Regnad Kcin
Penultimate Amazing
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2020 Presidential Election
- Thread starter Skeptic Ginger
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Regnad Kcin
Penultimate Amazing
BOATS!
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
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It seems clear that Trump has given up on spending campaign money, money that he will need for his lawsuits and escape plan.
Armitage72
Penultimate Amazing
5,000 boats, that's what ? 30, 40 thousand people tops.
Does he realise that's 0.02% of registered voters ? (maths may be a bit wrong)
Minoosh
Penultimate Amazing
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Wait - is Graham saying he WON’T continue supporting Trump/Pence unless the funding gap is closed?
Lothian
should be banned
I see Trump is chickening out of a second debate to avoid another spanking.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54465139
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54465139
pgwenthold
Penultimate Amazing
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"the funding gap created by liberals..."?
That is just bizarre.
How did "liberals" create a "funding gap"? All they did is contribute to his opponent. If there is a gap, it's because his supporters haven't done enough.
bonzombiekitty
Graduate Poster
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Anectdote: I live in Philadelphia, a person in my neighborhood facebook group just posted a picture of the line to drop off absentee ballots at one of the drop off locations. It's roughly 200 people long.
pgwenthold
Penultimate Amazing
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I voted yesterday. Got there before 10 am and there were only a couple of people in front of me, but by the time I left minutes later, the line had gotten a lot longer.
Cain
Straussian
Everyday it's something. Now Trump does not want to debate virtually even though he has a highly contagious disease. Biden should say something to the effect that he wouldn't be surprised if Trump "folds" and goes through with the debates.
If Trump comes back, then Biden's right. If Trump stubbornly sits out the debate, then he's missing out on an opportunity to save his flagging campaign. The best/most plausible development that can happen for Trump is that Biden gets infected and does not take it well.
If Trump comes back, then Biden's right. If Trump stubbornly sits out the debate, then he's missing out on an opportunity to save his flagging campaign. The best/most plausible development that can happen for Trump is that Biden gets infected and does not take it well.
Crossbow
Seeking Honesty and Sanity
Actually, that idea makes a good deal of sense.
After all, I have noticed a decided lack of Trump campaign spending for the last few weeks so I have been wondering just what Trump is saving his money for.
Andy_Ross
Penultimate Amazing
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Trump Tweets
The Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania would absolutely die without the jobs and dollars brought in by Fracking. Massive numbers! Now Biden & Harris, after Radical Left Dem Primaries, are trying to change their stance. Pennsylvania wants Energy and Second Amendment!
The Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania would absolutely die without the jobs and dollars brought in by Fracking. Massive numbers! Now Biden & Harris, after Radical Left Dem Primaries, are trying to change their stance. Pennsylvania wants Energy and Second Amendment!
Meadmaker
Unregistered
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I guess that's what Trump meant when he said, "Bad things happen in Philadelphia."
Andy_Ross
Penultimate Amazing
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In fairness to trump it says right there in article i2, section v of the constitution that in the event of a draw, the presidency is determined by duelling boat parades.
dirtywick
Penultimate Amazing
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I think one thing Trump has proven is that he's really bad at keeping people from getting Covid. If I was Biden I absolutely and very publicly say I wouldn't trust that this administration is capable of participating in an event where people are safe from getting infected.
pgwenthold
Penultimate Amazing
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One thing that 538 does better than most projection systems is that it recognizes that state outcomes are not independent and random. For example, when you see that Ohio and Texas polling indicates a dead heat, you could say, ok, that means that the chances of either winning is 50/50, so the probability that Trump wins both is 25%, Biden wins both is 25%, and there is a 50% chance that each wins 1.
But this is wrong. If Texas goes to Biden, then that means it's much more likely that he will also likely take Ohio, because the polling error has been to favor Trump, for whatever reason, but it is generally systematic. For example, in 2016 what happened is that Trump supporters turned out in better numbers. That was a systematic effect across the country. 538 takes that into account in its modeling
I think it's clear, if Texas goes to Biden, then you aren't going to see Trump pulling out other close states. That's the sign of a major national landslide.
Also 538 understands that "Red State / Blue State" concept is inherently wrong.
Texas's urban population has been booming and Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and especially Austin are all blue.
All cities are blue, all rural areas are red with surprising consistency. There are no Blue States or Red States but islands of high population density blue floating in a sea of low population density red.
Texas's urban population has been booming and Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and especially Austin are all blue.
All cities are blue, all rural areas are red with surprising consistency. There are no Blue States or Red States but islands of high population density blue floating in a sea of low population density red.
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