FiveThirtyEight: 15/84. I don't know how accurate the map representation on top of the page is, but either way it shows only three example outcomes with a Trump victory now. And yes, of course Trump could respond to this by just flipping the table and declaring victory. But barring some major disaster for Biden, this looks bigly promising.
It's a strange situation for sure. The 70+ and obese president sick with a respiratory disease along with much of his inner circle, the incumbent's campaign apparently running out of money, cutting TV ads strongly and badly... it'll be interesting to see how the Trump administration stumbles through the next weeks. Or for that matter, how many of them will perish.
It's also almost uncanny how Trump's fanatic support might be wavering a little, judging by the number of Republicans who don't approve of his recent Covid handling. I don't think they're about to drop him, but I've mostly seen near-fanatical support for him, no matter what he did and said. Come to think of it, the way all the Trump supporters on this forum no longer seem to identify as such, instead going "no, I totally do not support or care about Trump, I don't even like him, I just like to spend all my time here defending him" is new, too, I think. Usually they have just disappeared for a while when things got ugly, like after the midterms.
