Cont: Biden for President? Pt 2

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Polling 2016 and now
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/

Not mentioned in the article is Jill Stein. Hillary lost the rust belt states by the amount of votes given to Jill Stein.

Should it have been?

Did the Greens perform unusually well in 2016? Is there any evidence that 3rd party voting was more of a factor in this election than it ever is? Pointing at the normal amount of people voting Green smacks of special pleading for people not willing to admit that HRC just ran a poor campaign and that people don't really like her that much as a politician.

The Libertarian party outperformed the Greens (3% vs 1%) and it seems likely that these right wing voters would have been more likely to vote Trump if 3rd party was not an option. The elimination of 3rd party likely would have only increased Trump's lead, not narrow it.
 
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The series of Trump tweets really should all be moved to the thread about his mental condition.

It will be interesting, from a psychological point of view, to see what he does once he's out, and what the worst of his followers do. I have little doubt that he'll continue the "rallies", probably at first whining & ranting about having been kicked out but then later trying to act like it never happened, as if he were still there. And of course the media will keep covering that more than it covers what the actual government is doing. But then what else from there? Audiences becoming anarchist rabbles going around committing random attacks & vandalism like they pretended the left was doing not long ago? Slowly dwindling audience size as the extremists start realizing they're in the same position as Germany post-Hitler and need to figure out how to pretend there was no connection between them and him if they're ever to be taken seriously by anybody again? Rallies located at, or marching to, government buildings to besiege so they can feel more like they're accomplishing something instead of just commiserating over the fact that they didn't? The cult finds a new leader to transfer to? And what about Trump himself? He's falling apart in a way that looks like a cult leader heading toward the cult's mass suicide, but nothing about the doctrine that he and his cult have been spouting seems to indicate that that's where this is going, at least not for most of them even if he does it himself. But I wouldn't be surprised by a few public protest/rally/march events by his cultists with a bunch of Kim-Jung-Il-like public wailing about the country's horrible loss and demands for the greatest memorial ever.


When he loses, Trump will want to continue the rallies. He craves the applause. Remember, after taking office in 2017 he almost immediately set up a 2020 campaign so that he could start "campaigning" again. He had no interest in actually governing.

So I expect upon a loss, Trump will immediately set up a 2024 campaign regardless if he actually wants to run again or not. As a private citizen, to hold a rally he would have to pay for the venue, security, etc. Or he could charge an admittance fee, but that would reduce his already dwindling audience. So by setting up a campaign, he can solicit donations and continue with his shtick and not put up any money out of pocket.
 
So I expect upon a loss, Trump will immediately set up a 2024 campaign regardless if he actually wants to run again or not. As a private citizen, to hold a rally he would have to pay for the venue, security, etc.
Don't politicians have to pay for that stuff anyways?

Wasn't there a story a few years back where cities were trying to sue stubby Mcbonespurs after his campaign failed to compensate the city for the extra policing that they needed to work his campaign rallies?



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Don't politicians have to pay for that stuff anyways?

Wasn't there a story a few years back where cities were trying to sue stubby Mcbonespurs after his campaign failed to compensate the city for the extra policing that they needed to work his campaign rallies?

And know Jacksonville and the GOP have already started legal slap fighting over the pulled GOP Convention here.
 
Should it have been?

Did the Greens perform unusually well in 2016? Is there any evidence that 3rd party voting was more of a factor in this election than it ever is? Pointing at the normal amount of people voting Green smacks of special pleading for people not willing to admit that HRC just ran a poor campaign and that people don't really like her that much as a politician.

The Libertarian party outperformed the Greens (3% vs 1%) and it seems likely that these right wing voters would have been more likely to vote Trump if 3rd party was not an option. The elimination of 3rd party likely would have only increased Trump's lead, not narrow it.

It was mostly the "we don't like Hillary, she has too much baggage" factor. Trump was repulsive, so vote for Stein who they barely knew.
 
When he loses, Trump will want to continue the rallies. He craves the applause. Remember, after taking office in 2017 he almost immediately set up a 2020 campaign so that he could start "campaigning" again. He had no interest in actually governing.

So I expect upon a loss, Trump will immediately set up a 2024 campaign regardless if he actually wants to run again or not. As a private citizen, to hold a rally he would have to pay for the venue, security, etc. Or he could charge an admittance fee, but that would reduce his already dwindling audience. So by setting up a campaign, he can solicit donations and continue with his shtick and not put up any money out of pocket.
Maybe he can just take a piece of The Wall and set up shop there. Buy a nearby hotel. The Trump stand up will be free if you stay at his hotel. His fans will need to drive or fly there.
 
TIwbded.jpg
 
NYP is real journalism?


Someone is even dumber than I thought.




Twitter made it clear that it blocked the link because the "real journalist" at the NYP left in their material a personal email and phone number - in clear violation of Twitter policy.
 
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So I expect upon a loss, Trump will immediately set up a 2024 campaign regardless if he actually wants to run again or not.

Even if he wins he will immediately start campaigning for a third term. I wonder if he can legally raise money for that given that he won’t be eligible to serve as the law stands now.
 
Even if he wins he will immediately start campaigning for a third term. I wonder if he can legally raise money for that given that he won’t be eligible to serve as the law stands now.

I don't think so. Trump's world will quickly start to crumble if he loses. His financial information will no longer be protected by the DOJ and the courts. Fear of Trump will quickly be a thing of the past. We're within a day or two before the Supreme Court rules on whether they accept Trump's last bid to prevent the Manhattan DA enforcing their subpoena for his financials. They already ruled on this saying the President cannot prevent a subpoena any more than the average citizen. Even the conservatives on the court ruled against him. Now two lower courts ruled that his attorneys argument that the subpoenas were too broad are nonsense. There is absolutely no reason the court to accept his request to review this because there is no constitutional issue to be resolved. And no disagreement between lower courts.

If Trump loses, he will no longer have that Presidential shield. Everything Trump has fought to prevent from becoming public will become public. If you think Trump was corrupt before wait until he is a private citizen.
 
Trump is Biden's best case. Trump says scientists are idiots and that Covid-19 shouldn't be a story in the media. He says out loud that maybe corporations should bribe him for favors.

I'm glad the Biden campaign is letting Trump make the case against Trump.
 
Trump may be falling into the trap some Democrats are, thinking that 2020 is a repeat of 2016. He's doing all the things that worked last time, e-mail scandal, lock them up chants, massive rallies. The e-mail nonsense fell flat, the only people locked up appear to be Trump supporters, and the rallies are hurting him with COVID-19 minded swing voters. He might have had a chance if he recognized that the electorate was conducting an experiment in 2016 and in 2020, they are deciding how that experiment turned out.

ETA: That and he doesn't understand that Biden isn't his opponent, the virus is.
 
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Trump may be falling into the trap some Democrats are, thinking that 2020 is a repeat of 2016. He's doing all the things that worked last time, e-mail scandal, lock them up chants, massive rallies. The e-mail nonsense fell flat, the only people locked up appear to be Trump supporters, and the rallies are hurting him with COVID-19 minded swing voters. He might have had a chance if he recognized that the electorate was conducting an experiment in 2016 and in 2020, they are deciding how that experiment turned out.

ETA: That and he doesn't understand that Biden isn't his opponent, the virus is.

Two things that are different:

1) Biden isn't Hilary. It isn't fair, but Hilary had tons of baggage after decades of right wing propaganda. She also has as much charisma as a piece of dry toast. She never should have been the candidate. Nobody hates Biden the way they hated Hilary.

2) President Trump is worse than candidate Trump. He's been worse than even most people could imagine in 2016, in no small part thanks to his disastrous covid-19 management.

The covid thing is 100% unforced error. Hell, plenty of politicians made mistakes early on, corrected course, and were largely forgiven and lauded by the public. Gov. Cuomo comes to mind. But Trump's doubling down on covid denialism is nobody's fault but his own.
 
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The covid thing is 100% unforced error. Hell, plenty of politicians made mistakes early on, corrected course, and were largely forgiven and lauded by the public. Gov. Cuomo comes to mind. But Trump's doubling down on covid denialism is nobody's fault but his own.

Trump's hard to "moneyball" but I do think (think) that the fact that Trump has shown that he is literally incapable of any introspective change is hurting him.

Good Presidents, horrible Presidents, effective Presidents, ineffective Presidents, they all showed some sense of self reflection. They changed something about how they governed during their administrations.

Love them or hate them the Bush, Reagan, Clinton, Obama that left office was not the same Bush, Reagan, Clinton, or Obama that took office. The weight of the office had some effect on them, good or bad.

Trump is still Trump. His reaction to everything is "More Trump." Holding the office of President hasn't changed him in the least and... that's weird. Nobody should hold a position that important and come out if it the exact same person.
 
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The covid thing is 100% unforced error.

I agree. If Trump listened to the scientists and experts, the USA casualties would have been low. Our per-capita deaths would be one of the lowest in the world, if not the lowest. Trump would easily be leading in all polls and win re-election.
 
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