states where early voting is even an option. Texas has already voted more than it did in 2016 and from what I'm hearing other states aren't that far behind.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Seems like many mail ballots are not filled correctly. Would be sad if Trump won because of that.

 

[theprestige]

Octogenarian, white, male, multi-millionaire, conservative supports Trump - quelle surprise

I'm sure that endorsement will really make a difference with the under-35 demographic.

I'm pretty sure more people are divided over whether sports reporters should be offering political commentary, than are divided over Nicklaus' endorsement of Trump.

 

[Meadmaker]

So what kind of turn out are we going to actually see on Tuesday, at least in the states where early voting is even an option. Texas has already voted more than it did in 2016 and from what I'm hearing other states aren't that far behind.

We're just in bizarre territory. I hope what it means is that there will be massive voter turnout overall.

And I'm keeping an eye on weather maps. It's possible that Hurricane Eta will be making landfall on election day. (There aren't any official forecast tracks yet, and it isn't certain the the current system will develop into a named storm, but it's looking more likely. It might not make landfall by Tuesday though, and maybe not in the US.)

 

[kookbreaker]

...

Okay, I'm going to say something that surprises even me.

takes a breath

Trump is correct in laying the blame for Flint's water supply at the feet of Rick Snyder, it was ultimately his push against local rule, and his adviser's malfeasence, that led to the water issue, as well as many of the resulting health problems.

Now, there are plenty of places in the US where the water supply is absolutely disgusting, and has been going back for decades, which is something Biden should work on when he's president. But I will give him that one thing.

I don't think Trump was asked to fix it, let alone did he do anything to actually fix it, however.

 

[Horatius]

So what kind of turn out are we going to actually see on Tuesday, at least in the states where early voting is even an option. Texas has already voted more than it did in 2016 and from what I'm hearing other states aren't that far behind.

You can see how many ballots have already be cast on this site:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html


By my count, there are 12 states where the percentage of votes already received as compared to the total number of votes in 2016 is over 80%. That's pretty huge. They note that "Nationally, voters have cast 60.9% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election."

 

[theprestige]

Seems like many mail ballots are not filled correctly. Would be sad if Trump won because of that.

Would be sad if anyone won because of that. Or not. I mean, some percentage of ballots are always going to be improperly filled out. It would be sad if that percentage is very large. Otherwise...

... Really, the race would have to be very close, for spoiled ballots to make a difference. A race that close, every little thing can make a difference. Is that sad? Maybe. A nation that evenly divided doesn't seem to be a happy thing. On the other hand, a nation where a large majority are happy on one side of the political spectrum probably doesn't mean happy things for the minority on the other side. Everybody likes democracy until they're on the losing end of majority rule.

 

[Horatius]

I don't think Trump was asked to fix it, let alone did he do anything to actually fix it, however.

Well, when your plan is to blame everyone else for all the problems in the world, you're eventually going to blame the right person, just by accident.

 

[theprestige]

I don't think Trump was asked to fix it, let alone did he do anything to actually fix it, however.

Let alone it's not actually his problem to fix. Michigan has a democratically elected government for a reason. Michigan levies its own taxes for a reason.

 

[theprestige]

Well, when your plan is to blame everyone else for all the problems in the world, you're eventually going to blame the right person, just by accident.

To be fair, the vast majority of the problems in the world were caused by other people and were already going on before he took office.

 

[Meadmaker]

Would be sad if anyone won because of that. Or not. I mean, some percentage of ballots are always going to be improperly filled out. It would be sad if that percentage is very large. Otherwise...

... Really, the race would have to be very close, for spoiled ballots to make a difference. A race that close, every little thing can make a difference. Is that sad? Maybe. A nation that evenly divided doesn't seem to be a happy thing. On the other hand, a nation where a large majority are happy on one side of the political spectrum probably doesn't mean happy things for the minority on the other side. Everybody likes democracy until they're on the losing end of majority rule.

The nightmare scenario, that is more than just sad, would be if a significant percentage of mail in ballots were spoiled, and not equally for both candidates. If it results in a case where one candidate wins the official count, but it is painfully obvious that the other candidate won the "real" count, i.e. they obviously intended to vote for one candidate, but their vote wasn't counted.

And, realistically, based on voting patterns, that would mean a case where Biden gets more votes, but Trump is declared the winner.

Such a result would mean more than the "wrong" guy getting elected. It would undermine faith in American democracy, and that would be a very big deal.

However, that's all hypothetical. I don't expect it to happen. I just fear that it might happen.

 

[The Don]

You can see how many ballots have already be cast on this site:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html


By my count, there are 12 states where the percentage of votes already received as compared to the total number of votes in 2016 is over 80%. That's pretty huge. They note that "Nationally, voters have cast 60.9% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election."

In interestingly wide distribution of early voters there. I presume a lot of it down to whether people can easily vote by mail.

Alabama and Mississippi have just over 10% early voting. I guess that we'll see the usual long lines in minority districts.

 

[The Don]

The nightmare scenario, that is more than just sad, would be if a significant percentage of mail in ballots were spoiled, and not equally for both candidates. If it results in a case where one candidate wins the official count, but it is painfully obvious that the other candidate won the "real" count, i.e. they obviously intended to vote for one candidate, but their vote wasn't counted.

And, realistically, based on voting patterns, that would mean a case where Biden gets more votes, but Trump is declared the winner.

Such a result would mean more than the "wrong" guy getting elected. It would undermine faith in American democracy, and that would be a very big deal.

However, that's all hypothetical. I don't expect it to happen. I just fear that it might happen.

I do.

In a few swing states where this is the only way the GOP can win.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I'm still seeing at least an attempt at just bypassing the popular vote entirely and Trump going right after the actual Electors, up to and including him just straight up ordering states with Republican state legislatures to use electors who will vote for him regardless of the popular vote in that state, as he already said he intends to and which the Supreme Court, given recent "The states decide how they vote, period" decisions from them, will probably let him do.

To what degree it will be successful will have to wait for him to actually try it.

 

[kookbreaker]

Let alone it's not actually his problem to fix. Michigan has a democratically elected government for a reason. Michigan levies its own taxes for a reason.

Yet Trump claims he was asked to fix it.

Trump did meet with the mayor, so there was that. But then he did little besides blame NAFTA for GM leaving Flint. Then he retweeted psycho-conservative articles that claimed the state relief money was misspent.

 

[Horatius]

I'm still seeing at least an attempt at just bypassing the popular vote entirely and Trump going right after the actual Electors, up to and including him just straight up ordering states with Republican state legislatures to use electors who will vote for him regardless of the popular vote in that state, as he already said he intends to and which the Supreme Court, given recent "The states decide how they vote, period" decisions from them, will probably let him do.

To what degree it will be successful will have to wait for him to actually try it.

I could see him trying, and his cronies allowing, such a naked grab of power if it was a matter of one swing state determining the winner, and the count in that state was close enough (or could be made to look close enough). They could console themselves with the fantasy that they were "saving democracy" in that one state, and thus in the whole US.

But if they had to pull the same stunt in several states to win the EC, I still hold out hope that even his flunkies would balk at something so blatant. Particularly if some of those "swing states" only look "close" when you tilt your head and squint.

 

[phiwum]

Don't some other states allow late arrival of ballots if postmarked in time? Seems they don't see some invisible clause in the Constitution forbidding this.

Far as I can tell, the ruling isn't that a state may not count late arriving ballots. It's that an executive official can't change the law singlehandedly. From a local CBS report:

“However well-intentioned and appropriate from a policy perspective in the context of a pandemic during a presidential election, it is not the province of a state executive official to re-write the state’s election code, at least as it pertains to selection of presidential electors,” the ruling reads.

A brief (very brief) search brings up the following law:

5 Return your ballot by Election Day to the address on the signature envelope

You have three options:
• Send it so it arrives by Election Day, using U.S. mail or a package delivery service,
• Deliver it in person by 8:00 p.m. on Election Day, or
• Ask someone to deliver it by 8:00 p.m. on Election Day.
This person cannot deliver more than 3 ballots.

If you have questions, please call (...) ...-....

That's the law in Minnesota. If I understand correctly, the fella in charge of elections wanted to make an exception this year, but he hasn't the authority. I don't think the court's opinion is unreasonable. Save the late ballots and if necessary, the problem will be revisited.

 

[pgwenthold]

My take: this is good news.

The new voters coming out this time are not Trumpets who sat out 2016. Trump's key to winning in that election was based on a surge of voters coming out of the shadows in unexpectedly high numbers. There aren't a bunch of new Trump voters this time.

 

[Mumbles]

I don't think Trump was asked to fix it, let alone did he do anything to actually fix it, however.

breathes easier

Well of course not, and he never will, since it disproportionally affects black and Native Americans, and dolt 45 is a white supremacist. I'm just saying that he got something right for once.