Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[dann]

I think I know how he got that idea. I don't think he is outright lying, but this is the second time he makes the same embarrassing mistake. At first I thought that it was because he had looked at Worldometers this morning when a new day had started, and that he had not noticed that the numbers from yesterday had therefore been deleted, but that is not the point.
When you go to Yesterday, Sweden's number of new cases is: blank. The reporting of the number of new Swedish cases hasn't been very good on Worldometers, which is why I switched to SVT.se.

Totalt har 92 466 personer bekräftats smittade av covid-19. Det är en ökning med 1 543 nya fall sedan i fredags.

Today's numbers will appear there at 2 p.m. (CET).
Apparently the WHO site he refers to (but doesn't link to) has the same problem as Worldometers with the number of new cases in Sweden.

Since CC is a Swede living in Sweden, I have to assume that he does nothing to keep up with the news. Tegnell & Giesecke would ecstatically have pronounced the victory of their superior herd-immunity strategy if Sweden had had a day without any new cases! CC also doesn't seem to wonder about the number of cases at one institution of learning, which I quoted in post 2258 yesterday. Wouldn't you expect at least those explicitly mentioned cases to be registered?!

Gavin made a similar mistake when he reported that Sweden had only had one Covid-19 death the previous week. He wasn't aware that it often takes weeks for Sweden to register Covid deaths. Yesterday they had had 10 since Friday, but some of those deaths may be from previous weeks - and some of the deaths from last week may not have been registered yet.

Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 22, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 580 (5,870) 1199* 15 *since Friday, according to SVT.se

Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 29, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 582 (5,890) 1,543 20 *since Friday, according to SVT.se

 

[jimbob]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/9/29, 5:08pm CEST


Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 35,217
Australia 4
Sweden 0
Denmark 435
New Zealand 2

Hmmmmm.

This is clearly a lie, but never mind. Care to comment on Sweden's 6000 deaths at a rate of 600 per million population?

It is technically true, but meaningless

I guess "Sweden - No data" isn't such an eyecatching statement.

 

[lionking]

It is technically true, but meaningless

I guess "Sweden - No data" isn't such an eyecatching statement.

I did know that Sweden does not put out daily results, but so did CC, and I stick with the word “lie”.

Not terribly relevant, but I think results every three days or so is better. Here in Victoria, Australia we have daily figures of 16 on average when it was 100 not so long ago, but it bounces about a bit. One day we had 4 and the next 10, with headlines shouting about a “spike”.

 

[dann]

I think this is the page: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard
Notice that it actually (still!) says "Cases - newly reported in last 24 hours" : 0
It also says "Deaths - cumulative total" : 5880
instead of 5,890 as reported on SVT.se Tuesday afternoon.

 

[dann]

Tuesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 30, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 583 (5,893) 397 20 *since Friday, according to SVT.se
Denmark: 112 (650) 534 24
Finland: 62 (345) 100 4
Norway: 50 (274) 47 3
Iceland: 29 (10) 33 2
Iceland has 551 active cases, Faroe Islands 38, New Zealand 44.
The Faroe Islands have 223 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, all tests analyzed.

Faroe Islands:
Four new Covid-19 cases (KVF.fo, Sep. 30, 2020)

Up to now, the government has spent some DKK 23 million on Covid tests at the borders.
From tomorrow, Smyril Line and Atlantic Airways will be collecting the test fees from regular travellers, while tax authority Taks will collect the fees from people arriving on fishing ships or pleasure boats.
The new law requiring inbound travellers to pay for mandatory Covid-19 tests comes into force tomorrow (KVF.fo, Sep. 30, 2020)

The fee is not very expensive; about 50$.

Sweden:

– Vi är allvarligt bekymrade kring den ökade smittspridningen i region Stockholm just nu. Siffrorna tyder på att smittspridningen har ökat och det tyder i sin tur på att allt för många har slutat följa Folkhälsomyndighetens rekommendationer, säger Björn Eriksson, hälso- och sjukvårdsdirektör i Region Stockholm.
– Vi behöver trycka tillbaka det här till varje pris, fortsätter han.
Regionen om covidläget i Stockholm: ”Mycket oroande” (SVT.se, Sep. 29, 2020)

We are seriosly worried about the increased spread of infecton in the Stockholm region right now. The numbers indicate that the spread has increased, and this indicates that far too many have stopped following the Public Health Agency’s recommendations, says Björn Eriksson, director of health care and hospitals in Region Stockholm.
-We have to push this back at any cost, he continues
Region about the Covid situation in Stochholm: ”Very disconcerting”

Antalet coronafall har fördubblats i Stockholm: Vi är allvarligt bekymrade (DagensNyheter.se, Sep. 29, 2020)
The number of corona cases in Stockholm has doubled: ”We are seriosly worried.”

Matematikern: Så förstår du de ökade smittotalen (SVT.se, Sep. 30, 2020)
How to understand the increased number of cases

Tegnell om när pandemin är över: Definitivt inte i år (Aftonbladet.se, Sep. 30, 2020)
Tegnell on when the pandemic is over: Definitely not this year - So still no herd immunity in sight, I guess …

Denmark:
33 minkfarme er ramt af corona: Støttepartier vil forbyde minkavl i Danmark (DR.dk, Sep. 30, 2020)
33 mink farms hit by corona: The parties that support to government want to ban the breeding of mink in Denmark
The mink farms are all in the same area, Vendsyssel. The authorities don’t know how it spreads but suspect ”birds and other wild animals like rats, raccoon dogs, foxes and bats.” They have therefore asked all hunters in the area to send in the predators they shoot to test them for the virus.

 

[dann]

Expresen visar unik coronadokumentar (Expressen.se, Sep. 30, 2020)
Expressen.se airs a unique documentary about the pandemic in Sweden tonight at 8 p.m. i.e. two hours from now.

Trailer: Pandemin inifrån - En dokumentär om coronavirusets offer i Sverige (Expressen.se, Sep. 30, 2020)
Trailer: Inside the Pandemic - A documentary about the victims of the coronavirus in Sweden

 

[Clutch Cargo]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/9/30, 4:28pm CEST


Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 32,688
Australia 19
Sweden 0
Denmark 392
New Zealand 1

So much for NZ "eliminating" it.

 

[banquetbear]

So much for NZ "eliminating" it.

...you've posted the confused smiley. Would you care to explain the confusion? The technical definition of elimination has been explained to you several times over in this thread, with multiple citations provided. Did you read any of them? Do I need to explain the difference between community spread, and caught at the border again too you?

 

[lionking]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/9/30, 4:28pm CEST


Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 32,688
Australia 19
Sweden 0
Denmark 392
New Zealand 1

So much for NZ "eliminating" it.

Care to comment on Sweden's 6000 deaths at a rate of 600 per million population?

 

[dann]

...you've posted the confused smiley. Would you care to explain the confusion? The technical definition of elimination has been explained to you several times over in this thread, with multiple citations provided. Did you read any of them? Do I need to explain the difference between community spread, and caught at the border again too you?

There's really no need to bother. At this point, it has become obvious that he is using the Trump playbook: When your lies are exposed, double down and repeat them again and again. That is the only way to make sure that you can go on believing them forever in spite of reality.
Besides, Tegnell's Sweden doesn't believe in border control as a way to clamp down on the virus so the whole concept is irrelevant in their line of thinking.

 

[dann]

From yesterday:

TuWednesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 30, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 583 (5,893) 397* 20 *since Friday, according to SVT.se

Correction: "Tuesday" and "Since Friday" were wrong. They were Wednesday's new numbers since Tuesday.

 

[dann]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/9/30, 4:28pm CEST


Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 32,688
Australia 19
Sweden 0Denmark 392
New Zealand 1

So much for NZ "eliminating" it.

Now, CC's WHO site says 397, Sweden's number of new cases from yesterday. Thursday's number is:

Thursday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Oct. 1, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 583 (5,893) 752* 20 *according to SVT.se
Denmark: 112 (651) 398 22
Finland: 62 (344) 111 4
Norway: 50 (274) 58 3
Iceland: 29 (10) 41 2
Iceland has 582 active cases, Faroe Islands 43, New Zealand 53.
The Faroe Islands have 198 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, all tests analyzed.

Faroe Islands:
Five new positive Covid tests – There are now 43 active Covid-19 cases in the country (KVF.fo, Oct. 1, 2020)

Denmark:
Corona er nu anerkendt som arbejdsskade. ’Det har været et helvede at gå igennem.’ 324 ansatte i sundhedssektoren har fået anerkendt covid-19 som arbejdsskade.
(DR.dk, Oct. 1, 2020)
Corona now recognized as occupational injury: ’It has been hell to experience this.’ For 324 employees in the health care sector Covid-19 has been recognized as occupational injury.


Sweden – new guidelines:

- Vi har kollat vad vi kan göra på nationell nivå för att hålla ned smittan, säger Anders Tegnell.
- Mycket av smittan förutom på arbetsplatserna sker i hemmen.
Personer i samma hushåll som en person med diagnosen covid-19 kommer att få förhållningsregler.
Förhållningsreglerna säger att även friska personer i hushållet har en skyldighet att stanna hemma under en begränsad tid.
Förhållningsreglerna gäller i sju dagar.
Barn i för- och grundskolan ska fortsätta gå dit.
Tegnell: Vuxna som bor med covid-smittade bör stanna hemma i sju dagar (SVT.se, Oct 1, 2020 – 14:06)

- We have studied what we can do at a national level to keep the infection down, says Anders Tegnell.
- Much of the transmission, in addition to transmission at the job, happens at home.
People living with a person diagnosed with Covid-19 will have to follow new guidelines.
The guidelines say that even healthy persons in the household are obliged to stay home for a limited period of time.
The duration is seven days
Children in pre-school and elementary school will continue to go to school[/u]. Tegnell: Adults living with people infected with the virus should stay at home for seven days This seems to follow the ideology of the Swedish strategy that children don’t really transmit the infection. Sweden also sees no reason to quarantine those infected outside of their homes so they don’t infect the people they cohabit with – in spite of the explicit knowledge that ”Much of the transmission … happens at home.” But then again, Sweden sees no reason to do anything effectively to bring down the number of infections since that doesn’t contribute to ’herd immunity’.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/10/1, 5:15pm CEST


Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 38,476
Australia 15
Sweden 397
Denmark 534
New Zealand 12


You have to give the New Zealanders credit. They managed to “eliminate” the virus twice and now they are unmistakeably working towards “eliminating” it a third time.

 

[banquetbear]

You have to give the New Zealanders credit. They managed to “eliminate” the virus twice and now they are unmistakeably working towards “eliminating” it a third time.

...for anyone else as obviously confused as Clutch Cargo, I'll run through the basics of the NZ Elimination Strategy. From the NZ Ministry of Health Website:

Our elimination strategy is a sustained approach to keep it out, find it and stamp it out. We do this through:

controlling entry at the border
disease surveillance
physical distancing and hygiene measures
testing for and tracing all potential cases
isolating cases and their close contacts
broader public health controls depending on the alert level we are in.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work...-19-elimination-strategy-aotearoa-new-zealand

One of the pillars of the strategy is controlling entry at the borders. All New Zealanders have the right to return to the country. And on average we have between 2-500 people arriving at the airports every single day.

Everybody who arrives in the country is required to isolate at the borders in Managed Isolation Facilities. It isn't practical to test people before they hop on the plane to head to New Zealand: testing is inconsistent worldwide (in both availability and reliability) and also people may he in early stages of incubation which increases the chance of testing being negative. So when people arrive at the borders there is a chance that any of them might have the virus.

We've established that best practice is to test on Day 3 and Day 12. The Day 3 test allows time for incubation. The Day 12 allows for a longer incubation and to catch any that Day 3 missed. People can refuse a test: but if they refuse then they are required to remain in managed isolation for 28 days. (My understanding is that this may have changed and they might have the ability to compel a test now)

So the numbers that Clutch Cargo seems so excited about are people that have tested positive in Managed Isolation at the borders. They technically haven't crossed over the border, however for the purposes of reporting they are included in the New Zealand daily numbers. Which is (with the state of the world) entirely expected. We want to be catching Covid at the borders. We can keep people in isolation there: we can give them quality healthcare, we can keep them separate from loved ones who may not have tested positive.

And it prevents community spread, which is the entire point of the elimination strategy. So contrary to Clutch Cargo's beliefs: New Zealand currently doesn't need to be eliminating Covid again, despite the presence of Covid at the borders there have been zero cases in the community for just over a week and a bit.

 

[dann]

CC is late. The current numbers in the case of both New Zealand and Sweden have been updated since then:

Today's update was provided by Director of Public Health Caroline McElnay after 12 new cases, all recent arrivals, were reported yesterday.
No new cases of Covid-19 coronavirus in New Zealand today (1News, Oct. 2, 2020)

Totalt har 93 615 personer bekräftats smittade av covid-19. Det är en ökning med 752 nya fall sedan i går.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, Oct. 1, 2020)

At total of 93,615 persons have been confirmed infected with Covid-19. This is an increase by 752 new cases since yesterday. New Swedish numbers this afternoon at 2 p.m.

 

[dann]

Friday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Oct. 2, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 583 (5,895) 752* 22** *according to SVT.se ** according to SVT.se
Denmark: 112 (652) 536 29
Finland: 62 (345) 141 4
Norway: 51 (275) 135 3
Iceland: 29 (10) 41 2
Iceland has 582 active cases, Faroe Islands 43, New Zealand 43.
The Faroe Islands have 198 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/10/2, 5:04pm CEST


Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 44,985
Australia 18
Sweden 0
Denmark 398
New Zealand 0


It looks like both Sweden and New Zealand have “eliminated” the virus again. But don’t worry. What with people streaming across New Zealand’s border - like Mexicans into El Paso - it will reintroduce corona soon enough ‘from outside’ without any doubt. I do find it very interesting that despite New Zealand having no land border (plus a superior plan for “eliminating” the virus) they can still claim that after the first two “eliminations” the virus was ‘reintroduced’.

Perhaps the “elimination” stories are a political fairy tale and I guess you can’t blame them. I mean, just look at Denmark. For all of its stern-faced & publicised, implemented rules and restrictions, cases of corona are on the rise there. But the world wants so very much to believe the virus can be beat (and it MUST be beat one way or another) so what’s the harm in New Zealand fiddling with the statistics a bit if it gives us hope and optimism? Good on ya’ kiwi!

 

[lionking]

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/10/2, 5:04pm CEST


Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 44,985
Australia 18
Sweden 0
Denmark 398
New Zealand 0


It looks like both Sweden and New Zealand have “eliminated” the virus again. But don’t worry. What with people streaming across New Zealand’s border - like Mexicans into El Paso - it will reintroduce corona soon enough ‘from outside’ without any doubt. I do find it very interesting that despite New Zealand having no land border (plus a superior plan for “eliminating” the virus) they can still claim that after the first two “eliminations” the virus was ‘reintroduced’.

Perhaps the “elimination” stories are a political fairy tale and I guess you can’t blame them. I mean, just look at Denmark. For all of its stern-faced & publicised, implemented rules and restrictions, cases of corona are on the rise there. But the world wants so very much to believe the virus can be beat (and it MUST be beat one way or another) so what’s the harm in New Zealand fiddling with the statistics a bit if it gives us hope and optimism? Good on ya’ kiwi!

Do you actually read posts other than yours? Look, you are not fooling anyone. Sweden has never had a day of 0 transmissions since the pandemic hit. Never.

 

[dann]

It's Saturday, so Sweden will have zero reported cases till Tuesday when they return with a vengeance. It's not that he doesn't know this. His projection is obvious when he talks about "New Zealand fiddling with the statistics a bit" because "it gives us hope and optimism."

Throughout this pandemic, Sweden's politicians and leading epidemiologists have been more concerned with Sweden's image than with the protection of its population from SARS-CoV-2. And Swedish consensus culture makes Swedish nationalists defend this strategy even when they are among the most vulnerable to the virus, like CC.

It is reminiscent of the attitude of elderly Trumpists in the USA. At the beginning of the pandemic, Republicans asked old people to sacrifice themselves for the economy. In Sweden, Tegnell complained that Sweden wasn't willing to take risks.

So it hurts the nationalist pride of people like this when other countries prove by example that this kind of sacrifice is entirely unnecessary. That's when jingoism becomes the only outlet for their frustration.

 

[dann]

Denmark:
Laveste smittetal den seneste uge: - Tallet er stadig for højt, siger virolog (TV2.dk, Oct. 3, 2020)
Lowest number of cases this week: - The number is still too high, says virologist - The number of new cases was 370 today.

Sweden's former epidemiologist:

Under torsdagen rapporterades det högsta antalet nya coronafall, 752, sedan i juni.
(…)
– Om man tittat på siffrorna från mars/april till i dag, så syns knappt dödstalen nu. Och för de som är smittade är många som inte är särskilt sjuka och många är ganska unga. Jag tror inte att det blir någon andra våg.
Giesecke: Ingen andravåg – dödstalen syns knappt (Expressen.se, Oct. 3, 2020)

Thursday, the highest number of new coronavirus cases since June was reported, 752.
(…)
- If you look at the numbers from March/April and until today, you almost can't see the death toll now. And of those who are infected, many aren’t particularly ill and many are quite young. I don’t think there will be a second wave.
Giesecke: No second wave – you almost can't see the number of deaths

Norway's leading epidemiologist:

Nu, lite mer än ett halvår senare har Norge runt 270 dödsfall kopplat till corona. Frode Forland tycker att de valde rätt när de gjorde en ”lockdown”, att slå till hårt gjorde att folk tog pandemin på allvar, då osäkerheten inför vad man stod inför var så stor.
– Jag tror ju att vi har haft en strategi i Norge som har sparat många liv, och det står jag fortfarande fast vid.
(…)
Under våren har Frode Forland kritiserat både den svenska strategin och Anders Tegnell ett flertal gånger.
– Det är den norska folksjälen, att man ska säga till när man inte är överens. Jag har inte ett ont ord att säga om Tegnell privat, men jag håller inte med om alla hans värderingar.
Men att kritisera Anders Tegnell kommer inte ostraffat, fick Frode Forland erfara. När han sagt att han tyckt att den svenska strategin är fel har han fått utstå både hot och hat.
– Det är som det är på nätet. Det är inte alla som gillar när man säger emot, speciellt inte svenskar.
Hur hoten sett ut vill han inte gå in på, men han tycker det säger någonting om hur svenskarna ser på sin ”hjälte”.
(…)
– Jag ser att svensk media ofta vill porträttera mig som ”norska Tegnell”. Det stämmer inte. Dessutom nämns inte Tegnell som ”svenska Forland” i Norge.
Till skillnad från i Sverige är de fler som bär ansvaret av hanteringen av pandemin, och flera tar beslut. Jämförelsen med Tegnell är inte någonting han trivs med. För honom är personkulten kring Anders Tegnell väldigt märklig.
Frode Forland fick hot från svenskar när han kritiserade Tegnell (Aftonbladet.se, Oct. 3, 2020)

Now, more than six months later, Norway whas about 270 corona deaths. Frode Forland thinks that they made the right choice when they had a ”locdown”, striking hard made people take the pandemic seriously when there was much uncertainty about what we faced.
- I think that Norway’s strategy saved many lives, and stick with that.
(…)
In spring, Frode Forland criticized both the Swedish strategy and Anders Tegnell several times.
- It is in the Norwegian national character that you speak out when you disagree. I have nothing bad so say about Tegnell in private, but I don’t agree with all of his assumptions.
But Frode Forland experienced that you don’t go unpunished if you criticize Anders Tegnell. When he said that he thought the Swedish strategy is wrong, he was met with both threats and hate.
- That’s the way it is on the internet. Not everybody likes to be contradicted, Swedes in particular.
He does not want to comment on the kinds of threats he received, but he thinks it says a lot about what Swedes think of their ”hero”.
(…)
- I notice that the Swedish media often want to portray me as the ”Norwegian Tegnell”. That is not true. Besides, Tegnell isn’t called the ”Swedish Forland” in Norway.
Unlike Sweden, they are more people to carry to responsibility of handling the pandemic, and more people are involved in making decisions. He isn’t comfortable with the comparison to Tegnell. To him, the personality cult surrounding Anders Tegnell is very strange.
Frode Forland was threatened by Swedes when he criticized Tegnell

He is also happy that Norwegians don’t get Frode Forland tattoos!