• Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more

2020 Presidential Election

Status
Not open for further replies.
I was saying the same, and getting the same response 4 years ago :(

I'd love to be wrong this time around.

Well, 538's podcast from Monday (I think) was on the topic and saying that 2016 is a single data point, which is not really a good basis for a forecast.

But if you must compare, 538 also gave Trump at least twice as much chance then as they do this time round.
 
I think we're all talking around each other a bit in the whole "How optimistic/pessimistic should we be?" meta-debate.

Right now all the signs, even accounting for what happened in 2016, point to a strong likelihood, not certainty, of a solid Democrat win (I wouldn't go so far as to say landslide but that's a quibble) in November..

But all the signs also point to Trump doing everything he can to fight, deny, invalidate, and taint the results of this election and who within a metaphysical certainty will, at best, make the transition harder than it has any need to be or even outright deny it.

These are not contrary points of view that create a paradox if you hold both of them.

Again all the pegs fall neatly into all the holes if we just remember that Biden and Trump aren't using the same definition "win" when they talk about winning.
 
Last edited:
Voters get threats from abroad.
Washington — Dozens of voters in a heavily Democratic county in Florida and across several states reported receiving emails on Thursday purporting to come from a right-wing group threatening to "come after" them unless they vote for President Trump.

But an examination of the messages, which are now under investigation by state and federal authorities, shows they were sent via servers located overseas, raising questions about their origin amid concerns about voter intimidation just two weeks before Election Day.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elec...rvers/ar-BB1aefhs?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=mailsignout
 
As long as they're not returned, what's the problem ?

There isn't one. It's like claiming a blank check is check fraud. This would have to have a nothing sesame seed bun, nothing beef patty, nothing pickles, nothing lettuce, nothing tomatoes, nothing slice of American cheese, and nothing special sauce added to it to even get to a level of "Nothing Burger."

But Trump's last hope is convincing a tipping point of his followers of a rigged election.
 
Well, 538's podcast from Monday (I think) was on the topic and saying that 2016 is a single data point, which is not really a good basis for a forecast.

But if you must compare, 538 also gave Trump at least twice as much chance then as they do this time round.

Actually, on 21 October 2016, fivethirtyeight.com were giving Donald Trump a 13.5% chance of election. This increased steadily over the next two weeks, peaked at 35% on November 6th before subsiding to just under 30%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

In other words, he's about where he was at this stage in 2016 :(
 
Actually, on 21 October 2016, fivethirtyeight.com were giving Donald Trump a 13.5% chance of election. This increased steadily over the next two weeks, peaked at 35% on November 6th before subsiding to just under 30%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

In other words, he's about where he was at this stage in 2016 :(
The polls were extremely swingy in 2016. No one liked either candidate much, it was a race to the bottom.

The same is not the case this year.
 
Actually, on 21 October 2016, fivethirtyeight.com were giving Donald Trump a 13.5% chance of election. This increased steadily over the next two weeks, peaked at 35% on November 6th before subsiding to just under 30%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

In other words, he's about where he was at this stage in 2016 :(
Not really. Ratings are far more steady this time, with few undecided voters, while the graphs in 2016 looked like a roller coaster ride. People have far more positive opinions overall of Biden than they did of Clinton, and are even more negative towards Trump than they were in 2016. Voter turnout of Biden voters is already proving to be much higher than they were for Clinton. I also highly doubt there will be any October surprises that could hurt Biden, and either way, voters seem to have made up their minds by now anyway.

Also, there's another debate for Trump to fudge or skip out on. This might also hurt his approval rating.
 
Actually, on 21 October 2016, fivethirtyeight.com were giving Donald Trump a 13.5% chance of election. This increased steadily over the next two weeks, peaked at 35% on November 6th before subsiding to just under 30%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

In other words, he's about where he was at this stage in 2016 :(

The polls were extremely swingy in 2016. No one liked either candidate much, it was a race to the bottom.

The same is not the case this year.

Not really. Ratings are far more steady this time, with few undecided voters, while the graphs in 2016 looked like a roller coaster ride. People have far more positive opinions overall of Biden than they did of Clinton, and are even more negative towards Trump than they were in 2016. Voter turnout of Biden voters is already proving to be much higher than they were for Clinton. I also highly doubt there will be any October surprises that could hurt Biden, and either way, voters seem to have made up their minds by now anyway.

Also, there's another debate for Trump to fudge or skip out on. This might also hurt his approval rating.

Yes, there are a lot of differences. Again, this is the point that they made that 2016 election is a single data point. It is not something that you can use to simply make an accurate prediction about a completely different election.

Indeed, Clinton was unpopular, the populist backlash against establishment candidates gave a lot of people the "let's just swing the wrecking ball and see what happens" mentality. Now we know what happens when the wrecking ball is allowed to swing back and forth and a lot of people don't like it very much. Trump has not been above 32% since 538 measured the chances of victory in this race whereas in 2016 he was going up and down hitting the 40s and even going ahead.

Trump's been under 20% for some time now.

Yes, it is true that Trump might try to stage some outlandish coup of some kind, or try to get a cadre of shameless judges together but that still assumes that they really think it is worth it. Lots of politicians lose and just put up with it. Trump is different because he's a thin-skinned narcissist. Do people like McConnel and Lindsay Graham actually want to take a literal bullet for him? Even if they did, it would just be a waste of two bullets and the coup would be over.
 
I just saw that Limbaugh's lung cancer is fatal. Let's hope he passes before November 3rd. I guess Florida is going to get a little bit bluer. Nice of him to die in a swing state, the stupid junkie ****.
It's a matter of months rather than weeks. He is still doing his radio show on those days he doesn't have chemo.
 
Also, there's another debate for Trump to fudge or skip out on. This might also hurt his approval rating.
The rules they've set up this time to make the debate more bearable to watch also have the side effect of helping Trump. His tendency to interrupt & attack was what was bad for him last time, and this time he'll get muted, meaning people won't be as exposed to his true behavior.

But it's probably too little too late.
 
Do people like McConnel and Lindsay Graham actually want to take a literal bullet for him? Even if they did, it would just be a waste of two bullets and the coup would be over.

Any steps that President Trump might take to have postal ballots rejected, ballots from certain districts subjected to extra scrutiny or challenge the results of the election in court would also benefit GOP Senate and House candidates in close races.

This is in their interest nearly as much as it is in President Trump's.
 
I hate to say it, but the world will be better off without him. Hopefully no one will take his place.
They will replace him but ratings will plummet. Whatever Republican runs in the next election will not have nearly so much help.
 
Do people like McConnel and Lindsay Graham actually want to take a literal bullet for him?

I don't know. I don't think McConnell and Graham know, at least not exactly.

Trump's done the one thing that modern America can't handle. He's introduced ambiguity into their perfectly balanced game.

Politicians, especially people like McConnell who have been in the game for 60 some odd years now, have a huge amount of their personal identity in the idea that they have perfected "the game."

The Republicans know what the Democrats are going to do, the Democrats know what the Republicans are going to do, the Republicans know that the Democrats know what they going to do, the Democrats know that the Republicans know what they are going to do. The Democrats know that the Republicans know that they know what they are going to.... and so forth and so on up to infinity and down to the Planck.

They had all gotten so ******* comfortable in politics being this shadow theater wizards duel where both sides knew the other side so well that the only motion that was possible where just minor ebbs and flows in the margins that they have absolutely no idea, not even like the most basic intellectual structure built up to have an idea, of how to deal with someone like Trump.

Trump is the political Guns of August, that moment when you think you know the battlefield so well you screw yourself over hard by being so goddamn cocksure of yourself that you think you can put plans into motion 10 steps out because you know the enemy as well as you know yourself.

McConnell is right now in a place a twat donkey like McConnell can't stand being, not in a place to read the room. If Trump wins like a traditional politician, he just keeps his nose completely up Trump's hind end and reaps the rewards, no problem. If Trump loses McConnell probably has as many Golden Parachutes as Elton John has fancy sunglasses, again no problem. As Joker said nobody panics because "It's all part of the plan."

But not knowing if the Troll In Chief is going to declare war on the Ottoman Empire or nominate his horse to the Praetorian Guard depending on what the voices in his head tell him over his breakfast in the morning, being forced to deal with the same level of insane unpredictability the rest of us have been having to deal with is probably driving him insane, which I have no problem with and welcome other than the fact that means we can't predict what McConnell, who let us not forget has massive political power until Jan of next year at the earliest, is going to do either.

McConnell, Graham, the rest of the Republicans are (at best when they aren't just being willing collaborators and enablers) scared cornered animals with nothing to lose.
 
Last edited:
Trump Tweets

Your 401k’s will crash with Biden. Massive Biden Tax and Regulation increases will destroy all that you have built! Additionally, 180 Million People will lose their Private Healthcare Plans.
 
Wall Street could call the 2020 election before the media does

New York (CNN Business)With an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots to count, news organizations will probably exercise extreme caution before declaring a winner on the night of the election. Wall Street, on the other hand, isn't known for its patience.

Investors will be closely scrutinizing the results from pivotal battleground states, especially ones on the East Coast that got a head start counting ballots.

Although TV networks may not have enough confidence in the immediate hours after polls close to announce whether President Donald Trump has been reelected, the writing may already be on the wall in financial markets.

"On election night, I think it is very likely the market declares the winner before the news networks," Ed Mills, policy analyst at Raymond James, told CNN Business.

CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/investing/wall-street-election-trump-biden/index.html
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom