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2020 Presidential Election

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Trump Retweeted

Dan Bongino
@dbongino
Pollster Who Predicted 2016 Win Predicts Another Trump Victory
Pollster From Trafalgar: I Predict Trump Will Win With Just Over 270 Electoral Votes
The pollster who got it right in 2016 is predicting a Trump victory.
bongino.com
 
They were the only ones who were remotely accurate last time, so I'll take every little blue dot as a win.

If you knew there was a 12% chance you would die in your sleep tonight, would you snooze peacefully? No one should ever forget that Trump can win.
 
If you knew there was a 12% chance you would die in your sleep tonight, would you snooze peacefully? No one should ever forget that Trump can win.
Did I say "we've got this in the bag, let's kick back and watch Netflix instead of voting?"
 
They were the only ones who were remotely accurate last time, so I'll take every little blue dot as a win.
Me too. In fact I think it's amazing Trump is still slipping. I was sure he'd stop at 15% or so, but Biden's support just keeps growing.

Did I say "we've got this in the bag, let's kick back and watch Netflix instead of voting?"
I've learned lately that you can't post or discuss good news on this forum without a disclaimer, lest someone will inevitably come around and inform you that Trump can still win and that we were optimistic in 2016, too.
 
Me too. In fact I think it's amazing Trump is still slipping. I was sure he'd stop at 15% or so, but Biden's support just keeps growing.

I've learned lately that you can't post or discuss good news on this forum without a disclaimer, lest someone will inevitably come around and inform you that Trump can still win and that we were optimistic in 2016, too.

Yeah, I hate to be Mr. Black Cloud, but all that matters is the electoral vote in three or four states, and what Repub state legislatures think they can get away with. We have never seen an election like this, including in 2016 and 2000.
 
If Trump loses the most likely thing to be crushed will be your 401K as most investors will immediately liquidate their stocks and move the proceeds to Gold and Silver. But hey you never know I could be wrong this time (for the first time).

I seem to recall my 401K doing just fine under the Obama administration.
 
Yeah, I hate to be Mr. Black Cloud, but all that matters is the electoral vote in three or four states, and what Repub state legislatures think they can get away with. We have never seen an election like this, including in 2016 and 2000.

Yes, but the point is everyone knows this, so people mansplaining it to us every single time something good happens is not neccessary or helpful.

If I say the weather report for tomorrow looks really good, I know there might still be clouds, wind, or rain.
 
Yes, but the point is everyone knows this, so people mansplaining it to us every single time something good happens is not neccessary or helpful.

If I say the weather report for tomorrow looks really good, I know there might still be clouds, wind, or rain.
I can't blame him. A little over-zealousness is a natural consequence of rejecting complacency.

The real test is going to be the next election, and the one after that, and so on. Has the Trump administration caused a lasting shift in people's political engagement, or is everyone going back to bed in 2024 when it's Harris vs. some "inoffensive" Republican who's gone back to saying the quiet part quietly?
 
I'm unable to read the Wapo piece as I'm not a subscriber, and likely never will be.

However, from the title I can assume it's an opinion piece about why the US voter should feel as they have been conned by President Trump. The reply to this question is simple in my case, he's made good on every promise that concerned me in 2016. The wall is going up, I've seen it. We pulled out of the Iran deal. Taxes were lowered which has meant more money in my pocket. Drug prices, specifically insulin, are much lower than before, again more money in my pocket. We are now energy independent. My gasoline is less than $2.00 per gallon and I even filled up a few times this year at $0.99/gal. He's cleaning out the swamp in DC though it seems very deep and still needs more work. No new wars, and this was a biggie for me. But the most important reason I will vote for Trump again is because he's not a politician, he's a businessman. He has added money to my pocket and yours too if you're an American whether you like him or not. I ask myself the Reagan question when considering a President's performance: "Am I better off now than I was 4 years ago?" The answer for me is "Yes definitely." How about you? Are you better off than you were?

How nice for you. But you're residing in a pariah state, with 5X excess Covid deaths and the rest of the world telling you, "Eff off!." If that's worth a few extra bucks, good on ya.
 
I'll go a bit further. The biggest reason people are lying about their chosen candidate is likely due to being called or thought of as "Racist" or "stupid" if they support a Republican candidate. Even though it is a ridiculous charge against 99.9% of voters, the Left's insistent use of terms like "Racist" and the like of other derogatory terms used about Trump voters has created a situation where polls absolutely cannot work accurately anymore. Now pollsters try to come out with new questions that address this. "Who do you think your neighbor will vote for?" As if they also seem to believe most people have the intellect of a Chimp. The system for polling is indeed broken and will remain so until the Left stops the petty personal attacks against Trump voters. There's no need for me to try and convince you that what I'm telling you is true, simply look at the posts within this very forum.

A very mature attitude, this "Insult me and I'll be sure to double down on stupidity."
 
Biden's chances increase further to 88%, over Trump's 12%, FiveThirtyEight

(Usual disclaimer: yes, I know x% is not 100%, post-election shenanigans, counting eggs before hatched, etc.)

It's been 87 to 12 for several days. In one outcome they tie 269 to 269. You can call that a Biden win because a tie goes to the House and the Democrats control the House.

However, the polls have been extremely steady for a couple weeks and they were mostly steady for months before that.

People have already decided. People are already voting. There is not going to be any Oct surprise against Biden Who knows what's still out there about Trump but it likely won't matter either.

Bottom line, these polls and opinions are pretty fixed. There are a couple of very close states that could go either way but they aren't going to change the outcome.
 
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If Trump loses the most likely thing to be crushed will be your 401K as most investors will immediately liquidate their stocks and move the proceeds to Gold and Silver. But hey you never know I could be wrong this time (for the first time).

Donald, is that you?
 
I seem to recall my 401K doing just fine under the Obama administration.

Yeah, after the Bush recession, mine was recovered by 2010; the Trump dump of 2020 really hurt as I was transitioning towards retirement and ironically more stable and conservative investment strategies.
 
I'm unable to read the Wapo piece as I'm not a subscriber, and likely never will be.

However, from the title I can assume it's an opinion piece about why the US voter should feel as they have been conned by President Trump. The reply to this question is simple in my case, he's made good on every promise that concerned me in 2016. The wall is going up, I've seen it. We pulled out of the Iran deal. Taxes were lowered which has meant more money in my pocket. Drug prices, specifically insulin, are much lower than before, again more money in my pocket. We are now energy independent. My gasoline is less than $2.00 per gallon and I even filled up a few times this year at $0.99/gal. He's cleaning out the swamp in DC though it seems very deep and still needs more work. No new wars, and this was a biggie for me. But the most important reason I will vote for Trump again is because he's not a politician, he's a businessman. He has added money to my pocket and yours too if you're an American whether you like him or not. I ask myself the Reagan question when considering a President's performance: "Am I better off now than I was 4 years ago?" The answer for me is "Yes definitely." How about you? Are you better off than you were?
I think you covered all the Republican talking points, congratulations. But perhaps you too have been conned.

Very little new wall has been built. And most of the work that’s has been done has been on preexisting wall.

By unilaterally pulling out of the Iranian deal we went from Iran completely halting its fissionable materials to a full on enrichment. And strengthening Iran’s status in the Middle East while weakening the reputation of the USA as an untrustworthy treaty negotiator.

Most of the taxes breaks went to the wealthy; those to the middle class are much smaller and temporary. And all this resulted in a huge increase in the deficit. Remember when high deficits were bad things for Republicans? Will our children be better off? Or did we just steal a lot of money from them to put a few coins today in the middle classes pockets?

Trump stabilized in a showy manner some drug prices but look at the swamp he’s created in conflicting interests in vaccine production alone. Either the taxpayer or the vaccine taker will be paying for this for a long time. And he intends to kill provisions of Obama care that protect preexisting conditions and ensure health care to many millions of citizens unable to afford it previously. And I will not even bother to mention all the Americans dead of covid-19.

Gasoline prices? Don’t you remember that when they began to fall Trump worked feverishly to push them back up? But more so he has damaged renewable energy and increased pollution enormously. What will our kids do when the existing oil is exhausted and prices begin to soar, when their environment I’d blighted? But I’m glad you saved a bit when you filled your car. And net energy exports had already began to fall way before the Trump administration without this massive environmental damage.

Empty the swamp? I’ve posted articles about how he has created a highly organized swamp by which people paying money directly to Trump and family business interests result access to the highest levels of government and their wishes come true.

No new wars? At the cost of throwing in the towel, betraying our allies, and conceding large stretches of the Middle East to terrorists, leaving our military and national security experts in despair.

Are you better now that 4 years ago? Other than that Mrs Lincoln did you enjoy the play?
 
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By unilaterally pulling out of the Iranian deal we went from Iran completely halting its fissionable materials to a full on enrichment. And strengthening Iran’s status in the Middle East while weakening the reputation of the USA as an untrustworthy treaty negotiator.
What makes this even sadder is that Iran, AFAIK, is moving in a liberal direction by itself already (eta: on a societal level, that is, I don't know about the regime). Trump just made the lives of all Iranians harder for... seemingly no reason other than to be Tough on Islam. A friend of mine has an Iranian friend, who followed the US 2016 election closely and dreaded Trump winning. After Trump taking the helm, she now reports that even basic commodities like paper can be hard to come by in Iran.

No doubt Biden will try to repair relations and loosen sanctions when (or if) he takes over, but as you say, some damage has already been done.
 
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