2020 Presidential Election

[SezMe]

The chances of a tie are highly unlikely. I'm not losing any sleep over it.

Agreed, but it is just one more aspect of voting in this country that needs to be fixed when the Dems get control of the government.

 

[SezMe]

I think Trump overplayed his hand. His unique- I'm not a politician, I'm a successful businessman- schtick wore off after 4 years for an awful lot of people. His pathological lying, narcissism, and hateful, bigoted, bullying, fear mongering and childish antics is what they see. But more than anything, his horrific handling of the coronavirus epidemic has revealed his complete incompetence and unsuitability for the position of POTUS. Many of his former subjects have come to realize that the emperor has no clothes.

This prompts me to wonder .... Suppose we could replay 2020 with but one difference: Covei-19 doesn't happen. Does Trump sail to victory in that scenario? My answer would be that he would win but it would be *very* close.

 

[dudalb]

Absolutely. Trump's reaction to BLM, Charlottesville, the Proud Bois, etc. has really motivated black voters.

Though Trump's past behavior shoul dhave told them what to exprct.
B

 

[dudalb]

New format for the upcoming debate:

From: CTV News
Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. President Donald Trump will have their microphones muted during portions of the second and final presidential debate on Thursday night, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Monday...The change is sure to anger the Trump and his campaign, who have signalled that any changes to the procedures will be unacceptable to them....

I am a bit surprised that they are going ahead with an in-person debate. (I know Trump has already had Covid-19 and probably wouldn't be infectious himself, but there are probably many Trump minions who might have been infected since then who might be in attendance.)

Now we will just have to see if Stubby McBonespurs drops out.

Trump wold have been dropped from any self respecting High School or College Debate team a long time ago.
Trump campiagn says Trump is going to bring up Hunter Biden as his main topic in the debate. Could not think of a dumber strategy.

 

[Craig4]

New format for the upcoming debate:

From: CTV News
Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. President Donald Trump will have their microphones muted during portions of the second and final presidential debate on Thursday night, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Monday...The change is sure to anger the Trump and his campaign, who have signalled that any changes to the procedures will be unacceptable to them....

I am a bit surprised that they are going ahead with an in-person debate. (I know Trump has already had Covid-19 and probably wouldn't be infectious himself, but there are probably many Trump minions who might have been infected since then who might be in attendance.)

Now we will just have to see if Stubby McBonespurs drops out.

I will be really surprised if Trump agrees to this. He looked like a bully in the first debate and he'll look like an unhinged lunatic unintelligibly ranting with his mic off.

 

[JoeMorgue]

The chances of a tie are highly unlikely. I'm not losing any sleep over it.

Agreed, but it is just one more aspect of voting in this country that needs to be fixed when the Dems get control of the government.

Let's not forget the House (voting as states) picking the President doesn't just happen if there is a 269 to 269 EC college tie. It also happens if there are more than 2 viable candidates and none of them get to 269 EC votes. If 3rd party or independent candidates start gaining traction this could happen and the results could even be more lopsided than the EC/Popular vote.

John Quincy Adams served as the President despite losing both the EC and Popular vote by double-digit margins to Andrew Jackson.

 

[Craig4]

Trump wold have been dropped from any self respecting High School or College Debate team a long time ago.
Trump campiagn says Trump is going to bring up Hunter Biden as his main topic in the debate. Could not think of a dumber strategy.

The laptop story is a giant "No one cares" event. It has no traction.

Considering what Trump's nits who grew into lice have been up to, bringing up Hunter would be the definition of living in a glass house and throwing stones.

The Biden camp needs to get "Slayer Pete" out ahead of this and poison what there is of Trump's well on this topic.

 

[Aridas]

The laptop story is a giant "No one cares" event. It has no traction.

Considering what Trump's nits who grew into lice have been up to, bringing up Hunter would be the definition of living in a glass house and throwing stones.

The Biden camp needs to get "Slayer Pete" out ahead of this and poison what there is of Trump's well on this topic.

Just to put this out there - poisoning the well is both bad (and as a fallacy, should not be invoked) and probably not the concept that you are aiming at. Inoculation, on the other hand, probably is the concept you are interested in invoking. The laptop story sure looks like a load of steaming turd, in and of itself, made all the more untrustworthy by the modus operandi of the people involved.

 

[Meadmaker]

The laptop story is a giant "No one cares" event. It has no traction.

Four years ago, I said that about Hillary's emails.

That story shouldn't have had traction, but it did.

I was listening to some right wing yappers tonight (Jay Sekulow show(sp?)), and they were playing the laptop story in a really big way. I hope it's just their desperation "Hail, Mary" call at the last minute. There's two weeks to go. We'll see what comes of it. It seems like a nothingburger to me, but.....

 

[acbytesla]

Four years ago, I said that about Hillary's emails.

That story shouldn't have had traction, but it did.

I was listening to some right wing yappers tonight (Jay Sekulow show(sp?)), and they were playing the laptop story in a really big way. I hope it's just their desperation "Hail, Mary" call at the last minute. There's two weeks to go. We'll see what comes of it. It seems like a nothingburger to me, but.....

I don't think they compare. The Hillary email story went on and on and on for 16 momths. The mainstream press went on an and on and on about Hillary's emails without being pushed in any way. In contrast. Outside of the right wing media, the laptop story has received little to no traction. If anything, it's hard to even look at this story without noticing how these people got access to the laptop.

In a way, the fact that the media doesn't care is Trump's fault. Trump has caused both the press and the public to become blase to scandal. Let's say that Biden did use his influence to help his son increase his income. How is that any worse than the avalanche of stories of Trump using his own office to do the same thing?

I don't see this story pushing COVID out of the way. At the present rate by election day a quarter of a million people will have died.

 

[surrogate]

Trump wold have been dropped from any self respecting High School or College Debate team a long time ago.
Trump campiagn says Trump is going to bring up Hunter Biden as his main topic in the debate. Could not think of a dumber strategy.

Biden should just respond "Fake News" and nothing else every time Trump brings it up.

 

[Meadmaker]

I don't see this story pushing COVID out of the way.

Me neither.

But I'm painfully aware that I'm in a news bubble. My main source of news is google news, but with Fox, NYT, and WaPo disabled. That means I get a lot of CNN, which is heavily anti-Trump. Google news in general uses a lot of sources heavily anti-Trump. They have Fox News, but I disable that one.

Then there's the Drudge Report. If you haven't looked at it lately, you might instantly think, "Right wing!". It isn't. It's extremely anti-Trump these days. i don't know what happened, but they are just intensely ready to print anything that makes Trump look bad.

In a way, that's a great sign. If Drudge turned against him, it probably means a lot have turned against him.

And finally, there's right here. This isn't exactly a representative cross section of the American electorate.

Four years ago, I was driving to and from work, and listening to right wing yappers on the way. That was a major contributing factor to what gave me pause on election day. They didn't sound like they were heading for defeat. Now, I hardly ever drive, so I don't hear them, but it means I lose a major source of "other side" spin on the news. My sources just aren't balanced.

On the other hand, I do occasionally check out townhall.com, and if that's the best the right wing can do, Biden's in good shape. They seem pretty desperate over there.

Anyway, in summary, I think you're right, but I won't be truly happy until I see Pennsylvania in blue.

 

[Delvo]

Enough Republicans are far enough into "Run away! Run away!" mode that I figure an electoral tie (which means several million more votes for Biden) going to the House of Representatives still results in a Biden win even with the one-vote-per-state rule.

 

[Aridas]

Then there's the Drudge Report. If you haven't looked at it lately, you might instantly think, "Right wing!". It isn't. It's extremely anti-Trump these days. i don't know what happened, but they are just intensely ready to print anything that makes Trump look bad.

Just to poke at this, too - right-wingers certainly can be extremely anti-Trump. Much like right-wing white supremacists, right-wing jihadists, and conservatives can be rather hostile to each other.

Enough Republicans are far enough into "Run away! Run away!" mode that I figure an electoral tie (which means several million more votes for Biden) going to the House of Representatives still results in a Biden win even with the one-vote-per-state rule.

I wouldn't count on it. It might be worth remembering how shameless those same Republican politicians are.

 

[The Atheist]

It's from National Review, and it's a pro-Trump piece.

Can be safely ignored.

I've noticed the few Trumpist sites left are all pulling every trick, lie and misdirection they can to try and build so momentum as the gap continues to widen.

Which segues nicely into a limerick!

The polls continue to widen.
It's a cakewalk for Biden.
Trump's losing his mind,
His christians and kind,
And he knows he's in for a hidin'.

 

[Meadmaker]

Can be safely ignored.

Well, sort of.

I wouldn't take the main point of the article seriously. In other words, the thrust of the article is that there is one poll that shows Trump ahead, and that's the poll everyone should pay attention to. I don't buy that. As I said, though, that isn't the reason I was posting the article.

The article talks about the different methods that various pollsters use to try to get their results, and the difficulties encountered. it talks about how to handle people who won't talk to pollsters, and how to estimate the actual vote totals. It talks about how some pollsters "weight" certain responses to compensate for non-responders.

Basically, for people who have a rather outdated notion of what a poll is, the article might have some information that some people find interesting. Some people think that a poll consists of calling N people, asking them how they will vote, and publishing the answers. Once upon a time, that was true, but it isn't today. And I'm sure there are even better, more informative, articles on the subject available, but I would have to google for those. This is one that I happened to be reading, and happened to cover some of the same material that had been a topic of conversation in this thread a few days ago.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

But who would be Veep? It would presumably have to not include Pence or Harris, right? Would it just be next in line of succession?

If nobody gets 270 electoral votes, the House elects the President and the Senate elects the Vice-President. They have to pick from the top two finishers in the electoral vote.

The Senate would elect Pence or Harris depending on how the Senate turns out.

We could Biden/Pence. If Biden dies, Pence would become President and could appoint Trump as VP. After 2022, Pence could quit and Trump would become President again and be eligible to run again in 2024!

We could get Trump/Harris. If Trump dies, Harris would become President and could appoint Biden as VP (no term limits on VP). So we could end up with Harris/Biden!

Or members of the Electoral College knowing the make up of the new Congress could see that Democrats will have 26 states in the House but Republicans will control the Senate. Republican members of the Electoral College could get together and agree to vote for Pence as President and Trump as Vice-President knowing that the Senate will elect Trump as VP. So we could end up with Biden/Trump!

 

[The Great Zaganza]

So what is the Narrative for a Trump win?

Are there still huge pools of untapped undecided voters?
Does everyone lie and votes Trump but tells pollsters that they vote Biden?

or will it be a case of Blue Voters being really bad at using mail-in ballots or having voting ID?

I just don't see what scenario would make me believe that Trump won fair&square.

 

[The Don]

So what is the Narrative for a Trump win?

Are there still huge pools of untapped undecided voters?
Does everyone lie and votes Trump but tells pollsters that they vote Biden?

or will it be a case of Blue Voters being really bad at using mail-in ballots or having voting ID?

I just don't see what scenario would make me believe that Trump won fair&square.

If President Trump really does have just over 40% support then in order to win he needs to ensure that a significantly higher proportion of his supporters turn out to vote for him than of the 50%-55% who support Biden.

75% of 40% is greater than 50% of 55%.

It only really matters in the key swing states but there are various ways this could be done.

• Make sure that his own supporters are very highly motivated to turn out to vote - ramp up the fear
• Try to dissuade Biden voters from turning out - not exactly sure how to do this, a bit of over-confidence combined with making people feel that the electoral process is broken ?
• Make it as difficult for the wrong sort of people to vote, closed and slow polls, armed "election observers", Voter ID and so on
• Make it as difficult as possible for the wrong sort of people to have their vote counted

There are also a lot of people who will, when faced with the ballot, go against their better judgement and vote GOP because that's what they do - the number of people like this should not be underestimated

 

[Stacyhs]

This prompts me to wonder .... Suppose we could replay 2020 with but one difference: Covei-19 doesn't happen. Does Trump sail to victory in that scenario? My answer would be that he would win but it would be *very* close.

He might win but I think it would be very, very close.

ETA: After watching those women in PA who voted for Trump but are not voting for him now, most of them were Republicans. It wasn't just Covid that changed their minds. It was his lying, his bullying and his racism, too. I think a lot of non-base Republicans, especially educated white women, have had enough of him. They might not have voted for Biden, but they may have not voted at all or written in another name.