Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[Samson]

This is an intriguing article. it may be argued New Zealand is the exception that proves the rule, UP TO NOW. Or did the initial lockdowns allow a steep learning curve in treatment?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/co...a-primary-control/DQMBCUNNRCHCBLCITIMKOYXLRU/

 

[banquetbear]

This is an intriguing article. it may be argued New Zealand is the exception that proves the rule, UP TO NOW. Or did the initial lockdowns allow a steep learning curve in treatment?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/co...a-primary-control/DQMBCUNNRCHCBLCITIMKOYXLRU/

...there is no backflip. The Herald is doing as the Herald tends to do: twist what was said to provide a catchy headline. The byline goes to News Corp. Its Murdoch propaganda.

For context:

If you’ve read a piece in @nzherald today about the WHO stance on lockdowns, and wonder if this is relevant for NZ - then read this piece alongside. The Herald really needs to select articles that provide better info for NZ, our lockdown was used to good effect as recommended.

People help read the Herald piece might be falsely led to think that the WHO is chastising countries like NZ for lockdowns - that isn’t the case. WHO has praised NZ’s response, BECAUSE we test, trace, isolate, distance and mask (when needed) and have successfully contained...

The virus, multiple times, and in the last Auckland cluster - at a lower alert level. Lockdowns are our “last resort”, we are using them exactly as WHO advises. So don’t be fooled by Herald piece (biased selection), *this* is the point:

What is happening elsewhere (eg UK) is being described as “continual lockdown” - because overseas there are chronic restrictions on daily life, and lockdowns considered without getting the basics (test/trace) right. The WHO is saying “don’t use lockdowns like this” - absolutely.

My worry is not for people reading this thread - it is for the people at home reading their print @nzherald, stoking a vague sense of dissatisfaction with our Covid response, fostering a resolve to never lockdown again even if hospitals overwhelmed. That’s dangerous. /end

https://twitter.com/DrJinRussell/status/1315388437151662080

This Guardian article provides more nuance.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...s-answer-covid-control?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

[Clutch Cargo]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/10/11, 2:45pm CEST

Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 57,828
Australia 15
Sweden 0
Denmark 444
New Zealand 1

As is clear by the statistics only Sweden has “eliminated” the virus although New Zealand is doing its best to catch up. But don’t worry, New Zealand has “eliminated” the virus (if you believe that fairy tale) almost as often as Sweden has so it’s only a matter of time before New Zealand can hold its head up high alongside Sweden.

The big loser is Denmark, once again, and I’m beginning to suspect they’d be better off (certainly no worse) if they follow Sweden’s strategy. In the end …. they’ll have to. All smiles aside Denmark really is no better off than Sweden …. for better or for worse. And that is a stone cold fact.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I have been a sceptic of all the statistics because I find them to be political fiddles/propaganda. However, I have come under criticism for my scepticism (on a discussion forum entitled “international skeptics!” Can you believe that?!) so in order to appease my antagonists I am faithfully and ever so accurately providing the statistics on a daily basis. But as I was saying earlier, the majority of readers are selective in what they believe – or WANT to believe. I see there are those who rely on SVT’s reports (notoriously biased on political matters) and ignore the ones from WHO (calling it "lies") and then there are the people who slander the Herald (calling it “propaganda”) in favour of some other propaganda. I do realize that all the reports from all of the sources cannot all be “right” but this habit of rejecting one source out-of-hand yet bowing in solemn admiration for another is simply put, ‘selective ignorance’.

 

[Matthew Best]

You are joking, right?

 

[banquetbear]

You are joking, right?

...LATEST UPDATE.

No, they are not.

 

[dann]

You are joking, right?

It must be true! I mean, look at the font size!

And that is a stone cold fact.

The more obvious it gets that Sweden has no herd immunity, the more the fonts will grow!
What better way to spend your time at 04:43 AM.

 

[dann]

New cases on the increase in Stockholm for a couple of weeks, so ...
Stureplan nattklubbar öppnar igen (SVT.se, Oct. 10, 2020)
Stureplan nightclubs reopening

Smittspridningen har ökat i Stockholm de senaste dagarna. Enligt Region Stockholm har 855 nya fall av covid-19 konstaterats under de senaste tre dagarna, jämfört med 622 fall samma period veckan innan.
Nattklubbarna öppnar – tvivel på att restriktionerna kan hållas (Aftonbladet.se, Oct. 10, 2020)

The spread of the virus has increased in Stockholm in recent days. According to Region Stockholm, 855 new cases of Covid-19 were registered in the recent three days, in comparison to 622 the week before.
Nightclubs are reopening – doubt that the restrictions can be obeyed

 

[dann]

...there is no backflip. The Herald is doing as the Herald tends to do: twist what was said to provide a catchy headline. The byline goes to News Corp. Its Murdoch propaganda.

For context:

https://twitter.com/DrJinRussell/status/1315388437151662080

This Guardian article provides more nuance.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...s-answer-covid-control?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

The Guardian article is great:

During the summer, the UK appeared to have crushed the curve and brought its R number under control. But rather than replacing harsh lockdown measures with a functioning testing and tracing strategy, switching from quarantining the population to only quarantining those who had been exposed to the virus, the UK lifted restrictions without an effective fallback.
(...)
For the government, the purpose of lockdown seemed to be simply that: lock the country down and hope the problem would go away. But lockdown itself doesn’t fundamentally change the virus or its trajectory. It just buys us time. And as time went on, fatigue and anger set in. People started to equate suppressing the virus with staying at home and shutting businesses. The alarm bells began to ring: could the cost of these measures be higher than the toll of the virus itself? Should the lives of millions be constrained just to prevent the deaths of thousands?
It’s no surprise that those offering easy, compelling solutions – “You can have your life back by Christmas”; “It’s either the economy or health”; “This virus is practically harmless to those under 55” – have found a willing audience in a frustrated and fatigued society. Many of these arguments can be grouped together under terms such as “herd immunity”, “focused protection” or “shielding the vulnerable”.

Unfortunately, the highlighted facts seem to be too difficult for most politicians and ordinary people to understand, which makes it damn easy for people dealing in obfuscation to confuse them.

 

[PhantomWolf]

You are joking, right?

CC is pretty much in his own thread. He doesn't read any of the other posts and so constantly misses the fact that Sweden is reporting its numbers about 12 hours late and is actually having hundreds of cases a day. Nor does he take in that in several countries, such as here in NZ, the only cases we are having are in our managed isolation centres and not within the population itself.

The problem is that these facts absolutely destroy his wishful thinking that Sweden is somehow ahead of the game, so he just flat out ignores it.

 

[Samson]

CC is pretty much in his own thread. He doesn't read any of the other posts and so constantly misses the fact that Sweden is reporting its numbers about 12 hours late and is actually having hundreds of cases a day. Nor does he take in that in several countries, such as here in NZ, the only cases we are having are in our managed isolation centres and not within the population itself.

The problem is that these facts absolutely destroy his wishful thinking that Sweden is somehow ahead of the game, so he just flat out ignores it.

New Zealand will now enjoy unique freedoms and then access the suite of vaccines. Meanwhile Outbreaks will be immediately controlled.
Then we can reingage with the utopia that is swathes of mindless tourists resembling a biblical plague.
Paradise is a brief experience.

 

[dann]

He doesn't read any of the other posts and so constantly misses the fact that Sweden is reporting its numbers about 12 hours late and is actually having hundreds of cases a day.

That is a fact he is very well aware of. He knows that Sweden hasn't had a day of zero new cases since March. He deliberately makes sure to get WHO's numbers before the Swedish number of cases has been registered so he can lay claim to his own kind of imaginary 'objectivity': But I'm just reporting the facts. That is also why he is so meticulous about the time: "2:45pm CEST"
It may not be an actual fact, but it appeared to be when I said it.

 

[dann]

Sweden - new cases increasing:

Från flera håll kommer nu signaler om att spridningen av det nya coronaviruset åter tagit fart och antalet bekräftade fall per dygn har nått vårens höga nivåer.
Samtidigt är antalet döda och intensivvårdade i sjukdomen på bara en bråkdel av vad vi såg under toppen i mars och april. Den grundläggande frågan är hur en pandemi kan mätas och vilka mått som bäst förklarar verkligheten.
Smittspridningen ökar igen – det är skillnaderna från i våras (DagensNyheter.se, Oct. 12, 2020)

From several directions there are now signs that the spread of the new coronavirus is accelerating again and the number of confirmed cases per day has reached the high levels of spring.
At the same time, the number of deaths and Covid-19 patients in ICUs is just a fraction of what we saw at the peak in March and April. The basic question is how a pandemic can be measured and which measurements best explain reality.
The spread of the virus is increasing again – these are the differences from spring this year

The biggest difference is pretty obvious: In March and April, Sweden tested only people who were seriously ill from Covid-19. If you were asymptomatic or not seriously ill, you wouldn’t get tested, so Sweden’s dark number of infections was considerably higher than now. Nobody knows exactly how high, and we will probably never know, but it is most likely the reason for the incongruity between the the number of confirmed cases and hospitalizations and deaths in March-April and now.

Sweden - Tegnell about more cases in nursing homes:

Den 1 oktober hävdes det nationella besöksförbudet på äldreboenden.
Smittspridningen på äldreboenden har ökat - men det kan inte kopplas till att anhöriga nu tillåts besök igen, menar statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell till Expressen.
– Nej det finns inga tecken på det.
Tegnell: Inte fel att häva besöksförbudet (Expressen.se, Oct. 12, 2020)

Oct. 1, the natonal ban on visits to nursing homes was suspended.
The spread of the virus at nursing homes has increased – but that cannot be traced to relatives being allowed to visit again, national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell says to Expressen.
– No, there aren’t any signs of that.
Not a mistake to suspend the ban on visits (to nursing homes)

Denmark - travel restrictions for people from eight regions in Sweden:
Danmark inför nya reserestriktioner (Expressen.se, Oct. 8, 2020)
Denmark introduces new travel restrictions

Denmark - current mortality (not Covid-19 specific):

Trots att covid-19-pandemin rasar dör det färre människor i Danmark än på väldigt länge.
Men ändå kritiseras regeringen för sin corona-strategi.
– Vill man ha den lägsta möjliga dödligheten oavsett priset? Det är naivt och dyrt, säger överläkaren Joachim Hoffmann-Petersen.
(…)
Vill man besegra coronan? Det är omöjligt, säger han till tidningen Politiken.
Han tycker att man i väntan på ett vaccin accepterar ett högre smittotal och lite färre restriktioner.
– I gengäld bör man fokusera extremt mycket på smittspårning.
Lägsta dödligheten i Danmark på sex år (Expressen.se, Oct. 12, 2020)

In spite of the Covid-19 pandemic raging, fewer people die in Denmark than for a very long time.
And yet the government is criticized for its corona strategy.
– Do you want the lowest mortality at any cost? It is naïve and expensive, leading doctor Joachim Hoffmann-Petersen says.
(…)
– Do you want to defeat the coronavirus? That is impossible, he tells the newspaper Politiken.
He thinks that while waiting for the vaccine, you should accept a higher number of infections and a little fewer restrictions.
– But then you should focus extremely much on contact tracing.
Lowest mortality in Denmark in six years

If there is one strategy that has been tested only to fail again and again in this pandemic, it’s the idea that you can loosen the restrictions just a little bit more and still contain the virus. It’s what most of the countries in Europe have tried and are dealing with right now.
Interesting that the Swedish newspaper talks about the situation in Denmark as "the Covid-19 pandemic raging." I doubt that it would use the same word about the situation in Sweden.

Denmark - the number of new cases seems to be dropping, but very s-l-o-w-l-y:
Professor: Falder ikke så hurtigt som vi kunne have drømt om (TV2.dk, Oct. 12, 2020)
The number of cases doesn’t drop as fast as we could have hoped for

 

[dann]

Monday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Oct. 12, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 583 (5,894) 919* 26** *according to SVT.se, ** according to SVT.se No new numbers from Sweden till Tuesday.
Denmark: 116 (671) 389 19
Finland: 62 (346) 214 10
Norway: 51 (276) +61* 5 *+ because Norway’s numbers are reported to Worldometers more than once a day. Sunday's number updated from 40 to 58.
Iceland: 29 (10) 56 3 Status of Covid-19 in Iceland (Oct. 7, 2020).
Iceland has 1,022 active cases, Faroe Islands 14, New Zealand 45.
The Faroe Islands have 99 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.

Over the past week, the daily number of positive tests has been as follows: 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0 and 0.
No new Covid cases since Wednesday (KVF.fo, Oct. 9, 2020)

 

[lionking]

Sweden - new cases increasing:

From several directions there are now signs that the spread of the new coronavirus is accelerating again and the number of confirmed cases per day has reached the high levels of spring.
At the same time, the number of deaths and Covid-19 patients in ICUs is just a fraction of what we saw at the peak in March and April. The basic question is how a pandemic can be measured and which measurements best explain reality.
The spread of the virus is increasing again – these are the differences from spring this year

The biggest difference is pretty obvious: In March and April, Sweden tested only people who were seriously ill from Covid-19. If you were asymptomatic or not seriously ill, you wouldn’t get tested, so Sweden’s dark number of infections was considerably higher than now. Nobody knows exactly how high, and we will probably never know, but it is most likely the reason for the incongruity between the the number of confirmed cases and hospitalizations and deaths in March-April and now.

Sweden - Tegnell about more cases in nursing homes:

Den 1 oktober hävdes det nationella besöksförbudet på äldreboenden.
Smittspridningen på äldreboenden har ökat - men det kan inte kopplas till att anhöriga nu tillåts besök igen, menar statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell till Expressen.
– Nej det finns inga tecken på det.
Tegnell: Inte fel att häva besöksförbudet (Expressen.se, Oct. 12, 2020)

Oct. 1, the natonal ban on visits to nursing homes was suspended.
The spread of the virus at nursing homes has increased – but that cannot be traced to relatives being allowed to visit again, national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell says to Expressen.
– No, there aren’t any signs of that.
Not a mistake to suspend the ban on visits (to nursing homes)

Denmark - travel restrictions for people from eight regions in Sweden:
Danmark inför nya reserestriktioner (Expressen.se, Oct. 8, 2020)
Denmark introduces new travel restrictions

Denmark - current mortality (not Covid-19 specific):

In spite of the Covid-19 pandemic raging, fewer people die in Denmark than for a very long time.
And yet the government is criticized for its corona strategy.
– Do you want the lowest mortality at any cost? It is naïve and expensive, leading doctor Joachim Hoffmann-Petersen says.
(…)
– Do you want to defeat the coronavirus? That is impossible, he tells the newspaper Politiken.
He thinks that while waiting for the vaccine, you should accept a higher number of infections and a little fewer restrictions.
– But then you should focus extremely much on contact tracing.
Lowest mortality in Denmark in six years

If there is one strategy that has been tested only to fail again and again in this pandemic, it’s the idea that you can loosen the restrictions just a little bit more and still contain the virus. It’s what most of the countries in Europe have tried and are dealing with right now.
Interesting that the Swedish newspaper talks about the situation in Denmark as "the Covid-19 pandemic raging." I doubt that it would use the same word about the situation in Sweden.

Denmark - the number of new cases seems to be dropping, but very s-l-o-w-l-y:
Professor: Falder ikke så hurtigt som vi kunne have drømt om (TV2.dk, Oct. 12, 2020)
The number of cases doesn’t drop as fast as we could have hoped for

A couple of points about a high infection rate/low death rate policy are firstly younger people can get very ill and secondly that nobody knows the longer term impact of the disease. The whole idea of accepting a higher infection rate in the pursuit of imaginary herd-immunity-without-a-vaccine is disgraceful.

 

[dann]

The thread starter returned briefly to the forum as a sock puppet.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),

Data last updated: 2020/10/12, 3:29pm CEST

Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 53,055
Australia 20
Sweden 0
Denmark 340
New Zealand 0

Only New Zealand and Sweden have managed to “eliminate” the virus. Kudos to Kiwis and Swedes! Denmark, unfortunately, is the biggest loser again. One would think that Denmark would follow Sweden’s lead being neighbours and all. Oh well, Sweden leads in medicine while Denmark leads the way in Stram Kurs politics. We all have something to learn from one another. The really sad thing is that there are still those who choose to be misled by information sources that are politically biased. SVT sources are deeply involved in political propaganda whereas WHO has no political affiliation at all and so they report the daily tally of Coronavirus “as is”. Alas, there are those who would rather succumb to sources based upon propaganda. I guess that if everyone were earnest in their curiosity the world would be a boring place to live, eh?

 

[dann]

In CC's made-up dreamworld:

Sep. 30:

Sweden 0

Oct. 1:

Sweden 0

Oct. 2:

Sweden 397

Oct. 3:

Sweden 0

Oct. 4:

Sweden - 0

Oct. 5:

Sweden 0

Oct. 6:

Sweden 0

Oct. 7:

Sweden 0

Oct. 8:

Sweden 0

Oct. 9:

Sweden 0

Oct. 10:

Sweden 0

Oct. 11:

Sweden 919

Oct. 12:

Sweden 0

Oct. 13:

Sweden 0

Meanwhile in the real world:
WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard - Data last updated: 2020/10/12, 3:29pm CEST: Search by Country, Territory, or Area --> Sweden:
Confirmed cases:
Sep. 30: 613
Oct. 1: 688
Oct. 2: 634
Oct. 3: 712
Oct. 4: 461
Oct. 5: 155
Oct. 6: 375
Oct. 7: 786
Oct. 8: 831
Oct. 9: 657

For now, this is as far as the graph goes of the: Sweden: Situation: Daily confirmed cases.
It is deficient in other ways, too: Since it only shows the number of confirmed cases, it gives no good impression of the actual number of cases in March, April and May. Due to the extremely low number of tests carried out by Sweden in those months, we will probably never know with any certainty how many Swedes got infected in those months.
However, the graph of Sweden's Daily confirmed cases does give a good impression of the steady rise in the number of confirmed cases per day since late August/early September.

 

[lionking]

In many, perhaps most, countries leaders who presided over such appalling death rates would not last a week.

 

[dann]

Det gick hett till kring Stureplan i helgen när nattklubbarna öppnade igen – trots ökad smittspridning i Stockholms innerstad. Men vems är egentligen ansvaret?
Det är dags att skydda de yngre (SvenskaDagbladet, Oct. 12, 2020)

It was hot in the area around Stureplan when the nightclubs reopened - in spite of increased spread of infections in the center of Stockholm. But who is responsible?
It is time to protect young people

Smittspridningen av coronaviruset fortsätter att öka i Stockholms län. På måndagen infördes hemisolering för dem som bor med en person med konstaterad covid-19.
Ökad smitta i Stockholm – hemisolering infört (SvenskaDagbladet, Oct. 12, 2020)

The coronavirus contagion continues to increase in the Stockholm area. This Monday, self-isolation was introduced for people cohabiting with confirmed Covid-19.
Increased contagion in Stockholm - self-isolation at home has been introduced

 

[dann]

The Herd-Immunity Strategy Condemned by the World Health Organization

WHO-chefen: Oetiskt att söka flockimmunitet (SVT.se, Oct. 12, 2020 - 20:02)
WHO director: Unethical to try for herdimmunity

“Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it,” Tedros said. “Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic.”
WHO chief says herd immunity approach to pandemic 'unethical' - Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus cites lack of understanding of virus and lasting health effects (Guardian, Oct. 12, 2020)

I tend to disagree with him when he claims that it has never been used, but Sweden, with Tegnell & Giesecke at the steering wheel, may have been the first country in the history of the world to attempt it.

Relying on naturally obtaining herd immunity would be “scientifically and ethically problematic”, Tedros said. “Allowing a dangerous virus that we don’t fully understand to run free is simply unethical. It’s not an option.”